Bulletin From The Borderlands Special Report

Iran-Pakistan:Flash Report

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

Iran-Pakistan:Flash Report

John M. Larrier- Defense Bulletin (With insights from Callisto Report and Sino Talk.)

Recently, in response to the bombings in Kerman, Iran on January 3rd, Iran struck alleged Daesh and Jais Al-Adl sites in three separate countries. Violating the sovereignty of three nations, Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan, only one has responded to Iran’s strikes with actions thus far. Pakistan. 

In response to the Iranian strikes, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs characterized the Iranian strikes as “a serious breach of Pakistan’s sovereignty” and “an egregious violation of international law and the spirit of bilateral relations between Pakistan and Iran”. Reminiscent of U.S. rhetoric surrounding regional tensions and conflicts in the region, Pakistani defense pundits repeatedly stated that they reserve the right to respond when and where they please.  

As expected, Pakistan conducted strikes in the Balochistan region of Iran against Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) sites in response to Iran’s earlier strikes. 

Since both countries conducted these strikes reports of increased deployments of forces to the border by both countries have surfaced, Iran has begun an air defense exercise, and repeated attempts from China to mediate talks geared towards deescalation have reportedly failed. Saudi Arabia is now apparently attempting to mediate between the two countries. Some notable comments on events came from both India and Turkey, with India voicing support for Iran and Turkey saying “we hope that issues will soon come to an end through dialogue and cooperation without further threatening regional security and stability” in a recent statement from the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 

Comment:

Many have attempted to characterize this tit-for-tat as a massive increase in tensions between the two countries. While this recent escalation is unprecedented, there aren’t many indicators that point to a willingness from both countries to continue in escalation. Both countries in the past few months have made considerable efforts to increase cooperation on both economic and national security issues. Most notably, joint Iranian-Pakistani naval exercises were scheduled to begin soon. While Pakistan has now recalled its vessels from Iran and canceled the exercise, it's unlikely that Pakistan or Iran will seek to further derail bilateral relations past the current escalation. The nature of Pakistan's response may provide some insight that gives credence to this forecast. Pakistan chose to hit non-state entities within Iran, instead of IRGC bases and infrastructure well within range of their fighters and long/medium range precision fires. It is  important to differentiate between Pakistani strikes on non-state actors in Iran and Pakistani strikes on IRGC bases/infrastructure within Iran, and it should be noted that the implications of both are different. Pakistan’s decision not to target IRGC bases and infrastructure and Iran’s decision not to engage Pakistani air threats could be indicative of a willingness not to escalate by both countries. Iran has also begun air defense exercises. These exercises are likely an effort to increase force protection for IRGC and other conventional elements in the region, and not for any offensive action. 

Many are also surprised at India’s response, but it was to be expected. While India is a stickler for non-alignment, a large portion of Indian defense planning accounts for the threat from Pakistan. Not to mention, for the majority of India’s existence, Pakistan was the primary threat. While India may be reluctant to knock Pakistan down a peg themselves, they will likely always voice support for the opposite belligerent in any conflict involving Pakistan. As the conventional and nuclear threat from China grows, India has begun to understand that eventually China, if they aren’t already, will become the greater threat to Indian national security. Not aligning with Pakistan takes precedence over all other diplomatic positions. This, combined with China’s increased ties with Pakistan, are the likely reasons for the position they have taken. 

The situation is ongoing. As of now, we should not expect any significant escalation from both Iran and Pakistan. 

---

Lethal Minds is a reader-supported publication.

Our monthly subscription is : $5

Our annual subscription is : $2.50 a month

Group subscriptions are available at a 25% discount per seat

All articles published in this newsletter are the personal opinions and positions of the authors themselves. All content, and the Bulletin From The Borderlands brand is the copyright of Lethal Minds