Bulletin From The Borderlands

15 February 2024

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He is a graduate San Jose State University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the team lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Callisto Report: The Calisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

ALCON S2: A veteran of the New Zealand military intelligence community, if it walks, talks, or crawls in Asia, ALCON S2 knows about it. Cole is the preeminent source of OSINT for the Oceania and South East Asia region.

Jillian Butler: A lifelong writer and San Diego native. She received her bachelor’s degree in English and History at the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland. Upon moving back to San Diego, she received her master’s in International Relations at the University of San Diego where she centered her research around jihadi terror. She is also a contributing writer for Pop Smoke Media, American Grit, The Modern Insurgent, and Lethal Minds Journal’s Bulletin from the Borderlands. In her free time, she can be found surfing, training jiu jitsu, or improving her craft of cooking the perfect ribeye.

Sponsors

The Bulletin is brought you to by PB Abbate.

As you likely know, Lethal Minds Journal shares common ancestry with Patrol Base Abbate, one of the most impactful veteran’s outreach organizations in America. One of the ways in which we connect is through a love of the written word, a belief in the power of good writing to help give a voice to people who need to be heard, and a desire to help service members and vets connect through self-expression.

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate).

The US military recruiting crisis continues with another branch taking steps to increase its manpower. After the Navy discarded a high school diploma or GED equivalent requirement for new recruits in January, the Air Force is seeking to bring back veterans in priority jobs. However, the lack of incentives for these experienced airmen to return leaves doubt as to how successful the program will be.

Europe : Meridian News

Farmers across Europe, spanning from Poland to France and Germany, are staging protests against the European Union's climate regulations and the surge of inexpensive grain imports from Ukraine. They argue that these measures are detrimental to their livelihoods, making it increasingly challenging for them to sustain their farms from an economic and regulatory standpoint. The recent actions by Polish farmers, who seized and dumped Ukrainian grain, is representative of frustration felt across the European Union. While the Polish government is showing sympathy towards the farmers, tensions persist as the EU grapples with addressing their concerns amidst impending parliamentary elections. Concurrently, tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan escalate as skirmishes along the border result left four Armenian soldiers dead and one injured, further complicating peace negotiations. Azerbaijan's accusations of EU bias and allegations of French military support to Armenia add layers of complexity to the situation. The fragility of the region in a decades long conflict underscores the ongoing instability in the region, with peace talks at a standstill and violence continuing to escalate.

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by John M. Larrier (Defense Bulletin)

The first part of a 2 part piece on how the Philippines is trying to upgrade its military and strengthen its alliance with the US to deter China’s aggression, but China has superior capabilities and is expanding its presence in the region, especially in the strategic Bashi Channel. The text also suggests some ways for the Philippines to defend its interests and uphold a rules-based order in the region.

Central Asia and the Mid East: John M. Larrier (Defense Bulletin)

The U.S. announces that they conducted a cyber attack against the Iranian spy ship the MV Behshad. Armenia warns of invasion by Azerbaijan, and Egypt prepares for a surge of refugees at the Rafah crossing. 

Africa: Covered in this issue by the Expeditionary Intelligence Group, Jillian Butler

The recent surge in support from Middle Eastern non-state actors for Muslim militias in Sudan, particularly the Peoples Resistance Brigade, as they clash with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) aligned with the Sudanese government. It highlights the historical context of Sudan's tribal militias, rooted in decades of marginalization and fueled by socio-economic disparities and religious fervor. The involvement of Middle Eastern actors, motivated by strategic interests and ideology, is discussed as well. The Sudanese government, led by President Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, maneuvers between leveraging these militias to counterbalance the RSF's dominance while avoiding exacerbating intra-governmental tensions and ethnic divisions. 

Shipping near the Horn of Africa once again sees a rise in Somali Pirate activities. India plays a greater role in anti-piracy operations. 

The Highlight: Africa’s Growing Strategic Importance

Non-state actors in Africa, influenced by peer actors in the Middle East continue to wage an ideological and strategic war in Sudan. The Sudanese government has struggled to contain these groups as well as the groups fighting on their behalf. 

Note from the Bulletin team:

Looking for the Strategic Forecast?

We've decided to implement a stand-alone long form Strategic Forecast that will be able to cover the multitude of conflicts and developments covered and the implications for the geopolitical sphere. 

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick

Please Come Back, Signed USAF      

For the past few years, the US military has been experiencing major personnel shortages. These shortages are caused by shortfalls in recruitment and retention, and are affecting most of the armed services. Each service has gone about addressing these issues differently. For their part, the Air Force is looking to retirees. 

Shortfalls Across the Board

The three largest branches of the armed forces are currently experiencing recruitment issues. The Army, Navy, and Air Force have missed their yearly goals by thousands of new enlisted recruits. For fiscal year 2022, the Army missed its goal by 25%. During the same time, the Navy made its goal, but depleted its Delayed Entry Program, making it more difficult to “make mission” in FY2023. In that fiscal year, the service missed their goal for new active duty enlisted recruits by 20%. They also missed their goals for enlisted reservists by 35% and active duty officers by 18%.   

The Army has tried to make-up for the shortfall. In 2022, the Army briefly dropped the requirement for potential recruits to have either a high school diploma or GED equivalent before enlisting. That policy change was rescinded after less than a month due to widespread backlash. The service has also increased enlistment and reenlistment bonuses in the hopes of increasing and retaining its ranks. Despite its work towards resolving the crisis, the Army still fell short of its goal for 65,000 new recruits by 10% in FY2023. The service currently has roughly 452,000 soldiers as of the start of FY2024, the lowest manpower level since 1940.  

The Navy has also looked for solutions for its manpower issue. Last month, the service went the same route as the Army briefly did. Navy recruits are no longer required to have a high school diploma or GED equivalent. So far, the policy change has lasted longer than it did in the Army and recruiters are actively promoting the change on social media. Individuals attempting to enlist in the Navy without a diploma or GED will still need to score at least 50 out of 99 on the Armed Services Qualification Test. However, in 2022, the Navy also opted to allow those with low scores on the test to join as well. This year marks the first year since 2000 that the Navy has allowed individuals without education credentials to join.     

Air Force Approach

The Air Force has suffered just as its sister branches have. In FY2023, the service missed its enlisted active duty recruiting goal by 11%. The Department of the Air Force is “cautiously optimistic” that it will meet its recruitment goals for FY2024. However, there are still major personnel shortages in “critical roles” that must be filled. Jobs such as Pilot, Security Forces, Air Battle Manager, and others are being specifically targeted by Air Force leadership.

In recent years, the branch has notoriously faced a major pilot shortage. For the last several years, the overall shortage has hovered around 2,000 pilots. The Air Force trained 1,350 new pilots in FY2023, which was an increase from FY2022; but still missed the goal by 120 pilots. Steps have been taken in the past to address this issue; including the service offering as much as a $50,000 per year bonus to experienced pilots that sign an additional contract. Air Force pilots can receive as much as $600,000 for a 12-year contract. Although the pay would depend on the type of aircraft flown by the pilot. .     

Late last year, the Air Force raised its maximum enlistment age from 39 to 42-years-old. However, this change will not have a major impact on manpower issues as it is expected to bring an additional 50 recruits each year. Also in 2023, the service loosened restrictions in regards to body fat. Potential recruits can now have fat making up 26% of their Body Mass Index (BMI) for men and 36% for women. The American Council on Exercise says that obesity begins at 25% of BMI for men and 32% for women. The Air Force believes this move will bring in 50 to 100 more recruits each month.

Last week, the service took an additional step to alleviate the manpower crisis. The Secretary of the Air Force, Frank Kendall, has reimplemented the Voluntary Retired Return to Active Duty Program (VRRAD). This means that up to 1,000 retired officers and enlisted personnel can return to active duty to fill “critical roles”.  The VRRAD program seeks to “close the gap against our peer competitors”, according to Lt. Gen. Caroline Miller. 

The VRRAD program was first launched in 2017, with a focus on bringing back retired pilots to alleviate the shortage. It was closed in 2020 after receiving 300 applications and only accepting 120 of them.

Retired airmen seeking to return to duty must apply by January 31st, 2026 and may only serve for an additional four years at most. Airmen that do return will not be eligible for promotion. They may also be subject to a permanent change of their duty station (PCS) and can face a termination of their contract if they refuse a PCS. Additionally, returning pilots will also not be eligible for aviation bonuses