Bulletin From The Borderlands Weekly Round Up

Africa

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Africa Weekly Roundup: 3/6-3/13

Analyst/Staff Writer- Jillian Butler

Regional Flashpoints:

• March 7th, 2024: Over 280 schoolchildren have been kidnapped from the Northern Nigerian state of Kaduna.  Students between the ages of 8 and 15 years old were seized by armed gunmen breaching primary and secondary schools.  No group has claimed responsibility. On March 9th, a further 15 students were taken from their school.  It is suspected that bandit gangs have kidnapped these children and plan on holding them for ransom. These kidnappings are following the kidnapping of over 200 women and children in Borno State, Nigeria on March 1st.  This incident is suspected to be perpetrated by ISIS West Africa Province (ISWAP). Nigerian forces are searching forests and setting up roadblocks on the pursuit of these missing civilians. 

• In a move to quell the migrant crisis, the United Kingdom is offering illegal immigrants money to relocate to Rwanda. This agreement with the Rwandan governments would offer migrants 3,000 GBP to relocate to the African country.  Specifically targeting those unable to return to their home country, this unprecedented bill will give migrants support for up to their first 5 years residing in Rwanda.  It has been vehemently opposed by the Labour Party. 

• March 12th, 2024: Amid the violence and instability, Kenya put a pause on their decision to provide military aid to Haiti. Earlier, Kenya agreed to send over 1,000 police officers to Haiti in order to help quell the gang violence in the region. However, that agreement was reached with Kenyan Prime Minister Ariel Henry who agreed on Monday to step down from his position once a transitional government is formed. Kenyan President William Ruto states that he will re-evaluate the decision once a new government is in place. 

Regional Updates: 

• Regional instability prevails in Mali. Both Jihadist and non-Jihadist groups clash with the government.  Roads leading to neighboring countries are being blockaded, hindering the free movement of supplies and people.  There are also smaller-scale sieges in central Mali. Malian armed forces are struggling to contain these insurgent groups. The blockades, sieges, and withdrawal of the United Nations is creating a humanitarian crisis. 

• March 12th: A group of 15-20 Somali pirates seize a ship. A Bangladesh-flagged carrier ship was transporting coal from Mozambique to the United Arab Emirates when it was seized and its 23-member crew was taken hostage. This incident occurred in the Indian Ocean, about 600 nautical miles east of Mogadishu, Somalia.  There has been a resurgence of Somali pirate attacks. 

• Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) continues to wage violence.  The group has already displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians. These new attacks have left over 70 children missing. Aid agencies fear they have been drowned in the river or kidnapped by the group. ISM is rumored to kidnap children to use as child soldiers and sex slaves. 

Looking Forward/Strategic Forecast: The coming months in Africa look unstable.  The kidnapping of children tends to appear in a pattern.  If a ransom is paid to the Nigerian bandits, they may feel emboldened to continue this fundraising tactic. If ISIS was behind the kidnapping of women and children, it is likely they will be married off or sold, rather than held for ransom. If organized crime in Nigeria is unable to be contained, the country may follow suit with its Sahelian neighbors and seek help from the Wagner Group. In both Mali and Mozambique, Jihadi presence poses an economical, humanitarian, and security concern. If the blockades continue in Mali, the country will not be able to engage in trade with its neighbors. Increased ISM attacks in Mozambique may push foreign oil companies out of the country as they did in 2021. On a humanitarian level, sieges can cause food and medical shortages.  ISM forced hundreds of thousands of people out of their homes and likely kidnapped children.  Areas rife with humanitarian crises are also hotspots for terrorist recruitment. With the overall rise in global Jihad and the start of Ramadan, expect to see more terror attacks.