Bulletin From the Borderlands

22 October 2024

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He is a graduate San Jose State University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the team lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands.

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

Robert “Bobby” Acuña is a graduate of Texas A&M University – Corpus Christi with both a BBA in Economics and a BA in Political Science. He was originally born in Subic Bay, Philippines but lived much of his life in Corpus Christi, Texas. He currently resides in Houston, Texas. Growing up in a military family, Robert developed a passion for politics as well as studying war history. Some of his earliest memories were watching World War II documentaries with his grandfather. This led him to his educational path in university. One of his favorite aspects of his collegiate career was political research. His most recent work was with The Modern Insurgent. He believes Bulletin On The Borderlands will help to fulfill that urge to understand and stay consistently aware of the geopolitical issues around the world. Outside of his interest in global affairs, Robert is an avid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioner and rugby player.

Edwin Dudley Taylor: An Undergraduate at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. Studying International Relations and History he has a precise focus on African and Middle Eastern affairs and politics. Additionally he has worked as an intelligence analyst for GreyDynamics and also as has a role as the Senior Editor at The Modern Insurgent.

Jillian Butler: A lifelong writer and San Diego native. She received her bachelor’s degree in English and History at the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland. Upon moving back to San Diego, she received her master’s in International Relations at the University of San Diego where she centered her research around jihadi terror. She is also a contributing writer for Pop Smoke Media, American Grit, The Modern Insurgent, and Lethal Minds Journal’s Bulletin from the Borderlands. In her free time, she can be found surfing, training jiu jitsu, or improving her craft of cooking the perfect ribeye.

Zach Busch: A writer and filmmaker based in New York. After graduating from Georgetown University with a BS in International Law & Politics, Zach spent four years working in strategic communications & public diplomacy, specializing in the Middle East, North Africa, and Western Asia. He has advised foreign governments and ghostwritten on behalf of ambassadors and world leaders. He is currently completing his MFA degree in Film Directing at NYU Tisch School of the Arts. Zach's thesis film, Sagittaria, a political succession drama set in an alternate timeline, shoots in September 2024.

Sponsors

The Bulletin is brought you to by PB Abbate.

As you likely know, Lethal Minds Journal shares common ancestry with Patrol Base Abbate, one of the most impactful veteran’s outreach organizations in America. One of the ways in which we connect is through a love of the written word, a belief in the power of good writing to help give a voice to people who need to be heard, and a desire to help service members and vets connect through self-expression.

In This Issue:

The Americas: Covered in this issue by Rick “Rickynomics” Alonzo.

El Salvador has changed drastically in recent years, with crime falling to historic levels and the economy showing positive signs. These shifts could affect over 200,000 Salvadoran nationals in the United States and El Salvador by extension. Additionally, Rick Alonzo gives us a look at Venezuela’s efforts to annex two-thirds of its neighbor, Guyana.

Europe: Covered in this issue by John M. Larrier and Jillian Butler.

John Larrier gives us a look at Iran-Russian strategic cooperation, which has increased greatly amid the Russo-Ukrainian War. Additionally, Jillian Butler details how the migrant crisis in Europe is feeding illicit economies in Northern Africa.

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by John M. Larrier (Defense Bulletin).

All eyes once again look towards China. The PRC continues provocations around the island of Taiwan, seeking to flex its muscle and assert its willingness to unify the island with the mainland by force. To the north, Japan continues to revitalize and grow its Self-Defense Force in the nation’s greatest military buildup since the Second World War. Competing territorial claims, military deployments, and increased Sino-Russian cooperation has the island nation preparing for conflict with both eastern powers, as it once did 80 years ago.

Central Asia and the Middle East: Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick and Jillian Butler.

As the war in Gaza rages on, despite the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the invasion of Lebanon has expanded. Israel find itself in a two-front war that has the potential to expand even further. To the east, the BLA, an insurgent group based in Pakistan continues its campaign against Chinese economic interests. The ethnic-Baloch group seeks to threaten a key part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Africa: Covered in this issue by Jillian Butler.

Somalia’s war against Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab. As the group’s activity has increased in recent months, Somalia’s tactics must change. In conjunction with its African allies and Western allies, counter-insurgency operations must be implemented and adapted for the country.

The Highlight: Japan’s Military Grows and Rearms

The Americas

Rick “Rickynomics” Alonzo

What Happens to El Salvador if It Gets Too Good?

Rick "Rickynomics" Alonzo

El Salvador is on the verge of a major transformation. Violent crime is down, international investors are showing serious interest, and the local economy is gaining momentum. With safer streets and growing economic stability, the driving forces behind decades of mass migration to the U.S. are rapidly fading. If El Salvador gets too good, the United States may no longer see a need to offer humanitarian visas like Temporary Protected Status (TPS), reshaping migration patterns and triggering a wave of returning Salvadorans. This shift promises opportunity but also carries significant risks—especially if both nations fail to adapt quickly.

US-El Salvador Immigration Dynamics

For years, migration from El Salvador to the U.S. was fueled by violence and poverty. But as crime plummets and foreign investment increases, migration flows will reverse. Instead of fleeing, Salvadorans will start coming back home. With over 239,000 Salvadorans holding TPS set to expire in March 2025, many will face a choice: stay in the U.S. without legal status or return to a homeland that's suddenly full of promise. And they are ready—62% of Salvadorans abroad say they want to return, with 18% already planning their move. A safer El Salvador won't just stop emigration; it will spark a wave of return migration. However, this reversal will pressure the country's urban infrastructure, labor market, and public services in ways it hasn't experienced before.

The return of thousands of Salvadorans presents immediate challenges. El Salvador must expand housing, healthcare, and education systems to avoid bottlenecks. Construction already accounts for 20% of GDP, but the demand for housing will surge as families relocate. If the government fails to act fast, cities could face overcrowding, rent spikes, and social unrest. Returnees bring skills and capital, but they also need jobs. A sudden influx of workers could drive short-term unemployment, especially if returning professionals outpace available opportunities. At the same time, remittances—one of the country's key financial lifelines—will shrink as fewer Salvadorans send money from abroad. Families dependent on these funds will feel the squeeze, creating new economic pressures.

In the U.S., industries heavily reliant on immigrant labor, like agriculture, construction, and hospitality, will feel the loss. With fewer Salvadorans arriving, labor shortages could push wages higher, further straining sectors already grappling with inflation. The U.S. government will need to pivot from humanitarian visas toward economic visa programs to address these gaps. Diplomatic coordination with El Salvador will be critical to ensure a smooth transition and prevent workforce disruptions. Both countries must be prepared to adapt their immigration policies to a new reality—one where asylum seekers are replaced by skilled workers.

The social impact of this migration shift will be profound. Families long separated by borders will finally reunite, strengthening community ties and restoring fractured relationships. However, the return of second-generation immigrants may not be seamless. Some may struggle to integrate into a culture they know only from stories, creating potential friction within communities. Reintegration programs will be essential to ease these transitions and prevent alienation. Communities that once relied on migration as a survival strategy will need to find new ways to thrive. Local resilience, not remittance flows, will become the backbone of economic stability.

Time is running out for El Salvador to get ahead of these changes. If the government can scale up infrastructure, encourage entrepreneurship, and create jobs, the country could turn this migration reversal into a growth engine. But if it fails, reverse migration could overwhelm public services, fuel social unrest, and spark new waves of instability. For the U.S., adjusting immigration policies to meet labor demands will require political will and strategic foresight. Humanitarian visa programs must give way to economic visas to fill workforce gaps without triggering public backlash.

El Salvador's rise presents both countries with a unique opportunity—but also a high-stakes challenge. If managed correctly, this shift could be a success story of economic revival and regional stability. But if either nation fumbles, reverse migration chaos could take root, leading to new economic and social crises. This isn't just about migration; it's about managing success. Without swift action, El Salvador's newfound prosperity could quickly become its next big problem. Both nations need to stay ahead of the curve, or they'll find themselves playing catch-up in a game they can't afford to lose.

Analyst Comment

El Salvador may need to negotiate an appeasement deal with the U.S. to manage the potential destabilization caused by the mass return of Salvadorans after TPS expires. Beyond the 239,000 TPS holders, thousands of Salvadorans living undocumented in the U.S. are unaccounted for, meaning the scale of the returning population could be significantly larger than expected. Without intervention, this surge could overwhelm El Salvador's housing, healthcare, and labor markets, leading to unemployment, rising poverty, and social instability.

A phased repatriation schedule or extended TPS eligibility could buy time for El Salvador to implement reintegration programs and expand infrastructure. In exchange, the U.S. could offer economic support packages or trade incentives to help absorb the returning population. From the U.S. perspective, delaying deportations would also avoid worsening labor shortages in key industries, such as agriculture, where Salvadoran migrants play a crucial role.

Failure to negotiate such a deal would introduce risks for both countries. Many undocumented Salvadorans might choose to remain illegally in the U.S. rather than return to uncertain conditions, further complicating U.S. immigration enforcement. Simultaneously, an uncoordinated influx of returnees could destabilize El Salvador, reversing recent economic gains and increasing social tensions. A coordinated strategy would mitigate these risks, ensuring an orderly transition for both nations.

Venezuela’s Push to Annex Essequibo, Guyana

Rick “Rickynomics” Alonzo

Venezuela’s ambitions to annex Guyana’s Essequibo region face significant obstacles due to legal disputes, potential sanctions, military limitations, and diplomatic repercussions. While oil reserves in the area fuel Venezuela’s desire, the geopolitical landscape, including international legal challenges and strong regional alliances, makes annexation highly complex and potentially disastrous for Venezuela's already fragile economy and political standing.

Disputes Over Essequibo

Venezuela’s ambition to annex Guyana’s Essequibo region is far from new, but its urgency has grown in recent years. The dispute goes back to the 19th century when Venezuela first rejected the 1899 arbitration that awarded the Essequibo to British Guiana (now Guyana). Fast-forward to today, Essequibo, which spans two-thirds of Guyana’s territory, is once again in Venezuela’s sights, particularly after ExxonMobil’s 2015 discovery of massive offshore oil reserves in Guyana’s waters. For a country like Venezuela, whose economy is crumbling under hyperinflation, mismanagement, and international sanctions, the Essequibo represents a much-needed lifeline—potentially a game-changer for its struggling oil industry. The stakes are high, and so are the risks.

Venezuela's oil industry, once its economic engine, is a shadow of its former self. Mismanagement and sanctions have devastated production. Essequibo, with its resource wealth, could offer a way out. If Venezuela could gain control over this region, the potential oil revenues might help it rebuild an oil sector that’s been on life support for years. In this context, annexing Essequibo isn’t just about territorial claims; it's about economic survival.

However, the road to annexation is anything but straightforward. Internationally, Venezuela’s claim is being scrutinized by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which ruled in 2020 that it had jurisdiction to hear the dispute. This was a major blow to Venezuela, which preferred a bilateral settlement with Guyana. Any aggressive action to annex the region would place Venezuela in direct violation of international law, opening the door for legal sanctions and further damaging its already fragile international standing. Guyana, on the other hand, enjoys strong international backing from key players like CARICOM, the European Union, and the United States, all of whom have strategic and economic interests in the region, particularly given ExxonMobil's significant investments. For Venezuela, acting on its ambitions could lead to severe diplomatic isolation, with economic consequences far outweighing any potential gains.

Venezuela is already under heavy sanctions from the U.S. and other countries due to its human rights record and anti-democratic practices. Attempting to forcibly annex the Essequibo could bring a fresh round of sanctions, likely crippling Venezuela’s already fragile economy even further. With the oil market shifting and Venezuela already struggling to maintain its limited production capacity, the last thing it needs is more restrictions that cut off access to global markets and investors.

Even if Venezuela were to attempt a more forceful approach, its military, while one of the strongest in the region, is not in a position to sustain a conflict. Years of economic crisis have left the Venezuelan military underfunded, with outdated equipment and low morale. Guyana might not have the military might of Venezuela, but it has strong alliances. CARICOM and Brazil, both vocal in support of Guyana’s territorial integrity, would not sit idly by. The U.S. could also step in due to its significant economic interests in Guyana’s burgeoning oil industry, particularly ExxonMobil's involvement. Any conflict could see Venezuela facing not just Guyana but a broader coalition of regional and global powers.

The geopolitical landscape surrounding Essequibo makes Venezuela’s ambitions even harder to realize. The U.S., with its strategic interests in Guyana’s oil sector, is unlikely to let Venezuela seize control without intervention. ExxonMobil’s role in the region means that the U.S. has both an economic and geopolitical interest in preventing any disruption to Guyana’s sovereignty. This complicates Venezuela’s path to annexation, as it would be going up against Guyana and powerful international interests.

Regional actors also play a crucial role. Guyana’s membership in CARICOM means it has the backing of a coalition of Caribbean nations. Brazil, the heavyweight of South America, has also backed Guyana in the territorial dispute, further limiting Venezuela’s room to maneuver. Any escalation by Venezuela could trigger a coordinated response from these regional powers, making a military solution infeasible for Venezuela. Oil diplomacy adds yet another layer of complexity. 

In summary, while Venezuela may have its eyes on Essequibo’s rich resources, the reality is that annexation is highly unlikely. Legal challenges, diplomatic isolation, military constraints, and the involvement of powerful international players like the U.S. all stand in the way of Venezuela achieving its goal. Any aggressive move toward annexation would likely bring disastrous consequences for Venezuela, further deepening its economic crisis and damaging its global standing.

Analyst Comment

Venezuela cannot afford to let Guyana’s Essequibo oil become a reality—it’s existential. With its own oil sector crumbling under sanctions and mismanagement, any major foreign investment in Guyana’s oil would send Venezuela’s economy past the point of no return. If oil companies start drilling in Essequibo, the massive reserves could make Guyana a regional powerhouse, completely overshadowing Venezuela's failing oil industry. Guyana's success would not just be a blow to Venezuela’s pride, but it would also destroy any hope of economic recovery. For Venezuela, letting ExxonMobil and others fully exploit Essequibo more than they already have is the equivalent of signing its own economic death warrant.

Instead of direct military action—which is off the table due to Venezuela’s underfunded and weakened forces—expect Venezuela to launch aggressive disinformation campaigns and lawfare to dissuade foreign companies from investing. Venezuela doesn't need to take over Essequibo; it just needs to muddy the waters enough to stall drilling and keep investors wary. The goal is to delay Guyana long enough for Venezuela to squeeze out whatever oil it can. Meanwhile, Guyana, backed by the U.S., CARICOM, and Brazil, holds all the cards at the negotiating table. Venezuela can’t win this with force, but it can buy time with tactics that slow down Guyana’s rise without risking a military conflict it’s bound to lose.