Flash Report: Russian Assaults on Kharkiv
Flash Report: Russian Assaults on Kharkiv
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Overview
On Friday, Russian forces launched a coordinated assault at multiple points along the border separating Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast and Russia’s Belgorod Oblast. It has been theorized for a number of months that Russia would assault Kharkiv with a newly formed grouping of forces. The disposition of Ukrainian forces near the border was thought to be fairly weak; which is something I also noticed while on a trip to the region in March.
At this time the assaults do not appear to be a large offensive, but more so multiple reconnaissance in force actions backed by air power, drones, and artillery. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry claims that infantry was supported by armor in these assaults, but local reports claim only light vehicles were involved. These apparent probing attacks likely proceed a larger offensive focus on Kharkiv and possibly also Sumy Oblast to the north..
Russian authorities claim that these attacks seek to establish a buffer zone along the border to prevent Ukraine from attacking Belgorod. Throughout the war Ukrainian units have launched numerous cross-border raids into Belgorod and other Russian border regions. Considering that Ukraine has weapons that can reach as far as 1,500km into Russia (as we saw this week in Bashkortostan), the Russian justification for these new Kharkiv assaults is disingenuous. The more likely aim of this renewed offensive focus on Kharkiv is to draw Ukrainian reserves away from areas in the Donbas like Pokrovsk (west of Avdiivka) and Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut). Both of those cities are prizes for Russian troops in the region, which have made considerable progress towards those cities in recent weeks. The Russians have already had some success in drawing Ukrainian units away from Donbas, as the Defense Ministry has confirmed that reserves have been deployed to Kharkiv.
Ukrainian authorities and analysts have reported that Russia has assembled a grouping of 100,000 personnel in Belgorod. That grouping was previously designated “Border Protection”, but was recently renamed to the “Northern Grouping of Forces”. This elevates that command to the same status as the other groupings currently fighting in Ukraine. The Northern Grouping was visited by their commander, Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, as recently as Thursday. While we do not yet know exactly how many soldiers Lapin has thrown at Kharkiv, that number is nowhere near 100,000. The Northern Grouping has thousands, if not tens of thousands, of additional personnel they can use to pressure northeastern Ukraine.
Situation on the Ground
Despite official government claims to the contrary, Russian forces have been able to advance across the border in multiple areas. Ukrainian military blog DeepStateUA has updated their widely-used map, showing Russian troops have penetrated the Ukrainian border at three points in two sectors. In the western sector, the settlements of Krasne, Strilecha, Pylna, and Borysivka are contested, according to the blog. In the eastern sector, the settlements of Ohirtseve, Hatyshche, and Pletenivka.
CNN has confirmed the Russian advances via unnamed Ukrainian sources. One source claimed that the Russian attack on Krasne used four battalions. Ukrainska Pravda has reported that the Russians are “storming” Pletenivka, corroborating the DeepState claim. The Ukrainian newspaper also claims that heavy fighting continues near Hatyshche.
The city of Vovchansk lies roughly six kilometers from the border. The city came under heavy shelling from rocket artillery in the opening stages of the attack. Civilians are currently being evacuated from the city due to the threat posed by shelling and the ground forces positioned to the north.
Looking Forward
As Russia’s renewed focus on Kharkiv is still less than 24 hours old, predicting the situation moving forward is difficult. The timing of these assaults should be noted. With the recent signing of new mobilization bills, and the ramping up of military aid to Ukraine, it serves Russia to attack Kkarkiv before Ukraine is able to get more men and ammunition to the combat zone. Ukraine’s defenses in Kharkiv have been lackluster for a number of months.
The city of Kharkiv is not currently under additional threats, however Russian forces may move to within artillery range of the city if their advances are not stopped. The deployment of Ukrainian reserves to the area may be able to defend against the Russian assaults. However, the latter does have a large number of forces that they can still throw into the mix.
Additionally, whatever units Ukraine deploys to Kharkiv are units that can’t be deployed to Donetsk. The Russian advances in that region have gained ground recently and threaten multiple Ukraine main supply routes (MSRs). Russian forces coming from Ocheretyne are just 10 kilometers from the T0504 highway that runs from Pokrovsk to Kostyantynivka. Both of those cities are objectives for the invading force.
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