In This Issue:
Muqtata al-Sadr And The Struggle To Form the Iraqi Government: A Special Piece by S2 Forward
S2 Forward hasn’t slept at all the last fifteen days, but the end result is the single most comprehensive breakdown of the current political crisis in Iraq available to the unclassified world. We’ve included his breakdown for free to all subscribers.
The Americas : Covered in this issue by Meridian News
Inflation and price hikes cause confusion across the United States. For the first time in US history, a warrant is served to search the property of a former US president. A long time American opponent in the western hemisphere has to re-evaluate its position following catastrophic damage to essential energy infrastructure.
Europe : Covered in this issue by Croatoan Report
Serbia reignites decade old tensions with its Balkan neighbors, with instigation and support from the Russian Federation. Chinese aggression towards Taiwan draws in more and more Western Powers, setting the stage for global conflict.
East Asia and Oceania : Covered in this issue by Good Political
China continues to posture, but so far has avoided outright war. Though direct military confrontations seem unlikely, a Cold War is on the horizon for China and the United States, with Asia and her sovereign countries being the battleground. Global powers are being drawn in to the conflict, forced to choose sides, and triggering conflict elsewhere around the world.
Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by Analyze Educate
The CIA kills the last extant 9/11 plotter and latest Al Qaeda head. The Taliban discovers the difficulties of fighting insurgency, and ISIS rears its head in the tribal heartlands of Afghanistan. Azerbaijan and Armenia go back to war after a brief, and failed ceasefire.
Africa : Covered in this issue by Northern Provisions
Chinese and Russian influence across the sub continent causes a rise in regional instability. Terror groups leverage the increase in regional competition to expand their own footprint. Western military and diplomatic assets begin to return to the region, but with resource shortage and great power push back, success is not easy to come by.
The Big Points:
The Highlight: Choosing Sides
Welcome back to the age of great power competition ladies and gentlemen. In the east corner, wearing the red trunks, we have China and the Russian Federation. Chinese and Russian influence spreads across the globe, propping up states willing to buy into the Sino-Russian agenda, or trade valuable resources for much needed economic support. Both the CCP and the Russian Federation have capitalized on the widespread global resource crisis to coerce, cajole, and in some cases extort, support from smaller, but regionally important nations.
Fighting out of the west corner, in the blue trunks, is the NATO and partnered alliances. As war continues to rage across Ukraine, and Russian forces continue to flail unsuccessfully against committed Ukrainian troops armed with Western weapons, Western attention begins to turn to Asia. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan to demonstrate US support for the Republic of China triggered a vocal condemnation from the CCP but little concrete military action. But with military drills still scheduled, and tensions high, Western powers are readying themselves for a war in the Pacific.
The Long Term Concern: Great Power Competition
Since the start of the war in Ukraine in mid February, we’ve been documenting a gradual drawing of lines across the international community. first concerning support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With continuing resource shortages worldwide, Russia, Iran, and the CCP have begun to wield their influence to pull resource dependent countries directly into their sphere of influence. Expect conflicts to pop up between Western backed states and Eastern backed states in resource deprived regions like Africa, the Mid East, and the Pacific Islands.
See Also:
Ukrainian forces have successfully continued their offensives into Kherson, and stopped Russian forward movement in the Donbass. Russian war vessels have begun evacuating civilians from Sevastopol,
Chinese military drills continue around Taiwan, although CCP actions seem not to be living up to CCP propaganda promises.
The city of Tijuana is on fire this week as Cartel Jalisco Nuevo Generacion (CJNG) goes to war with the Mexican government over the arrest of high level cartel members.
Israel and the Palestinian territories are in an open shooting war, the first since 2008. Most insurgent is driven by Iranian backed militia groups, likely in response to the belligerent stance Israel has taken on the Iran nuclear issue.
Russia has backed out of the START treaty, ending a decades long tradition mutual nuclear non proliferation between the Russian Federation and the United States.
Bank runs spread across China as sudden drop in the Chinese real estate market causes mass bankruptcies in Chinese state backed businesses. Resistance to CCP anti Covid-19 policies and mass detention garners mass protest and resistance from the Chinese people.
Muqtata al-Sadr And The Struggle To Form The Iraqi Government
Bottom Line Up Front: Muqtata al-Sadr’s call to dissolve Iraq’s government has the possibility the incite violence between Sadr’s supporters and Iran-backed militias. Additionally, if Iran-backed politicians seize control of parliament, Iraq may see a resurgence of Sunni terrorist organizations. Sadr and his supporters are demanding a complete change to the Iraqi political system – changing it from a consensus organization to a majority organization.
Over the past several weeks, protesters loyal to Muqtata al-Sadr have stormed the Green Zone and occupied the parliament building for four days in order to derail Sadr’s rivals from forming a government. After those four days, the protesters have been conducting a large-scale sit-in outside of the building demanding the government to be dissolved and to host early elections. According to Iraq’s constitution, parliament can only be dissolved by a majority vote.
"I am certain that the majority of the population is exasperated by the ruling class in its entirety, including some (politicians) belonging to my movement", Sadr said. "From now on there will be no more old-guard politicians, whatever their affiliation," he added. Sadr went on to say that "The revolutionaries and protesters participating in the sit-in must stay and continue their camp until the demands are realized". In the initial storming of the Green Zone, or the International Zone of Baghdad, 100 protesters and 25 security forces personnel were injured. The Green Zone is a heavily fortified 10k section of Baghdad that hosts various governmental buildings and embassies.
Who is Muqtata al-Sadr?
Muqtata al-Sadr is a prominent Shia cleric who led an armed insurgency against the US occupation in Iraq. He commanded the group Mahdi Army/Jaysh al-Mahdi, which was later rebranded as the Promise Day Brigades when the group disbanded in 2008.
The vast majority of his followers are impoverished Shia’s - Muqtata al-Sadr inherited his mass following from his father, Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr, who was a prominent cleric who openly opposed Saddam Hussein in the Shia rebellions in the 1990’s. Grand Ayatollah al-Sadr was assassinated on February 19, 1999. Muqtata al-Sadr was greatly influenced by his father’s conservative beliefs and by those of his father-in-law, Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr, founder of the Islamic Daʿwah Party, who was executed in 1980 for his opposition to Saddam Hussein.
Sadr opposes all foreign interference, especially from the United States and Iran, and accuses his rivals of corruption. While Sadr maintains a hostile attitude toward Iran, he still considers the US as his first enemy in Iraq and has blamed them for the killing of thousands of his followers in the years since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq. In addition to his millions of followers, he allegedly has a thousands-strong militia and wields enormous power within the Iraqi state, where his loyalists control money and power. Saraya al-Salam, or “the Peace Companies”, is the revitalized form of Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army/Promised Day Brigade in the face of the rise of ISIS in 2014.
Why are there protests?
Since the October 2021 parliamentary elections, Iraqi politicians have failed to form a government. To form a government in Iraq, parliament is required to have two-thirds majority to elect a president and prime minister. This is done by political parties creating alliances in order to reach that aforementioned two-thirds majority vote. In a total of 329 seats, alliances would have to reach 219 seats to reach a two-thirds vote.
On October 17th, 2021, Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission announced the results of Iraq's elections:
The Sadrist movement (Muqtata al-Sadr) lead by won 73 seats
Independent candidates and representatives of the October Movement/ Tishreen Movement won 43 seats
The Taqaddum Coalition won 37 seats
The State of Law Coalition won 33 seats
The Kurdistan Democratic Party won 31 seats
The Fatah Alliance won 17 seats
The Kurdistan Alliance, which includes the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and other Kurdish forces, won 17 seats
The Azem Alliance won 14 seats
Other smaller political parties altogether won 64 seats
After the election, coalitions began forming their alliances, wherein two major groups were formed: The Saving the Homeland Alliance and the Coordination Framework.
Sadr’s political alliance, the Saving the Homeland alliance, consisted of his Sadrist movement, the Al Siyada Alliance (the largest Sunni alliance consisting of the Taqaddum Coalition led by parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbusi and the Azem Alliance led by Khamis Al Khanjar) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by Massoud Barzani. Saving the Homeland alliance maintained the largest political alliance at the time but did not maintain the majority vote within parliament and was blocked by the Coordination Framework, a bloc consisting of Iran-backed groups and militias which is led by the former Prime Minister Nori al-Maliki. The Coordination Framework mostly consisted of Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law Coalition, Hadi al-Ameri’s Fatah Alliance, which is associated with some of the Popular Mobilization Units factions and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).
The remainder of the parliament seats that are neither associated with the Saving the Homeland or Coordination Framework alliances are independents or smaller political parties.
To break it down, Saving the Homeland had 155 seats and it needed 219 to create a government.
It should be noted that after the parliamentary elections, on November 7th, 2021, there was an attempted assassination of Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi using two armed drones – the attacked left al-Kadhimi unharmed but several members of his security team were injured. Many people blame this attack on Iranian-backed militias aligned to the Coordination Framework, who have been protesting in the Green Zone at the time after rejecting the outcome of the elections; in this election, the Coordination Framework lost two-thirds of their seats in comparison to the previous election. Additionally, the protesters attempted to enter the Green Zone and one protester affiliated with the Asaib Ahl al-Haq was killed. Addressing al-Kadhimi, the leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Qais al-Khazali stated that, “The blood of martyrs is to hold you accountable... The protesters only had one demand against fraud in elections. Responding (with live fire) means you are the first responsible for this fraud.”
In early February, Iraqi legislators failed to elect a prime minister or president, many of them allied with Sadr, foiled the attempt by boycotting the parliament session. Only 58 of the legislature’s 329 members showed up.
"To complete the ongoing consultations and dialogues between the political blocs, we decided not to attend the session of the Council of Representatives (parliament) for tomorrow, Monday," the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), headed by the Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani who won 33 seats in the Oct. 10 elections, said in a statement. The al-Siyada Alliance leader said in a separate statement that they have decided not to participate in the Council of Representatives session to support dialogue among political parties. On February 5th, the Sadrist Movement also decided to boycott the parliament session on February 7th.
The February 7th meeting was boycotted by most of the parliamentary groups after the temporary suspension of the candidate proposed by the Kurdistan Democratic Party, former Finance Minister Hoshyar Zebari, for a long-standing corruption case.
On March 23rd, 2022, the head of the Sadrist bloc Hassan al-Adhari announced, "our candidate for Presidency is Rebar Ahmed (the Current Minister of Interior in Kurdistan), and for the position of Prime Minister is Muhammad Jaafar Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr (the current Iraqi Ambassador to London)." Muhammad Jaafar Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr is the cousin of Muqtata al-Sadr.
Several days later, on March 26th, Iraq's parliament failed again to vote for a president after Iran-backed groups boycotted the session. Only 202 members of parliament out of 329 were present, which is less than the necessary two-thirds quorum needed to choose a new president for the mostly ceremonial post, while 126 lawmakers boycotted the session.
On March 30th, Iraqi lawmakers failed for a third time to elect a new national president for lack of a quorum, officials said, prolonging Iraq’s ongoing country's political crisis. VOA reported that only 178 out of 329 lawmakers were present in parliament on the 30th, where 219 members are required for the two-thirds quorum required for the vote. The Iraqi Federal Supreme Court gave a deadline of April 6th to elect a president. The following day, on March 31st, Sadr announced that has given 40 days for the Coordination Framework to discuss and come to an agreement with other parties (aside from the Sadrist bloc) in Iraq’s parliament on forming a new government. This expired on May 10th after the parliament failed to form a government. Sadr then called on the Iraqi parliament's independent members to form the country's next government after the Coordination Framework failed create a government during Sadr's 40-day ultimatum which excluded his alliance. Sadr in a statement asked the legislature's 43 independent members to form a government "within a maximum period of 15 days", which, again, failed to create a government on May 25th.
On June 12th, Muqtata al-Sadr ordered his parliamentary bloc (73 out of the assembly's 329 seats) to resign en masse to protest a persisting political deadlock eight months after the elections were held. Sadr said in a handwritten statement that his request to lawmakers to resign was "a sacrifice from me for the country and the people to rid them of the unknown destiny". Sadr also stated that, “This step is considered a sacrifice for the homeland and the people to save them from an unknown fate… If the survival of the Sadrist bloc is an obstacle to the formation of the government, then all representatives of the bloc are ready to resign from Parliament.”
According to Iraqi laws, if any seat in parliament becomes vacant, the candidate who obtains the second highest number of votes in their electoral district would replace them. This resulted in the Coordination Framework becoming the largest bloc within the parliament. After Sadr’s alliance left the parliament, this caused the political grid lock to be lifted and the Coordination Framework was able to nominate a prime minister; Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, a former minister and ex-provincial governor, was nominated for prime minister on July 25th, 2022. Leaders of the Coordination Framework welcomed Sudani’s nomination, which includes Qais Khazali of Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), head of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) Falih al-Fayadh and Abu Ala al-Walai of Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada (KSS). Al-Sadr has rejected his candidacy for prime minster.
“Al-Sudani just represents a very convenient excuse for Muqtada al-Sadr to voice his displeasure with the entire Coordination Framework and the political system in Iraq,” Marsin Alshamary, a research fellow the Harvard Kennedy School, told Al Jazeera in an interview. “He would have done this if anyone else were nominated. Al-Sudani actually represents one of the least controversial figures from the Coordination Framework.”
On July 27th, two days after al-Sudani was nominated for Prime Minister, Muqtata al-Sadr’s followers stormed the Green Zone and occupied the parliament building. Hours after his followers occupied parliament, al-Sadr issued a statement on Twitter telling them their message had been received and "to return safely to your homes". Since then, Sadr’s supports have been conducting a peaceful sit-in protest within the Green Zone. Al-Monitor reported that Dr. Jawad al-Musawi, a parliament member from the Sadrist bloc, said that the parliament protest had served to “prevent corrupt parties and losers in elections from forming a consensus government or a quota government because this type of government has greatly harmed Iraq and fostered the spread of corruption from 2003 until today.” Dr. al-Musawi stated that, “new elections will help to effect change and amend some articles of the constitution,” with the focus on “preventing the corrupt from participating in the elections.” One of the major reasons driving the protests was to change the entire political system, and to allow the largest political bloc to form the majority government, rather than having at least two-thirds of all parties agree on the nomination of the President and Prime Minister.
On July 28th, while Sadr and his supporters were calling for a new poll and early elections, the Coordination Framework stated it "affirms its support to any constitutional way to resolve the political crisis and realize the interests of the people, including early elections." But "a national consensus on the question and providing a safe environment" were pre-requisites for such polls, it said. The Coordination Framework stressed the importance of "not disrupting the functioning" of constitutional institutions, a clear reference to the occupation of parliament by Sadr's followers.
On August 2nd, Hadi al-Ameri, the head of the Al-Fatah coalition, called on al-Sadr to engage in dialogue amid the protests, requesting both sides to "employ logic, reason, wisdom, and restraint, and to find solutions to the differences between them through serious and constructive dialogue." Ahmed al-Mutayri, the head of al-Sadr movement’s political bureau, subsequently rejected the call and urged al-Ameri to withdraw from the Coordination Framework. Al-Mutayri said that “Any dialogue is conditional on the withdrawal of al-Ameri and his group from the Coordination Framework”.
Al-Sadr’s official spokesman, Salah al-Obeidi, said, "The Coordination Framework's calls for dialogue are a new attempt to deceive and the instincts of the leaders of the framework prompted them to bypass their own project that they proposed, which is that the next government should be purely for independents, more than a month before the resignation of the Sadrist bloc."
On August 3rd, Sadr delivered a speech stated that he has no interest in negotiating with his rivals.
“Don’t defer to their gossips that I don’t want a dialogue, because we tried dialogue with them but it didn’t result in anything for us or for the country. Dialogue with them has brought nothing but destruction, corruption, and dependency to the country, despite their pledges and signatures,” Sadr said in a televised speech in Najaf. “There is no point of that dialogue, especially after people have spoken their free and spontaneous word.”
The Middle East Eye reported that Sadrist political and military leaders say that they are fully aware that their opponents will not remain silent and that a military confrontation is very likely, claiming that they expect violence and are ready for it.
"Sadr is ready to go to the end, and he is also prepared for the worst-case scenario," one Sadrist leader told the Middle East Eye, describing Sadr as angry at his opponents "to the point of hatred… He will not be satisfied until he hurts them. He will continue to escalate until they admit their mistake and admit that he is one of the most prominent players in the political process and Iraq as a whole," the Sadrist leader said. "We will not attack anyone, and we will not start a fight. Our orders are clear in this regard, but the matter completely changes in the case of self-defense. We will not stand by and watch if someone assaults us."
On August 10th, Sadr stated via his Twitter account that the judiciary "must dissolve parliament by the end of next week... if not, the revolutionaries will take another stance," – Sadr didn’t elaborate what the consequences would entail.
Conclusion:
Sadr most likely does not want a conflict between different Shia organizations and is attempting to use pressure from his supporters by orchestrating protests. Sadr has already demonstrated his ability to control his supporters when they occupied, and then subsequently vacated, the parliament building during the beginning of the protests in the Green Zone. In regards to the formation of the Iraqi government, there are multiple possible scenarios: 1) Sadr cedes to the Coordination Framework and allows the formation of the government, 2) Sadr doesn’t cede to the Coordination Framework, and 3) prolonged stalemate and continued protests.
Possible Scenario 1) If Sadr cedes to the Coordination Framework, wherein the government forms and begins passing laws, the Iraqi government will most likely alienate Sunni’s, which may result in a resurgence of Sunni terrorist organizations in Sunni dominated provinces or sectarian violence increases across the country. Additionally, Iran will further entrench itself within Iraq’s government, which could be used to politically expel US and Coalition Forces from the country, support the Iranian land bridge to Lebanon, and likely be used to support Iranian proxies across the middle east.
Possible Scenario 2) If Sadr doesn’t cede to the Coordination Framework and continues to orchestrate protests across Iraq, it is possible that Sadr aligned organizations, primarily his militia Saraya al-Salam, may instigate violence with the AAH, KH, KSS, or other Iranian-backed militias within the PMF. Clashes may occur in areas where Sadr has influence, such as Sadr City and Najaf. Sadr-aligned Shia’s and Coordination Framework-aligned Shia’s may become more hostile as Shia’s begun to increase the division amongst themselves, arguing pro-nationalist/anti-foreign intervention policies against the pro-Iran Coordination Framework. This scenario has the possibility to increase the coordination between Sunni Arabs and Kurdish organizations with Shia Sadrists, with the potential to see Sunni militias and the Kurdish forces cooperating with Saraya al-Salam if hostilities began. In short, this scenario will most likely lead to a civil war unless prominent Shia clerics, such as Grand Ayatollah Sistani brokers peace. Additionally, if Sadr refuses to allow the government to be formed or continues to incite protests across Iraq, this increases the likelihood of Iranian-backed militias attempting to assassinate him, much like what happened to Prime Minister al-Khadhimi in November 2021. If the assassination is successful, his followers will almost certainly revere him as a martyr and will escalate hostilities towards Iranian-backed militias. Furthermore, with the refusal to allow the formation of the government, Sadr will most likely attempt to expand the Saving the Homeland alliance to the smaller political parties and the independent seats in order to reach the two-thirds majority vote.
Possible Scenario 3) If the Coordination Framework refuses to dissolve but refuses to form a government in fear of reprisal from Sadr, this will most likely increase instability within Iraq from the lack of government support and cause more Iraqis to support Sadr’s movement. This scenario will likely begin pulling support from the other Shia factions within the Coordination Framework, such as the Fatah Alliance – Sadr will most likely call for more protests and continuously attempt to fracture the Coordination Framework. This outcome also has the possible outcome where Sadr becomes a target from Iranian-backed militias1.
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