Bulletin From The Borderlands

15 January 2024

Jan 15, 2024

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Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He is a graduate San Jose State University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the team lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

Sino Talk : Sino Talk is China watcher with extensive experience living and studying in China. In another life, he was a Marine intelligence analyst.

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Callisto Report: The Calisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

ALCON S2: A veteran of the New Zealand military intelligence community, if it walks, talks, or crawls in Asia, ALCON S2 knows about it. Cole is the preeminent source of OSINT for the Oceania and South East Asia region.

Jillian Butler: A lifelong writer and San Diego native. She received her bachelor’s degree in English and History at the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland. Upon moving back to San Diego, she received her master’s in International Relations at the University of San Diego where she centered her research around jihadi terror. She is also a contributing writer for Pop Smoke Media, American Grit, The Modern Insurgent, and Lethal Minds Journal’s Bulletin from the Borderlands. In her free time, she can be found surfing, training jiu jitsu, or improving her craft of cooking the perfect ribeye.

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate).

A sitting senior US senator has been hit with another indictment alleging corruption. He is the only senator in US history to be charged in three federal indictments over the course of his time in office. In Ecuador, the situation has become dire as the new president has gone to war with criminal organizations. A powerful gang leader escaping prison has led to over 20 criminal groups being designated as legitimate military targets

Europe : Covered in this issue by Meridian News, Callisto Reports, and Defense Bulletin

The AUKUS approach, involving the U.S., the UK, and Australia, signifies a shift toward a mutually beneficial partnership, reducing dependency and promoting shared advancements. The United States aims to empower allies by facilitating independent growth in defense capabilities, fostering a resilient network. This collaborative model, exemplified by AUKUS, contrasts with Europe's challenges and emphasizes the need for defense frameworks that enhance the collective capabilities and autonomy of allied nations.

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by Sino Talk

Taiwan held its presidential and legislative elections on January 13th that resulted in Democratic Progressive Party’s William Lai elected as President. Taiwan also announced the island will begin development of its Advanced Defense Fighter during a recent interview. China responded to Lai’s win by issuing statements that the win did not reflect the ‘mainstream opinion’ of the Taiwanese population. Central Military Commission Vice-Chairman and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) General He Weidong said that there should be increased disciplinary supervision against ‘individuals with power and big budgets.’ Japan began land reclamation work in Oura Bay near the city of Nago for the new Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Futenma. South Korea’s Defense Minister called for maintaining the country’s capabilities to eliminate North Korea’s leadership as a deterrence against the north’s nuclear weapons.

The Philippines and Germany agreed to increase maritime security during the German Foreign Minister’s visit to the country. Myanmar’s Junta and the Three Brotherhood Alliance recently agreed to a temporary ceasefire in Northern Shan state but will continue fighting in other parts of the country. Indonesia said it is ready to work with other Association with Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries to finalize a code of conduct for the South China Sea. Cambodia and China agreed to increase communication and cultural cooperation to further enhance ties between the countries. The President of Maldives set a deadline of March 15th for India to withdraw its troops. The Indian Air Force (IAF) proposed to build an airbase on Minicoy Island located in the Arabian Sea near the southern Indian coast. Australia received approval from the United States to buy equipment and services to logistically support its Tomahawk cruise missiles it brought in September 2021.

Africa: Covered in this issue by the Expeditionary Intelligence Group, Unbiased Conflicts, Jillian Butler, and Defense Bulletin

The historical tension between Somalia and Somaliland, rooted in the colonial era and exacerbated by internal conflicts, has seen recent geopolitical developments. Ethiopia's Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, recognizing its independence and granting access to Berbera ports, is a significant shift. Somalia perceives this move as aggression, leading to strained diplomatic relations and concerns about potential conflict. The deal reflects Ethiopia's strategy to reduce dependence on Djibouti for maritime access and establish a green-water navy. Diversifying through Somaliland enhances Ethiopia's strategic flexibility, reducing vulnerability to diplomatic changes and strengthening maritime security in the vital Gulf of Aden region. This geopolitical evolution holds implications for regional stability and the Horn of Africa's future dynamics.

The Tuareg separatist movement, particularly the alliance of rebel forces known as the Permanent Strategic Framework (CSP), has intensified its presence in Northern Mali following the complete withdrawal of United Nations peacekeepers on December 31st. CSP has established roadblocks targeting key routes to cities and shared borders. Despite Mali's military struggling to contain the threat, the rebel groups have regained momentum, engaging in violence and rejecting peace dialogues. The Sahel region, including Mali, faces challenges from jihadist terrorism and the expanding influence of groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda. The arrival of the Wagner Group in Mali in 2022 has been accompanied by reports of mass human rights abuses, amplifying the jihadi terror threat and facing opposition from Islamist groups like Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). The Wagner Group's presence has led to increased violence and recruitment by Islamist terror groups.

Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by Eric Sheppler and Callisto Reports

Delve into the early history and origins of the Yazidi community in the Middle East.

The U.S. and the UK conduct retaliatory air strikes against the Houthis in Yemen. The Houthis arsenal of missiles and their sources are analyzed. The conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas is revisited.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: Ethiopia Seeks Greater Maritime Trade and Influence.

Ethiopia’s Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, recognizing its independence and providing access to Berbera ports, marks a significant geopolitical shift, causing strained relations with Somalia.

Strategic Forecast: John M. Larrier - Defense Bulletin

Spotlight on Europe and the Indo-Pacific

Since the last Bulletin release, we’ve seen a notable shift in global defense dynamics, with the AUKUS deal emerging as a pivotal model for navigating contemporary security challenges. The emphasis on collaboration, autonomy, and resilience within this alliance likely highlights the United States’ departure from traditional defense frameworks, especially for European nations struggling with vulnerabilities exposed by the Ukraine conflict.

As nations reassess their defense strategies, the AUKUS framework is likely to have far-reaching implications. The emphasis on reducing dependency and fostering shared advancements aligns with the broader trend of nations seeking to fortify their security without overreliance on a single ally. This also applies to the Indo-Pacific region, where China's growing influence has prompted a reevaluation of defense partnerships in the region .

The conversion of Japan's Izumo-class carriers further shows Japan’s evolving response to regional security challenges. Notably, North Korea and China are the two actors at the top of Japan’s list of current adversaries in the region. Japan's proactive steps to establish the ability to project power indicate a commitment to realize increased levels of readiness and combat power, especially in potential conflicts involving Taiwan or the Senkaku Islands. The move to label carriers as multi-purpose operation destroyers may also indicate Japan’s continued reticence to label their assets in a way that communicates a need to project power in the region.

However, challenges persist, such as Japan's need to justify these carriers under Article Nine of its Constitution. Similarly, Indonesia's acquisition of the Rafale aircraft highlights the delicate balance between military modernization and the financial constraints of smaller powers in the region.

The evolving defense landscape, as reflected in the AUKUS deal, Japan's carrier conversion, and Indonesia's modernization efforts, signals a paradigm shift. Nations are moving toward collaborative, adaptive, and resilient defense frameworks that reflect the complex nature of the current geopolitical environment.

While China has warned against Lai winning the elections, unlike many have theorized, China is unlikely to immediately move forward with invasion plans. We could see short term escalations in the form of exercises and/or further aggression by China in the surrounding region. Similar to their reaction to the, at the time, U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. So far there are no indications we will see these actions.

One thing to note is that China has warned other regional powers to watch how they interact with Lai's government. Most notably, Australia.

Could the election change China's timeline for kinetic action against Taiwan? Possibly, but no more than increased grey zone operations to set the tone for the possibility they have to conduct an operation to take Taiwan. Remember, Taiwan's elections are only four years away. China's armed forces have some ways to go before they can conduct an operation to take Taiwan and effectively deter the U.S. forces in the region.

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick

Menendez Catches Another Case

A senior US senator has been indicted by the Department of Justice for alleged crimes related to his official duties. Senator Bob Menendez faces a third case in relation to allegations of corruption benefitting a foreign nation. Menendez has long held senior roles in a powerful Senate committee that shapes foreign policy.

Menendez on the Foreign Relations Committee

Sen. Bob Menendez, a 70-year-old Democrat, is the senior Senator for New Jersey and has served in the role since 2006. He has served in Congress since 1993; initially as the representative for New Jersey’s 13th District. Menendez currently serves on the Senate committees on Finance, Banking, House, and Urban Affairs, and Foreign Relations. Until September, he had served as either the Chairman or Ranking Member of the Foreign Relations Committee since 2013. This committee is considered one of the most powerful in the Senate due to its jurisdiction over all diplomatic missions and influence over foreign policy.

Dismissed Charges

Sen. Menendez was first indicted on corruption charges by the Department of Justice in 2015. The specific charges were bribery, fraud, and making false statements and were the result of a 2013 raid targeting a friend and major donor. The donor was Salomon Melgen and Menendez was investigated for advancing his interests.

According to the indictment, Menendez used his influence to pressure the Dominican Republic to enforce a security contract that benefitted Melgen’s company. This was around the same time that Melgen pledged to give $60,000 to the senator’s 2012 re-election campaign. In total, the company donated more than $950,000 to that campaign. Prosecutors claim that $750,000 of those donations were tied to personal benefits that Menendez received. The indictment also alleged that Menendez acted as Melgen’s “personal senator”, working to obtain visas for Melgen’s foreign love interests. He was accused of accepting five-star Paris hotel rooms, trips on a private jet, access to an exclusive Dominican resort, and other perks. Some of those perks were not reported on the senator’s financial disclosures.

Menendez briefly stepped down as the Foreign Relations Committee ranking member after being charged. The case went to trial in late 2017. The judge overseeing the case declared a mistrial after the jury failed to reach a verdict on the charges. In 2018, the charges against Menendez were dropped.

Active Cases

Menendez was indicted for a second time in September 2023. This time, he and his wife, Nadine Menendez, were accused of working with businessmen to aid their businesses and the Egyptian government by providing sensitive US government information. Those three businessmen are Jose Uribe, Wael Hana, and Fred Daibes. They allegedly engaged in these corrupt relationships from 2018-2022.

In exchange for using his influence as a senior senator, Mendenez and his wife were allegedly given hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of gifts. This includes at least $550,000 in cash, 81.5 ounces of gold bars valued at $155,000, payments made towards their home mortgage, a luxury vehicle, and other items of value. These gifts were discovered during a raid on their home by federal authorities in June 2022.

In October, additional charges were added to the second indictment. They were charged in connection to conspiring to have the senator act as a foreign agent of Egypt. According to the indictment, the couple met with an Egyptian intelligence official, “Egyptian Official-1”, and Wael Hana in the senator’s office in 2019. A photo of this meeting is included in the indictment, showing the Menendez’s, Hana, Egyptian Official-1, and three other unidentified Egyptian officials. They discussed the issue of a US citizen that was injured in an Egyptian airstrike. Multiple US lawmakers believed that Egypt did not give the man fair compensation, so they objected to military aid to Egypt. Menendez allegedly searched the American’s name online and one week later Hana and the Egyptian Official-1 texted each other in Arabic, with the official telling Hana that if the senator helped resolve the issue “he will sit very comfortably”. Hana replied by saying “consider it done”.

The next year in 2020, Nadine Menendez texted the same Egyptian official, saying, “anytime you need anything you have my number and we will make everything happen.” Less than a week later, she arranged a meeting between her husband and Egyptian Official-1 to discuss Egypt, Sudan, and a dam that Ethiopia was constructing along the Nile River. Within a month, Sen. Menendez wrote a letter to the secretaries of the treasury and the state department expressing his concern over stalled negotiations regarding the dam. He wrote, “I therefore urge you to significantly increase the State Department’s engagement on the negotiations surrounding the dam”. It is illegal for members of Congress, or any other public officials, to act as a foreign agent.

Sen. Bob Menendez splits from super-lawyer

Prosecutors say that Nadine Menendez and Wael Hana failed to register as foreign agents and conspired to have the senator act as such on behalf of Egypt. Prosecutors say that the senator clearly knew of the law as he wrote to Attorney General Merrick Garland in 2022 regarding the investigation into David Rivera, a former Republican congressman from Florida that was charged with acting as a foreign agent.

The second indictment also details a car crash that then-Nadine Arslanian was involved in while she was romantically involved with Sen. Menendez, but before the two were married. In December 2018, Arslanian was driving her Mercedes-Benz in Bogota, New Jersey when she struck and killed a pedestrian, 49-year-old Richard Koop. Koop had just exited from the left side passenger door of an Uber when he was struck. After he was hit, Arslanian remained in her car until police officers arrived and did not check to see if Koop was okay. She told a responding officer that Koop jumped on her windshield. She also denied that officer’s request to see her phone, which is normally done in fatal collisions to see if the driver was texting when the accident occurred.

The second indictment against the Menendez’s claims that on September 6th, 2019, “Official-2” met with Sen. Menendez at his office in Newark, New Jersey “in an attempt, through advice and pressure, to cause Official-2 to favorably resolve the investigation” of Koop’s death. The indictment also claimed that the luxury vehicle that was identified as a bribe paid to the couple was meant to be a replacement for the vehicle Arslanian totaled when she struck Koop. While Nadine Menendez (Arslanian) was never formally charged for the incident, Koop’s family sued Menendez and her insurance in court. Menendez was found to be at fault in the accident

After the second indictment, a number of Democratic politicians called for Menendez to resign. This includes New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy, the state’s General Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin, and roughly 30 US Senators; such as John Fetterman (D-PA). Fetterman even voiced support for a resolution to expel Menendez from the Senate. Thus far, no such resolution has made it to the floor and given Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s reluctance to pass judgment on Menendez before he has been convicted, it is unlikely that such a resolution will be brought to the chamber while the cases are still active. Menendez responded to calls for his resignation by referencing his Cuban background, saying, “It is not lost on me how quickly some are rushing to judge a Latino and push him out of his seat. I am not going anywhere”.

On January 2nd, 2024, Sen. Menendez was hit with his third indictment, again alleging corruption. He is accused of accepting gifts in exchange for making positive comments about the government of Qatar. Menendez made positive comments about Qatar in order to aid a New Jersey real estate developer. That developer is Fred Daibes, also identified and charged in the September 2023 indictment. Daibes wanted to secure an investment from a Qatari sheikh and sought Menendez’s assistance in securing that investment.

Qatar has long been a concern of the US and European nations in terms of influence operations. In 2022, a EU parliament official was charged in relation to a Qatari bribes investigation. Qatar has also been accused of bribing FIFA officials to host the 2022 World Cup, which Menendez attended and Daibes may have attended. Additionally, retired Marine Corps General John R. Allen was investigated for secretly lobbying on behalf of Qatar last year. Although, he was not charged.

In June 2021, Menendez reportedly introduced Daibes to the wealthy sheikh, who is also a member of the Qatari royal family. While the deal between the two parties was being hammered out, the senator made several public positive statements in his capacity as a lawmaker regarding the Qatari government. Menendez also provided Daibes with these statements so he could share them with the investor and his government.

In September 2021, Menendez and Daibes went to a private event in Manhattan held by the Qatari government. A few days later, Daines sent Menendez pictures of wrist watches ranging in price from $9,900-$23,990 with the caption, “How about one of these”. Days later, the two talked about a Senate resolution supporting Qatar. After a letter of intent was signed between Daibes and the Qatari investor, Daibes met with Menendez and his wife for dinner. Hours after that dinner, Menendez searched on Google “one kilo gold price”. The senator is accused of accepting cash, gold bars, a designer watch, and Formula 1 tickets for a relative in exchange for assisting Daibes with securing the sheikh’s investment.

Menendez and his wife have categorically denied the allegations against them. They have also pleaded ‘not guilty’ to all of the charges outlined in the indictments. Their lawyers say that “The Senator stands behind all of his official actions and decisions, and will be proud to defend them at trial." The senator is currently free on bail. The trial for his September indictment is set to begin on May 6th. Despite stepping down from the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he remains a voting member of that committee1.

Noboa Goes to War in Ecuador

The situation in Ecuador has gone from bad to worse. Despite the arrival of a new president, chaos has swept over the country and criminal elements are testing their luck against the government more than they ever have. The country that used to be one of the safest in the region less than a decade ago has made a turn in the complete opposite direction and finds itself in the midst of an internal conflict.

Background

Ecuador used to be one of the safest countries in South America. That changed within the past decade when pre-existing criminal groups began to take advantage of the country’s geography. Positioned in between Colombia and Peru, the two largest cocaine producers in the world, old gangs were able to expand and new ones arose. Colombian and Mexican cartels made their way into the country, forming relationships with local gangs. This changed the criminal landscape of Ecuador.

Ecuadorian cartels fighting amongst each other for control over drug routes and other logistically important areas became common. The homicide rate has jumped considerably and as of August 2023 has even topped Mexico. From 2016 to 2022, that rate increased 500%. Massacres of civilians, attacks against security forces, and bombings have become an everyday reality of life in the country’s largest cities. The province of Esmeraldas, for example, had a homicide rate of 81 per 100,000 people in 2022. In terms of provinces and states, that puts it in third place for homicide rates in Latin America, according to InSight Crime. Battles between cartels for control over Ecuador’s ports play a large role in explaining that statistic.

Other factors can explain the massive rise in crime. According to Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, the country was hit hard by COVID-19. This led to increased poverty and hunger; leaving cartels and gangs with a large pool of young men to draw from. Additionally, Ecuador switched its currency to the US dollar in 2000, making it easier for organizations to engage in money laundering.

We highlighted the proliferation of crime in the country in the lead up to the 2023 presidential election. That election caught the attention of the world in August when candidate and former assemblyman Fernando Villavicenio was assassinated when leaving a campaign event in Quito.

It is believed that a criminal organization ordered that killing, but it isn’t yet clear which one. Thirteen suspects were arrested in connection to the assassination, with at least six being described as “Colombian hitmen”. Seven of the suspects were later killed in prison. While crime was already the major issue in the minds of Ecuadorians, the assassination became a focal point of the election.

The 2023 election was triggered by then-President Guillermo Lasso when he enacted muerte cruzada (mutual death), a mechanism in the constitution that dissolves the National Assembly and establishes presidential rule-by-decree until special elections for the Assembly and presidency are held. Assemblyman Daniel Noboa won the election in October, becoming the youngest man elected as President of Ecuador at 36-years-old. It would be an understatement to say that Noboa was elected to solve the issue of rampant gang and cartel violence across the nation. Because Noboa came to power as the result of a snap election, he will only govern for the rest of the term started by President Lasso. The next scheduled presidential election is in 2025, which Noboa will be eligible to run in.

Noboa hit the ground running when he was sworn in by attempting to root out corrupt security officials and judges that were working with criminal groups. The operation, Metastasis, saw the arrests of 20 high level officials and judges in December. It is believed that the current conflict was caused in part by Metastasis putting pressures on cartels.

Conflict Erupts

This conflict is tied to Jose Adolfo Macias Villamar (aka “Fito”). Macias is the leader of Los Choneros, one of the more prominent drug cartels in the country that has aligned itself with the Sinaloa Cartel in Mexico. Just before Macias was set to be moved to a maximum security facility he escaped prison on January 8th. He had been in prison since 2011, with the exception of two months in 2013 after his first escape. President Noboa reacted to Macias’ escape by declaring a 60-day state of emergency.

Criminal organizations reacted that same night by lashing out across Ecuador. Their actions escalated the next day with gunmen storming a television station in the city of Guayaquil and taking hostages. Those gunmen were seen with shotguns, automatic weapons, and explosives. Specialized units later raided the building and arrested 13 individuals, who the government says will be charged with terrorism. Videos posted to social media also show police officers being captured, prison guards being executed by gang members, and bodies laying in the streets of the capital city. Multiple car bombs were exploded across the country and civilians were attacked. President Noboa declared an “intel armed conflict” and mobilized the military to deal with “terrorist groups” on January 9th. That declaration identifies 22 criminal groups and designates them terrorist organizations. Among those mentioned include Los Choneros and a familiar name, the Latin Kings.

He is Ecuador's youngest president-elect. What lies ahead for Daniel Noboa? | Elections News | Al Jazeera

Attacks across the country are still ongoing. At least 15 people have been identified as dead or critically wounded via open sources. Inmates in five prisons around the country were able to seize control of at least a portion of their prisons. They were holding at least 125 guards and 14 administrative staff hostage until all of the hostages were released on Friday night..

Banks, markets, and stores have been closed throughout the country, especially in Quito and Guayaquil. Looting was reported in some areas of those larger cities during the opening days of the conflict. Additionally, the Minister of Education closed schools and shifted to remote learning until at least January 12th. Public transportation in Quito was reduced and security is being increased at the Mariscal Sucre International Airport. The commander of the Joint Command of Ecuador’s Armed Forces, Admiral Jaime Vela Erazo, vowed not to “back down or negotiate” with criminal groups. He added that every group identified in President Noboa’s decree is officially viewed as a legitimate military target.

Multiple countries have expressed support for the Ecuadorian government and people in the face of this violence. This includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, and the United States. US Ambassador Brian Nichols stated that the country was ready to provide assistance to Ecuador and will remain in contact with Noboa regarding that support. It isn’t clear what kind of support is being discussed; although the White House did confirm that American troops will not be deployed. Argentina, which also has a new president at the helm, has been discussing potential deployments of security forces to help bolster Ecuador's police and armed forces. Additionally, Ecuador’s neighbor Peru, has declared a state of emergency along its entire northern border and has ordered the deployment of special police and military units to the area in case violence spills over the border2 .

Looking Forward

Senator Bob Menendez has been defiant in the face of calls for his resignation. He is also expected to vigorously defend his case in court. He is running for reelection this year and is facing a primary challenge from Representative Andy Kim of New Jersey’s 3rd District. A poll released in mid-December showed Kim at 45% support. Behind him was New Jersey’s first lady Tammy Murphy with 22% and Senator Menendez with 3%. New Jersey’s Primary Elections will be held on June 4th. In Ecuador, President Noboa’s strategy has already been criticized as lacking. Once the television channel in Guayaquil was seized, Noboa jumped straight to the top of the escalation ladder by declaring war. However, numerous videos on social media show the arrests of suspected gang members by security forces. Additionally, control over prisons is being regained and troops are being deployed across the country to deal with this issue quickly. It is too early to tell how successful Noboa’s operation will end up.

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