Bulletin From The Borderlands
Bulletin From The Borderlands
15 July 2022
Note from Lethal Minds:
Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.
Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.
In This Issue:
The Americas : Covered in this issue by Northern Provisions
Foreign influence, narco violence and instability, corruption, and the beginning of a new era in Central and South American politics
Europe : Covered in this issue by Croatoan Report
The biggest war in Europe since WW2 threatens to expand. Food and fuel shortages across Europe drive growing civil unrest in Libya and North Africa.
East Asia and Oceania : Covered in this issue by Alcon S2
A Japanese Prime Minister is assassinated. China continues to push towards war with Taiwan. Political unrest and insurgency remain common trends across the South Pacific.
Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by S2 Forward
Man created water shortages threaten political stability in Iraq. Iran defies the world in general, and Israel in particular by continuing its Uranium enrichment program despite negotiations.
Africa : Covered in this issue by Meridian News
Nigeria’s economy is hobbled by a growing black market oil trade. A new generation of foreign powers seek to exploit Africa’s resources for their own gain. Rebels and refugees threaten stability across Central Africa, and Sudan seeks a way to achieve a functioning democracy.
The Big Points:
The Highlight: Global Resource Shortages
Across all areas, the past year has been an evolving story of resource shortages(particularly of fuel, water, and food). Major conflicts in resource producing areas like Ukraine, a global grain supplier, have in turn caused conflicts in resource deprived areas, which is in turn fueling the cycle of conflict. Resource rich countries are leveraging their surpluses to exert influence in developing regions like Africa, the Mid East, and Southeast Asia. Expect to see countries like China use their food supplies to buy support in Central and Southern Africa, as well as along their ‘Belt and Road’ regions.
The Long Term Concern: Inflation and Political Division
As shortages bite, and inflation drives frustration in wealthy nations, solving global conflicts and shortage crises is becoming an increasingly Sisyphean endeavor. Without solid and reliable coalitions of partners to dedicate resources to solving global issues, expect conflict to grow more common.
See Also:
The delivery of large numbers of weapons from Western nations has led to a growing black market trade in highly advanced weapon systems.
The assassination of a major Japanese political figure, and its celebration across China, is likely to fuel a rise of pro militarist/anti Chinese attitudes in Japan.
Russian aggression towards Ukraine is driving the thought processes behind the forming anti Chinese coalition in the South Pacific.
Iran continues to pursue uranium enrichment, and Israel continues to threaten action. As conditions inside Iran continue to deteriorate (see water and food shortages, feeding political unrest) expect the Iranian leadership to become more and more bellicose as they seek to force a good negotiating position for themselves with the West.
Russia continues to lose men and materiel in what was supposed to be a one week war. With Western weapons flowing into the hands of the Ukrainian Army, Russian military gains over the past two weeks amounting to 40 square kilometers, and Ukrainian forces counter attacking towards Kherson and Izyum, there is still no end in sight for the largest land war in Europe since WW2.
The Americas
La Nuevo Era
In January of this year, the new year rolled in with statements from Russian officials threatening troop deployments to Cuba and Venezuela. It’s been close to sixty years since the Cuban Missile Crisis under John F. Kennedy. As I write this on June 15, 2022, Nicaragua has since announced they have approved the arrival of Russian troops, planes and ships for joint training. It’s no secret Russia has been growing or expressing its desire to grow its ties with Central and South American countries.
They’re not alone, however. The People’s Republic of China has long been growing its connections and relations with Central and South American countries. Russia and China have essentially been picking up the slack we left behind. While American gaze focused on wars and conflicts in the greater Middle East, they’ve been expanding friendships with our neighbors. We have had a minimal footprint in South America, small Army detachments and the Marines’ Special Purpose MAGTF Southern Command which sent Marines and Sailors on various missions in or benefitting countries like Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and El Salvador. This task force engaged in capacity building, engineering, humanitarian relief, disaster relief and joint partnership training or advising. This MAGTF ended due to budget cuts.
While smaller rotations of United States Army units continue in Central and South America on similar operations, the US footprint in the region has been drastically reduced. Prior to the February 24 invasion of Ukraine, western leaders spoke proudly and boldly about bringing Ukraine into the European Union and NATO, there were already rotations of US troops in Ukraine. This put American troops in Russia’s backyard - something Eisenhower and MacArthur could have only dreamt of doing. The troops were pulled out shortly before the invasion as tensions rose and Russian troop build up on the border reached highs. When this happened, I began questioning what America’s response would be, given the same situation and circumstances but reversed. If Russian troops were on Mexican soil, training and advising Mexican troops under an anti-American government, while talking of bringing Mexico into a Russian formed, anti-American military alliance, what would America’s response be? Would the First Marine Division be rolling into Mexico City the way Russian troops advanced towards Kyiv? Would Marines and Sailors land at Veracruz as they had done before, the way Russian Marines were staged in the Black Sea off the coast of Odesa?
Truth be told, I don’t know how we would act. I do know that it would alter many things. As we see grain shortages affected from the blockade of Ukraine, how much produce would be blocked that America is reliant on? Of course, this isn’t aimed to be alarmist material predicting this scenario from actually coming to fruition. However, we could lose security guarantees, resources and trade agreements by a lack of engagement with our neighbors and opportunities seized by our enemies. Of course, not every negative effect would be announced on an open stage. Plenty is done behind the scenes. Mexico has not only offered better trade and infrastructure agreements to the Chinese on open books, but their instability and corruption is exploited by the PRC. Fentanyl, which killed 56,000+ Americans in 2020 continues to be pumped across the border, manufactured by both China and Mexico. Chinese officials have also been arrested in recent years on money laundering and human trafficking charges in Mexico and the United States. Sophisticated networks are being made, both legitimately and illegitimately. Legitimate investments are also high. Chinese foreign direct investments in Mexico reached $189 billion in the year of 2020.
Outside of Mexico, China has sold military weapons, equipment and aircraft to countries like Venezuela, Argentina, and Bolivia. We also saw China refuse COVID-19 vaccinations to Central or South American countries who still held relations with Taiwan. These efforts are part of a bigger picture - the expansion of the Chinese Empire, and while mainstream outlets and politicians focus on the “Indo-Pacific” and China’s island expansions, they should also heed the warnings just south of us. America has missed opportunities to engage with our neighbors, build better relations, and work together on American (alike) security. Moving forward, we can only hope we build, expand, and cultivate these opportunities to the best of our abilities, not only to help our neighbors, but also to ensure our own security.
Western and Eastern Europe
Belarusian Mobilization
The Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced that "mobilization exercises" will take place from through July along their border with Ukraine. The current exercise is to test the overall readiness in combat capabilities of their reserve force. Since January, Belarus has conducted multiple military readiness exercises, both independently and with the Russian military. The current drill is an extension of a previous exercise which tested “the issue of notification and sending citizens to military units", defensive capabilities, and integrity of their officer corps.
Minsk repeatedly stated that their activities are defensive in nature and not for a dry run of offensive operations in Ukraine. However, Kiev believes their northern neighbor is planning for a more nefarious end state. In response to these accusations, Belarus’ MoD stated:
"Last year, a similar annual exercise was held with the military commissariats of Mogilev Oblast. The purpose is to check the readiness of military commissariats to carry out their assigned tasks. Despite the increase in the duration of exercises on the training grounds, the Belarusian army is still not ready for offensive operations. The only thing that military training has had a positive effect on is the ability to defend."
As the Russo-Ukrainian war continues, international figurehead’s suspect Belarus may join their Russian allies and attack Ukraine. Earlier in 2022, Belarus conducted several large-scale excursions with the Russian army along the Ukrainian border; which concluded days before Moscow launched their “Special Military Operation”. Additionally, Belarusian President Lukashenko previously stated that his forces may need to advance into Western Ukraine to ensure it is not "chopped off by the West." While no official statement regarding an offensive has been made, Lukashenko continues to purchase Russian S-400's, extend military readiness drills, created small "people's militias" that would be used against Ukraine, and created a new military command along Ukraine’s border. Lukashenko also mentioned that the war has "dragged on" and that it is difficult to imagine a world where every neighbor of Ukraine is not "immersed in this issue." He has increasingly used aggressive dialogue as exercises continue.
"The West is bringing the world closer to the abyss of a big war where there will be no winner. The events that are unfolding around Belarus and Russia today require extreme vigilance and concentration. Led by the United States, the Western countries have been destroying the system of global security consistently, methodically and even against their own national interests and wishes of the peoples. Apparently, the newly-minted 'crusaders' of the North Atlantic Alliance suddenly decided that the time is right for another 'Drang nach Osten (spread to the east)', forgetting how similar campaigns ended for their historical predecessors.”
– Lukashenko
However, Lukashenko’s sable rattling statement is not complemented by the current state of his military. It is suspected that a majority of the Belarusian military is against military operations in Ukraine after witnessing Russian causality numbers rise. I’ll-equipped and undertrained, If Belarus does go in, it is unknown how well they will cooperate with Russian forces and how effective they would be in combat. During their joint exercises, Belarusian forces did not view their Russian counterparts highly and performed poorly. Additionally, Lukashenko fired Major General Alexander Shkirenko, the man in charge of mobilization. It is likely resulting from the military underperforming or failing to meet readiness requirements. While no official word from the MoD has been shared regarding performance, NATO believes the military is not capable of extended combat operations.
Overall, Minsk invading Ukraine remains unknown. The war is increasingly unpopular in Belarus as international sanctions impact daily life for both the military and civilian population. Minks’ close relationship with Moscow may be the deciding factor in a green light. For Ukraine, a second front opening in the north would damage supply lines from Europe, and be forced to redirect personnel destined for Donbas and Kherson to combat a new foe; putting their counter offensive in Donbas at risk of failure.1
Libya’s Failed Election Process
In June, Libya failed to hold their first democratically held Presidential election since the fall of the Qaddafi era. The election was postponed multiple times due to the recently concluded civil war (2011-2020), and internal political turmoil. Libya has been split between the Western backed Government of National Accord (GNA) and Russian/Middle Eastern backed House of Representatives (HOR) which co-run the country through an interim government based in Tripoli. Previously, the elections were set for December 2021 but was delayed as the current interim government could not agree on qualifications to who can run and who can vote. Several reasons for the current postponement included:
An attempt to bar military and dual citizens from voting
Failing to meet in the middle regarding all previously mentioned/outlined political talking points
The refusal of incumbent Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah (aged 63) to step down
“Despite the progress in this week’s negotiations between the heads of the respective chambers, disagreement persists on the eligibility requirements for the candidates in the first presidential elections. I urge the two chambers to overcome the pending disagreement as soon as possible. I also continue to urge all actors and parties in Libya against taking any precipitous action and emphasize that calm and stability must be maintained.”
– Stephanie Williams, UN special adviser on Libya following the stalled election.
Additionally, a key issue revolves around Libya’s oil export and foreign influence. Historically, Libya was a major supplier of crude oil to Europe (6.2%), but the war and internal corruption rapidly reduced exportation. Khalifa Haftar (aged 78) commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA), leader of the HOR and US citizen was most likely to win the election due to his solidified control over Eastern Libya, total control of oil fields and quasi pro-Russian position. By controlling the oil and having support of the military, Haftar aimed to strong arm the country into delivering him victory by halting oil production by 70%, throwing the already fragile economy into freefall. The current United Nations backed interim government based in Tripoli likely knew this was the predicted outcome and attempted to keep the military and dual citizens from voting for this reason. The interim government is likely to delay the election until Haftar steps down, or dies to buy themselves time.
A majority of western Libyans suspect a President Haftar may return the country to a Qaddafi era type state. Two previous attempts at national elections were delayed due to Haftar’s LNA offensives against the west. However, previous UN interim governments were both unpopular and corrupt, leading many in the country to align themselves with Haftar. A disorganized and unpopular UN controlled government is not attractive in the eyes of a majority of the country. It is suspected that most would prefer a return to the Qaddafi era which provided universal healthcare, stable work environment and higher quality of life. While western Libyans are often more Western aligned in thought, without unity within the community Haftar’s vision is likely to win out. However, during the war, Haftar stabilized the east and provided suitable civil functionality but was unable to retain captured ground due to his overstretched military.
In 2018, Russia’s Wagner Group hired to train LNA personnel and to provide security at key logistical points (ports/oil fields). Through this, he began building a relationship with Russia as Russian made weapons and economic aid began supporting his political and military ambitions. In Libya, Wagner established military outposts near major cities along the coast line which are used for oil exports. Since 2021, Wanger has utilized Benghazi as a key staging point to support their operations in Mali. Wagner’s advice and assist operation in Mali follows the French withdrawal in December and relies on Libya to be an in continent staging ground.
Prior to their invasion of Ukraine in February, Russia supplied 45% of the EU's natural gas; and with an ongoing oversight position in Libya, can use this to their advantage. In Europe, gas prices continue to rise as the Russo-Ukrainian war continues. Russia received sanctions as NATO and the EU attempted to hinder Russia’s war effort. However, as Russia quasi owns 50% of Europe’s gas intake, they may use this tool to force the EU and NATO to terminate and or severely reduce their support for Ukraine. Nations like Germany or Italy are heavily reliant on imports and are contributing in Ukraine’s war effort. Even though Europe plans to reduce Russian oil intake to zero by the end of the decade, as this current situation stands, they run the risk of national civil unrest. Overall, as Europe is tasked with a geo-political dilemma, Libya faces the potential to become a Russian satellite state, like Syria or Belarus.2
Food Shortage
Rising inflation coupled with troubled logistical support regarding food exports could lead to an estimated one billion at risk for starvation (up 25% since January). Additionally, the cost of fertilizer and grain are up nearly 20%. This shortage is putting many in underdeveloped regions at risk for starvation. In total, nearly 83 countries are on the World Bank watch list for significant issues following the impact of COVID-19 and the current food shortage.
Simply put, the catalyst at play is the Russo-Ukrainian war. Prior to February , Russia and Ukraine accounted for nearly one third of global grain production; while Russia and Belarus are historic centers of fertilizer distribution. As the war continues, regions dependent on food imports such as Asia, Africa, South America, and the Middle East, are already feeling the repercussions of Russian expansionism. Ukraine, knowing their impact on global stability, has repeatedly attempted to make a deal with Russia to allow for these goods to transit through the port of Odessa through the black sea.
"We are two steps away from an agreement with Russia. "We are in the final phase and now everything depends on Russia."
- Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba
However, it is assessed that Russia targeted Ukrainian farms and agricultural centers and blockaded sea ports to halt production and distribution. Shipments from these former Soviet states rely on access to the Bosporus straight, which is owned by Turkey, a NATO member. Turkey is leveraging their position to bring both parties together in order to negotiate a trade deal. Regardless of the current outcome, the Russo-Ukrainian war has disrupted global trade and food production which will lead to all time high prices through at least 2024.
“Domestic price inflation continues to rise around the world—with 94% of low-income, 89% of lower-middle-income, 83% of upper-middle-income, and 70% of high-income countries experiencing high food price inflation (greater than 5%) and many seeing double-digit inflation. In most countries, food price inflation exceeded overall inflation.”
– The World Bank
Several Asian, African, South American, and Middle Eastern nations dependent on Russo-Ukrainian grain (nearly 80%) will receive hundreds of millions from the World Bank to curb rising food costs. According to the latest World Bank report, nearly half of all people in developing countries are already facing food shortages. Citizens in developing economies spend a majority of their total income on food and basic goods. Without access to these items, the door for economic pressure and large-scale civil unrest is opened. However, the current plan is a short-term solution as the West braces for their own shortage. These nations, who previously relied on Western support may be faced with alternatives as Europe and North America address their own domestic issues. In addition to a food crisis, the economic impact of COVID-19 within the previously mentioned nations remains. States such as Sri Lanka and Libya are facing national level riots as the government mishandles the situation. The short-term bail out from the World Bank will give at-risk nations a few days of comfort, but China is attempting to extend their services. China is estimated to house nearly 15 months' worth of food reserves; compared to the US’s 3-5 and Europe’s 1-3.
Building off of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) China will likely invest into these high-risk regions to establish Chinese dominance. For years, China has arranged deals with African and Asian nations to prop up their economy with high interest rates. The BRI is designed to establish a Chinese foothold in these regions while attempting to keep the government in line with Beijing goals. Sri Lanka, which is highly dependent on Russian grain and oil, is in a quasi-revolution as the economic situation stumbles. China, being Sri Lanka's largest investor, could provide food and security to the troubled populous in exchange for access to land. Similar to the situation in Djibouti where the Chinese established their first overseas military base and is now the launching point for BRI operations into the continent. What is unknown is if China has begun releasing their own food reserves to get ahead of winter. Russia's war in Ukraine and China's current position has the potential to counterbalance US/EU credibility through the decade. China could use this opportunity to accelerate the BRI into South and Central America, doubling down on Africa and Asia. Overall, the US and Europe would be forced to contain the Russians and Chinese on multiple fronts as the situation evolves. Moscow and Beijing understand the situation they are in, and will attempt to strong arm NATO's backyard into submission. 3
Baltic Pressure
Kaliningrad, a Russian province sandwiched between two NATO members (Poland and Lithuania) appears to be a potential flashpoint for Russia-NATO hostilities. Poland and Lithuanian authorities established a port and railway blockade around the Russian region, effectively cutting it off from the Russian mainland. Kaliningrad is located only 60 miles from the Russian border and is a holdover from their occupation of Eastern Germany following the Second World War. The Kremlin called the blockade "completely illegal" and threatened "serious" repercussions if it was not lifted. Lithuanian authorities stated that while the blockade is in place, individual Russians are free to enter and leave the region freely. To follow their statement, Russia conducted several cyber-attacks against the Baltic States power grid, and threatened to continue doing so until the sanction is lifted.
"The attack will continue until Lithuania lifts the blockade. We have demolished 1,652 Web resources. and that's just so far."
- Kremlin spokesman
Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Baltics have been subject to multiple cyber-attacks and mild civil unrest. Their ethic Russian population totals roughly 20% leading some to believe pro-Russian protests coupled with these cyber-attacks would recreate a Russian integration movement. However, being a member of NATO allows for the governments to seek military aid from their allies. Additionally, under article five, where an attack on one is an attack on all gives the region an extra layer of security. Since the Russo-Ukrainian war began, NATO members have deployed thousands of troops to Poland and surrounding NATO members to deter Russian aggression.
Regardless, Russia continues to launch attacks at the power grid. Knowing this, Lithuanian authorities stated that if the entire gid did go down, they would be integrated into the European Union's grid within 24 hours. As tensions rise, Andrey Gurulyov, Russian State Duma deputy stated that "we need to break through for a corridor from St. Petersburg along the Baltic Sea coast. Only then will we have a normal supply route for the city of Kaliningrad." Additionally, this statement was coupled with a joint announcement from Russian President Putin and Belarusian President Lukashenko that the blockade is "akin to a declaration of war". Following Russian comments, Latvian authorities announced that there will be conscription for all men ages 18-27 for the next five years.
“[Our men] will have to choose one of the four types of military service: State Defense Service, National Guard, Section Commander University Course or alternative services at the Ministry of Interior, Health or Welfare. Latvian population must realize that in order to survive we simply must increase the share of the population that has received military training and is ready to engage in combat. This should reduce the risk of Russia attacking Latvia at will."
- Artis Pabriks, Defense Minister
As the war continues, tensions will continue to rise. Russia previously stated that direct support to Ukraine will be considered a declaration of war, however both lethal and non-lethal aid continues. Russian forces are bogged down within the Donbas region of Ukraine while Belarus tip toes the idea of launching their own offensive. Overall, it is assessed that NATO will continue rotating their rapid response force through the Baltic region for months to come. It is unlikely that Russia will actively attack the alliance as it would mean almost a complete defeat on their end. Their response will continue to be threats and cyber-attacks as they are the most efficient at destabilizing the civilian population. 4
East Asia and Oceania
Invasion of Taiwan: Indicators and Warnings for the Casual Observer
Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China (ROC), is an island lying to the West of mainland China (officially the Peoples Republic of China or PRC) which has been governed independently since 1949. China views the island as a rogue nation that must be “unified” with the PRC. However, ROC views itself as an independent nation, one that has a democratically elected government, strong ties with the West and is largely opposed to coming under PRC rule.
Tensions between the two have been escalating since 2016 when President Tsai Ing-wen refused to carry on the work implemented by her predecessor that would have allowed for increased cross-strait ties. PRC has since then taken increasingly aggressive actions, which often include fighter jets carrying out incursions into Taiwanese airspace and naval patrols in the vicinity of the Taiwan coastline. It’s no surprise that many pundits assess that a China-Taiwan conflict will take place within our lifetime. To the casual observer though, what conditions would need to be met for this to reach flashpoint? What are the indicators that you should be watching for, that might be the precursors to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan?
The below graphic has been produced as a simplified indicator and warnings diagram, so you, the reader who might not have a background in intelligence, know what signs you might observe in the event of a coming invasion. Please note that these indicators are purposefully broad and are considered first-line analysis. They do not contain nuance, nor should they be considered definitive. Use them as a guide to orient yourself onto the China – Taiwan problem set and it is highly recommended that the reader conducts further research in order to expand on the indicators provided.5
The Assassination of Abe: A Lesson in Capability vs Intent
A fundamental risk assessment model that is in use throughout the intelligence community is the Capability vs Intent model. Through the analysis of these two categories, analysts are able to confidently judge the likelihood of an attack occurring against a target from a perceived or known threat. Capability refers to the known or assessed resources and knowledge that a threat possesses. For example, in a conventional sense, it is known that China has a large, relatively modern armed force (a high resource), however, might lack the knowledge and experience to effectively utilize them in a conventional conflict when compared to the US (a moderate knowledge). At a very rudimentary level, this would lead to the conclusion that China has a DEVELOPED capability. Whereas intent refers to the desire and confidence of a threat attacking. Again, with China, it’s assessed the PLA likely currently has little desire to initiate an offensive against Taiwan but also likely has high confidence if it were to do so. This would lead to the judgement that the PLA has EXPRESSED intent. Overall, this would make China a SIGNIFICANT threat. This Capability vs Intent concept can be used at the most strategic levels, but also at the micro-tactical levels to determine a single threat actor, with that said the assassination of Shinzo Abe by Tetsuya Yamagami is a timely case study in applying Capability vs Intent.
Fig 1. Capability vs Intent Threat Assessment Model
Capability
Japan has strict firearms laws, however, that did not stop Yamagami from acquiring the knowledge and resources required to carry out his attack. The gun used in the attack was (obviously) home made from crude material, commonly referred to as a “Ghost Gun”. As noted in the image, all parts of the gun are easily acquired materials with most materials likely readily available at hardware and hobby stores. In terms of the ammunition, it was highly likely either black powder or flash powder from fireworks. The projectile was likely a lead shot (fishing weights or ball bearings). Although crude, the gun was still highly effective at short range. In the context of this attack, we would judge this as having LOW-MODERATE resources.
In terms of knowledge, this is quite simple. Yamagami almost certainly had access to readily available online resources that would have given him instruction on how to assemble the gun. Secondly, it’s also become known that Yamagami had highly likely trained with his creations, with evidence indicating that he had conducted target training with them. Which led to his successful attack. This scores him a HIGH knowledge. Overall, Yamagami had a DEVELOPED capability.
Fig 2. A simple breakdown of Yamagami’s weapon used to kill Shinzo Abe
Intent
We now know that Yamagami was explicitly targeting Abe. Reports have indicated that Yamagami held a grudge against an organization he believed Abe to be connected to. Yamagami has also denied having a political motive to assassinate Abe. Furthermore, reports also suggest that Yamagami had followed Abe to various events in the days prior in an attempt to find a venue where an attack would be possible. This indicates that Yamagami had a DETERMINED intent, in that he had the motive to target, plan and eventually Kill Shinzo Abe.
Overall
Using the aforementioned model, we can now judge that Yamagami had a DEVELOPED capability and a DETERMINED intent. When analyzed in the threat model we can now confidently determine that Yamagami was a HIGH threat in the context of a lone-wolf-style shooting. If he was known to authorities, it’s probable that he would have been stopped. The Capability vs Intent threat model is versatile and can be used against almost any threat whether it is known or perceived. How might you put it to use?6
Abu Sayyaf Remains a Threat in the Southern Philippines.
Over the past month, Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) have been continually involved in small-scale skirmishes against Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) fighters operating in the Southern Philippines. Most recently, AFP soldiers from Joint Task Force SULU had killed two ASG fighters in separate clashes. The first clash took place in Lumbaan, a village in the town of Parang, Sulu and killed Gan SALAHUDIN. The soldiers then clashed with ASG gunmen in Buanza Village in Indanan Town, with no immediate reports of casualties. Lastly, ASG fighter, Adil AKARAB, was killed in a battle with soldiers in Lamitan City, Basilan Province.
Prior to the latest clashes, several appointed ASG sub-leaders known for cross-border Kidnap For Ransom (KSR) activities had been designated as terrorists by the Anti-Terror Council (ATC). An AFP General stated that by designating these individuals as terrorists, military pressure would be able to be continually applied against remaining members of ASG and other groups such as Dawlah Islamiyah. 7
Fig 3. Wanted Terrorists in the Southern Philippines.
Assessment. Expect continued sporadic clashes to occur in the Southern Philippines over the next 14 days. Areas of heightened concern likely include isolated villages in the South West of Jolo Island as well as villages located in the North East of Basilan Island. Separate reporting has indicated a possible increase in the manufacture and proliferation of crude VOIED, utilizing Ammonium Nitrate Fuel Oil (ANFO) as the main explosive.
Papua New Guinea General Elections: Violence in Enga Province
On July 4th, the polls opened across Papua New Guinea (PNG) and voters across the country have been streaming into polling stations to cast their vote that will determine who governs the Pacific nation. However, Papua New Guinea is considered a relatively unstable country, with social unrest common leading up to, during and after major political events. Although the votes will be cast at the start of July, the results will not be known until sometime in August. Until then, it is important to note that unrest will likely increase leading up to the result. Already, violence has erupted in Enga Province, with political supporters hijacking ballot boxes and clashing with security forces. Furthermore, vandals had disrupted air movement in and out of the province by spreading oil and glass across the runway of Wapenamanda Airport. There have also been reports of bridges that provide access to remote polling stations have been dismantled in an attempt to prevent ballot boxes from being transported to counting locations.
Fig 4. Papua New Guinea police vehicles after a recent hijacking and ballots were stolen.
As at 11 July 21, reports indicate that the PNGDF Long Range unit, considered special operations forces, has now moved into Enga Province in order to assist with quelling violence. This comes as reports now indicate that there are roadblocks and snipers overwatching entrances into remote locales throughout the province which are preventing ballot boxes from reaching counting stations. This is a key indicator that Enga Province is steadily deteriorating into a worsening situation.
Fig 5. Papua New Guinea Special Forces arrive in Enga Province.
Assessment. The Highland region of Papua New Guinea will likely see a gradual increase in violence and nefarious activity over the coming weeks. Polling stations, ballot boxes and other political installations will be targeted by supporters of rival political parties in order to delegitimatize the election. This will likely see certain regions and provinces in Papua New Guinea have their election counts deemed inconclusive which will probably exacerbate instability further. Papua New Guinea security forces are unlikely capable of reducing violence in remote regions, and some elements are almost certainly involved in anti-political activities. This is expected to continue over the next 7 to 14 days.8
Asia and the Middle East
Iraq: Turkey and Iran’s Dams are the Primary Contributor to Iraq’s Water Crisis
Currently, Iraq is undergoing a countrywide water shortage mainly stemming from Turkey and Iran constructing dams that will almost certainly attribute civil unrest. On December 2nd, 2021, Iraq’s Ministry of Water Resources warned last December that the continuing loss of water from the Tigris and the Euphrates rivers, which is the primary source of Iraq’s fresh water, could create Iraq into “a land without rivers by 2040.”
The majority of Iraq’s water source comes from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which provide 98% of their surface water; however, the water into Iraq from the rivers has decreased by 30% since the 1980’s. The Iraqi government predicting a further decline of up to 50% before 2030.
This water shortage also includes the Shaat al Arab river, located in southern Iraq where the Tigris and Euphrates rivers meet with the tributaries from the Karkheh and Karun rivers from Iran. Iranian damming projects have contributed to the water crisis in eastern and southern Iraq.
“The rate of decline in water imports to Iraq has begun gradually and will decrease to 30% by 2035,” the Ministry of Water Resources said. The Ministry of Water Resources expounded saying that a decrease in supply to 30% of normal levels (around 40 billion cubic meters during the summer) will result in Iraq receiving 11 billion cubic meters annually. Iraq’s water consumption needs amount to 53 billion cubic meters annually, which means the deficit will increase to 80%.
This decrease in waterflow from the Euphrates and Tigris rivers are a result of Turkey and Iran damming projects. The primary contributor to this decrease is Turkey, who has been constructing a series of dams along both the Tigris and Euphrates River as a result of the Southeastern Anatolia Project / Guneydogu Anadolu Projesi (GAP) in Turkish. According to New Security Beat.org, the GAP is one of the largest river basin development projects in the world and the largest single development project carried out by Turkey. It includes 13 irrigation and hydropower schemes, involving the construction of 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric power plants on both the Tigris and the Euphrates. Upon completion it is expected to provide up to 25% of the country’s electricity.
Iran, on the other hand, is a smaller contributor of Iraq’s water crisis in comparison to Turkey; however, according to AGSIW, tributaries originating in Iran contribute 40% of the Shaat al-Arab’s water in Iraq, and dam building has had a devastating impact on the water flowing to Iraq’s eastern governorates. With 600 dams built in Iran and more planned, the waters of rivers such as the Karun and Karkheh have been diverted to stay within Iranian territory and no longer flow into Iraq. AGSIW goes on to state that the diversions have not only decreased the water flow to Iraq but have also increased salinity. In Basra alone, 118,000 people were hospitalized because of health issues related to water quality in the summer of 2018.
While Iraq has reduced water from Iran, Iranian politicians are claiming to also be victims of climate change and point the blame towards Turkey, claiming that they created a water shortage in the Arvand river basin. Farshid Shokrkhodai, head of the Iranian Commission for Sustainable Development, Environment and Water of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce, said in a recent interview that "Iran's water tension with other countries, including Iraq, is increasing. Although we deny the problems of climate change or try not to get involved in climate change, we are victims of it in the region." Shokrkhodai also stated that "Arvand is the only river that flows from Iran to Iraq; the water of the dams in the Karun River is not even given to the people of Khuzestan. That is the issue: the Arvand drought. The problem of the Iraqis is the Tigris and the Euphrates [rivers], which originate from Turkey, and Turkey has built dams [on both rivers]. This action, and the reduction of Iraq's water supply from the Tigris and the Euphrates, has caused the Arvand water shortage to show itself."
While Iran and Turkey are the main external factors to Iraq’s water crisis, several other factors compound together to create a larger problem - Iraq’s government mismanagement and climate change are also affecting Iraqis’ access to water. Climate change has resulted in low rainfall and heat waves, while government mismanagement resulted in increased salinization. According to UNICEF, the 2020-2021 rainfall season in Iraq was the second driest in the last 40 years, caused a reduction of water flow in Tigris and Euphrates by 29% and 73% respectively. According to International Atomic Energy Agency, soil salinization in Iraq is caused primarily by poor irrigation practices such as the use of saline water and soil compaction, leading to low drainage. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations has estimated that Iraq loses about 25,000 hectares per year of agricultural cropping land as a result of salinity.
When is Iraq going to suffer the water shortage the most?
90% of Iraq’s annual rainfall occurs between the months of November and April, also known as the “wet season”, while late May, June, July, August and early September make up the dry season. The summer months are going to be affected most by the ongoing water shortage, especially in July.
Which areas will be affected the most?
The central and southern provinces of Iraq are exposed to a series of serious drought-related problems. In December, the Minister of Water Resources Mahdi Rashid Al Hamdani predicted water shortages directly affecting the province of Wasit, located southeast of Baghdad.
“The impacts in Wasit have affected other [provinces], such as the southern cities of Maysan, Dhi Qar and Basra,” Mr Al Hamdani said. “The “crisis of water scarcity is not to be dealt with by the ministry alone, but rather the whole country.” Al Hamdani also stated that Dhi Qar, Maysan, and Basra will be affected by the flow of water from the Tigris River.
“Transgression has begun to appear again, and the largest of it is in Wasit, because it represents a crossroads for the flow of the Tigris River. Any transgression that occurs has a tangible impact and is reflected on Dhi Qar, Maysan and Basra,” he said.
Low rainfall, climate change, and government mismanagement, coupled with Turkey and Iran’s damming of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, and the various tributaries feeding into the Shaat al Arab River, will increase the desertification of Iraq and will reduce access to fresh water. To avoid or curb civil unrest or economic disaster, Iraq will need to increase cooperation with Iran and Turkey to increase the water flow. Additionally, if Iran and Turkey ignore Iraq’s requests to cooperate, the region will continue to become more unstable as civilians leaving Iraq could seek refuge in neighboring countries, or Iraqi politicians become hostile in an effort to strong arm their country access to fresh water or possibly sabotage dams in Turkey or Iran. 9
Iran: Over the past several weeks, Iran has continued to enrich Uranium despite negotiations.
It is possible that Iran’s continued enrichment would result in the complete abandonment of any nuclear deal. If the deal was abandoned, Iran would have the ability to pursue nuclear weapons without oversight, which could spark a reaction from Israel.
On May 31st, NBC News reported that Iran has accumulated enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb, according to new findings from the United Nations atomic agency. Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association think tank stated that, "Iran has now accumulated enough enriched uranium to be able to quickly produce more than a significant quantity of HEU (highly enriched uranium) for one bomb …The time it would take them to do that can now be measured in days, not months or weeks."
On June 9th, Iran turned off cameras used by IAEA, the nuclear watchdog group International Atomic Energy Agency. These cameras were used to monitor activity on nuclear sites in Iran and turning them off denied negotiators of the nuclear deal (formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action / JCPOA) data, which made it "technically impossible to have an agreement," IAEA chief Raphael Grossi told in an interview CNN. "Or you could have (a deal) on the basis of no information, which I suppose is not going to happen," said Grossi. "This is why we are saying it's a very serious thing. It has consequences."
On June 30th, during the Special session of the UN security council, the UK envoy Barbara Woodward stated that, “Iran’s nuclear program has never been more advanced than it is today and Iran’s nuclear escalation is a threat to international peace and security.” She continued, stating that, “At the current enrichment rate, by the end of this year, Iran is likely to have enough enriched material to rapidly produce highly enriched uranium at 90% enrichment for several nuclear devices,” she said. “Iran also continues to develop ballistic missiles in a way that is inconsistent with UN resolutions.”
Regarding the US, on July 13th, US President Joe Biden says he remains committed to resurrecting the Iran nuclear deal, saying “the only thing worse than the Iran that exists now is an Iran with nuclear weapons.” According to AP News, Biden reiterated that the U.S. would not allow Iran to gain a nuclear weapon and said it would use military force as a “last resort.”
Over the next few weeks, Iran will likely continue to enrich uranium regardless of negotiations – this has the capacity to cause western nations, including the UK, France, and the US, to scrap the deal entirely. If negotiations are abandoned completely, Israel will most likely reassert their position on a nuclear-capable Iran – as a threat to their very existence. Israel has showed its willingness to conduct preemptive strikes against countries that are deemed a threat to their country and aspire on creating nuclear weapons. In 1981, Israel successfully conducted preemptive strikes against Iraq’s unfinished nuclear reactor outside of Baghdad. In 2007, Israel conducted “Operation Outside the Box” – the airstrike against suspected nuclear reactor located in al-Kibar in Deir al-Zour Province, 450km (280 miles) northeast of Damascus. These examples show Israel’s willingness to conduct pre-emptive attacks in the name of their national security.
On June 2nd, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett warned the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency that Israel was prepared to use it's "right to self-defense" to stop Iran's nuclear program. Bennett stated that, “[Israel] reserves the right to self-defense and to action against Iran in order to block its nuclear program should the international community not succeed in the relevant time frame." Later, on June 12th, Bennett said in an interview that “Iran is enriching uranium at an unprecedented rate and moving dangerously close to getting their hands on nuclear weapons” and that “without pressure from the West, the Islamic regime in Iran could get their hands on a nuclear bomb very soon.” Bennett later added that “Iran’s nuclear program won’t stop until it’s stopped.” This clearly underlines Bennett’s perception of Iran – that they’re going to build nuclear weapons, and it’s Israel’s duty to defend itself. This boils the situation down even further, that if negotiations fail and Iran is left to create nuclear weapons, it isn’t a matter of “if” a conflict would breakout across the middle east between Israel, the U.S., partners, and allies versus Iran and their proxies – but rather “when”.10
Africa
Nigeria’s Oil Pirates
Rampant unemployment, poverty, and food insecurity are forcing some Nigerians to turn to crime. The Niger Delta is plagued by gangs stealing and exporting crude oil, with Gbenga Komolafe, CEO of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealing a loss of an estimated $4 billion a year to theft. The theft combined with the rise of instability in the region by armed militias and religious extremists massively endangers Nigeria’s position as a leading oil producer in Africa and threatens Europe’s access to non-Russian Oil.
Following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union announced intentions to ban crude oil imports from Russia and increase those from other nations. Nigeria is well positioned to ramp-up production but lacks the infrastructure to protect oil pipelines and maximize output. The Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber recently stated “We have to continue paying attention on vandalism, sabotage and theft in oilfields. The close collaboration between the government and Industry could not be more important now.” Increased terrorist involvement in oil theft may also increase as demand for oil grows.
Nigeria’s loss of billions of dollars in oil annually massively damages the nation’s oil and gas industry and the country's economy by extension. This loss of oil means Nigeria can’t meet the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) daily export quota - a failure to accurately project production reverberates in economies worldwide. On top of this, with the European Union’s aim to reduce reliance on Russian energy, Nigeria is missing out on billions in revenue, while making it more difficult and more expensive for European nations to distance themselves from Russian energy suppliers.11
Mass Humanitarian Crisis Induced by Civil Conflict in Ethiopia
The Tigray region of Northern Ethiopia is locked in brutal infighting between an experienced rebel-guerilla conglomerate known as the Tigray Defense forces (TDF), against the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) who are supported by northern neighbor Eritrea. The war is brutal with extrajudicial killing, rape, torture being perpetrated by all parties involved. The Ethiopian and Eritrean Governments have been accused of genocide after calling to “wipe out” all Tigrayans for 100 years.
Since the war began in 2020, tens of thousands of civilians have been killed, an estimated 2,100,000 have been displaced due to the conflict and an estimated 9,400,000 are in need of humanitarian aid. The Federal government was claimed to be “deliberately holding back food in an effort to starve…” Tigray forces until the government declared a “humanitarian truce” in March of 2022 – so far things have remained stable with small clashes occurring in the Afar region neighboring Tigray to the East.
Persisting drought followed by four failed rainy seasons and resulting crop failure alongside complications from the war threatens famine in the nation for the first time since the 1980’s. Estimates of humanitarian need, whether affected by war or by circumstance, show 25.9 million people in need of assistance. The Humanitarian Response Plan is currently severely underfunded leaving the nation teetering on the edge of a full-blown humanitarian crisis.12
China’s Quest for Cobalt
Cobalt is a mineral integral to creating rechargeable lithium-ion batteries – the same type commonly used in smartphones, laptops, and by electric vehicle manufacturers. The Democratic Republic of Congo supplies an estimated 70% of global Cobalt, and all of it is siphoned directly through China. An estimated 100,000 “artisanal miners” use hand tools to dig unsupported chambers hundreds of feet deep, risking their lives in an effort to secure the in-demand mineral and feed their families.
Refined Cobalt from the Congo is almost exclusively shipped to China, primarily through Congo Dongfang Mining International, a subsidiary of China-based Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Company Ltd. – a publicly traded company with ~24% of the company owned by entities of the state and an additional 10% by the government’s China-Africa Development Fund. Further down the supply chain the Cobalt is sold to companies like Apple, Samsung, LG, Sony, Volkswagen, Lenovo, and more.
Apart from the obvious fact that much of the world’s Cobalt is produced on the backs of poor miners often working in egregiously unsafe working conditions. The recognition that a single country vertically controls a supply chain integral to powering the world is a concerning one. With existing supply chain woes still reverberating from the COVID-19 Pandemic alongside a global push for cleaner energy, it is possible Cobalt will grow increasingly more important as time goes on. 13
Sudan’s Ongoing Fight for Democracy
Following the 2018 revolution then President Omar al-Bashir was deposed after a military-backed coup d’etat. A 39-month political transition period began with the goal of transitioning the country to a democratic system. Sudanese citizens began protesting in 2019 following extrajudicial killing of civilians by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), show trials resulting in the arrest of union leaders, toxic working conditions in mines, and unjust dismissal of government officials. Protestors want the military junta to step down and reinstate the civilian-led government.
The protests have been ongoing since 2019, and under consistent pressure Coup leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan vowed to “make room” for civilians to form a new transitional government. Many civilian groups believe this statement to be disingenuous given that protestors are frequently met with tear gas, live ammunition, water cannons. Burhan also announced the development of a new “Supreme Council of the Armed Forces” - a proposed wing of the civilian government without a clear check of power.
Burhan’s plan to introduce the “Supreme Council of the Armed Forces” was met with skepticism from protestors and the opposition group alike. Some believe the intention is to install a puppet prime minister who is still beholden to Burhan’s direction while others claimed the statement existed only to satiate the international community. While only time will tell whether Burhan’s intentions are pure - It is likely the near weekly protests will continue as international partners continue applying pressure on the junta to step back and allow democracy to prevail.14
Rebels Resurge in The Congo
The M23 rebel group recently re-emerged after their initial insurgency from 2012 - 2013 in the Democratic Republic of Congo when they formed an armed uprising against the DRC’s central administration. With an estimated 170,000+ people displaced by the conflict in the last four months alone, and a total of 5.5 million displaced so far and nearly a third of the country facing food insecurity, the conflict has existential repercussions for civilians. The organization was named for its formation on “March 23” and is also known as the “Congolese Revolutionary Army.” A United Nations report from 2012 showed that the group was founded and directed by Rwanda with some support from Ugandan officials. The UN published a second report in 2015 indicating that Rwanda ceased support for the group after M23’s military defeat in 2013.
Amidst the recent resurgence of fighting, M23 rebels captured Bunagana in early June – a town bordering both Uganda and Rwanda. The same town served as a bulwark for M23 during the initial rebellion in 2012. Given the UN’s findings during the first rebellion, the DRC’s government was quick to hold Rwandan defense forces accountable, saying M23’s occupation of Bunagana was “...no less than invasion of the Democratic Republic of Congo.” Rwanda made similar claims saying the DRC’s government was directly aiding the Rwandan rebel group the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR).
The United Nations is concerned that conflict between M23 rebels, Nigeria, and neighboring Rwanda will continue escalating. With undercurrents of the 1994 genocide between Hutu and Tutsi ethnic groups that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives in the region - President of Rwanda, Paul Kagame’s, Tutsi heritage alongside M23’s primarily Tutsi makeup cannot be ignored. The same can be said about Congo’s alleged aid to the ethnic Hutu FDLR. Fighting continues over Bunagana, with M23 rebels announcing they have no intention of withdrawing, the international community has made it clear Rwanda and Congo need to maintain an open dialogue to reduce the impacts of the conflict on civilians in the region.15
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