Bulletin From the Borderlands

5 August 2024

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He is a graduate San Jose State University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the team lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

Robert “Bobby” Acuña is a graduate of Texas A&M University – Corpus Christi with both a BBA in Economics and a BA in Political Science. He was originally born in Subic Bay, Philippines but lived much of his life in Corpus Christi, Texas. He currently resides in Houston, Texas. Growing up in a military family, Robert developed a passion for politics as well as studying war history. Some of his earliest memories were watching World War II documentaries with his grandfather. This led him to his educational path in university. One of his favorite aspects of his collegiate career was political research. His most recent work was with The Modern Insurgent. He believes Bulletin On The Borderlands will help to fulfill that urge to understand and stay consistently aware of the geopolitical issues around the world. Outside of his interest in global affairs, Robert is an avid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioner and rugby player.

ALCON S2: A veteran of the New Zealand military intelligence community, if it walks, talks, or crawls in Asia, ALCON S2 knows about it. Cole is the preeminent source of OSINT for the Oceania and South East Asia region.

Jillian Butler: A lifelong writer and San Diego native. She received her bachelor’s degree in English and History at the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland. Upon moving back to San Diego, she received her master’s in International Relations at the University of San Diego where she centered her research around jihadi terror. She is also a contributing writer for Pop Smoke Media, American Grit, The Modern Insurgent, and Lethal Minds Journal’s Bulletin from the Borderlands. In her free time, she can be found surfing, training jiu jitsu, or improving her craft of cooking the perfect ribeye.

Zach Busch: A writer and filmmaker based in New York. After graduating from Georgetown University with a BS in International Law & Politics, Zach spent four years working in strategic communications & public diplomacy, specializing in the Middle East, North Africa, and Western Asia. He has advised foreign governments and ghostwritten on behalf of ambassadors and world leaders. He is currently completing his MFA degree in Film Directing at NYU Tisch School of the Arts. Zach's thesis film, Sagittaria, a political succession drama set in an alternate timeline, shoots in September 2024.

Sponsors

The Bulletin is brought you to by PB Abbate.

As you likely know, Lethal Minds Journal shares common ancestry with Patrol Base Abbate, one of the most impactful veteran’s outreach organizations in America. One of the ways in which we connect is through a love of the written word, a belief in the power of good writing to help give a voice to people who need to be heard, and a desire to help service members and vets connect through self-expression.

In This Issue:

The Americas: Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) and Robert Acuña.

Venezuela went to the polls last week. The official and unofficial results of the election came as no surprise, but the future of the country is uncertain as both sides mobilize their supporters. In Houston, the recent arrival of Category 5 storm Hurricane Beryl left destruction in its wake. The impact of the storm has called disaster preparedness protocols into question. 

Europe: Covered in this issue by Edwin Dudley-Taylor and Peter Andrews. 

Edwin Dudley-Taylor gives us a look at German aid packages to Ukraine and a prediction for future support. Throughout Europe, —---- details counterintelligence deficiencies that multiple nations are facing in regards to state and non-state actors.

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by John M. Larrier (Defense Bulletin).

A new U.S.-Japanese command framework sends a clear message to China, but threatens to bolster the trilateral cooperation of U.S. adversaries. A shaky deal has been reached between China and the Philippines, but it remains to be seen how long said deal will last. 

Central Asia and the Middle East: Covered in this issue by Eric Sheppler and Zach Busch.

With the recent targeted killings of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, follow-on actions and secondary/tertiary effects are likely in the immediate future. It is also likely that any negotiations and peace talks between Israel/United States and any of the groups or countries aligned against Israel in the region are indefinitely on hold. 

The assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyah on Jul 31, while he was in the Iranian capital city, is an action that almost guarantees a response from the Islamic Republic. The near simultaneous strike on top Hezbollah commander Fuadd Shukr in southern Beirut is icing on the cake. Iran, Hezbollah, and the remnants of Hamas will likely see their hand being forced in the latest tit-for-tat retaliation. 

Africa: Covered in this issue by Jillian Butler.

Infamous Somali terror group Al-Shabaab is making a comeback in the Horn of Africa. As the Al-Qaeda affiliate clashes with government forces, it has teamed up with Yemeni rebel group Ansar Allah (the Houthis) to form a special operations unit. In the Sahel, a group of military junta-led nations have broken away from the regional bloc ECOWAS to form their own alliance. This comes amid tensions with ECOWAS over recent military coups in the region.

The Highlight: Israel Kills the Top Leader of Hamas In Tehran

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick, Robert Acuña

The People v. Maduro

On July 28, Venezuela held its presidential election. Incumbent President Nicolás Maduro faced off against former Ambassador Edmundo González. Regional observers were paying close attention to the election, seeing it as the most challenging election that the regime has ever faced.

The opposition leader María Corina Machado hugs presidential candidate Edmundo González. The US has recognized González as the winner of the election. (Ronald Pena R/EPA)

Lead-Up to the Election 

President Nicolás Maduro of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela, PSUV) was initially not expected to face serious opposition. The country’s main opposition alliance, the Unitary Platform (Plataforma Unitaria; PU), chose former National Assembly member María Corina Machado to face Maduro in July. However, months prior, in June 2023, Machado was banned from holding public office for 15 years on account of her support for international sanctions against Venezuela and for her links to Juan Guaidó, the disputed acting president from 2019 to 2023. 

Machado attempted to fight the ban against her holding office, but it was upheld by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice. She is quite popular among Unitary Platform supporters, and it was for that reason that opposition leaders feared it would be difficult to capture a similarly high level of support with another candidate. Former diplomat Edmundo González, who has served as Venezuela’s Ambassador to both Argentina and Algeria, was chosen by the alliance to take Machado’s place. The fact that the relatively unknown González has been able to capture the support of PU voters is in part thanks to Machado throwing her weight behind him and campaigning on his behalf.  

Throughout the campaign, PU leaders and staff faced varying degrees of harassment from the Maduro regime and its supporters. In the lead-up to the PU primary last October, pro-Maduro militants attempted to attack opposition leaders multiple times throughout the campaign. Venezuelan authorities also issued arrest warrants for a number of González campaign staffers, leading six to take refuge in the Argentine Embassy in Caracas.

Despite the regime’s efforts to subvert the opposition, most independent polls in the lead-up to the election showed that President Maduro was deeply unpopular compared to González. 

Election Day

President Mauro’s history with democratic processes is checkered, to put it lightly. His government has been credibly accused of rigging the 2018 election in his favor. Additionally, he has continually used government forces, as well as paramilitary gangs (Colectivos) and organized crime elements, to consolidate power in Venezuela. Taking the historical record into account, few expected González to successfully triumph over Maduro in the election, despite González’s popularity. 

On election day, voters came out in droves to wait in hours-long lines at polling stations. Under Venezuelan law, polls close at 18:00 (6:00pm); however, the law also mandates that anyone who is still waiting in line at that point must be allowed to vote regardless. Once voting centers were set to close, long lines remained; at one station, the wait time for voters still in line at 18:00 was estimated to be another five hours. 

As expected, exit polls predicted a major victory for González. Also as expected, the National Election Council (CNE) was not transparent with the vote counting process. The Council blocked all opposition and independent observers from entering the premises to oversee vote tallying. This left the CNE, which is controlled by the Maduro regime, with hours to produce potentially fabricated election results. 

The CNE declared President Maduro the victor of the election with 51.2% of the vote. González came in second place with 44.2%. Maduro quickly celebrated his victory, while the opposition claimed fraud. On Tuesday evening, González and Machado released election data that they claim to be the true results. The currently unverified results show González receiving 67% of the vote, as well as earning a majority of votes in every state. Maduro received 30% of the vote, according to these results.  

Both Sides Mobilize

Civil unrest began soon after the announcement of results from the CNE. Influential PSUV leaders called for their supporters to get out on the streets to “defend the vote”. Armed Colectivos deployed to multiple areas as well. At one polling station in the state of Tachira where a number of pro-opposition demonstrators were located, Colectivos killed one man after the station was attacked with firearms and “incendiary devices”. Despite the death in Tachira, the first night of unrest was relatively calm compared to the next two nights.

Masked members of a “colectivo”, or pro-government cells attend a rally in Caracas on January 7, 2019. (Yuri Cortez, AFP/Getty Images

On Monday afternoon, pro-opposition demonstrators came out in large numbers across the country. In Caracas, clashes were recorded between members of the Bolivarian National Guard (GNB) and opposition supporters. As night fell, local law enforcement and soldiers were deployed alongside GNB personnel and Colectivos. There were some instances of local police, soldiers, and GNB troops siding with demonstrators. However, violent clashes erupted in many cities and towns across Venezuela. Many on both sides were beaten, molotov cocktails were thrown, and children were shot. Some street gangs publicly sided with the opposition, including Tren del Ilano in Guarico state, which engaged in multiple gunfights with pro-government forces. According to the AFP, the civilian death toll was at least 11 by daybreak on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, demonstrators in Caracas joined González and Machado by the thousands for a peaceful protest parade through the city. However, violent clashes continued throughout the night, leading to the deaths of multiple people.  

The CNE continues to claim that Maduro was the legitimate winner of the election; however they have provided no polling data nearly a week after polls closed. With the government firmly in the grasp of Maduro and an increase in violence around the country, Machado recently announced that she has gone into hiding for the time being. Regardless, opposition protests are expected to continue, with multiple events planned for Saturday. 

Hurricane Beryl’s Strike on Houston Calls Disaster Readiness Into Question

On July 8^th, 2024, Hurricane Beryl slammed into the coast of Port O’Connor, Texas. The hurricane had lost power coming into the Texas coast, decreasing from a Category 5 to a Category 1 before making landfall. Due to the decrease in power, many thought the destruction would be minimal. This was terribly mistaken. Beryl ended up taking a northerly track into Houston, Texas, where nearly 3 million people would be left without power. It is estimated that the damages from Beryl will cost between $28 and $32 billion to repair. 

The Initial Aftermath

Upon the first day, 3 million people were left without power. The following day, 2 million were still without power. Many of these residents remained without power for more than a week. This caused people with the means of travel to evacuate from Houston until the power was restored. The situation was becoming grim after a few days of lack of power. Many residents residing on the east side of Houston resorted to collecting spoiled food from dumpsters to eat. There were also reports of looting in the days following the storm, but those reports were few in number. Many Houston residents worked to help others in need, sharing their homes with those that did not have power when power was restored at their residences. Many individuals helped with rescuing individuals from flooded vehicles, as many of the roads in Houston were left completely submerged. 

In total, eight individuals died due to falling debris and drowning in high flood waters upon the impact of the storm, while another twenty-eight died from medical complications due to prolonged lack of power and the extreme heat that followed. 

Inequality in Power Restoration 

It should be noted that power in the city was not restored equally for all; many individuals in historically lower-income or gentrified areas have a consistently degrading infrastructure which, during and following the storm, prevented electrical companies from quickly restoring power to these residents. This was also seen in new housing districts, many of which were constructed quickly to meet the demand of Houston transplants. Power in some of these areas took up to a week and a half before being restored. 

Other Natural Disaster Events

Hurricane Beryl has joined the long list of natural disasters that have devastated the Houston area in a very short time. On May 16^th, the city of Houston was hit with three tornadoes, which caused $1.2 billion worth of damage and left some residents without power for nearly two weeks. Many of those hit hardest by Beryl were just beginning to get lives back together from the impact of those tornadoes. 

Major Population Growth

Houston is one of the fastest-growing cities in America. The Greater Houston area has a population of 7.34 million people and counting. This is putting an unsustainable burden on the city’s infrastructure – a burden that is mostevident during natural disasters in which roads flood completely, utilities cease functioning, and city officials are left without a proper contingency plan to alleviate pressing issues. It forces one to question the readiness, disaster planning, and quality of infrastructure in other major U.S. cities. 

FEMA’s Financial Issues

Due to the growing frequency of natural disasters occurring in the U.S., the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) could run the risk of running out of disaster aid this hurricane season. This is coming off of 2023, which FEMA claims saw the highest number of billion-dollar disasters to date – totaling at the estimated cost of $92.9 billion. This would push FEMA to the point of only conducting minimal activities, ie. lifesaving or life-sustaining activities. Without sufficient disaster aid to go around, FEMA would not have the ability to conduct infrastructure repair or hazard mitigation. FEMA would also no longer be able to issue any financial assistance to disaster survivors. 

Readiness for Natural Disasters

With very real issues surrounding FEMA’s finances, as well as the degradation of U.S. infrastructure, how many major natural disasters can the U.S. handle given the state it’s in? Furthermore, it brings one to question the readiness of major U.S. cities in the handling of issues stemming from major natural disasters. All of these issues should be in high priority with the current administration as well as the administration to follow. One should also question the ability of state and local governments to effectively work with federal entities. The hurricane season has just begun, and it is predicted to be a very busy one – not to mention other very real dangers of forest fires, earthquakes, or tornadoes that could arise as well. 

Looking Forward

The near future of Venezuela is unclear. This round of civil unrest and the government reaction to it are both unprecedented in the country. Opposition leaders are urging their supporters to remain energized, but refrain from violence. This is easier said than done as government and pro-regime forces are likely to continue to respond to opposition supporters with violence of many sorts. To put it bluntly, the election is over and if the opposition seeks to ever take power, the ballot box will not suffice.