Bulletin From the Borderlands

3 October 2024

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He is a graduate San Jose State University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the team lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands.

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

Robert “Bobby” Acuña is a graduate of Texas A&M University – Corpus Christi with both a BBA in Economics and a BA in Political Science. He was originally born in Subic Bay, Philippines but lived much of his life in Corpus Christi, Texas. He currently resides in Houston, Texas. Growing up in a military family, Robert developed a passion for politics as well as studying war history. Some of his earliest memories were watching World War II documentaries with his grandfather. This led him to his educational path in university. One of his favorite aspects of his collegiate career was political research. His most recent work was with The Modern Insurgent. He believes Bulletin On The Borderlands will help to fulfill that urge to understand and stay consistently aware of the geopolitical issues around the world. Outside of his interest in global affairs, Robert is an avid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioner and rugby player.

Edwin Dudley Taylor: An Undergraduate at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. Studying International Relations and History he has a precise focus on African and Middle Eastern affairs and politics. Additionally he has worked as an intelligence analyst for GreyDynamics and also as has a role as the Senior Editor at The Modern Insurgent.

Jillian Butler: A lifelong writer and San Diego native. She received her bachelor’s degree in English and History at the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland. Upon moving back to San Diego, she received her master’s in International Relations at the University of San Diego where she centered her research around jihadi terror. She is also a contributing writer for Pop Smoke Media, American Grit, The Modern Insurgent, and Lethal Minds Journal’s Bulletin from the Borderlands. In her free time, she can be found surfing, training jiu jitsu, or improving her craft of cooking the perfect ribeye.

Zach Busch: A writer and filmmaker based in New York. After graduating from Georgetown University with a BS in International Law & Politics, Zach spent four years working in strategic communications & public diplomacy, specializing in the Middle East, North Africa, and Western Asia. He has advised foreign governments and ghostwritten on behalf of ambassadors and world leaders. He is currently completing his MFA degree in Film Directing at NYU Tisch School of the Arts. Zach's thesis film, Sagittaria, a political succession drama set in an alternate timeline, shoots in September 2024.

Sponsors

The Bulletin is brought you to by PB Abbate.

As you likely know, Lethal Minds Journal shares common ancestry with Patrol Base Abbate, one of the most impactful veteran’s outreach organizations in America. One of the ways in which we connect is through a love of the written word, a belief in the power of good writing to help give a voice to people who need to be heard, and a desire to help service members and vets connect through self-expression.

In This Issue:

The Americas: Covered in this issue by Rick “Rickynomics” Alonzo.

Mexican drug cartels use their relationships with Colombian guerillas to sabotage the peace process. In the United States, Venezuelan prison gang Tren de Aragua is turning to organized retail theft in large cities.

Europe: Covered in this issue by Edwin Dudley-Taylor and Jillian Butler.

Ukrainian eyes are on the US presidential election as former President Donald Trump has implied that his potential administration will reduce support to Ukraine. Ukraine’s reliance on foreign aid, especially from the United States, puts it in a precarious position. To the west, the European migrant crisis has fueled organized crime in north Africa.

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by John M. Larrier (Defense Bulletin).

As relations between Russia and the West continue to sour, the former has become closer to its neighbor, China. The two nations have been increasing their naval cooperation and flexing their muscles towards regional players. China also recently conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile test, the first in decades. This has raised the eyebrows of many, especially the United States.

Central Asia and the Middle East: Covered in this issue by John Larrier, and Jillian Butler.

The war in the Middle East has shifted its focus from Gaza to Lebanon and Iran. As this publication has predicted, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated once again, with the former sending two divisions into southern Lebanon in recent days. Iran has thrown its hat into the ring as well. To the east, the international community continues to send strongly worded letters to the Taliban and threaten lawsuits, with little effect.

Africa: Covered in this issue by Jillian Butler.

The civil war in Sudan continues to rage as the Sudanese Armed Force seek to retake the capital of Khartoum from the Rapid Support Forces. In the Sahel, al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM has once again embarrassed the military junta in Mali, launching a deadly large scale attack on the capital for the first time in nearly ten years.

The Highlight: Escalations in the Middle East

The Americas

Rick “Rickynomics” Alonzo

Mexican Cartels Sabotaging Colombia’s Peace Efforts

Rickynomics 

Mexican cartels, particularly the Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG, have deeply entrenched themselves in Colombia’s drug trade, effectively becoming the invisible hand behind insurgent groups like the ELN and FARC dissidents. The cartels fuel violence and keep these insurgents operational, derailing peace talks and perpetuating conflict. With cartel-insurgent partnerships intact, Colombia’s peace process remains stalled, and the violence threatens to spill across borders.

Bottom Line Up Front 

Mexican cartels have shifted from mere buyers of Colombian cocaine to key players controlling production and distribution. In areas like Norte de Santander, Putumayo, and Cauca, the Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG dominate coca cultivation. These regions are also strongholds of insurgent groups such as the ELN and FARC dissidents, who rely on cartel funding and arms to maintain control. The relationship is symbiotic: cartels need insurgents to secure drug routes, while insurgents rely on cartel money and weapons to sustain their operations.

The ELN has increasingly integrated into the drug trade, using cartel funding to expand its influence in Catatumbo and Arauca. For groups like the ELN, peace is unappealing because the drug trade is more profitable and ensures their survival. Disarmament would mean cutting off their primary financial lifeline. Similarly, FARC dissidents, despite the 2016 peace deal, continue to operate in places like Meta, Guaviare, and Putumayo, where cartel support has turned them from political rebels into drug traffickers. Cartel money and arms keep these dissident factions thriving and deeply involved in the cocaine economy.

Cartel control goes beyond finances—it’s about influence and power. In Putumayo, the CJNG has formed strong alliances with FARC dissidents, making these insurgents more like a military wing of the cartel. The Sinaloa Cartel operates similarly in Norte de Santander, turning insurgents into enforcers for their drug empire. The Colombian government’s attempts to offer peace terms and reintegration programs cannot compete with the financial stability that the cartels provide to insurgents.

In regions like Cauca, cartel-backed violence is systematically undermining peace-building efforts. Community leaders advocating for crop substitution programs or pushing for peace have been targeted and killed by cartel-aligned militias. This creates a climate of fear that keeps the local population loyal to insurgents and resistant to peace initiatives. The insurgents’ control, backed by cartel money, prevents any meaningful government presence in areas like Choco and Arauca, making peace efforts feel like a distant goal.

The cartels’ influence extends beyond Colombia’s borders. In Ecuador and Venezuela, cartel-driven violence is increasing as smuggling routes push drugs and weapons across borders. In Zulia, Venezuela, and Esmeraldas, Ecuador, cartel-backed militias control key trafficking corridors, spreading instability throughout the region. Colombian authorities’ inability to neutralize cartel-backed insurgents has created a ripple effect, threatening the stability of neighboring countries.

Colombian officials are stuck in a vicious cycle: insurgent groups remain more aligned with cartel interests than with the government. As long as Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG money flows into insurgent strongholds, disarmament, and peace will remain out of reach. The government’s inability to secure coca-growing regions like Norte de Santander, Cauca, and Putumayo ensures that insurgents will continue to prioritize drug trade profits over peace.

At its core, the problem is clear: cartels control the money, and money controls the insurgents. Colombian officials are negotiating with groups that have no incentive to leave the battlefield because their survival and power depend on cartel cash. As long as the cartels fund these insurgents, peace will remain elusive, and the violence will continue to spread. Colombia’s peace process is being held hostage by Mexican cartels. Without breaking these ties, there will be no real progress in peace efforts, and the conflict will drag the region further into chaos.

Analyst Comment

President Gustavo Petro’s focus on peace through social programs and negotiated disarmament has led many Colombians to believe that a peaceful resolution with insurgent groups is achievable without heavy military intervention. However, the absence of aggressive counterinsurgency measures seen in previous administrations has allowed criminal organizations to grow stronger, particularly those under the influence of Mexican cartels. As Petro's administration emphasizes dialogue and social reintegration, Mexican cartels, like the Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG, are exploiting this policy shift to further embed themselves in Colombia's drug trade.

Without a robust military response, Colombian criminal groups are likely to fall deeper under cartel control, facilitating an expansion of Mexican cartel influence further into South America. If operational intensity remains low, Colombia risks becoming a key transit and staging point for Mexican cartels, enabling them to project power across the region and destabilize neighboring countries. Petro's policies, while aimed at peace, could inadvertently contribute to a growing security vacuum, leaving Colombia vulnerable to increased cartel dominance and long-term instability.

Transnational Crime: Venezuelan Gangs in U.S. Retail Theft

Rickynomics

Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan gang, has expanded into the U.S., exploiting retail markets through organized crime. With command centers in Colombia, the gang directs theft, smuggling, and human trafficking operations, turning U.S. stolen goods into profits for Venezuela's black market. The gang also recruits members from vulnerable migrant communities, particularly in U.S. cities with large Venezuelan populations. Local gangs may exploit law enforcement's focus on Tren de Aragua, using the reduced attention to strengthen their own operations.

Bottom Line Up Front

Venezuelan gangs like Tren de Aragua have shifted from local smuggling operations to sophisticated organized retail crime (ORC) networks in the U.S. Originally driven by survival, their operations now target cities such as New York, Miami, and Houston.

Facing Venezuela's economic collapse, these gangs have refocused their efforts on more profitable U.S. retail markets. They conduct smash-and-grab thefts, channeling stolen goods into local black markets and online platforms like Amazon and Facebook Marketplace. These thefts are part of a sophisticated, profit-driven system exploiting weaknesses in U.S. retail sectors.

The gang operates much like traditional organized crime groups. Leaders, often based in Venezuela, manage U.S. operations remotely through local operatives. Tren de Aragua has shifted much of its command and control to Colombia, where it takes advantage of drug routes, smuggling networks, and black-market economies. The influx of Venezuelan migrants into Colombia also provides the gang with vulnerable targets for extortion and trafficking. These command nodes in Colombia allow the gang to oversee operations across Latin America and drive their influence in U.S. markets.

One of Tren de Aragua's key strategies in the U.S. involves recruiting new members from within migrant communities. The gang specifically targets vulnerable Venezuelan migrants, many of whom have fled their home country's economic collapse and are desperate for survival. Recruitment efforts focus on migrant shelters and low-cost housing, particularly in major cities like New York. Infiltrating these communities enables the gang to coerce individuals into participating in various criminal activities, such as human trafficking, drug smuggling, and organized retail theft. Evidence has shown that Tren de Aragua has made significant inroads into New York's shelter system, where they recruit migrants and use the facilities to stash weapons and plan operations.

The gang's criminal enterprise doesn't stop at recruitment. Once goods are stolen, they are resold through small businesses or anonymously via online platforms. The anonymity of e-commerce makes it difficult for law enforcement to track and disrupt these activities. Many of the stolen goods are also smuggled back to Venezuela, where demand for essential items remains high due to widespread shortages. This creates a pipeline that turns U.S. retail theft into a lucrative international operation.

Lax U.S. laws on petty theft further enable these operations. In states like California, where theft under $950 is treated as a misdemeanor, gangs are able to conduct repeated thefts with minimal legal risk. Multiple operatives can target different stores, “Smurfing,” keeping thefts under the legal threshold and making it harder for law enforcement to crack down on the network. 

While law enforcement agencies increase their focus on Tren de Aragua, local gangs may exploit this attention gap. As resources concentrate on dismantling the Venezuelan gang's network, other criminal organizations could expand their own operations or strengthen their influence, taking advantage of the reduced law enforcement pressure on their activities.

Ultimately, Tren de Aragua is leveraging its experience from Venezuela's collapsed economy to exploit weak governance and retail vulnerabilities in the U.S. What began as a survival strategy has evolved into a global criminal enterprise that spans the U.S. and Latin American markets. As long as Venezuela's crisis persists and U.S. legal loopholes remain, these transnational networks will continue to grow and profit from chaos.

Analyst Comment 

Organized Retail Theft (ORC) thrives on high-value products, low risk, and easy recruitment. Brick-and-mortar stores in major cities risk collapse without robust law enforcement and legal deterrents. In Medellín, Tren de Aragua saw its smash-and-grab operations decline after local authorities implemented targeted anti-ORC measures, and rival criminals turned on the gang. In the U.S., "Head of the Snake" operations, which aim to dismantle leadership, are less effective against compartmentalized groups like Tren de Aragua, whose lower-tier members sustain operations. To disrupt these networks, a more comprehensive strategy should target recruitment, logistics, and legal reform.