Bulletin From The Borderlands Weekly Round Up
Bulletin From The Borderlands Weekly Round Up
Asia and Oceania
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Weekly Wrap-up: Indo-Pacific
Desk Chief- John M. Larrier
Regional Flashpoints:
According to a number of Taiwanese sources and the U.S. 2023 NDAA, the U.S. Special Operations Forces Liaison Element (SOFLE) will widen its operations in Taiwan to include deployments to Taiwan's Kinmen Island and Penghu Islands. Kinmen is just 6 miles from the Chinese mainland and Penghu is 30 miles to the west of the Chinese mainland. This marks a significant shift in U.S. policy on advisor forces inside of taiwan. It’s important to note that they will also help Taiwan’s military plan and execute a number of small/large-scale exercises aimed at enhancing Taiwan’s sometimes lacking force readiness.
Shown below is the portion of the U.S. 2023 NDAA via Ian Ellis on 𝕩:
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has taken a firm stance, affirming the country’s defense against China’s territorial claims. This tension was highlighted when Chinese vessels fired water cannons at a Philippine boat and repeatedly rammed Filipino vessels during a resupply mission, an act condemned by Manila as “unprovoked acts of coercion and dangerous maneuvers”. At least 4 Filipino crew members, including the Philippines' WESCOM commander, were injured in the confrontation. The incident has brought the Philippine-U.S. security pact into focus, questioning the extent of U.S. support in such conflicts.
Notable Regional Updates:
Australia and the Philippines have signed a strategic maritime accord to strengthen defense and economic ties amid China’s growing military presence in the region. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. emphasized the importance of this partnership for regional security during a rare address to Australia’s parliament. The agreement includes joint patrols in the South China Sea, demonstrating a united front against China’s assertive claims and actions in the disputed waters.
The United States is looking to revitalize its dormant shipyards with assistance from Japan and South Korea. This initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance defense and economic security coordination among the three nations. By leveraging the advanced shipbuilding industries of its allies, the U.S. aims to address the challenges of modernizing its naval fleet and improving overall efficiency. This move comes in response to concerns about maintaining a competitive edge in shipbuilding capacity, especially given China’s dominant position in the global market.
Singapore has agreed to welcome Australia’s AUKUS-class nuclear-powered submarines as part of the AUKUS security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Looking Forward/Implications:
The recent escalation of tensions in the South China Sea, particularly between China and the Philippines, highlights China’s willingness to aggressively assert its dominance over non-peer nations they have disputes with.The U.S. shipbuilding industry, vital for maintaining American naval presence and deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, is under pressure to expand its capabilities in response to China’s growing naval power. This expansion is crucial not only for the U.S. but also for its allies and partners who rely on American naval power and shipbuilding capacity to ensure a “free and open Indo-Pacific”.
It’s likely that a perceived lack of support for the Philippines could lead to concerns among U.S. allies about the reliability of U.S. defense commitments. This perception might push smaller regional partners to seek their own security measures, which could lead to them looking elsewhere for security guarantees. It is not likely we will see said shift immediately.
The expansion of the AUKUS framework could serve as a counterbalance to China’s influence by enhancing collective defense capabilities through technology sharing and integrated military strategies. As the Aukus Framework expands, we can expect, with a high degree of probability, that Chinese coercion measures will expand in scope and scale.
The permanent presence of the U.S. Special Operations Forces Liaison Element (SOFLE) near the Chinese mainland could be perceived as a direct challenge, possibly leading Beijing to escalate its grey zone tactics, such as cyber warfare, economic coercion, and military exercises.
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