Bulletin From The Borderlands

15 September 2022

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Meridian News

The Americas continue to feel the bite of inflation and political unrest. In Brazil, right wing President Bolsonaro may lose his hold on power. Argentina’s Vice President escapes an assassination attempt thanks only to the failure of her assassin’s weapon. Cartel movement into alternative criminal enterprises has turned human trafficking into a nightmarish boom industry.

Europe : Covered in this issue by Analyze Educate, S2 Forward, and Good Political

Ukraine turns the Russian Army back across the entire line of contact, reclaiming large areas of territory around Kharkiv, Izyum, and Kherson. Armenia and Azerbaijan’s brief ceasefire collapses under Azeri surprise assaults on the Nagorno/Karabakh demilitarized zone.

East Asia and Oceania : Covered in this issue by Good Political

The death of Queen Elizabeth brings uncertainty to the Commonwealth nations of the Pacific. Issues continue in the Solomon Islands, where the CCP backed government has voted to delay elections again this year. The Chinese government continues to expand its influence across the South Pacific and out into Africa and the Americas.

Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by Analyze Educate and S2 Forward

Mass flooding rocks Pakistan and other parts of Southwest Asia. As reported over the last two issue, Iraq remains primed for civil conflict, caused by the divide between Pro Iranian and Iraqi Nationalist Shia movements. In Afghanistan, the new Taliban government struggles to rule the country they waited twenty years to govern as insurgent groups from the National Resistance Front to ISIS tear away at their forces.

Africa : Covered in this issue by Croatoan Report

Libya remains chronically unstable, unable to form an effective single government. In Ethiopia, the Tigray movement has agreed to a ceasefire with the Ethiopian government, mediated by several regional powers. US officials make their case to Africa that China acts in its own self interest on the continent, the latest in recent pushback against Chinese debt trap investment in the region.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: Battlefield defeat for the Russian Army

Russian forces in Ukraine lost effectively all of the gains they’d made over the last two months in a one week period. Russian lines around Kharkiv and Izyum have largely collapsed. In the south around Kherson, Ukrainian forces seem primed to push on against the city and further towards Mariupol. This sudden turn around has had major follow on effects in Russia, leading to several calls from Duma officials for Vladimir Putin to resign as President of the Russian Federation, as well as a lock down of the roads and bridges around Moscow by the Rosvgardia (Russian National Guard), an event that has not happened since the end of the Soviet Union and the rise of Boris Yeltsin. Further complicating matters, Ukraine’s offensive operations happened at the same time as Putin’s prescheduled trip to Russia’s far east. Rather than return to Moscow to handle the crisis, Putin has gone to a palatial dacha in Sochi. It is reported that he is refusing to take meetings with his military officials. If this is true, the end of the Putin government may be close.

The Long Term Concern: Russia Declares War on Ukraine, and China extends into Africa

While Ukrainian battlefield successes have been celebrated internationally, they do pose a significant risk. Russia has still not abandoned its plans to hold ‘referendums’ on the annexation of Ukrainian territory. Should it choose to do so, it could provide the Russian government a pretext for openly declaring war on Ukraine (which they have so far avoided doing). If the Russian Federation does declare war, that would free up thousands of more men and military supplies for a renewed campaign against Ukraine.

Also of concern, and a persistent through line over the last couple Bulletins, is the expansion of CCP influence across the African subcontinent. Africa is the fastest growing region on the planet, with a predominantly young population and high rates of urbanization. It is also one of the world’s most unstable regions, with many of the continent’s governments barely able to maintain rule of law or civil society. Chinese interest in resource extraction and outright influence over the nations of Africa will feed that instability, and potentially create the conditions for outright revolt.

See Also:

1. Gas prices spike to almost intolerable levels across Europe.

2. Queen Elizabeth II dies, leaving her throne to her son King Charles.

3. Japan announces plans to create several Missile Defense ships in response to Chinese aggression in the Pacific.

4. Miguel Felix Gallardo, the former boss of the Guadalajara Cartel, is released on house arrest.

5. Serbian nationalist movements clash violently with Kosovoan security forces, in a worrying resurgence of violence in the Balkans.

The Americas

Bolsonaro Election Uncertainty

Brazil’s next presidential election is approaching with polls opening on October 2nd, and tensions are rising across the country as right-wing candidate and incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and leftist candidate former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva face-off for Brazil’s presidency. 

Brazil has over 156 million registered voters, making it one of the largest democracies in the world as well as the home to its fair share of political drama. Bolsonaro is a polarizing figure, often touted as Brazil’s Donald Trump. His politics are staunchly conservative and often considered nationalist and populist in nature. Da Silva, known to most as “Lula” is widely regarded as one of Brazil’s most well-liked presidents ever. So much so that his name developed into its own political ideology known as “Lulism” described as an “appeasement of social conflicts, of which the bourgeoisie has always [been] too afraid, especially in a country of great inequality as is the case of Brazil" and additionally promises to use a “conservative variant of modernization” which essentially allows for the state to assist the poorest of the nation without interrupting the financial interests of the elite. Lula’s legacy was somewhat tarnished after he was arrested for money laundering in 2018 until a Supreme Court Justice annulled the cases in 2021 after conclusion the first Justice was biased in initial ruling.

Lula and Bolsonaro’s politics are staunchly polarized as are their supporters. The upcoming election will dictate Brazil’s future but extends further to that of the Amazon rainforest. Bolsonaro has received significant criticism for his relaxed attitude on preservation of the Amazon Rainforest. His critics say his failure to protect the ecosystem could have drastic effects on the planet as the effects of climate change grow more severe. The Amazon currently absorbs more carbon-dioxide than any other ecosystem on Earth and experts are concerned that reducing its size would have a significant negative effect on our ability to limit climate change. Lula is currently leading in opinion polls, but Bolsonaro has a strong base of supporters. As Brazil’s election season peaks, the nation will undergo significant change politically, economically, and environmentally giving significant insight into the future for its citizens’ as  well as its  role in the international community¹.

Human Trafficking Proves a Booming Industry for Mexico’s Cartels

Eight people have been indicted for their roles in smuggling hundreds of immigrants across the United States’ Southern Borders. The leader of the trafficking ring, identified by prosecutors as a Texas resident known as “Boss Lady” reportedly earned more than $1.3 million trafficking immigrants in the past four years.

The Department of Homeland Security’s Deputy Secretary said that smugglers

“...have become increasingly intertwined with the cartels and there is increasing evidence of the abuse, exploitation and violence they perpetrate on migrants.”

while it’s not entirely clear whether these smugglers were  intertwined  with cartels, it is certainly a possibility.

Human trafficking on the United States’ southern border is nothing new but increased presence of U.S. Border Patrol and additional security measures have even more immigrants turning to smugglers in an attempt to enter the U.S. In 2021, a senior Homeland Security official even told congress that human trafficking on the Southern border nets cartels and smugglers between $2 and $6 billion each year. According to the Washington Times, Mexicans typically pay around $8,000 with migrants from other Central and South American countries typically pay about $10,000. According to Customs and border protections public data, nearly 200,000 encounters were had during the month of August, 2022. In August of 2020, just over 40,000 encounters were reported, and assuming any percentage of these smugglers are paying  clients results in significant profits for smugglers.

This increase in encounters on the southern border is likely due to greater involvement from Cartels and other opportunistic criminals. The barrier to entry is extremely low - especially as an American already living in the area and the risk is minimal compared to drug trafficking for smugglers. Criminals can fail - often repeatedly -  while still getting paid and without ever having anything seized beyond human cargo that would eventually be offloaded regardless. This increases profitability and when combined with an increasingly  stretched border patrol and customs workforce creates the perfect storm for a budding trafficking industry². 

Argentina’s 95% Inflation Nightmare

Argentinian economists just released their estimate for annual inflation - and it came in at a whopping 95%. The numbers were published by Argentina’s central bank and are yet another symptom of an unprecedented pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rampant consumer spending, and supply chain woes worldwide. In Argentina’s case the primary driver is surging consumer prices alongside insecurity caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine. 

Protestors in Buenos Aires, the nation’s capital, recently held a mock funeral procession in the streets, dawning mourner’s attire and carrying a fake coffin to signify the “death of wages.” Argentina is South America’s third largest economy, but is struggling to maintain the purchasing power of its citizens’ earnings. For example, Argentina’s National Institution of Statistics and Census (INDEC) the country’s official minimum wage is 45,540 Argentinian pesos (about $320 USD) while the cost to feed a family of four is estimated by INDEC at 111,297 (about $782 USD) Argentinian pesos - more than double minimum wage.

Citizens are frustrated with the inability to earn a salary that maintains its worth over time, with workers who are able often looking internationally for remote work at foreign firms. Other Argentinians deal exclusively in cash to avoid paying taxes on earnings and stretching funds just a little further. Argentina suffered from hyperinflation in the late 1980’s, with inflation peaking at 5,000%. Violent protests erupted last time the situation unfolded and it’s looking like the wheels are about to fall off Argentina's economy again, with their citizens left holding the bag. It will be very telling whether Argentina is able to reel in its spending or if the nation will continue down a path to a wrecked economy and a repeat of the crisis in the 80’s³. 

The Continuing Collapse of the Haitian Government

Haiti has become an epicenter for gang violence as the small island nation struggles to import fuel, quell inflation, and establish a working democracy following its former presidents assassination. On Monday, Prime Minister Ariel Henry pleaded to the international community for assistance in curbing the violence engulfing the nation. 

Henry has had his work cut out for him since he took office last September following the assassination of former President Jovenel Moïse. While he’s directed much of his  energy into promises that elections will be held in the near future, he’s yet to appoint an electoral council or further the investigation of Moïse’s murder in any significant way. With gang related violence surging in the form of kidnappings and murder, the weakened government is continuing to lose it’s grip to organized crime as the nations political infrastructure continues to erode. According to the international risk management firm Crisis24, “...confrontations between rival gangs have escalated due to territorial disputes in recent weeks and overwhelmed local security forces.” The most recent example of this violence occurred as two Haitian journalists were shot by two warring gangs and their bodies burned while reporting from a slum in Haiti's capital. Haiti’s Association of Independent Journalists said these murders are “further proof of the inability of the state to protect lives and property, which is nothing other than a violation of human rights.” 

Between the assassination of President Moïse, Henry’s seeming unwillingness to organize a democratic process, increase in gang violence, and the inaccessibility of fuel, Haiti is in a very difficult position. If political stability isn’t reestablished, it is likely what is left of the nation’s government will lose its remaining influence to criminal organizations⁴. 

Assassination Attempt Gone Wrong

Shocking video of the botched assassination attempt of Argentinian Vice-President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner emerged last week. In footage taken by an unassuming patron, de Kirchner can be seen walking through a crowd greeting supporters when a pistol emerges from the crowd, aimed at her head from only a few inches away. The would–be assassin pulls the trigger, the hammer falls, and the gun misfires. But who is de Kirchner, and why would anyone want to kill her in such a violent and public fashion?

 Well, de Kirchner is a career politician, and a divisive one at that. She was Argentina’s first  lady from 2003 to 2007, President from 2007 to 2015, and has been the Vice President since 2019. Her political career has been rife with controversy, multiple money laundering cases, and seemingly overt corruption. Some notable examples being her 2018 indictment for accepting bribes in exchange for public works contracts and an accusation that de Kirchner colluded with the Iranian government to cover-up suspects’ involvement in bombing at a Buenos Aires Jewish center that killed 85 people - as part of a trade deal.

A 35 year old man and his 23 year old girlfriend have since  been charged for the attempted murder of de Kirchner. Investigators are yet to establish a motive for the assassination attempt but it seems likely the motive is related to the numerous charges de Kirchner has been able to dodge due to her status as a politician⁵.