Bulletin From The Borderlands

1 March 2023

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Kitbag Conversations : A team of retired Marine and Army Intelligence analysts and the founders of the Croatoan Report and Kitbag Conversations, foreign policy and security affairs podcasts. The Team Leader for Bulletin From The Borderlands.

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He attends San Jose State University and is pursuing a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the assistant lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

Sino Talk : Sino Talk is China watcher with extensive experience living and studying in China. In another life, he was a Marine intelligence analyst. 

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Additional Contributors:

Huginn and Muninn Intelligence : A former Intelligence Operator from the New Zealand Army, since leaving the army he has been awarded a master's degree in International Security. Now based in the United Kingdom, he currently works at a boutique private intelligence company that focuses on due diligence and corporate investigations. The page was started as a side project so that its founder could continue to practice looking at European security with an analytical eye and provide his opinion on what he thinks some of these things mean. 

Whiteout Intelligence : Whiteout Intelligence is a one-man project by a former German military reconnaissance specialist who turned towards the private security sector. After having lived and worked in several of the Baltic rim countries, he decided to combine his passion for OSINT and his work-related interest in politics to provide regular insights and analyses for the complex Baltic Sea Region.

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In This Issue:

The Americas :

In Peru, pro-Pedro Castillo protests have decreased, but underlying issues persist as some protest leaders hope to restart demonstrations. President Dina Boluarte appears to have temporarily quelled protests, but uncertainty remains. Meanwhile, the US military's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is testing artificial intelligence with combat aircraft, marking a significant advancement in the technology's development. El Salvador has opened a "megaprison" to house tens of thousands of inmates connected to organized crime and street gangs, as part of President Nayib Bukele's campaign against crime. Despite criticism from human rights activists, Bukele's approach has yielded positive results, including a drastic drop in homicides. However, Mexico's former Secretary of Public Security, Genaro Garcia Luna, has been found guilty of working with one of the country's most dangerous cartels, highlighting the widespread corruption in Mexico that touches even the political elite. Luna was a key figure in the Mexican Drug War, despite taking millions of dollars in bribes from El Chapo's Sinaloa Cartel (CDS). These developments illustrate the ongoing challenges faced by governments and societies in Latin America.

Europe :

The Munich Security Conference and the Norwegian Intelligence Service have recently published their annual reports, both concluding that Russia's nuclear deterrence has increased in importance in the confrontation with the West. The reports examine the geopolitical events of the past year in order to identify trends and estimate future developments, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine being the dominating topic in both publications. Russia has been threatening to use nuclear weapons against countries supportive of Ukraine or NATO since the beginning of the invasion. According to the Norwegian Intelligence Service report, nuclear weapons are not only part of Russia's propaganda against the West, but also part of their life-insurance. Russia's nuclear doctrine has two clear criteria for when to employ nuclear weapons: if an adversary uses them first on Russia or its partners, or if the existence of the Russian state is threatened. For the initial invasion of Ukraine and the continued support of the ongoing war, Russia has drawn significant forces from the rest of its conventional military. The Munich Security Report points out that this could lead to a situation where the threat of the use of nuclear weapons increases as Russia perceives that its conventional military options are exhausted. The reports also indicate the increased importance of cyber and hybrid warfare in modern conflicts.

East Asia and Oceania:

Over the last weeks, the Asia-Pacific region was rife with significant diplomatic and military developments. In Southeast Asia, the Philippines discussed the possibility of conducting joint patrols with Australia and the United States in the South China Sea (SCS) to increase its ability to push back against Chinese aggressive actions. Vietnam and Japan conducted a joint exercise in the SCS as Vietnam looks for outside partners to assist it with China’s aggression against its SCS claims. 

In Northeast Asia, China released their Global Security Initiative during the Lanting Forum’s opening ceremony as China continues to push their alternatives to western versions of global security and modernization. South Korea will increase defense cooperation with both Japan and the United States due to the regional threats posed by China, North Korea, and Russia. The countries will also begin sharing information on North Korea’s missile and nuclear program. Japan and China also held their first formal security talks in four years as both countries face increased tensions due to Chinese aggressive actions in the region and Japan implementing their new defense policy. Taiwan will send a combined arms battalion to train in the United States later this year as the United States announced an increase to its training mission in Taiwan. 

In Oceania, the leaders of the Pacific Islands Forum met as the region became a battleground for influence between China and the United States. The leaders stated they welcome cooperation with all their development partners who can help restore their economic activity.

Central Asia and the Mid East:

Over the past week, violence between Palestinians and Israeli settlers within the West Bank is increasing at a rate which could lead to increased bloodshed between the Israeli Defense Force and Palestinian organizations. Israeli far-right political groups are demanding action against those responsible for the deaths of Jewish citizens while Palestinian groups are calling for accountability by the Israeli government to hold those responsible for the destruction of Palestinian citizens property. With both parties unyielding, it is likely that violence will continue to escalate unless the Israeli government or third party can negotiate a settlement that is amicable to each party. Attacks against Israeli settlers will almost certainly continue unless a diplomatic solution is reached where Israel ceases the development of housing units within the West Bank.

Meanwhile in Iraq, China continues to entrench itself in Iraq’s economy as the country officially announced that it will begin trading in the Chinese Yuan. This will most likely be used to maintain a steady flow of crude oil into China and counter US influence in the country.

Africa :

The Nigerian 2023 primary election experienced delays and lack of transparency, causing public trust in the electoral process to deteriorate. The current leading candidate is Bola Tinubu with 44% of the vote, but opposition parties are requesting new polls due to errors in the new electronic voting system and incidents of ballot box theft and election material vandalization. Protests have occurred in Abuja, with some supporting the INEC and others demanding new polls. The EU observer mission has also claimed a lack of transparency and operational failures. Despite this, the INEC has stated that the election will move forward with the announced results, leading to fears of political violence. In Sudan, anti-coup demonstrations continue with one protester being killed, bringing the total to 125. Security forces claim that the protesters used excessive violence, but legal procedures are underway against the police officer involved in the shooting.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: The War Grinds On

The tense security situation in Europe continues, with speculation around possible Russian attacks in Moldova and Ukraine conducting a preemptive attack against Russian positions. The ongoing assault on Bakhmut by Russia has been reported in Ukrainian media, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. Putin's instruction to increase security around Ukraine follows a series of sabotage operations by Ukraine in both Russia and Belarus. Meanwhile, the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo have agreed to a European Union proposal to normalize their long-strained ties, but more work is needed to ensure implementation. The agreement may lead to protests in Serbia, but it is a positive step towards making progress in the medium and long term.

The Long Term Concern: Xi Sets The Stage

The PLA's continued efforts to improve the frequency and quality of their combat training through the use of various technologies and fragmentary orders are a long term goa for the CCP. However, these efforts identify a lack of actual combat experience and Xi Jinping's emphasis on the importance of training under combat conditions may hinder an accelerated emphasis on force readiness. Fragmentary orders have been incorporated into exercises, forcing officers and soldiers to make decisions in realistic environments. However, while these efforts are a step in the right direction, they may not fully address the issue of the PLA's lack of combat experience.

It is estimated that these Chinese will take at least a decade to completely overhaul their military. Using Russian force design as an example, CCP leaders may be forced to introduce a split, conscripted and contracted force in the short term to address organizational and readiness challenges.

See Also:

• US forces inside near Anbar province Iraq eliminated a high profile ISIS leader while counter insurgent operations.

• Toyota's former chairman, Shoichiro Toyoda dead at 97. His company is notable for providing the iconic Toyota Hilux to international conflict zones.

• Israeli personnel reportedly burned several homes and vehicles in the West Bank following an attack by a Palestinian militant while local media reports that the violence is among the worst seen in the region in decades.

• Belarus announced the formation of a 150,000-strong territorial defense force to act as guerrillas in case of invasion amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Belarus's President Alexander Lukashenko stated that every Belarusian man must learn to handle weaponry in case of aggression.

• The Taliban released footage of their special operations unit training with a large quantity of former US/NATO weaponry left behind after taking over the Afghan government.

The Americas

A Crucial Moment For Boluarte

- Brodie Kirkpatrick

Uncertainty continues in Peru amid a decrease in demonstrations by the pro-Pedro Castillo protest movement. President Dina Boluarte appears to have hampered down protests for now and possibly saved her presidency. However, issues persist and some protest leaders are hoping to restart demonstrations.

On the Homefront

In the days following the Bulletin’s last issue, Machu Picchu reopened to the public. As detailed in the last issue, the Incan ruins are vital to Peru’s vibrant tourism industry. It’s estimated that the civil unrest cost the tourism industry almost 23,000,000 PEN (roughly $6 million USD). 

Despite a decrease in civil unrest and the potential revival of a crucial industry, the government remains unpopular, according to a new poll by the Institute of Peruvian Studies (IEP). More than 90% of respondents disapprove of Congress and 77% disapprove of President Boluarte, a one point increase from January. Only 15% of respondents approve of her rule. The number of respondents that believe elections should be held in 2023 was 69%, down four points from January. Another 19% believe elections should be held in 2024. Boluarte has supported plans for both years. Congress signaled that they would approve a plan for 2024 elections, but they have yet to ratify said plan despite widespread support for it. Additionally, 73% said that Bolaurte should resign from office, down only one point from last month. While 25% believe she should remain. Lastly, 55% of respondents believe that Peru is a democracy; while 41% believe it was not. Just 4% were unsure. 

The government has been heavily criticized for their response to demonstrations, which left 70 Peruvians dead for various reasons. A government decree published in newspaper El Peruano last week said that families who lost a relative during the protests may receive the equivalent of $13,000 USD in financial support. Those who sustained injuries can receive half that amount. Amnesty International responded negatively to this decree, saying that it does not absolve the government of responsibility for protester deaths. The organization also accused the government response of being motivated by racism. A preliminary report from Amnesty says that the government utilized “excessive and lethal force” fueled by “racial bias” to suppress protests that were mostly made up of indigenous Peruvians and campesinos (peasant farmers). 

Foreign Relations   

Peruvian relations with Mexico are continuing to decline as Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador remains staunchly in support of Pedro Castillo. AMLO has been outspoken on Castillo’s behalf since the latter’s arrest. Castillo was on the way to the Mexican embassy in Lima when he was arrested. Mexico also granted asylum to Castillo’s immediate family. This was followed by the Mexican ambassador to Peru being expelled in December. 

 On February 24th, Boluarte recalled Peru’s ambassador to Mexico due to AMLO’s continuing public support for Castillo. In an address that day. She accused AMLO of supporting an attempted coup as he has referred to Castillo peru as being “illegally ousted”. Speaking on the situation, Boluarte said, “Mr. Lopez has decided to seriously affect the bicentennial relations of mutual respect, friendship, co-operation, and desire for integration that have historically united Peru and Mexico"¹.

DARPA Makes Aviation History

- Brodie Kirkpatrick

Artificial intelligence is continuing to evolve as the US military’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has begun testing it with combat aircraft. Up until this month, Ai only ever flew aircraft on a simulator.

What is DARPA?

DARPA, founded in 1958, is an agency subordinate to the Department of Defense that oversees the development and testing of new technologies for the military. The agency’s genesis was the 1957 launch of Sputnik, the first satellite launched into low Earth orbit by the Soviet Union. Sputnik came as a surprise to the world and triggered the Space Race with the United States. DARPA was created to keep the United States at the forefront of technological advancement, as opposed to our communist adversaries.  

Making History 

DARPA’s Air Combat Evaluation (ACE) program seeks to develop and test artificial intelligence integration with fighter aircraft. ACE has been using the F-16 Fighting Falcon, a multirole air superiority fighter in service with the US Air Force since 1978. 

For most of the program’s three year life, AI had only flown F-16 simulations. In 2020, ACE held the AlphaDogfight competition, which saw AI programs engage each other in simulated dogfights. The winning AI faced off against a human F-16 pilot in a flight simulator. An AI developed by Maryland software company Heron Systems beat the human 5-0. It is important to note though that these were only simulated dogfights and are not necessarily indicative of real life. As a staff member for the competition stated, the AI had perfect information during the simulations, which it would not have in a real dogfight. 

Early February, an AI program flew a real life F-16 for 12 flights. The test was conducted over several days at the Test Pilot School at Edwards Air Force Base in the California desert. The version of the Fighting Falcon that was used is called the Variable In-Flight Simulator Test Aircraft (VISTA). ACE was actually able to skip a step due to the availability of VISTA, instead of testing on a smaller aircraft as planned. According to ACE program manager Lt. Col. Ryan Hefron, this saved the program at least a year².  

Bad Day to Be A Marero 

- Brodie Kirkpatrick

El Salvador has opened its “megaprison” to house tens of thousands of inmates connected to organized crime and street gangs. President Nayib Bukele’s campaign against widespread crime has yielded noticeable results. Despite condemnation from human rights activists, it’s clear that his strategy is working. The country’s new prison is a monument to the drastic drop in homicides.

Crime in El Salvador

El Salvador has been plagued by violent crime, specifically murder, since the mid-1990s after the end of the Salvadoran Civil War ( 1979-1992). The war was extremely brutal, killing roughly 80,000 combatants and civilians in the small country. It was characterized by government sponsored death squads, widespread war crimes, and child soldiers. It led to hundreds-of-thousands of Salvadorans fleeing the country; many of whom came to California. Street gangs in Los Angeles were rampant during this time and many Salvadoran youth became involved in them. The two main gangs were Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and Barrio 18 (18th Street). Latinos make up the vast majority of both gangs and the two are bitter rivals. As deportations in the United States ramped up in the 1990s, many Salvadorans were sent back to their home country. One major consequence was that deported gang members took their gangs with them.

 El Salvador has usually found a spot among the top 10 countries with the highest murder rates. This has been facilitated by MS-13 and 18th Street as the two have fought each other in the streets for years as a weak central government historically has done little to stop it. In 2017, the country held the number one spot with 61.7 murders per 100,000 people. 

This all changed last March when populist President Nayib Bukele declared a “state of exception”, expanding government powers such as warrantless arrests. The counter-gang push has yielded over 64,000 arrests and its effectiveness shows in 2022 homicide statistics. Last year, the nation registered only 495 murders. This is compared to 2021, which saw 1,147 murders; a decrease of almost 57%.  

The Center for the Confinement of Terrorism 

The CECOT is now the largest prison in the hemisphere. On February 24th, El Salvador moved 2,000 inmates into the newly opened prison which is able to hold 40,000. These alleged criminals are just the first of many groups that will be transferred to the megaprison. 

In a recent tweet President Nayib Bukele said that “this will be their new house, where they will live for decades, all mixed, unable to do any further harm to the population”. He also posted a video of the 2,000 inmates, showing them bearing gang tattoos, shaven heads, and dressed only in boxer shorts.

Many of the men are alleged to belong to two major street gangs in the country, MS-13 and 18th Street, and they have the tattoos to show it. They have been placed in custody as a result of Bukele’s “state of exception”. While human rights groups have heavily criticized Bukele and the treatment of detainees by his government, his anti-crime push and the opening of CECOT are very popular among Salvadorans at home and abroad.

The prison is heavily guarded by 19 watchtowers, over a dozen electrical fences, 250 police officers, 600 soldiers, and constant roving patrols. It also includes at least two factories for inmates to work. As a prison official told President Bukele on a facility tour, “they won’t be sent here to rest and sit there all day. This isn’t a hotel stay”. The idea, according to that official, is that they will “compensate” for some of the “harm they have done to society”³. 

The Architect of Mexico’s Drug War Found Guilty

- Brodie Kirkpatrick

Mexico’s former Secretary of Public Security has been found guilty of working hand and hand with one of the country’s most dangerous cartels. Genaro Garcia Luna was a major figure behind the Mexican Drug War, despite taking millions of dollars worth of bribes from El Chapo’s Sinaloa Cartel (CDS). His trial highlights widespread corruption in Mexico that touches even the political elite.

Guilty as Charged

Garcia Luna’s four-week trial came to an end on February 22nd. He was charged with engaging in a continuing criminal enterprise, international cocaine distribution conspiracy, making false statements, and other related criminal acts. The jury found him guilty on all charges, which stem from Garcia Luna accepting millions of dollars in bribes from CDS. He is accused of providing CDS with intelligence on other cartels and on law enforcement operations in exchange for payment. This was while Garcia Luna was a major figure in the Mexican government from 2001 to 2012. During these years he was head of the Federal Investigative Agency (Mexico’s FBI equivalent) and later the Secretary of Public Security. 

The trial was notable in that physical evidence against Garcia Luna was lacking. The prosecution in the Brooklyn trial relied on a number of witnesses, many of whom are convicted Mexican drug traffickers. This includes Jesús “El Rey” Zambada, who is the younger brother of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. El Rey is the one to bring Garcia Luna’s crimes to light when he testified at the 2019 trial of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, a high-level CDS leader and partner to his brother, El Mayo.

As he was committing these crimes, he was the architect behind President Felipe Calderon’s drug war (2006-Current). The Sinaloa Cartel was one of the more notorious and dangerous cartels at that time and it remains so today. While Garcia Luna was lining his pockets with their money, thousands of Mexicans lost their lives to CDS in the war that he started. As federal prosecutor Saritha Komatireddy said in her closing statement, CDS would have the “global cocaine empire” they do today if they did not have the aid of Garcia Luna.

Garcia Luna faces anywhere from the mandatory minimum of 20 years to a life sentence in federal prison⁴.