Bulletin From the Borderlands

17 September 2024

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He is a graduate San Jose State University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the team lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands.

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

Robert “Bobby” Acuña is a graduate of Texas A&M University – Corpus Christi with both a BBA in Economics and a BA in Political Science. He was originally born in Subic Bay, Philippines but lived much of his life in Corpus Christi, Texas. He currently resides in Houston, Texas. Growing up in a military family, Robert developed a passion for politics as well as studying war history. Some of his earliest memories were watching World War II documentaries with his grandfather. This led him to his educational path in university. One of his favorite aspects of his collegiate career was political research. His most recent work was with The Modern Insurgent. He believes Bulletin On The Borderlands will help to fulfill that urge to understand and stay consistently aware of the geopolitical issues around the world. Outside of his interest in global affairs, Robert is an avid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioner and rugby player.

Edwin Dudley Taylor: An Undergraduate at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. Studying International Relations and History he has a precise focus on African and Middle Eastern affairs and politics. Additionally he has worked as an intelligence analyst for GreyDynamics and also as has a role as the Senior Editor at The Modern Insurgent.

Jillian Butler: A lifelong writer and San Diego native. She received her bachelor’s degree in English and History at the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland. Upon moving back to San Diego, she received her master’s in International Relations at the University of San Diego where she centered her research around jihadi terror. She is also a contributing writer for Pop Smoke Media, American Grit, The Modern Insurgent, and Lethal Minds Journal’s Bulletin from the Borderlands. In her free time, she can be found surfing, training jiu jitsu, or improving her craft of cooking the perfect ribeye.

Zach Busch: A writer and filmmaker based in New York. After graduating from Georgetown University with a BS in International Law & Politics, Zach spent four years working in strategic communications & public diplomacy, specializing in the Middle East, North Africa, and Western Asia. He has advised foreign governments and ghostwritten on behalf of ambassadors and world leaders. He is currently completing his MFA degree in Film Directing at NYU Tisch School of the Arts. Zach's thesis film, Sagittaria, a political succession drama set in an alternate timeline, shoots in September 2024.

Sponsors

The Bulletin is brought you to by PB Abbate.

As you likely know, Lethal Minds Journal shares common ancestry with Patrol Base Abbate, one of the most impactful veteran’s outreach organizations in America. One of the ways in which we connect is through a love of the written word, a belief in the power of good writing to help give a voice to people who need to be heard, and a desire to help service members and vets connect through self-expression.

In This Issue:

The Americas: Covered in this issue by Robert Acuña and Rick “Rickynomics” Alonzo.

Venezuela is at the center of our over coverage this issue. As people continue to flee the country by the millions, organized crime has fled with them. Tren de Aragua (TdA), a powerful and violent prison gang in Venezuela, has expanded its operations in areas with large diaspora populations. In recent years, the gang had established a presence in countries such as Colombia and Peru. Now, TdA has a foothold in the United States, gaining widespread attention for its operations in Aurora, Colorado. Additionally, Rick Alonzo gives us a view of Venezuelan-Cuban relations. As the former’s oil production continues to drop, the latter is put in a difficult scenario. The two nations are important allies that value cooperation, but friendship doesn’t produce oil, and Cuba needs oil. 

Europe: Covered in this issue by Edwin Dudley-Taylor and Robert Acuña.

The topic of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s so-called “red lines” continues to drive debate regarding the Russo-Ukrainian War. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksyy is testing those red lines as his forces continue their assault in Russia’s Kursk Oblast and courts the West for donations of long-range munitions to strike Russian territory. In Germany, another Islamic State-claimed attack left multiple people dead and others injured. The Islamic State continues to take advantage of the Israeli assault on Gaza, and the West’s support of it, to radicalize Islamic migrant populations in Europe.   

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by John M. Larrier (Defense Bulletin).

Events in Bangladesh have brought to light some of the strategic miscommunication between the United States and India. India’s strategic outlook, ever ambiguous, and the U.S. inability to synchronize with said outlook have been the source of numerous hiccups in U.S. strategic planning for South Asia. As U.S.-Japanese strategic cooperation deepens, the Japanese Navy has reached a significant milestone that will greatly enhance their ability to project power in the Western Pacific.

Central Asia and the Middle East: Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick, John Larrier, and Jillian Butler.

In preparation for the coming war against Hezbollah, Israel launched a raid into Syria targeting a major weapons facility. In Afghanistan, the Taliban has increased their measures at removing women from the public eye as the group reaches its third anniversary of regaining power in Kabul (Reader discretion is advised). In Iraq, the Biden Administration has agreed to a phased plan with Iraq that will see the withdrawal of U.S forces from the country in the coming years.

Africa: Covered in this issue by Jillian Butler.

Islamist campaigns continue to terrorize the African continent. In Burkina Faso, a local Al-Qaeda affiliate claimed an attack in the country’s north-central region. Militants killed anywhere from 200-500 civilians and soldiers in the town that serves as a last line of defense before the capital of Ouagadougou. In Somalia, Al-Shabaab launched another attack in the capital of Mogadishu, killing dozens of people.

The Highlight: Migrant Gangs in Aurora, Colorado

The Americas

Robert Acuña, Rick “Rickynomics” Alonzo

Migrant Gangs in Aurora, Colorado: Crisis or Misinformation

Robert Acuña 

Hidden surveillance footage recorded at The Edge at Lowry in Aurora, CO shows a group of armed Latino men has gone viral over the internet. Many have made claims that this group of individuals are members of a Venezuelan street gang called Tren de Aragua. Various people sharing this viral video have stated that the gang has taken over The Edge at Lowry apartment complex and plan on taking over more and more with the goal of overthrowing the landlords so that the residents will now pay rent to the gang themselves. Furthermore, many individuals who have shared the video have made claims that the Tren De Aragua or TdA plan on taking over more apartment complexes around Aurora and the greater Denver area. 

Who are Tren de Aragua?

Tren de Aragua or TdA is a Venezuelan prison gang formed in Tocoron prison in Aragua, Venezuela. It is led by Hector “Nino” Guerrero who escaped from Tocoron prison with other powerful gang leaders. TdA, Spanish for “Aragua Train” gained their prominence into organized crime by gaining control of smuggling routes out of Venezuela. While TdA was previously involved in drug trafficking, the organization decided to decrease their involvement in drugs with primary focus on human trafficking. With the large numbers of people wishing to leave Venezuela, TdA are known to force female migrants into sex trafficking. The organization is known to run extortion rings of businesses. The organization is known to have a presence in Peru, Chile, and neighboring Colombia. With activity reported in New York and Colorado, they now have a presence in the US. It also must be noted that the TdA name spreads fear in the community that criminals are operating in as it is within the Venezuelan migrant community. Many of these criminals could simply be saying they are TdA while not actually affiliated to force compliance of the people they are extorting. Truthfully it is very hard to determine how large is the true TdA presence in the US. 

What are Aurora Government Officials Saying?

There have been a lot of mixed statements on what is occurring at The Edge at Lowry. Aurora officials are stating that the allegations that the city is unsafe and overrun by TdA is grossly exaggerated. Officials have admitted that there have been crimes and arrests attributed to people that claim affiliation with TdA, but it is not as widespread as the media and social media have been conveying. All the alleged TdA activity is noted to be within a few apartment complexes in which the Venezuelan migrant community resides. The apartment complexes in question are in such despair with residents living in conditions with black mold, collapsing ceilings, and some units lacking running water. Trash is littered throughout the complexes as sanitation is not being facilitated by the owners. Residents have informed officials that the management company has ceased to collect rental payments and that the conditions began deteriorating from that point on. The management company, CBZ Management, was informed by the City of Aurora that residents will be evicted and apartments will be closed if they do not begin to collect rental payments and start to maintain the properties. 

Statement from Residents

Long time residents have been interviewed on various vlogs who have gone to Aurora to see the issue for themselves. Long time residents who have been residing in the apartment complexes before the arrival of the Venezuelan migrants stated that the area has always been a hotbed for gang activity. The arrival of the Venezuelan migrants just added another faction of gang activity to an already criminally active location. Many of the Venezuelan migrants who have been interviewed have either refused to talk due to their legal status. Some that spoke had to have their identities concealed due to legal status and fear of repercussions. Many of those residents confirmed gang activity and stated that it is no different than what they had fled in Venezuela. As stated earlier, residents’ main concern was the lack of maintenance that management company had done on the complexes which they believe has given power to various gangs residing in the area, not necessarily only TdA. Some residents allege that the rumor of the complete gang takeover of the complex by Venezuelan gangs was spread by the CBZ Management in order to justify the lack of repairs and maintenance. 

Outside of the Apartments

Legitimate organized criminal incidents linked to TdA in the US are sparse. Many of the incidents allegedly claim that those arrested are linked to TdA but it is unsubstantiated. As stated earlier, many times individuals will claim to be TdA to strike fear in the community. Also, those who are potentially victims of TdA are reluctant to come forward to authorities due to legal status. Two incidents stand out as potential TdA related incidents. In 2023, Bernardo Raul Casto-Mata, a migrant Venezuelan teen, shot two police officers in New York. Castro-Mata is said to have tattoos that are associated with TdA. In April 2023, a woman in South Florida called police stating that she was being held as a sex slave by two men who are associated with TdA. She claimed that she was trafficked by TdA to the US but was not able to pay the debt she owed them. The leader, Josmar Jesus Zombrano-Chirinos with his associates, Allbert Herrera Machado and Osleidy Vanesa Chourio-Diaz was said to conduct an operation that spanned various states. Zambrano facilitated houses used for sex trafficking in Texas, Louisiana, Virginia, New Jersey and Florida. This would mark evidence of the TdA trafficking pipeline reaching from Venezuela into the heart of the US. There have been various incidents this year of Venezuelan migrants committing theft and attacking police officers in New York, although there isn’t strong evidence that these men are legitimate members of TdA. 

Severity of Threat Level

Since the video of the armed Venezuelan men at The Edge at Lowry has circulated, so many rumors and conflicting information has been spread. On social media, videos were allegedly shared saying the Hells Angels Motorcycle Club was going to come to Aurora to expel TdA from the city. That was proven to be false. Another false narrative shared on social media was that TdA were strategically taking over apartment buildings, one by one, leaving Aurora PD unable to contain the growing chaos that is happening. That was proved to be false. While the threat is not as widespread as many are proposing, there is still a very real threat that is apparent with TdA. Aurora police did arrest 10 individuals who were linked to TdA. All of them were charged with various individual crimes such as assault, robbery, vehicle theft, and attempted homicide. A few of them reside in the two complexes that were allegedly taken over. Its apparent that TdA is a threat, although an isolated threat. The victims of their violence and possible extortion are those that are in the same migrant Venezuelan community. Although with the security of our border in question and the large influx of migrants that is continuing to grow, issues with TdA could potentially grow. 

Cracks in the Venezuela-Cuba Economic Partnership

Rick “Rickynomics” Alonzo

The Venezuela-Cuba oil-for-services deal is on shaky ground due to Venezuela’s plummeting oil production, financial collapse, and political instability. The drop in oil shipments has forced Cuba to turn to suppliers like Mexico and Russia, but this hasn’t solved its energy crisis. The arrangement remains critical for both countries, but Venezuela’s instability, coupled with U.S. sanctions, could soon unravel the agreement, further straining their economies.

Situation

The Venezuela-Cuba oil-for-services alliance, once a solid pillar of their socialist bond, now faces serious threats. When Hugo Chávez and Fidel Castro solidified this deal in the early 2000s, Venezuela supplied Cuba with heavily subsidized oil in return for Cuban medical, military, and educational services. This was a win-win: Venezuela got much-needed support, and Cuba secured vital energy. But today, with Venezuela’s oil production plunging and exports to Cuba down to 55,000 barrels per day—far from the peak of 100,000—the energy shortage is hitting Cuba hard. Blackouts, fuel shortages, and economic strain are becoming the new normal.

Venezuela’s economic tailspin isn’t new—it’s been fueled by years of mismanagement in its oil industry. But the situation has worsened under Nicolás Maduro, especially with U.S. sanctions choking the regime’s access to vital resources. These sanctions have crippled oil production, directly impacting Venezuela’s ability to maintain its agreement with Cuba. For Havana, which has heavily depended on Venezuelan oil since the early 2000s, the shortfall means leaning more on alternative energy sources like Mexico and Russia. Despite these efforts, Cuba’s energy crisis persists, keeping its reliance on Venezuela at a critical level.

Historically, this deal was about much more than just oil. The relationship between Venezuela and Cuba runs deep, shaping both countries' foreign and domestic strategies. Through the "Barrio Adentro" program, Cuba sent thousands of doctors to Venezuela to address healthcare needs in exchange for oil, keeping both economies and political systems resilient to external pressures like U.S. sanctions. But as Venezuela’s production continues to slide, Cuba finds itself in an increasingly vulnerable position, unable to rely solely on past alliances to weather its own economic struggles.

The military relationship has been just as vital. Cuba has provided Venezuela with intelligence, military training, and strategic support to ensure the regime’s survival during periods of internal unrest. Cuban military advisors have helped Venezuela maintain control, particularly as Maduro’s government faces economic collapse and pressure from external sanctions. Cuban military advisors have helped Venezuela maintain tight military and intelligence control, ensuring the loyalty of armed forces and paramilitary units while also aiding in surveillance and counterintelligence efforts. This control has been pivotal as Maduro’s government faces economic collapse and external pressure from U.S. sanctions, preventing defections and suppressing opposition movements. Cuba’s influence is ingrained within Venezuela’s military and paramilitary forces, which remain key to keeping Maduro in power.

But the drop in oil production is straining this once-strong bond. Over the past decade, Venezuela’s oil output has plummeted due to corruption, mismanagement, and deteriorating infrastructure. U.S. sanctions have only accelerated this decline, pushing Cuba to seek other energy sources. By 2023, Mexico became Cuba’s second-largest oil supplier, covering 31% of its crude oil needs, while Russia supplied another 11%. Yet, despite these new partnerships, Venezuela remains essential to Cuba, and the reduction in shipments has exacerbated the island’s ongoing energy crisis.

Mexico’s expanded role in supplying Cuba reflects a broader shift in regional geopolitics. With Claudia Sheinbaum now leading Mexico after taking over from Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) in 2024, she’s likely to maintain AMLO’s supportive policies toward Cuba, especially as they deepen ties in energy cooperation. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Cuba’s medical help to Mexico set the stage for continued collaboration. Still, Mexico and Russia can’t fully replace Venezuela’s role as Cuba’s primary energy supplier.

Despite their contributions, Cuba remains vulnerable. The country’s energy shortages persist, and its reliance on Venezuelan oil continues, even as it tries to diversify. If Venezuela’s oil exports decline further, Cuba could see an even worse energy crisis, with more frequent blackouts and severe economic consequences. Venezuela’s internal instability—driven by hyperinflation, economic collapse, and the potential for regime change—poses an even greater threat. Should Maduro’s government fall, or if sanctions tighten further, Cuba could lose its most vital source of subsidized oil, leaving it more dependent on countries like Mexico and Russia, both of which have limited capacity to meet Cuba’s growing needs.

Venezuela’s financial instability also jeopardizes the sustainability of the oil-for-services deal. Its oil industry, once the backbone of the national economy, is collapsing. Mismanagement and hyperinflation have left it incapable of meeting production goals. Any potential regime change could upend the arrangement, as a new government may prioritize internal recovery over international alliances. If that happens, Cuba’s already precarious situation would become even more fragile.

Additionally, both countries maintain tight control over their oil sectors. Neither Venezuela’s Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) nor Cuba’s Unión Cuba-Petróleo (Cupet) allow foreign investors to access equity stakes or stocks in their companies. Both permit joint ventures and operational agreements for oil exploration, but foreign investment remains strictly limited. This closed system prevents much-needed financial relief, keeping both countries on the brink of further economic hardship.

As the Venezuela-Cuba oil-for-services partnership weakens, both countries are becoming increasingly vulnerable. Cuba’s growing reliance on Mexico and Russia helps, but it’s not enough to stave off deeper energy crises. Venezuela, meanwhile, risks losing a critical ally as its internal political and economic situation continues to deteriorate. The partnership persists for now, but its future looks uncertain, especially as both nations face mounting internal and external pressures.

Analyst Comment

Venezuela is trying to get its oil sector back on track with new drilling projects, especially in the Maracaibo basin. But it’s going to take time—optimistically, six months to a year before output improves. Even then, the production won’t return to the high levels Cuba enjoyed in the past. Despite reduced oil shipments, Cuba is stuck in a “Catch-22.” It has to keep backing Venezuela’s military and intelligence services because losing that influence could mean a regime change, one that might shut Cuba out completely.

Cuba has been turning to Mexico and Russia for oil, but while they’ve helped, they can’t fully make up for Venezuela’s shortfall. The new drilling efforts offer some hope, but even with increased production, it’ll likely just stabilize at current levels. Both countries are walking a tightrope—Cuba needs to diversify its energy sources without losing its foothold in Venezuela, while Venezuela must stabilize its production to keep the partnership alive. Whether this alliance holds depends on how quickly Venezuela can get its oil production up and if Cuba can find alternative energy lifelines without losing geopolitical leverage.

Looking Forward

Recent crimes and media coverage has forced government officials to take action against Tren de Aragua. Colorado officials are allocating law enforcement assets towards fighting the gang and the State of Texas recently declared the gang as a foreign terrorist organization. However, one wonders if these actions are too little too late. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has been clearing his prisons on the condition that freed inmates migrate outside of the country. The arrival of TdA in the United States was predictable; as it was in Peru, Colombia, Chile, and elsewhere.   

Venezuelan oil production faces an uphill battle. The nation’s energy industry, which it relies on heavily, has been failing for a number of years. Even if the country can ramp up production in six months (a very big ‘if’), Cuba still needs to fulfill its own energy needs and must find another supplier in the meantime. Given that the country relies so heavily on oil products for its needs, its options are limited.