Bulletin From The Borderlands Weekly Round Up

Europe

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Regional Wrap-Up: Europe

Desk Chief - Meridian News

Regional Flashpoints 

• In an interview earlier this week, Pope Francis stated that Ukraine should have the courage of “the white flag” and benign negotiations with Russia to end the war that has now lasted for over two years, and claimed tens of thousands of lives. Pope Francis clarified that he believes the war can only be ended through negotiations, and that it takes courage to negotiate. 

• U.S. , French, and British forces intercepted multiple drones in the Red Sea area after Yemen's Houthis targeted ships, including U.S. destroyers. The Houthis, aligned with Iran, have been attacking ships in solidarity with Palestinians during the Israel-Hamas conflict. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said at least 28 drones were taken down. French forces also repelled four drones, protecting commercial ships.

• Greek students took to the streets in protest, throwing fire bombs and rocks at police in Athens as the Greek Parliament voted on new legislation that allows foreign private universities to set up campuses in Greece. Many students fear that allowing foreign universities into Greece will devalue their degrees, making it impossible to secure a job.

• Turkish police apprehended 33 individuals suspected of having ties to the Islamic State group (ISIS) and planning terrorist attacks before the upcoming local elections. Weapons, cash, and organizational documents were seized during raids in northwest Turkey. The suspects allegedly operated from illegal mosques and religious schools, providing personnel and financial support for IS activities. 

• Indian authorities are in conversation with Russia over the fates of 35 Indian citizens who were allegedly deceived into working for the Russian army. A human trafficking network that promised these Indian citizens jobs in Russia, was actually a pipeline into military service. India’s Central Bureau of Investigation revealed that the Indian nationals were recruited through social media and local agents, and were being trained for combat roles, and deployed in the Russia-Ukraine conflict against their will.

Notable Regional Updates

• Russia is set to hold its presidential election from March 15 to 17. The world is expecting Vladimir Putin will secure another six-year term in power, given his existing control over the state and popular support. People are often surprised to hear other candidates are running in the election representing the Communist Party, the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia or LDPR, the New People party. One candidate, Boris Nadeshdin, tried to run on an anti-war ticket, and had his candidacy disqualified. Putin's challengers face significant obstacles, with disqualifications and alleged state interference limiting their potential for success.

• Sweden officially became the 32nd county to join NATO, putting aside decades of neutrality sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two years ago. 

• Portugal’s elections saw a massive surge in support for the populist Chega party, who many consider to be far-right wing. Multiple corruption scandals across opposing parties recently came to light, alongside a rise in inflation, cost of living, the housing crisis, and healthcare issues fuel a growing public frustration with politics in Portugal. Voting for Chega is a surefire sign that change is coming to the region, and citizens are frustrated.

Looking Forward/Implications 

• Pope Francis' recent statement urging Ukraine to begin peace talks with Russia to end the ongoing war likely won’t change much, despite the Pope's moral authority. Ultimately, the Pope's call for dialogue carries the potential to promote a peaceful resolution, but Zelenskiy’s desire to give up no Ukrainian land makes peace very unlikely through Ukrainian negotiation alone.

• The Houthis' alignment with Iran and their targeting of Western ships in solidarity with Palestinians during the Israel-Hamas conflict could escalate the situation further if their attacks are able to cause significant damage or kill sailors.

• The student protests in Athens as the Greek could lead to continued social unrest and political instability. The concerns voiced by students about the potential devaluation of their degrees and increased competition for jobs may exacerbate existing economic and social tensions in Greece, where many graduates are already forced to leave the country in search of work.

• Putin will almost certainly secure another 6 year term in the upcoming Russian presidential election. Likely, not much will change from how things have been going - Russia will continue its war in Ukraine, and the existing tension between Russia and the West will maintain, hopefully with no further escalations.

• Sweden's decision to join NATO marks a significant shift in its longstanding policy of neutrality, sparked almost entirely by Russia's actions in Ukraine. This move will strengthen NATO's position in the region and enhance Sweden's security cooperation with other member states. However, it has also heightened already high tensions with Russia and had a significant effect on geopolitical dynamics in the Baltic Sea region.

• The surge in support for Portugal's populist Chega party, signals a shift in the country's political landscape, driven by widespread dissatisfaction with traditional parties amid corruption scandals and growing economic and social concerns from the public. Chega's rise reflects growing public frustration and a desire for change, but it also raises concerns about the polarization of politics and societal divisions within the country.