Bulletin From The Borderlands

01 September 2023

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Kitbag Conversations : A team of retired Marine and Army Intelligence analysts and the founders of the Croatoan Report and Kitbag Conversations, foreign policy and security affairs podcasts. The Team Leader for Bulletin From The Borderlands.

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He attends San Jose State University and is pursuing a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the assistant lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

Sino Talk : Sino Talk is China watcher with extensive experience living and studying in China. In another life, he was a Marine intelligence analyst. 

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Calisto Report: The Calisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

ALCON S2: A veteran of the New Zealand military intelligence community, if it walks, talks, or crawls in Asia, ALCON S2 knows about it. Cole is the preeminent source of OSINT for the Oceania and South East Asia region.

Bulletin From The Borderlands supports the work of OSINT aggregators, analysts, and independent journalists. Subscriptions go towards supporting our team

Subscribed

Sponsors

The Bulletin is brought you to by PB Abbate.

As you likely know, Lethal Minds Journal shares common ancestry with Patrol Base Abbate, one of the most impactful veteran’s outreach organizations in America. One of the ways in which we connect is through a love of the written word, a belief in the power of good writing to help give a voice to people who need to be heard, and a desire to help service members and vets connect through self-expression. This summer, Sebastian Junger, award winning writer of War, Tribe, and Freedom (amongst others), will join the Patrol Base Abbate Book Club in Montana for their annual Return to Base Program. From June 22nd-26th, members of the Book Club will spend a few days discussing literature while they reconnect with nature and other veterans at Patrol Base Abbate’s PB in Thompson Falls, Montana. Details about eligibility are at https://www.pbabbate.org/rtb-application-0-0.

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate). 

The discovery of a terrorist-aligned smuggling network has once again placed security on the US southern border in focus. Staying with that area, a cross border incident involving the National Guard has put Operation Lone Star in the crosshairs. Lastly, Central America continues to cozy up to the People’s Republic of China after the regional parliament expelled Taiwan as an observer.

Europe : Covered in this issue by Meridian News and Defense Bulletin. 

The dust has settled after the NATO summit this past July in Vilnius, Lithuania. Many, including the Ukrainians, were convinced that membership would be offered to Ukraine at the summit. What had people convinced membership would be offered, what is NATO policy/rhetoric surrounding the subject, and what are the strategic implications should they join before or after the conflict ends? All this covered after updates on the ongoing Russo-Ukraine War, Black Sea Grain deal, and the death of Wagner PMC head Yevgeny Prigozhin. 

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by Sino Talk

Taiwan will receive a $80 million arms package from the United States via the Foreign Military Financing program, a program usually for independent countries. Taiwan also purchased several Infrared Search and Track systems for their F-16Vs to enable them to track and target Chinese stealth fighters. Terry Gou announced his candidacy to run for the President of Taiwan. Chinese military academies enroll nearly 17,000 high school graduates as the youth unemployment rate soars. Japan held a joint naval exercise with Australia, the United States, and the Philippines in the South China Sea amid China’s aggressive actions in the region. 

The Philippine Navy wants to strengthen cooperation with both its Japanese and United States counterparts through joint training and capability development that would be mutually beneficial. The U.S. military is reportedly in talks with the Philippines to build an alternative port on Batanes Island located in the Bashi Straits. Super Garuda Shield 2023 began on the Indonesian island of Java with more than 10,000 troops from Indonesia, the United States, Australia, Japan, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and France. The daughter of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said any royal pardon request would need to come from her father and is his decision. 

The Royal Australian Air Force and the United States Army completed the Highball Exercise in Western Australia to test the HIMARs’ long-range maritime precision strike capabilities. The Australian Defence Force selected the Rheinmetall subsidiary RWM Italia to make an unknown quantity of smart sea mines to revamp the force’s mining capability. The United States and Indian Navies recently completed a week-long anti-submarine exercise in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. 

Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by the S2 Fwd

Iran’s foreign minister visits Syria and makes commitments of increased involvement in the country. STRATCOM officials come under fire for a controversial guest being hosted at the Deterrence Symposium. 

Africa: Covered in this issue by the Expeditionary Intelligence Group

For this issue of the bulletin all eyes remain on west Africa as the coup in Niger continues to develop and evolve. Additionally, in Gabon a coup was initiated to reshuffle the entire Gabonese government. Furthermore, Cameroon began to show signs of a powershift and possible coup with the declaration of a reshuffle of its entire military force. 

Other flashpoints in Africa: 

North Africa: Egypt was officially invited to join BRICS, signaling possible significant economic power shifts in the MENA region.

East Africa: Leading up to September 1, 2023, Al Shabaab has mounted a large counteroffensive against Somali national forces, resulting in the loss of government-controlled territory and large casualties for state forces.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: PARLACEN Willing to Parlay with the PRC. 

The Central American Parliament, also known as PARLACEN, has voted to recognize the People's Republic of China (PRC) over Taiwan as a permanent observer. Guatemala has long sought to deepen the relationship between PARLACEN and the PRC, and may be on the brink of success. All this and more in “The Americas” section of The Bulletin by Brodie Kirkpatrick of Analyze & Educate.

Strategic Forecast:  John M. Larrier (Defense Bulletin)

In the past few weeks the theme of increased strategic partnerships in the geopolitical sphere remains the same. As Iran seeks to undermine U.S.-partner nation influence in the Middle East we can expect more IRGC funded and equipped militias to begin operating in and around Syria. Hezbollah has also been emboldened. Enabling them to deepen ties with other aligned groups. In the wake of Putin’s alleged political assassination of Wagner PMC head Yevgeny Prigozhin and the sacking of General Surovikin, it can be expected that Putin will continue to cancel out real and perceived vulnerabilities through more power consolidation measures. China seeks to undermine Taiwan's diplomatic moves abroad by pressuring nations, most recently the Central American Parliament, into expelling Taiwan from their frameworks. At the same time they continue aggressive actions in the South China Sea against The Philippines and other neighboring countries hoping to curtail the  growing U.S. military presence in the region. As initiative, alliances, and frameworks abound in the region, the U.S. will seek to expand its “burden sharing” by leveraging its allies and partners in the region. While simultaneously multiple coups and reshuffles of military command are ongoing in Africa. With much still to be determined.

See Also:

• Foreign investment continues to flee mainland China, as investors pull money from an economy that continues to slow.

• Chinese real estate takes another hit as Evergrande defaults on its debt.

• Hungary’s Orban calls for a settlement to the Russo Ukrainian War, and no entry for Ukraine into NATO. His comments are echoed by Vivek Ramaswamy, a margin candidate for the GOP nomination for President.

• Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian lines in South East Ukraine, and are pushing their way towards Melitopol. Russian forces have been unable to slow Ukrainian advances.

• Ukraine staged its largest air attack on Russian soil in the war to date, destroying several IL-76 transport aircraft, used to deploy Russian VDV paratroopers, as well as bombing Pskov Airbase and Moscow.

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick

Border Scare Prompts FBI Operation 

The FBI recently discovered a smuggling network with links to a terrorist organization that helped groups from the former-Soviet Union gain entry into the United States. This incident highlights security issues that the country faces along the southern border of Mexico and the groups that seek to take advantage of those deficiencies. 

Transnational Network

On Tuesday, the FBI confirmed to multiple news agencies that it had identified and stopped a transnational human trafficking network with links to the Islamic State. This network facilitated the smuggling of Uzbeks, Russians, Chechens, and Georgians living in Turkey. One group of a dozen people from Uzbekistan crossed into the United States earlier in the year and were apprehended and screened by Homeland Security. They were later released into the country pending an asylum hearing after their screenings produced no red flags. According to National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson, those that have illegally entered the country and are associated with the trafficking network are “placed into expedited removal”. Despite their connection to the network, the FBI does not believe that anyone in the Uzbek group is connected to the Islamic State.

Upon discovery of the network, US authorities worked with overseas partners to shut it down. This includes the arrest of one ISIS-linked man in Turkey. That man is not believed to be a member of ISIS, but rather is an independent smuggler with sympathies towards the terrorist group. Turkey says it arrested four men that were part of the network, but claims that none of them have links to ISIS. However, US authorities say that Turkey does not have access to the same intelligence that they do. Although the trafficking network did not plot specific attacks on behalf of the Islamic State, the incident warranted an urgent classified briefing to Cabinet officials.  

As of August 30th, the FBI had not located all of the migrants suspected of being smuggled by the group. According to an unnamed US official that spoke to CNN, 15 of the migrants that have been located are still under scrutiny by the FBI as potential criminal threats.

Terror Watchlist

While the portion of encountered migrants on the terror watch list is very small compared to those not on the list, the issue is very serious. So far in Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23), 146 non-US citizens encountered by Border Patrol between ports of entry on the southern border have been on the terror watchlist. For comparison, the figure in FY22 was 98 and in FY17 it was 2. For US counterterrorism officials, the success of the smuggling network detailed above shows that the southern border is vulnerable to terrorist threats that may seek to hide themselves among waves of people seeking to enter the country¹.    

Cross-Border Incident Puts Lone Star In Focus 

A Texas security mission on the southern border has come under scrutiny after a man on the Mexican side was wounded by gunfire. While the exact details of the incident are not clear, members of the Democratic party are questioning the operation that has led to similar events in the past.

Operation Lone Star

Launched in March 2021, Operation Lone Star (OLS) is a joint mission between the Texas Military Department and the Department of Public Safety to secure the state’s border with Mexico. OLS was created by Governor Greg Abbott due to what he sees as a lackluster response to the southern border crisis by the federal government. Texas has contributed $4.5 billion and over 10,000 National Guardsmen to the operation. According to the state government, OLS has led to 394,000 migrant apprehensions, 31,000 criminal arrests, and the seizure of 422 million doses of fentanyl. In May, Abbott requested assistance from other states through the Emergency Management Assistance Compact. At least 14 states have provided aid in the form of law enforcement officers or National Guard troops, with Florida supplying the most aid.   

The operation has come under scrutiny from Democrats and human rights groups before, who call it inhumane and a violation of the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution. Abbott has defended his move by saying, “Operation Lone Star continues to fill the dangerous gaps created by the Biden Administration’s refusal to secure the border”.  

August Incident

On August 26th, a Texas National Guardsman on duty at the border in El Paso shot and wounded a man on the Mexican side. The 22-year-old from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, was taken to the hospital and later released. He initially told police that he was attempting to cross the border. However he later told Mexican newspaper El Diario that he was playing sports while a group of migrants were attempting to cross near him when shots rang out and he was hit in the leg. Two unnamed Customs and Border Patrol officials contradicted the wounded man’s claims, telling the WSJ that he was attacking a group of migrants with a knife when he was shot. 

The Texas Department of Public Safety acknowledged that officers responded to a call of a shooting involving a soldier along the border at around 8:50 pm local time, but did not provide any other details. The incident is under investigation by the Texas Rangers. Mexican authorities in the state of Chihuahua have launched an investigation as well.

This is not the first time a Texas National Guardsman has fired his service weapon while serving in OLS.  In January, Specialist Angel Gallegos, an infantryman with the Guard, was patrolling the border near the city of Mission when he shot Ricardo Rodriguez Nieto, an illegal immigrant from Mexico. Gallegos said that he accidentally fired his duty pistol while wrestling with Nieto. However, Nieto says that the shot was fired from the kitchen of an abandoned home into the living room. The Hidalgo County District Attorney eventually declined to charge Spc. Gallegos due to a lack of evidence and unclear jurisdiction. In early 2022, another guardsman in Laredo used his M4 carbine to disable a Chrysler 300 sedan by firing into the engine block. The soldier told investigators that the driver of the sedan, a suspected smuggler, was trying to run over another soldier².    

Taiwan Out of Central American Parliament

On August 21st, the Central American Parliament voted to expel Taiwan as a permanent observer nation in favor of the People’s Republic of China. This move comes as the region is continuing to shift in favor of China, leaving Taiwan with less and less friends. 

What is PARLACEN?

The Central American Parliament (PARLACEN) is the legislative body of the Central American Integration System that was formed in 1991. The assembly seeks to further human rights and international law by tackling political, cultural, economic, and security issues. Its six members are Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic, and Panama. Additionally, Mexico, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Morocco, and now, China, all have permanent observer status.

The capital of PARLACEN is in Guatemala City and the current president is Anadi Cerrud Acevedo of Panama. The center-left to center-right Democratic Center hold 48 of 126 seats; while left-wing Parliamentary Left holds 30 seats.   

Shifting Lanes

The Republic of China (Taiwan) was granted permanent observer status in 1991. At that time all of PARLACEN’s member nations formally recognized Taiwan over China. The August 21st decision to reverse that recognition has been coming for some time. In 2017, Panama switched its recognition to China, followed by El Salvador and the Dominican Republic the year after. In 2021, Nicaragua made the same decision and Honduras followed suit in March 2023. In April 2022, PARLACEN released a statement in support of a One China Policy, which acknowledges that Taiwan and the Chinese mainland are together one nation that is governed from Beijing and not Taipei.  

This month’s vote to remove Taiwan as an observer came at the request of the Nicaraguan delegation, who argued that the observer status granted to the country was illegitimate due to its lack of recognition as a sovereign state at the United Nations. Beijing welcomed the move, calling it the “correct decision”. This may also led to Taiwan’s removal from other organizations, such as the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI), which relies heavily on loans from Taiwan. 

Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, a Marxist dictator, has spent years trying to bring China and Russia closer to the region. In April of this year, Ortega invited Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to the country in an attempt to grant Russia status as an observer nation of PARLACEN. Ultimately, that effort failed due to other regional leaders condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand though, Ortega clearly had success with bringing China into the fold. In addition to the PARLACEN vote, Ortega was able to hammer out a free trade deal with China, which was signed on Thursday. The nation is Central America’s second largest trading partner, with trade between China and Latin America overall increasing 2600% in the last 20 years³.

Looking Forward

Border security will continue to be an issue as the current administration fails to adequately secure the border with Mexico. The issue will be highlighted as the 2024 election draws closer. For that same reason, state officials may increase their activities on the southern border in order to appeal to voters that prioritize “law and order”. Central America will generally continue to grow its ties to Beijing. The only PARLACEN member that still recognizes Taiwan is Guatemala. With the recent election of Bernardo Arévalo, the future of that relationship is unclear. Arévalo has said that he wants to maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but at the same time wants to increase trade with China. Beijing may not be so eager to trade with Guatemala if Arévalo keeps that position.