Lethal Minds Volume 17
Lethal Minds Volume 17
Volume 17, Edition 1 01NOVEMBER2023
LETHAL MINDS JOURNAL
Lethal Minds Volume 17
Volume 17, Edition 1 01NOVEMBER2023
Letter from the Editor
Sometimes I write to you from the heart. On those days, I just sit down and beat the keys till I like the sound of the message. Then I let Lethal Minds Managing Editor Jeremy Kofsky know it’s ready to go and await your judgment.
It would be easy to operate from the heart this month. I certainly have feelings sitting here on Oct 25, 2023, cousins to the very dark thoughts I had on Sept 11, 2001. People leaping to their death on a beautiful fall day, because that was a better option than being consumed by flames, have a way of dislodging nuance. So too murdered families, captured in snuff films made by psychopathic rabble then distributed as political propaganda and trophies.
I cannot see the results of the Hamas attack on southern Israel without recalling that I was not concerned with a discriminant, or even proportional, response to 9/11. I can’t say that, were I Israeli, I would be particularly concerned with academic treatments of the Law of Armed Conflict or sterile concepts of “collateral damage” in the face of mass murder. Particularly if it was just another chapter in a story repeated over millennia.
But neither can I lie to you and say that if I were a Palestinian father raising my child among two million people living in 141 square miles, restricted in my movements, and subject to the dictates of people who could, but won’t, negotiate an answer, that I would see the nuances in years of back and forth political maneuvering. I can’t say that I would have the luxury to acknowledge that the bombs falling in my streets are a reaction my leaders knew would come, and in fact desired. I would just know that my kids were threatened. Or buried under rubble.
As a Marine once said to me of a farmer in our area of operations, “If you were driving a tank through my yard in Baldwin County, Alabama, I’d put out mines too.”
I spent twenty years in a flawed response to inhumanity. I have been party to killing at close range and at a drone’s remove and I know that while vengeance is simple, living with conjoined but conflicting realities is complex. As Rufus Miles, creator of Miles’ law said, “Where you stand depends on where you sit.”
Where I sit is in the Editor’s chair of a publication that seeks to give voice to people engaged in the business of answering the call when the state’s darkest impulses rule the day. It’s a business that requires passion and dispassion in ever-fluctuating measures. I think those kinds of people are the perfect source for thoughts on a world seemingly in chaos.
As we debate whether to support a nation improbably still standing in the face of a savage attack by our own declared #2 strategic threat, as nations on the African continent seem to change governments as rapidly as our own Congress goes through potential Speakers of the House, with an ascendant monolith in Asia, and as we attempt to balance obligations to a Middle Eastern ally responding to yet another genocidal attack with all the anger that response engenders and the strategic opportunities it offers regional hegemons, today seems to demand coldly rational analysis precisely because wildly emotional responses to the complexity of centuries-old grievances feel wholly justified.
I hope you will read, consider, and comment on the thoughts and opinions offered herein. I look forward to your feedback.
Fire for Effect,
Russell Worth Parker
Editor in Chief – Lethal Minds Journal
Submissions are open at lethalmindsjournal@gmail.com.
Dedicated to those who serve, those who have served, and those who paid the final price for their country. Submissions are open at lethalmindsjournal@gmail.com.
Dedicated to those who serve, those who have served, and those who paid the final price for their country.
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23. Rich Jordan on Empowering A Team
41. How to use Chapter 31 Veterans Readiness and Employment benefits with Max
51. What If My Passion Has Nothing To Do With What I'm Doing Now with Bill Kieffer
In This Issue
The Written Word
How I Get Here
Four October
Across the Force
A Grunt’s Reflections on Leadership
Poetry and Art
Pacific Holds its Breath
World Today
Hamas Motivations
Israeli Intelligence Failures
Hamas Strategic Goals
Escalate to De-escalate
The Written Word
Fiction and Nonfiction written by servicemen and veterans.
How Did I Get Here?
By Nick Orton
If you had told me that at eight years into my Army career I would be the author of two books and the admin of an Instagram page with over 102,000 followers focused on the niche topic of “military paranormal encounters”… I’d ask to have a glass of whatever it is your drinking.
And yet here I am. Truth be told if you would ask me how Tales From The Grid Square got started, like all good ideas it started after a couple of drinks. Six beers and a random idea to start a “paranormal military” Instagram page.
To be honest I’ve always been fascinated with the topic of the paranormal, and the search for answers that aren’t as clear cut as we would like. I couldn't get enough of it as a kid! I had a mountain of books on every subject from Sasquatch to UFOs, lost treasure and any niche subject I could find. I would watch every marathon of the X-Files on the SciFi Channel and didn't mind when the History Channel decided to go the whole “aliens did it” route. As I grew so did my interest in these subjects and the ability to research them. I was part of the generation that was firstable to dive into the internet, quite literally overwhelmed with the literal wealth of knowledge at my fingertips. I spent many a night perusing YouTube, Reddit’s rNoSleep, and 4Chan’s /x/ to scratch this itch.
Fast forward now to the first weeks of Covid, where I found myself stumbling on a weekly event to pass the lockdown time. Hosted by two “Mil Meme” pages (@not.a.jtac and @saltykilo) where they were posting DMs on their Instagram stories of servicemembers who had supernatural experiences. I was fascinated by what I was reading. Some of those stories were shockingly unique and authentic.
Then in 2021, I attended a rotation to the infamous Joint Readiness Training Center (JRTC). It was there that my fellow Soldiers and I had some strange experiences that felt more than just “part of the scenario.” I started researching and asking around, so, imagine my surprise when I learned Fort Polk is semi-infamous for paranormal activities and odd events occuring there. Even stranger, I found accounts and stories going back decades of hauntings. Written and oral histories talked about UFOs, Bigfoot, and even Dogman. This got me thinking about all the stories that had been told to me, those weird tales whispered at the smoke pit, or during a late night on Staff Duty, or between bored Soldiers in the field.
More importantly, it got me thinking about my own life and my time in service. And the more I thought about it, the more I realized that I had some weird stories myself, stories I had packed away in my mind because I had more important things to worry about at the moment.
Now, let’s fast forward to after those six beers, when Tales From The Grid Square (TFTG) was born.
Now TFTG didn't grow on its own, in fact I had a lot of help from the “Mil Meme” community. TFTG is a grassroots movement at heart, it's grown by word of mouth and by those who want to be a part of it. TFTG didn't kick off until I was introduced on the Sasquatch Chronicles Podcast and The Confessionals Podcast, the stage offered by those two incredibly successful shows helped TFTG gain a cult following and the momentum to grow… and keep on growing.
I decided I wanted to use this project as my own weird way to elevate veteran voices, to tell the stories that many struggle to tell. Then a chance connection with Nick Laidlaw of Battles And Beers got me turned onto the idea of creating a book. Taking inspiration from his book What The War Did To Us and mentorship from Laidlaw himself, I created the first volume in a TFTG series in May of 2022. One year later in May of 2023, I came out with a second volume. Over 500 stories from military members across our own armed services and militaries from around the globe are documented on paper for the world to see.
Creating two books has ignited a love of writing within me, which I find cathartic and invigorating in my life. TFTG has made me realized that I have a creative side worth fostering. I’m currently working onfiction inspired by the page and poetry on the side. I have written articles for The Lethal Minds Journal, Pop Smoke Media, American Grit, The Havok Journal, and The Mission Essential Gear Co Blog. Through TFTG I connected with one of my favorite authors, William Bolyard (Sober Mans Thoughts), who I now consider a mentor and a good friend; and I am a contributing writer for his project Dirtbag Magazine.
What’s next for Tales From The Grid Square? I really can't say for certain, but I know I’ll keep having fun with it. I decided from day one that I was going to have fun running this project, and I still am. I’m still active duty, and a member of the US Army. It’s hard to know what the future will hold for my career and the project. But all I know is that I will still be searching for all the weird, strange events haunting servicemembers across the globe.
Four October
By Tamin Fares
It has taken me almost sixteen years to finally build up the courage to sit down and write this. There have been attempts in the past, but none were ever successful. I would reach a certain point in the retelling and freeze up, unable to continue the narrative. In some instances, I would experience crippling anxiety brought on by the unpacking of it all, and be forced to leave the house, wandering, on miles long walks that were the only cure I had for the panic radiating out of me.
Even now I hesitate, my fingers poised above the keyboard, because I really don’t want to go down this road again. Unfortunately, I am compelled to do so. The truth is, I think about the events of Four October daily. I am either reminded by innocuous happenstance, or confronted by a sudden burst of realization--usually while driving--where I become aware that I have zoned out (again) and missed the turn I was meant to take. In both cases, I am painfully aware that this recollection will forever be a part of me. It’s woven into the fabric of my being. Twisted into such tight knots that, given two lifetimes, I could never undo them all.
I am hesitating again, this time with an overlong preamble. It’s time to rip the bandaid off. It’s time to take the plunge. One last thing though before I start; I don’t have a monopoly on trauma. This story will be hard to write, but also hard to read. Especially for those who have experienced the worst combat has to offer. It belongs to First Platoon, to Eagle Company, and to all the soldiers in every war, who witnessed the deaths of their honored comrades and were left behind, to inhabit a world that was somehow smaller and darker…
It’s funny how the passage of time is so important to us and yet, it tends to lose all meaning during some of the most consequential events of our lives. When the contact first started, I could have sworn that it was still early morning. The official narrative, however, marks the beginning of the battle at just shy of 12pm. It’s an inconsequential detail, but one that gnaws at me. That said, even if the firefight didn’t start till later in the day, it was still early morning when I knew that we were fucked.
The company had stepped off in the dark of night, moving into positions on the south side of a long, trash-strewn field. One squad of First Platoon, along with a gun team and the Sniper team, were to move into the far eastern position which anchored the flank. The battle plan called for two companies from our sister battalion to push from north to south, clearing a large swath of the sector and pushing the enemy into our skirmish line, where we would cut them to pieces.
After a painstakingly slow and quiet movement, we cleared and occupied an abandoned house that covered a four-way intersection. Our primary sector was straight east, but we had eyes up the northern road as well. Catty cornered to our building, a mosque loomed three stories high, imposing in its nearness. To our west, the open field stretched for several blocks. Opposite us, a row of decrepit buildings stood like rotten teeth.
Things settled into their familiar pattern. Guard rotations were decided, and radio checks made. I smoked a cigarette in an interior bathroom with a few of the boys, then went on my first shift pulling security. There wasn’t much to see. Bathed in the crackling green of night vision, the city was various shades of dark beyond the confines of our building. I couldn’t tell you what thoughts wound their way through my mind in those hours, but they probably centered around my upcoming mid-tour leave, and the fact that it wasn’t really “mid-tour” at all. We were on a fifteen-month deployment. By October, we had only been in-country for two months. Being the new man on the team, I’d drawn the short stick and would be taking my leave at roughly the 90 day mark. Once I returned, I’d be privileged to enjoy sunny Iraq for 12 straight months.
I scanned my sector until Teddy relieved me, then found a spot on the concrete floor and fell asleep. We never dropped kit when outside the wire, even while sleeping. The most one could get away with was unclipping their helmet to use as a pillow. Every once in a while one of the guys would pack out a poncho liner to curl up in, but they were universally made fun of for being soft. We were pathologically opposed to any kind of comfort while on patrol or in the OP. Not only was snivel gear a liability, but it had been drummed into our heads that Infantrymen survived and thrived with less than nothing. All we needed was our weapon and ammo, a rucksack with some food and water, and the sounds of gunfire to move toward.
When I was shaken awake by Coalter, the sun was about to rise and the soft gray of early dawn had permeated the oppressive gloom. I resumed my position pulling security and chewed several pieces of caffeinated gum to try and get some life into me. I heard the tinkling of bells coming from the west. This was followed by a radio call that advised all Eagle elements that a goat herder was traveling the road in front of our defensive line. I froze in place, waiting for the man to pass. We were in a covert posture, meaning no one was supposed to know we were there.
The shepherd passed my building and stopped his flock in the intersection. His goats spread out, foraging for food amidst the trash that was piled everywhere. He was dressed like a classic bedouin, with a flowing robe and a headscarf wrapped around his face. The goats grazed for a few minutes until the man stomped his feet and hissed a command in Arabic. Dutifully, the animals gathered together and followed their master down the road to the east, around a corner and out of sight.
It was fully light out by this point and I was able to smoke a cigarette where I sat. I lit up and through the curling smoke, watched as the city woke up. Fernando, First Platoon’s commander, poked his head into our room and let me know that to the north, our sister unit was beginning their clearance operation. I figured we had plenty of time before we would be expected to do anything more than sit and watch, so I let Teddy sleep when his turn came to take over. To the north, what appeared to be a cafe began receiving a lot of visitors. They were all military aged males and they looked agitated. I called Fernando over and reported what I was seeing. He passed it up the chain and told me to continue observation.
One of the men broke away from the group and started in our direction. He was wearing a black shirt with yellow sleeves and bluejeans. He looked to be in his 20’s, maybe the same age as me. His eyes were brown buttons on a tan face that was ringed by a sparse beard. I followed him as he approached, taking note of the distance and adjusting my aim accordingly. He stopped across the street from us and pulled a cell phone out of his pocket. He dialed a number and put the phone to his ear. Then, he did the thing I least expected him to do; he looked directly at me.
A jolt of electricity shot down my spine. It was one of the strangest sensations I ever experienced in my life, like I’d stuck a fork in God’s own electrical outlet. I knew that he saw me, as sure as I knew the palm of my hand. I froze, barely breathing as adrenaline surged through my body. He was still looking in our direction, but his eyes had moved away from my position and were now scanning the row of buildings occupied by hidden Eagle Company soldiers. I keyed the mic on my radio and whispered for Fernando to return to my position. All the while, never taking my eyes off the man in the street.
I should have shot him where he stood. There was no question in my mind that we had been compromised. Besides, in many parts of Iraq at the time, a male with a cellphone in hand was a legitimate target and well within the ROE. I didn’t though, and It’s a decision that haunts me to this day. I watched him hang up his phone and leave the way he’d come, ducking into an alleyway to the north where the street was now suspiciously empty.
Fernando came to my position and I reported what I’d seen. The LT conceded that there was a decent chance we’d been spotted, but said there was nothing we could do. We had our orders. The whole point was to decisively engage the enemy, but the hope had been to initiate contact on our terms. Now we would have to wait and see what the opposition did. We stayed at 100% security, anxiously observing our surroundings. Eventually, I leaned back against a wall where I must have dozed off because the next thing I knew, the silence was shattered by a single rifle shot.
I heard something fall over in the other room, followed by a panicked shout and then, almost in the same instant, the 240 roared to life spitting fire at the surrounding buildings. In my mind, these events happened near-simultaneously, but I can’t be sure I even heard anything before the machine gun started rocking. Memory is a tricky thing like that.
I jumped up and bolted to a corner of the large north-facing window. The tracers from the 240 were arcing into the windows of a building across the field from us. I pumped a few rounds into the same area hoping to suppress any enemy fighters who might be in the vicinity. There was indistinct shouting from the next room over, and then a call came over the radio;
“Eagle down.”
In our nomenclature, Americans were ‘eagles’ and bad guys were ‘crows,’ which meant one of our own had been hit. There was a momentary pause as the mental rolodex of who it might be rattled through my mind, and then a PKM from across the way opened fire on our position. Teddy caught a ricochet, or a piece of shrapnel–we were never sure which–in the center of his front plate and collapsed out of his seat behind the M14. He scrambled over to some nearby cover and gave Coulter a breathless thumbs up.
I hit the deck, cowed by the snapping hiss of the incoming rounds, and low crawled to the corner opposite from where I’d been firing. I popped up to my knees and fired a 40mm grenade straight north, up the street, without really aiming.
“Who is it? Who is it?” Someone was shouting, maybe me.
“It’s Milo,” Coalter said, “…he’s gone.” Something gripped me like a vice, squeezing me from the inside out. In that instant, a piece of me that I’ll never get back was ripped away, left behind on the second floor of a shitty abandoned house next to a nameless intersection in Baghdad.
I lose track of time here. I know I went through several magazines of ammunition and almost all of my 40mm grenades. All I see when I close my eyes are a series of red tinged snapshots. The muzzle of my rifle protruding from the window grate, shimmering from the heat radiating off of it. A flash of movement in an alleyway directly across from me that received a high explosive grenade in response. Teddy, sighting in on targets and firing with his M14. At some point RPGs were fired at us. I have no memory of this. But the twisted shrapnel scattered around after the contact proved that it was true.
I saw something move in a window of the mosque across from us and I fired a grenade, which missed, impacting low right. I popped open the breech of my M203 and loaded another round, aimed, and fired it directly into the window, where it exploded with a muffled crack. I didn’t waste a second to admire my marksmanship, moving instead to another position and unloading on a courtyard where I’d seen a tall, black clad enemy fighter popping out and firing.
Unbeknownst to me, nearly the entire line of Eco. positions were being engaged at that same time. A block to our west, a gun team from Second Platoon spotted a squad size element of enemy fighters attempting to flank us and chopped them down in the open. It was madness. A frontal assault by desperate Al-Qaeda fighters who were being squeezed from both sides. The plan was working flawlessly, except for the somber fact that one of our own lay dead in the next room.
I realized I was out of 40mm grenades and shouted that I needed a resupply. One of the grenadiers from 1st squad was willing to give up some of his, but I had to run out to the roof and meet him halfway. I bolted across our fighting position and crossed the threshold into the room where Milo had been killed.
The first thing I saw was blood everywhere. Great stagnant pools seemed to cover the whole floor, frothy and bright red like cherry koolaid. Next, I saw the crazed look on Ferguson’s face. He was the gun team leader and had taken over behind the M240b after Milo had been hit. Milo’s blood was slick all over the gun and it glistened in the gunpowder haze. Fat, lazy flies flitted about, feasting on the blood in a sight that sickens me to this day. Ferguson was splattered all over with red stains on his uniform and face. He was wide-eyed, staring out the window with a cigarette smoldering between tightly pressed lips. The smell of the space was heavy with the scent of iron, like walking into a butcher’s shop.
I turned toward the door that led out to the roof and was confronted by the sight of Milo’s lifeless body. He had been moved against a far wall and was facing away from me, but I could see his ashen face. The tip of his tongue was poking out between pale blue lips. The side of his neck was shredded where the sniper’s bullet had gone through, severing his carotid artery and sealing his fate. I didn’t want to look, but for some reason that I still don’t understand, I forced myself to take in all the details. Despite my morbid curiosity, I couldn’t comprehend what I was seeing. As soon as I exited the room I collapsed against a wall and slid down to a kneeling position. My brain had shut down.
Milo had been my roommate for over a year leading up to the deployment. He was a big, friendly Samoan, who, despite the fact that he didn’t know me, went to bat on my behalf in a fight when I first arrived at the unit. One time, he showed up drunk for a night fire range.
“You look like you want to fight me.” Matt Walker, our platoon sergeant, had said as Milo was being dragged out of formation.
“I do.” Milo responded, which elicited laughter from the leadership team. He’d fucked up, but damn if he wasn’t funny.
Sometimes, when he was really drunk, he would scream obscenities in Samoan and stab holes in the wall of our room while I played on the computer, laughing and egging him on. Most of the time though, he was a happy drunk, smiling and cracking jokes. The life of the party. One year for Thanksgiving, Milo, a few of the other guys, and I pooled our resources to cook a communal meal in the dayroom kitchen. He made Kopai, a Samoan dumpling type dish. Later, in Iraq, he showed me the proper way to consume Spam, cooking his slices in a barely working toaster oven and dousing them with Texas Pete and teriyaki sauce.
When we came back from pre-deployment leave he showed me pictures of his new wife. They had gotten married back in Oakland while he was home on leave and she had decided to join the Army so they could get stationed together. Apparently, she got the news of his death while she was still in basic training and chose to continue, going on to graduate with her cycle.
I was frozen. Stuck in a thought loop that was trying desperately to reconcile what I had just seen with the memories of the man I considered one of my very good friends. Staff Sergeant Minter, the 1st Squad Leader, saw me from his position across the roof and broke cover. He ran over to where I was kneeling and smacked me. Hard. My helmet bounced off the wall, rattling my teeth and snapping me back to reality.
“Get yo’ fuckin’ head in the game Fares!” He shouted over the gunfire. Minter was universally respected within the company. He was a machine, able to outrun anyone and cold as ice on the battlefield. He was absolutely stoic, rarely showing any emotion whatsoever. This only made me respect him more. In 2020 he was found murdered in a Nashville apartment.
It was the only time I’d ever heard Minter yell and it was all I needed. The thought of letting down an NCO I respected as much as him was enough to break me from my stupor and send me scrambling across the roof. I shoved everything I was feeling into a deep crevice in the back of my mind where it remained, festering, for many years after. I refused to look at Milo on my way back to my fighting position. I had seen enough the first time.
“How bad is it?” Teddy asked once I returned.
“Bad.” I said, not wanting to think about anything other than getting the enemy in my sights and making them pay for what they’d done. My rage had peaked. I wanted blood.
Teddy spotted movement up the northern road and called it out. I Took aim and was stunned to see the same guy from earlier in the morning, who I’d seen talking on his cellphone. He was looking in our direction from behind a small piece of cover. Beside him another man poked his head out. I remember shouting “That’s the same fucking guy!” several times.
“Well then shoot the motherfucker!” Minter yelled. He had followed me to our position to get a better look at the northern approach, though I suspect he was watching to make sure I wouldn’t lose it again.
Coalter had Teddy and I take aim. I targeted the man I’d seen earlier and Teddy took his friend, who now stood in the road fully exposed. They were just over 300 meters away and I’m not sure if they thought we couldn’t shoot that far, or if they were just braindead. Either way, they died for their stupidity. Coalter told us to take a simultaneous shot and counted us down.
“3.” I took a breath, my eye boring through my ACOG like a laser, taking in my target with murderous intent.
“2.” He stood there, oblivious. I tightened my finger on the trigger.
“1.” I exhaled, willing my body to absolute stillness.
“Fire.” I squeezed the trigger. My rifle bucked with the recoil and I lost the target. When I reacquired, He was gone. As if the Earth had swallowed him up.
“Hit.” Coalter said from behind us. He was watching through the spotters scope and had seen both men drop like sacks. I was elated. Teddy and I high fived. Coalter patted us both on the back. It was my first confirmed kill.
The rest of the day is a blur. At one point, when things quieted down into a series of smaller back and forth engagements, I rotated outside for some fresh air. I found out that the grenade I’d fired into the mosque window earlier in the day had resulted in an enemy KIA. A couple of the guys on the roof had seen the man pop his head up at the exact moment my grenade sailed through the window. I accepted their congratulations, then found a quiet corner to sit in and smoke a cigarette.
Apaches arrived on station and placed two hellfire missiles into buildings adjacent to our position. That seemed to put a pin in the enemy’s willingness to engage us. Throughout the early evening, we watched as wooden donkey carts policed up the enemy dead, transporting them away for burial.
We stayed on site till well after nightfall, finally displacing after ten pm. The walk back to the COP was a long and somber one. The 1SG greeted each man individually as we came into the wire, making sure to speak to all of us. It was a small thing, but one that sticks out in my mind as an example of leadership worth emulating. It had been less than 24 hours since we stepped off, but it felt like a lifetime had passed. In some ways it had. There was no time to think about it though, we still had a lot of work to do.
For months after October fourth we brought the fight to the enemy, eventually killing so many of them that they simply left, vacating the sector and limping off to hide somewhere on the Syrian border. Despite our overwhelming success, no amount of enemy dead could ever equal the loss we’d incurred. I was awarded an ARCOM V for my actions on the day of, but truthfully, at times I resent the medal. It all comes down to the man with the cellphone. He saw me. I failed at the most basic thing a sniper is supposed to do: not be seen. As a result, one of our own was killed.
My therapist tells me there’s nothing I could have done differently and most of the time, I believe him. But sometimes, I find myself wondering “what if.” What if I’d taken better care not to be seen. What if I’d taken the shot immediately after realizing we’d been compromised. On and on.
Regardless of my feelings on the matter, what happened on that day is sacred. It is something that belongs to the men who were present and to the family whose world was shattered by the news. It feels wrong somehow, as if I’m breaking confidence, to be putting this story out there for others to read but I am compelled to, if only to memorialize a moment in time. One moment among thousands. 4,419 to be exact, each of which has a story attached to it that deserves to be told. This one is mine.
Avealalo Milo KIA 4OCT2007.
Across the Force
Written work on the profession of arms. Lessons learned, conversations on doctrine, and mission analysis from all ranks.
A Grunt’s Reflections on Leadership
By Lieutenant Colonel Jeff Farmer
During my time in the United States Army, I benefited from incredible decisive leadership from superiors, subordinates, and peers. The Army afforded me the privilege and opportunity to lead soldiers and take care of their families across multiple echelons. Like others, I have led, followed, and served during incredible times of stress, against a free-thinking enemy trying to kill us. I have also led, followed, and served in times of great ambiguity, and at times political turmoil. These experiences and the people I have met helped to shape, grow, and cultivate my personal philosophy on service and leadership. Many lessons in the art of leadership came from my own mistakes, and other moments of levity came from those who were honest and humble enough to share their mistakes with me.
The cost of preparing our soldiers and their families for combat and lengthy periods of separation is never far from my mind. As leaders in the Army, our job is to accomplish the mission, while caring for and protecting soldiers and their families. Sometimes this comes at a painstaking cost. My hope is that I can pass along lessons I have learned, both positive and negative, to help you in your leadership journey.
Outside of combat, one of my greatest leadership challenges was as an infantry battalion commander, leading a formation of over seven hundred soldiers and employees during the height of COVID, while conducting an interagency mission to receive, stage, protect, and move onward our Afghan friends to enable their safety and opportunity in America. I was amazed at our young leaders’ creativity and ingenuity to overcome a significant and complex challenge outside the expertise of an infantry battalion, with minimal guidance. Below are seven maxims. These seven maxims are not all my original thoughts, nor do they represent all critical and necessary leadership values, but ones I value greatly and will apply no matter where I serve in life, as I continue to grow.
1. Followership. You must be a good follower before you can be a sound leader. Army Directorate Publication (ADP) 6-22 states, “Every Army leader is a subordinate to someone, so all leaders are also followers.” Just like any job, the Army also subscribes to the “do” first before you can lead. For example, an infantry soldier enters the United States Army as a rifleman. After serving time as a rifleman, they may be promoted to carry and employ the squad automatic weapon (SAW) which has a higher volume and delivery of small arms. Then the soldier, after demonstrating proficiency as the SAW gunner, may be elevated to a Team Leader, in charge of three to four personnel, then a Squad leader in charge of nine to eleven personnel, and so on. This model is not new to many organizations, and there are always exceptions based on the needs of the unit and levels of individual proficiency. However, one who becomes proficient at their individual craft and learns the job of their superior and can perform the job of those they lead becomes the example of a proficient and skillful follower. This type of follower is not just individually proficient but capable of effective and concise communication and often requires minimal direction from their first line supervisor. ADP 6-22 outlines, “Followers respond to the authority of a leader and specific direction. Following is more than just doing what one is told to do. Motivation is an aspect of following. Effective followership requires an ability to take the initiative to get things done when necessary. Effective leaders learn to be trusted followers.”
Today’s young people want to know the “why” at every turn. At times this can be frustrating based on short timelines, or for a combat tactical unit, during times of high tactical risk. Over time I learned to explain the “why” when you can to your subordinates, then be willing to trust the organization to accomplish its mission when time does not avail. This leadership technique requires building a foundation of trust and efficient processes that enable action within the entirety of the organization’s leadership. This does not happen overnight. These processes and mutual trust require months and months of training, exercises, and refining those processes not only from the top down, but more importantly from the bottom to the top. I was lucky; I had the best company commander any soldier could ask for while serving in the 1st battalion, 502nd Infantry Regiment. I would follow him anywhere and I did. So did the company for one year into the Sunni Triangle, aka, “Triangle of Death.” Of my four combat deployments, this deployment was the most violent and brutal tour, and it required profound and unwavering trust amongst the formation. This included trust in our leadership to provide our soldiers the necessary resources and assets to accomplish the mission, and trust in one another to protect each soldier with their own life. When our peers, superiors, and even subordinates trust in our ability to be a good follower, then we begin to transition into a ready and capable leader.
2. Read the Room. Problem sets will always evolve, and at times completely change direction or shape when confronted by individuals, resources, and allocated time to further analyze and solve the problem. Therefore, lead with empathy, compassion, love, and an undying conviction to doing the hard right thing. I have learned that it is incredibly important to actively survey our changing environment; this can be from feedback and sensing sessions with bosses, peers, and our formation (employees). New and innovative ideas from brand new privates or a new employee can often provide fresh and enlightening perspectives or a unique way to tackle a problem.
3. Make the Tough Decisions. Respected versus liked- you must be willing to make the tough choices. As a battalion commander I conducted platoon leader (first line managers) physical training once a month, followed by breakfast. This gave me the opportunity to receive feedback from the lower echelon and gain an appreciation for the real and tangible challenges these young leaders were facing within their formations. I valued these sessions, and they helped me reinforce my priorities. More importantly, these sessions helped me understand where I needed to shift focus based on the ground truth. At the end of each session, I always walked away with information that I either did not know or about which I previously had a misconception. Likewise, I was able to communicate the “why’ to these young leaders. When we ended the session, I asked one thing of every platoon leader: to make the tough decision.
A deputy commanding general once asked me “how do you want your organization to be remembered?” My answer was as premier warfighters. In my case as an infantry company and battalion commander, I wanted the organizations I was privileged to lead and be a part of, to be the best infantry and combined arms warfighting force on earth. For instance, no one on an American football team practices and competes in a football game wanting to lose, miss the playoffs, or intentionally fall short of a successful season. No one starts a season saying, “I sure hope we lose the first three games.” Similarly, as an infantry company commander and infantry battalion commander, I wanted to practice (train) the best I could with our team, and be the most dedicated, lethal infantry formation in combat if called to fight and win our Nation’s wars. Why wouldn’t you? At times this was a personal challenge of mine, which gets at the root of the problem of explaining the “why” to our young leaders and often why these decisions to train so aggressively are made to prepare our force to succeed in combat. I have commanded in combat and in peacetime; peacetime was harder. Part of this environment requires you, as a leader, to make the tough decisions, often unpopular decisions. Additionally, teaching your subordinates to make tough decisions will not only strengthen your organization through the empowerment of others, but doing so will increase trust in the organization, and foster a sense of pride that all are making a truly positive impact and that their voices are helping to build the organizational fabric of success.
Your decision may not always be popular, but this is a component that I believe is often missing from truly creating and maintaining a “people first” organization capable of warfighting. In an era that often promotes popularity over competency, making the tough decision is not as easy as it may seem. While serving in the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), our formation participated in a thirty-day exercise with the rest of the division. The division was deliberately protecting precious time and resources to enable subordinate units to hone their tactical proficiencies. It was summer in Kentucky, and it was hot. At the end of the thirty-day exercise, I made the decision to conduct a 12-mile tactical foot march back to garrison. As you can imagine, this was wildly unpopular with soldiers, family members, and even some of my superiors. I consulted with my senior Non-Commissioned Officer (NCO), several confidants, and even my wife. Yes, my wife. I weighed the options, analyzed the risk, and implemented risk mitigating measures, such as walking at night to minimize the risk of heat exhaustion, and chose to stay the course. Walking at night also enabled the entire battalion to move under combat load, under night vision devices, conditions in which many units rarely train. I knew our formation not only was more than capable of completing this physical challenge but would be even more prepared for combat and that our organization would find immense pride in its accomplishment. As usual, our soldiers exceeded my expectations. Make the tough choice, do the right thing. I find when life is consistently easy, I may not be making enough tough decisions. Tough decisions can be made with dignity and respect for our employees, their welfare, and the efficacy of the organization. T.R. Fehrenbach wrote in his classic account of the Korean War, in This Kind of War, “Americans fully understand the requirements of the football field or the baseball diamond. They discipline themselves and suffer by the thousands to prepare for these rigors. A coach or manager who is too permissive soon seeks a new job; his teams fail against those who are tougher and harder. Yet undoubtedly any American officer, in peacetime, who worked his men as hard, or ruled them as severely as a college football coach does, would be removed. But the shocks of the battlefield are a hundred times those of the playing field, and the outcome indefinitely more important to the Nation.”
4. Lead Up. Your leaders are human, so are you. Your leaders will make mistakes and so will you. If you have a leader who is unwilling to listen to your rationale, explain your plan and intended actions (how you plan to solve the problem) and if your direction and guidance is legal, moral, and ethical, execute. Communicate often and early. It may take a while, but your supervisor or leader will thank you later when they realize you not only solved a complex problem that they maybe did not have the time or capacity for, but you helped to enhance the organization, allowing the leader to focus their attention elsewhere. An incredible mentor taught me, we follow orders, but we have a moral obligation to not blindly follow orders. This may come as controversial to some, but as you mature in any organization and weigh levels of risk you as a leader have a moral obligation to right the ship. Hopefully, your subordinates trust you enough to come to you when you are unintentionally missing the mark.
One of my greatest leadership struggles came during my time as a battalion commander. My boss would power down or turn off the minute I walked into the room, or even when I spoke during an office call or organizational meeting. Additionally, I had a few subordinate leaders that had their own agenda, and their agenda was not in the unit’s best interest. I was feeling the pressure on both ends, and yes, it was still during COVID. I tried desperately reaching out to others for advice on how to better communicate, and I began to doubt myself when I truly realized after many months that no matter what I did, said, or articulated how I was aiming to help the greater organization, there was nothing I could do to energize or gain my superior’s trust. I had lost confidence in myself and my capabilities. I asked the leader if we could speak privately and shared that I felt he turned off when I spoke and that he was not truly present when I needed him to hear me. I also tried to articulate the problem could be me and that I was working on my ability to effectively communicate. My boss expressed shock at this and then thanked me for my candor. At first, I was completely relieved, I thought we both had a breakthrough in a positive direction. Weeks later I realized that this perceived groundbreaking conversation was a proverbial kiss of death; for the next year, this leader continuously brought up to me that I thought he was not present or focused. I was heartbroken, my intentions were sincere yet naive.
I had several choices going forward, and I was the senior battalion commander in our brigade. I was fully aware my actions had consequences and could negatively impact the greater organization. I could be argumentative, combative, defiant, or even silent. Alternatively, I could set a positive example and continue to communicate how our team was conducting remarkable feats, executing tough and realistic training, and solving the higher organization’s problems without being asked. I chose the latter. Going forward I invited this leader to every training opportunity and family event in the organization. I explained to my boss how our organization was supporting the higher organization and then just moved out and executed regardless of his lack of attention. The results of the amazing soldiers and their leaders did their own talking most of the time. I did not wallow in the lack of accolades or affirmation. The organization was all the better, and I grew to accept you may not always be liked, but you can be respected. Your organization deserves your best regardless of its surroundings, which leads me to point five.
5. Effective Communication. I once had a leader that led with effective communication as the centerpiece of his leadership philosophy. This is key across all echelons but even more important at higher echelons. Do not take everything personally, most of the time a failure to achieve a task is not a direct snub on you as a leader, but rather a miscommunication or lack of shared understanding. Do not leave matters up to interpretation. I give you the metaphorical blue square. If the square needs to be colored blue, tell your subordinates it needs to be blue; if you have time, tell them why it needs to be blue. If you do not have time, trust your subordinates to color the square blue and then when you do have time circle back around and explain the reasoning behind the “why” blue. The concise coloring of the metaphorical blue square will save time, resources, and lives one day and is not a violation of trust or mission command; one day your subordinates will thank you when that “coloring of a blue square” becomes the timely prosecution of an accurate artillery fire mission in a foreign land against a lethal and devout enemy. As a company executive officer in 2006, in Southwest Baghdad, my company commander gave me an order to take an element of about forty soldiers, over twenty kilometers away from our main post, and establish a perimeter which would ultimately begin the generation of combat power to assist in the search and recovery of a downed U.S. aircraft, its pilot, and further enable offensive operations for the brigade combat team. The place was called Rushdi Mullah, and it was a hot bed of activity for the Iraq origin of Al Qaeda. Due to operational demands, risk, and the necessity for timely and quick execution, there was minimal time for long planning sessions and discussions. My company commander helped outline the problem set, identified the minimum force (assets and resources) requirements, and sent us on our way with confidence. Was I scared? Um . . . yes. Was I confident that my boss had provided me with the resources necessary to accomplish the mission, and that a team of teams surrounded me to execute the mission … without question. The operation did not come without turmoil, blood, sweat, and tears but we painted the square blue, and it was a deep and resilient blue.
6. Failure Equals Success. Everyone fails; this is how we learn. In my experience, many senior leaders in the Army are often quick to give the magical recipe to success that more than likely mirrors how they achieved professional success. These leaders mean well, but many times this advice is obsolete, e.g., evaluation rankings, “you’ll be okay, it worked out for me,” or “never leave the operational force, keep a rucksack on your back.” Instead, the truly “elite” leaders outline their failures and mishaps and what they learned from those mistakes. Everyone clearly understands based on their rank or position they were successful. One of my many failures as a leader in the Army was not reaching down fast enough to ensure that all soldiers at the lowest level heard from me, what my intent was, and/or command philosophy on what I expected for a healthy and cohesive climate. I had written these thoughts down and disseminated them as COVID locked the world down, but I did not personally follow up fast enough. I learned quickly after a few months that you cannot rely on all leaders to carry your message in the manner that you would communicate your own message and spent the second half of my command communicating directly down to all levels. I circulated to every training event possible, or subordinate locations during real world operations. There is a time to allow for failure, and there is a time where failure could cost lives. Understand the difference in environments and enable an environment that promotes innovation, healthy risk taking, and the opportunity to succeed while learning from failure. If you are the boss, you own the risk, deliberately assess the risk, and underwrite the risk with your subordinates. Your team will amaze you; I promise.
7. Self-Care. Last but far from least, take time for yourself routinely; it will only benefit the organization you lead. That time could be snagging an extra couple of hours of sleep once a week, playing ball with your kids, going for a long run, having dinner with your spouse or friend at your favorite restaurant, or rock climbing. The organization you lead requires you to make logical and sound decisions, invest in your mental, spiritual, and physical well-being. It will benefit those you lead and help you to serve the greater purpose of achieving the unit’s mission. No one will care for you like you or your immediate friends and family.
In conclusion, I have come to learn that life is not fair, nor is any organization completely. You cannot please everyone. Follow your heart, listen to others- truly listen, and empower junior leaders- they want to please their leadership. Our soldiers and employees want to train hard and be a valued member of an elite, successful organization. If they were missing the mark, it was generally because I did not communicate my vision or intent clearly and I needed to pause the action or organization and clarify myself. Sometimes it was even because I did not provide adequate resources to the problem set or effectively read the room to realize employee emotions with respect to the task. It is okay to admit when you are wrong or missing the mark, your soldiers or employees will respect you even more. You can propel your organization to success by demonstrating and encouraging sound followership, by striving to better understand your environment and its surroundings, by leading up and making the tough decisions to help solve greater organizational problems, by exercising effective communication, and by taking care of yourself to allow your organization to get the best you. Your people deserve your best. You deserve your best.
This publication is dedicated to all those brave souls I have had the privilege to serve alongside with, to those who made the ultimate sacrifice, and to the future brave souls that carry the fire.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.
Poetry and Art
Poetry and art from the warfighting community.
The Pacific Holds its Breath
By Tales from the Grid Square
There are worst places to be,
In a garrison Army,
Than a pacific paradise,
Half a world away.
Such luck to call a place home,
A great deal to have been dealt.
Diving beneath the turquoise waters.
Holding your breath.
This is a good place to relax,
A comforting place to dream,
And a fine place to start a family.
It’s hard to be unhappy in the tropical Sun,
While you’re bumming on a beach,
Payed by for by government funds.
The work here isn’t bad,
Some field exercises in the jungle,
and early release on Fridays.
The occasional short deployment,
To some foreign country or island,
Is more of an adventure than a hardship.
Tropic rains come and go,
Unlike the green that blooms,
Seemingly forever.
But it’s easy to forget in the land of Aloha,
That a dark storm grows on the horizon.
A dragon twists and slithers,
So far yet so close,
It's talons reaching outstretched,
As it bides it's time,
In the gathering tropical clouds.
When and where the storm makes landfall,
Only the dragon knows…
And it’s easy to forget you’re here on the wall,
A vigilant post disguised as a vacation.
As your children laugh and play in the surf,
And your wife sings from the garden.
Ignorance is bliss when you finally understand,
In silent horror as you watch over sleeping children.
Your home won’t be far from the FLOT.
A dragon has attacked the wall once before,
With the Rising Sun on its back.
Many men lay dead in the deeps embrace,
Forgotten islands their final resting place.
The dragon never dies it's just replaced,
Staring out over the vast Pacific.
But for right now,
As my family plays upon the wall.
We hold our breath.
FLOT: Forward Line of Troops
The World Today
In-depth analysis and journalism to educate the warfighter on the most important issues around the world today.
Hamas Motivations
By Tamin Fares
On October 7th, Hamas launched a multi-prong attack on Israel that stunned the world and caught the Israeli security apparatus completely by surprise. The attack consisted of a massive rocket barrage that overwhelmed the Israeli air defense network, followed by an aggressive ground attack that included the use of drones, para-gliders, and off-road vehicles. Several border crossings and Israeli military bases were captured in the initial fighting. Concurrently, Hamas fighters, exploiting breaches in the border, spread out into the surrounding countryside killing civilians indiscriminately. The terrorists then dug in, seizing key terrain in preparation for the inevitable counter-attack. The sophistication of Hamas’ operation, both in terms of armaments used, as well as tactics displayed, cannot be overstated. The question of motivation on the part of Hamas must then be asked. Why did they undertake this assault on Israel? Moreover, why did they enact such horrific violence against the civilian population?
Founded in 1987, Hamas’ stated goal is to liberate Palestine, including modern day Israel, from Israeli occupation and to establish an Islamic state in the area that is now Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip. Since its inception, Hamas has remained as adversarial to other Gaza factions as it has to the Israelis, often engaging in the extra-judicial killings of other Palestinians. In 2007, a protracted power struggle inside the Gaza Strip boiled over into five days of civil warfare, during which nearly 200 people, both fighters and civilians, were killed. The dead included 2 UN personnel. The end result saw Hamas in total control of the Gaza Strip, a state of affairs that has remained the status quo ever since.
This is not the first time Hamas has attacked Israel. In the late 80’s and early 90’s, they orchestrated a series of kidnappings, abducting and murdering Israeli soldiers and policemen in retaliation for Israel’s role in the al-Aqsa massacre. In 1992, over 400 members of Hamas were exiled from Gaza and sent to Lebanon by the Israeli government. While in Lebanon, the Hamas militants made contact with Shiite Hezbollah operatives, who taught them how to make suicide vests and car bombs. During this timeframe Iran, the world’s largest Shiite center of gravity, affirmed support for the Sunni militants and began funding them. Under pressure from the international community, Israel allowed the exiled militants to return to the Gaza Strip less than nine months later, where they promptly began a car bombing campaign against Israeli military targets.
In 1994, a radicalized Israeli settler massacred 29 muslim worshippers at prayer in Hebron. This marked a turning point in Hamas’ doctrine. Before the massacre, their only Israeli targets had been military personnel and equipment–although they had no compunction about using brutal tactics against their Palestinian rivals. Immediately following Hebron, Hamas launched a suicide bombing campaign that targeted and killed almost 200 Israeli civilians. The ensuing years have seen an escalation of the violence, including several armed uprisings and a policy of sustained indiscriminate rocket attacks. All of which culminated in the current conflict, which saw the mass murder of both Israeli and other Western civilians by Hamas.
Notably, this attack comes in the midst of warming relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, who provides almost 50% of the funding that goes to Hamas. One of Hamas’ strategic goals is undoubtedly to disrupt the reconciliation process and thus, ensure continued support from a long time benefactor. Another goal is to challenge Israel’s policy of deterrence while also puncturing the country’s bubble of security. An objective that was achieved within the first few hours of the attack.
The geo-strategic reality within the Mid East region must also be taken into account when explaining the actions of Hamas. As stated previously, despite being a Sunni organization, Hamas enjoys significant support from Shiite Iran. Both in terms of financial assistance, as well as from extensive training and weapons transfers. Hamas is yet another proxy in Iran’s regional cold war, that includes groups such as the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Fatemiyoun Division in Syria, and the Badr Corps in Iraq. It can be stated with near certainty that none of the above named groups would undertake an attack, let alone one as brazen as the one that took place October 7th, without the tacit approval – and material support – of the Iranian government.
So then the only question that remains is why? Why would the Iranians authorize such an attack? And more pressing, why would they authorize the random slayings of scores of Israeli and international civilians? Consider that operationally, within the first few hours of their incursion into Israel, Hamas had already achieved their key strategic goal of shock and awe. If they had stuck to purely military targets; border crossing, military bases and the like, they would have had the same level of success while not alienating the international community.
This leaves us with only one conclusion: Hamas deliberately escalated the conflict past the point of legitimate targets of war, in order to elicit an emotional response from Israel that could only end with a ground assault on the Gaza Strip.
Militants have been operating inside the Strip since the late 1960’s and Hamas has had de facto control of the territory since 2007. In that time they have turned Gaza, already one of the most densely packed urban areas on Earth, into a fortress that will require significant manpower to clear while consuming an unfathomably high cost in lives lost. The vast majority of casualties will be Palestinian civilians. It is inevitable. This is not an issue for Hamas, who see every dead Palestinian on TV as an IO victory. Meanwhile, they will mount a defense in depth, fighting from hidden tunnels for every square inch of ground, while the city is leveled around them.
It is clear that the Palestinians are pawns in a larger narrative, so what does Iran stand to gain? Beside the victory of seeing their most hated enemy bogged down in a costly urban fight, they will have opened up the region to wider conflict, which they will seek to exploit. They have already compelled a US response, which only stretches our already thin defense apparatus even thinner across the globe. They have moved the spotlight off Ukraine, where their ally, Russia, is now free to prosecute their war with much less scrutiny and potentially less western support to the Ukranians. Overall, this is only the opening move in a much larger strategy whose end goal remains to be seen.
One thing is certain however, that war on a scale not seen for over a half century is now closer than ever to becoming reality. There is active fighting happening right now on five out of seven continents. Often, between the proxy forces of great power rivals. As the complexity of global conflict increases, so does the possibility for catastrophic miscalculation.
How did Israeli Intelligence Fail to Anticipate Hamas’s Attack?
By Nikola Petkovski
The morning of 7 October in the Middle East began with the dawning of a new war, which will be brutal and with large civilian casualties. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, long-simmering, has reignited, and interesting and complicated times await the Middle East and the world.
Hamas and other Palestinian Islamist groups launched a complex and combined attack, codenamed "Al-Aqsa Flood", by land, sea, and air against Israel. This fell on the 50th anniversary of the start of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, in which Egypt and Syria were able to exploit the miscalculations of the Israeli leadership and take Israel by surprise.
Of course, what is happening between Israel and the Palestinians on the scale of what happened in 1973 is incomparable, but in my view, the events of that morning have also revealed major miscalculations by the Israeli military-political leadership and its intelligence services. It seems they were firmly convinced the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in response to any new Israeli attacks on the West Bank, would respond with maximum short-term rocket shelling of Israeli cities, and the possibility of ground attacks was not seriously considered.
Well, Israel's special services, which are considered to be the best in the world, as well as the General Staff, apparently overslept the preparation of such a complex operation by penetrating Palestinian attack groups into Israeli cities by land by destroying Israeli checkpoints, by sea with the help of boats and divers, and even by air using paragliders. But the Palestinians could not have prepared such a complex and combined military operation by themselves, they must have had the help of Iran and Hezbollah. Israel has suffered huge casualties, plus a serious blow to the image of Mossad, Shabbat, other secret services, and the Israeli army. Mobilization and the start of the military operation "Iron Swords" against the Gaza Strip have been announced. Israel will go all the way.
How Hamas caught Israel and its security services by surprise
The time of the start of the operation "Flood of Al-Aqsa" by the militants of Hamas was perfectly chosen - 06:30, Saturday, Shabbat, a holiday in Israel.
In the first phase, Israeli air defenses and remote-controlled surveillance cameras were fired upon with large-caliber machine guns, kamikaze drones, or bombs dropped by helicopters. Behind the border perimeter, Hamas saboteurs landed with paragliders and landed from speedboats in precisely designated zones, attacking the defenders of the Rabin Wall from behind, paralyzing local Israeli command posts (including the Gaza Division command post) and capturing/destroying some Israeli command staff in their homes. The command of the Israeli army was disorganized, and the chain of command was broken. The specially designated groups for the destruction of the wall around Gaza bulldozed certain points of the wall and the border perimeter, after which the assault groups with pickup trucks and motorcycles drove through Israeli territory, shooting left and right, spreading terror, death, and panic. They were followed by less mobile but more numerous groups of militants, who seized barracks/bases for the storage of Israeli army equipment and also established fortified points and positions in border settlements. Their de facto objective was to stop the mobile units of the Israeli army and allow the Hamas assault groups with the captured hostages to return to Gaza. This task was completed.
In addition to the above, Hamas launched massive rocket launches on Israeli cities, and these rockets were not only clearly technically improved over the previous period, but most importantly, there were far more of them than Israel expected. The massive missile attack "overwhelmed" Israel's Iron Dome air defense systems. They could not cope with the huge number of rockets, and Hamas rockets started exploding in Israeli cities.
Hamas Strategic Goals
By Eric (Shep) Sheppler
Since the Oct 7th attack on Israel by the Hamas organization the world has been enthralled by the potential implications of further action, and whether a major war in the Middle East could break out. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been a lightning rod on the geopolitical stage for decades, pitting state and non-state actors into separate ideological camps and continuously threatening the stability of the Middle East. However, the recent attack by Hamas and retaliatory strikes by the Israeli military have pushed the region towards large-scale state vs state conflict and forced vexing questions of the overall strategy and goals of the primary participants. This is especially the case for the initiator of the current hostilities, Hamas.
As a non-state actor who is in political control of an enclave with limited resources and abilities to project power, the discrepancy in traditional metrics for measuring strength between actors on the geopolitical stage is enormous when attempting to calculate Hamas’s strength. Despite its initial surprise success on Oct 7th (primarily against civilians) Hamas can never hope to compete with the Israeli state in any military realm. Their primary means of force projection are repurposed and cottage-made unguided rockets of the short to medium-range variety and small SOF-type cross-border incursions of the type seen in the recent attack. Though these tactics are capable of producing mass-casualty events and moderate infrastructure damage, they are incomparable with the level of military force that the IDF can bring to bear in an all-out war.
The non-state actors who have traditionally opposed the Israeli state have always benefited from the sympathies of the larger Arab community in the Middle East, having a huge amount of both state and non-state support. This support has often taken the form of arms, training, and other military aid. However, it has been decades since any Arab state has taken actual kinetic action against the Jewish state. They prefer instead to exert pressure through these non-state proxy forces, Hezbollah being the most prolific example. Hamas is also a beneficiary of Iranian support, and the possibility cannot be ruled out that they were taking instructions from Iranian state entities in launching their attack, as is commonly stated in American political commentary. This would make sense from the Iranian perspective as the recent thawing in Israeli-Saudi relations is a primary concern to Tehran and any Israeli counterstrikes into Palestinian territory would inevitably compromise such a détente.
Though the above hypothesis would possibly benefit Iranian national security concerns, it would accomplish little from the point of view of Hamas. The political leadership in Gaza would have to know and expect an overwhelming military response from Tel Aviv if their operation was a success. This was and has been the Israeli policy in dealing with Hamas for years, and the actions have become so common that Israeli citizens now refer to these events as “mowing the lawn”. Given this historical response, Hamas leadership had to know that an operation of this magnitude would provoke a military response completely disproportionate to anything the attacks could hope to achieve. It is unlikely that Hamas as an independent entity would be willing to sustain such damage, and possible destruction, to assuage Iranian concerns about their regional competitors.
What then is Hamas’ strategy in the quickly escalating conflict? Even if the situation does deteriorate into a full-scale war between ME states, Hamas leadership must know that their small sliver of territory will remain a primary target for Israeli ordnance. A lesser-discussed possibility is that they intended to provoke an overwhelming response and are in fact, waiting for an Israeli ground incursion. The last time the IDF went into Gaza the results were not as one-sided as they would have liked, with militant ATGM teams exacting a toll on IDF ground forces in the form of casualties and destroyed armor. It is possible Hamas is hoping to exceed their limited tactical success in 2014 and goad the IDF into an incredibly difficult house-to-house fight. A fight they think they can win by matching ATGM and drone-armed light infantry against a highly motivated and determined Israeli Army. This is a possibility as it wouldn’t be the first time that a state or non-state actor has become over-confident in its own abilities. Perhaps they assume that an Israeli incursion will inevitably force open military action from the Arab states, thus setting the stage for some kind of negotiated settlement ending with the long hoped-for independent Palestinian state.
Though the above strategy is more likely than the Iranian-ordered thesis, it is extremely unlikely to proceed in the way that Hamas leadership wants. The Arab states have shown a reluctance to become directly involved, with most only offering trifling statements of solidarity or humanitarian aid. Even Iran, though it has issued all the usual threats and rhetorical posturing, has offered off-ramps to war with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian saying that Iran “does not want further escalation”. Considering this, the Israeli Air Force has had over a week to demolish large chunks of Northern Gaza without significant action on a part of the Arab world beyond a few proxy-strikes on US facilities in Iraq and Syria and some cross-border activity from Hezbollah in Lebanon which, so far, the Israelis have not largely acted upon. Though a massive ground incursion may still happen, every day of delay gives the Israeli Air Force more time to shape the battlefield, kill Palestinian HVT’s, and destroy Gaza’s infrastructure. All of this makes any success for Hamas in such an engagement, even more unlikely.
Though the emerging conflict may be far from over, any overall strategy Hamas had leading up to Oct 7th has not played out as intended. If they were taking instructions from their Iranian benefactors, they are now paying an incredibly heavy price for it with no apparent benefit. While large-scale protests have erupted in support of their position in the Arab world, the governments of those same countries seem less inclined to act in any meaningful manner.
Escalate to De-escalate: Increased Conflict in the Middle East
By John M. Larrier
In the weeks since Hamas launched a significant, organized incursion into Israel the Saudi Arabians have withdrawn from a potential Israeli rapprochement process, the U.S. force posture in the region has increased drastically, rocket attacks on U.S. bases persist, and both Iranian and U.S. diplomats have made numerous trips to the region seeking to garner support or induce inaction from the many belligerents in the region. Many have asked the question. What’s next? Seeing as how the main belligerents are currently operating below the threshold for open conflict, what are the other possibilities?
The surge in U.S. military presence in the area raises concerns about the potential for further militarization of the conflict. An increased force posture can act as both a deterrent and a potential catalyst for further hostilities. This raises the question: can diplomacy effectively coexist with military buildup? Rocket attacks on U.S. bases demonstrate the volatile nature of the region. Such attacks not only pose an immediate threat to American forces but also complicate diplomatic endeavors, making the quest for de-escalation more challenging.
Amidst these tensions, Iranian and U.S. diplomats have been making numerous visits to the region, each with their own set of objectives. While some may see this as a positive step towards resolving the crisis through diplomacy, others may perceive it as a show of force or an attempt to garner support or inaction from regional powers. The region has become a diplomatic battleground, where strategic maneuvers and alliances could sway the course of events. While many believe that escalation might be the only solution to bring about change, as said before, it's crucial to recognize that the main belligerents are, for now, operating below the threshold of open conflict. It’s important to remember that Iranian diplomats may not be seeking de-escalation in the region, but maybe using the “escalate to de-escalate” strategy by daring the U.S to increase its involvement, knowing that this will almost certainly increase the involvement of other regional nations and actors.
Lastly, what effect will an Israeli invasion of Gaza have on these potentialities? Looking at the facts on the ground and Israel’s statements since the attack, short of U.S. intervention, Israel will most likely commence offensive operations in the coming weeks. Does Israel have the right to respond resolutely and with violence of action to Hamas’s attacks? Most assuredly they do, but seeing as an Israeli invasion of Gaza has been the stated threshold for increased involvement from Iran and other belligerents in the region, it would most definitely escalate/expand the conflict regionally.
Israel’s calculated strike campaign has already widened the conflict to include other regional actors such as the Houthis of Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and other militant organizations in Iraq. So far Iran seems content to combat Israel asymmetrically through their proxies but could increase its involvement once Israel commences ground operations into Gaza.
The weeks following Hamas’s incursion have set in motion a series of events that could lead to either escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East. The international community, including regional and global actors, must tread carefully, seeking to defuse tensions and find peaceful solutions in order to stop a broader regional conflict. As of right now, the question of "What's next" remains unanswered.
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This ends Volume 17, Edition 1, of the Lethal Minds Journal (01NOVEMBER2023)
The window is now open for Lethal Minds’ eighteenth volume, releasing December 1st, 2023.
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Well done, Worth. If I had the skill, I would have written something very similar.
We want to have regard for ourselves and others and a focus on the best in humanity. War changes our focus to contempt and our regard to a survival instinct for our in-group. Staying on the higher side of that line has been a struggle.
Doom