Bulletin From The Borderlands

01 December 2022

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Analyze Educate

Haiti continues its descent into lawless Mad Max style violence. In South America, the collapse of the crypto market hits especially hard. A significant uptick in Narco violence has expanded to include rebel groups that should have laid down arms years ago.

Europe : Covered in this issue by Croatoan Report and Analyze Educate

The war in Ukraine has shifted to a new focal point, centered around the city of Bakhmut. Repeated Russian failures to take the city have resulted in scenes of carnage reminiscent of World War One. As winter sets in, and Russian casualties mount, Bakhmut is increasingly looking like the place where the future of the war will be decided.

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by Croatoan Report and the Good Political Team

Protests have ripped across China, now consuming major cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou. The CCP has sent masses of riot police and security forces into the streets to counteract what is becoming known as the “white paper revolution” a name derived from the protestors’ chosen signs, a blank canvas. This derives from an old Soviet joke, that we have included below:

A man protests in Red Square with a blank sign, and is arrested. He says to the arresting officer “What are you arresting me for? I haven’t said anything!”

“Shut it!” the officer says. “We all know what the problems are. You don’t have to write them down. You’re coming with us.”

Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by S2 Forward and the Good Political Team

Turkey resumes its planned campaigns into Kurdish held areas of Syria and Iraq. This comes after weeks of artillery bombardment of the Kurdish held areas by both the Turkish and Iranian governments. Iranian protests have continued, but have begun to shrink in size and scope as government crackdowns have expanded.

Africa : Covered in this issue by the Good Political Team

Peace continues to be an elusive goal across the African sub-continent. Ethiopia has begun a peace settlement with recently surrendered Tigray, but in the Democratic Republic of Congo, peace negotiations are occurring without the rebels being present for negotiation. In Mali, the withdrawal of French peacekeepers has opened the door for Russian Wagner mercenaries to fill the void and prop up the Malian government.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: Points of Decision

Bakhmut is now at the forefront of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Following the withdrawal of Russian forces from Kherson, Russian troops have had to redirect their operations into the Donetsk Oblast to dilute the mass of the Ukrainian southern advance. The struggle for Russian high command is the incredible density of trench lines and fortification in place around Bakhmut. Battlefield conditions have held the Russians back from the city for months, and has resulted in thousands of casualties for Russian troops.

In China, major protests have rolled across the country, responding to the CCP’s 0% COVID policy, and to widespread accusations of corruption and mismanagement by party officials. This has followed weeks of protests in smaller cities around China, which the CCP has failed to put down. These protests could represent a serious threat to the Chinese government if they should continue to expand.

The Long Term Concern: What Happens Next?

Stability is still a concern, but we are seeing movement towards decision points in Eastern Europe and Asia. The question should be what happens over the next several weeks. If Ukrainian successes continue, it could represent an increase in the food supply to Africa and the Mid East. If Ukraine’s advance should slow, food supplies could remain limited and continue to represent a significant driver of unrest. In Asia, the survival of the “white paper revolution” could mark a major risk to CCP control, and therefore to Chinese geopolitical goals around the world.

See Also:

• An unidentified fighter aircraft bombed a Wagner PMC base in Ghana.

• Protests against the CCP expand out into China’s major cities, to include Beijing and Shanghai.

• Russian artillery strikes deliberately targets Ukrainian energy infrastructure as the winter freeze sets in.

• The EU and United States consider naming the Russian Federation a state sponsor of terrorism.

• Kim Jong Un’s daughter appears in North Korean propaganda for the first time.

• Korea and Japan respond to multiple violations of their national airspace by Chinese and Russian aircraft.