Bulletin From The Borderlands

01 July 2023

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Kitbag Conversations : A team of retired Marine and Army Intelligence analysts and the founders of the Croatoan Report and Kitbag Conversations, foreign policy and security affairs podcasts. The Team Leader for Bulletin From The Borderlands.

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He attends San Jose State University and is pursuing a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the assistant lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

Sino Talk : Sino Talk is China watcher with extensive experience living and studying in China. In another life, he was a Marine intelligence analyst. 

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Callisto Report: The Callisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events.

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In This Issue:

The Americas: Covered in this issue by Analyze & Educate

China’s involvement in the Western Hemisphere is being highlighted once again. The Wall Street Journal broke a report about a potential Chinese military training facility in Cuba. This comes after revelations of a Chinese spy base on the island nation were made public. Also, the DoJ is targeting Chinese companies due to their role in the fentanyl epidemic the United States is currently dealing with.  

Europe : Covered in this issue by Meridian News and the Expeditionary Intelligence Group

Europe is boiling over with unrest from civil disobedience to a coup attempt in Russia. In France, violent protests erupted after a 17 year old boy was shot and killed by police. Riots quickly ensued over what  many believe to be a systemic issue within the department leading to hundreds of arrests. Additionally, we break down the timeline of Wagner’s now infamous 24-hour Coup that turned Russia’s home front upside down.

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by Sino Talk

The Taiwanese Defense Ministry recently reiterated they will shoot down Chinese military aircraft or balloons that enter the island’s airspace or its territorial waters. The Chinese defense minister met their Vietnamese counterpart and said they are ‘willing’ to increase defense ties with the country during their meeting in Beijing. Japanese political parties are amending its security policy to include provisions that will enable them to export their next generation fighter jet to other countries. Korea Aerospace Industries Ltd. (KAI) handed over the last MUH-1 Marine One helicopter to the Republic of Korea Marine Corps, which now has an organic air component after an approximately 30-year hiatus. 

The Philippine Air Force (PAF) is considering an upgraded version of KAI’s FA-50 light fighter or KF-21 next-generation fighter as the country’s next generation multi-role fighter jet. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations began planning a joint naval exercise to be held in September in the South China Sea (SCS) despite reluctance from Cambodia. Thai political parties are still in the process of creating the new coalition government, with the Pheu Thai Party posed to take the Prime Minister role. Indonesia is planning to buy 12 secondhand Mirage-2000-5 jet aircraft to strengthen the country’s air defenses despite lack of funds. 

The Indian military is poised to introduce the Akash Teer, an domestically developed Automated Air Defense Control and Reporting System, by early 2024 to optimize its air defense operations. The Solomons Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare said his country should review the security agreement it has with Australia after a meeting with the country’s defense minister. 

Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by the S2 Fwd

An Iraqi refugee in Sweden burnt a Quran in Stockholm during one of the holiest holidays in Islam, which sparked international outcry and is almost certainly going to disrupt Sweden’s bid to join NATO. Massive protests will likely continue in Baghdad – either in the Tahrir Square or in/on the Swedish Embassy, which was observed on June 29^th. These protests will likely continue as the perpetrator of the demonstration claims he will conduct another Quran burning within 10 days.

Africa: Covered in this issue by the Expeditionary Intelligence Group

In the past two weeks, the continent of Africa has seen several large-scale developments. In this issue, we dive into Kenya taking over the regional small arms committee, Ethiopia making a formal request to BRICS, and a large-scale attack in Uganda that led to the death of multiple students. Beyond what we cover, Africa has experienced much more since the last bulletin. 

North Africa: Drones from an unknown origin struck Wagner base in Libya.

East Africa: Al-Shabaab in Somalia has been increasing attacks and has conducted large attacks in and around the capital of Mogadishu.

West Africa: A large Shell oil spill in the delta region of Nigeria has not only created an environmental mess yet has also allegedly destroyed hectares of Nigerian farms.

Central Africa: After over 50 days of fighting no end is in sight for the violence in Sudan.

South Africa: Namibia courts rule to recognize same-sex marriage.

Looking forward it is expected that violence will continue in Sudan and cleanup of the Nigerian oil spill will continue. Additionally, we are expecting to see security landscapes shift following the attempted coup by the Wagner group in Russia. With the group dissolving its relationship with Russia and having a prominent footprint in Africa advancing Russian interest it is unclear how Wagner and Russia will continue operations on the continent. 

The Big Points:

The Highlight: Mercenaries Are Bad For The State

After weeks and weeks of frustration in his workplace,  fighting with middle management and the nepo baby moron corporate vice president, Yevgeny Prigozhin did what any reasonable person would do in an unhealthy workplace environment, and took it up directly with the boss.

Unlike most of us, he brought tanks.

In 24 hours, Prigozhin’s Wagner Group captured two major Russian cities largely without bloodshed, marched within an hour of Moscow, and shot down 2-4 Russian Army helicopters. He may even have caused Putin to flee the Kremlin. Prigozhin’s march only ended when Belarussian president Andrei Lukashenko intervened personally, granting Putin’s Chef and his mercenary army shelter in abandoned Belarussian air bases.

Everyone should have seen this coming. Beyond the clear signals Prigozhin has been shooting at the Kremlin for weeks about lack of ammunition and misuse (as he saw it) of his troops, this is how state use of mercenaries historically trends. Eventually the mercenaries get tired of getting hammered, get tired of not being paid properly, and get tired of losing. They see all this nice open ground behind them, just there for the looting, and off they go.

Failure to put down this rebellion is telling. Will, capability, and competence were all lacking in the Russian state’s response. The mercenaries seem to have gotten away with it. Which suggests, if history continues to rhyme, that this will happen again.

See Also:

• Russia has forced an evacuation from the Zaporozhya nuclear power plant. Ukraine has accused Russia of intending to blow up the plant.

• Ethiopia has requested to join BRICS

• Following the Wagner Mutiny, Yevgeny Prigozhin has disappeared, but remains active.

• Fires in Canada are causing massive cloud of smoke to flow across the U.S.

• Political setbacks rock Taiwan’s Taiwan People’s Party party after leadership supports unification, buoying the electoral chances of the Kuomintang and Democratic People’s Party, both of whom support Taiwanese independence.

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick

Mingling with the Locals

China and Cuba are reportedly negotiating on the establishment of a military training base on the island nation. This comes after reports earlier in the month detailed a Chinese surveillance base in Cuba that is targeting communications in the United States. Those details can be found in the last issue of the Bulletin.

Base Details

Not many details regarding the base are yet known to the public. According to the WSJ, via an unnamed “senior US official”, China and Cuba are still determining what type of training the base would facilitate and what the base’s command structure would look like. That unnamed source also said that it is unclear exactly how far along the countries were in their talks. 

The WSJ cited another unnamed official that claimed the base is a part of “Project 141”, a Chinese initiative to station its troops in countries around the world. This project was first made public in April by Airman First Class Jack Teixeira, in a mass leaking of classified documents in multiple Discord servers. According to one of the documents outlining Project 141, China seeks to have established at least five military bases and ten logistical support sites overseas by 2030.     

US Reaction   

This week, Sen. Bob Menedez (D) and Rep. Michael McCaul (R), who chair the Senate and House Foreign Relations Committees respectively, have asked the Biden administration to give members of Congress a classified briefing on the matter. The lawmakers cited the “national security implications of this direct provocation by [US] adversaries” as the reason for a briefing. They want that briefing to be held no later than July 14th and made sure to mention the proximity of Cuba to Florida, roughly 100 miles at the closest point, in their statement.

This report of course comes just after the visit of Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing. Blinken was the first cabinet-level official to visit China in five years. During that visit China refused to reestablish military communications with the purpose of deconfliction with the United States. Blinken was asked by reporters about the potential training base in Cuba. His response was that he made it “very clear” to Chinese officials that the US was “deeply [concerned] about PRC intelligence or military activities in Cuba.”   

Why Does This Matter? 

China is increasing its activities in Cuba, a historical US adversary that lies just 100 miles from Key West, Florida. The US military and some of its allies are shifting towards the Indo-Pacific region to counter potential threats from the People’s Republic of China. With that fact in mind, warfighters in leadership roles should become familiar with China’s moves into the Western Hemisphere as well in order to better prepare the men and women in their care. Any armed conflict with China would likely not be contained to the Southern & Western Pacific Ocean. The potential for Chinese forces on the doorstep of the Southern United States must be taken into account¹.  

Moving Poison Across the Pacific

For the first time ever, the US Department of Justice has charged four Chinese companies and some of their employees in connection to the production and trafficking of fentanyl. The four chemical manufacturing companies are accused of producing and trafficking precursor chemicals needed to produce fentanyl to Mexico and the United States.

The Fentanyl Epidemic

Illegally made fentanyl (IMF) has become a major issue in the United States. In 2022, an estimated 110,000 Americans died from fentanyl overdoses. Additionally, overdoses from the drug are the leading cause of death for those ages 18-49. The drug is 50 times more potent than heroin and 100 times more potent than morphine.

The precursor chemicals needed to make fentanyl are mostly made in China. Chinese companies have long been accused of knowingly shipping those chemicals to criminal elements, like cartels, to produce fentanyl. Those shipments supposedly enter two main ports in Mexico, Lazaro Cardenas in Michoacan, controlled by the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), or Mazatlan, Sinaloa, controlled by the Sinaloa Cartel.  

IMF is largely produced and trafficked into the United States by Mexican drug cartels. It is often mixed with heroin, cocaine, and methamphetamine. Many of those who come into contact with IMF are unaware of such contact due to the drug mixed in with other narcotics.   

DoJ Indictments

In the Southern District of New York, Wuhan-based AmarvelBiotech was indicted, along with three of its employees: Qingzhou Wang, an executive, Yiyi Chen, marketing manager, and Anita Yang, sales representative. The company and its employees were charged with fentanyl trafficking, precursor chemical importation, and money laundering. Wang and Chen are both Chinese nationals that were living in Fiji, but were expelled from the country on June 8th and arrested by the DEA from there. Yang is still at large. 

The DoJ claims that Amarvel openly advertises online the sale of fentanyl precursor chemicals to Mexico and the US that are used by Mexican drug cartels. The company advertises these chemicals as a “Mexico hot sale”, guaranteeing “100% stealth shipping”. Their website confirms shipments to Culiacan, Mexico, home of the Sinaloa Cartel of Joaquin “El Chapo '' Guzman fame. Yang specifically is accused of shipping more than 200 kilograms of chemicals to the US. In November 2022, DEA Confidential Source-1 messaged Yang that he was producing fentanyl and that shipping the chemicals was “not safe”. Yang replied “I know”. During a meeting in March 2023 with CS-1 & another source, CS-2, Wang and Chen said that they had many customers in Mexico and America that could assist the two with fentanyl production. 

In the Eastern District of New York, Chinese chemical companies Rencheng Ltd. and Anhui Moker New Material Technology Co. were charged with conspiracy to distribute fentanyl, manufacture of fentanyl, and related crimes. Four employees were charged as well: Shutong Wang, Shifang Ruan, Xinyu Zhao, and Yue Ghao. The four are accused of customs fraud by mislabeling packages, as well as distributing controlled substances.

A second indictment in the district charged Hefei GSK Trade Co. Ltd., Hebei Sinaloa Trading Co. Ltd., and a man named Ruiqing Li with the same offensives as those in the first EDNY indictment. The defendants were allegedly aware of the role that their chemicals have in the production of fentanyl and even provided advice to their customers as to how to produce the drug. 

What Does It Matter?

Fentanyl is currently a plague on American society. Some pundits believe that the Chinese government is complicit with the selling of precursor chemicals with the knowledge that they will be used to make fentanyl bound for the US market. Furthermore, those pundits believe China is deliberately attempting to weaken the military-aged population in the United States with this opioid epidemic.

China has responded negatively to these federal indictments in New York. This will only further strain the US-China relationship. At a time when war with China may be on the horizon, the relationship with the two countries should be studied from every angle. 

Additionally, military leaders and intelligence personnel should study the allegations laid out in these indictments in case their units were to be tasked with assisting in the fight against fentanyl or organized crime. In April, California deployed National Guard assets to help local law enforcement fight the fentanyl crisis in San Francisco².   

Looking Forward

Brodie Kirkpatrick

The US and China will continue their war of influence in Latin America. At this time, it appears that China is winning that war. If and when Congress receives a briefing on Chinese military activity in Cuba, we may have a better sense of what the situation is. We may also get a better sense of any potential US responses to those activities. Project 141 shows us where China wants to be by the end of this decade militarily speaking. On the subject of fentanyl, we will be waiting to see how the DoJ plans to bring the criminal charges detailed above against foreign companies. For the time being though, it is safe to assume that Chinese chemical companies will continue their relationships with Mexican drug cartels.