Bulletin From The Borderlands

01 April 2023

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Kitbag Conversations : A team of retired Marine and Army Intelligence analysts and the founders of the Croatoan Report and Kitbag Conversations, foreign policy and security affairs podcasts. The Team Leader for Bulletin From The Borderlands.

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He attends San Jose State University and is pursuing a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the assistant lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

Sino Talk : Sino Talk is China watcher with extensive experience living and studying in China. In another life, he was a Marine intelligence analyst. 

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Additional Contributors:

Whiteout Intelligence : Whiteout Intelligence is a one-man project by a former German military reconnaissance specialist who turned towards the private security sector. After having lived and worked in several of the Baltic rim countries, he decided to combine his passion for OSINT and his work-related interest in politics to provide regular insights and analyses for the complex Baltic Sea Region.

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In This Issue:

The Americas :

A deadly fire breaks out in a migrant facility across the border from Texas, highlighting the chaotic situation along the US-Mexico border. The United States Congress weighs banning Tik Tok due to allegations of the app spying on its users. Taiwan loses a diplomatic partner in Central America to China. Lastly, a former president is indicted in New York for the first time in US history. 

Europe :

Corruption is big news across Europe. Credit Suisse has been absorbed into several other banks after wide ranging corruption and money laundering investigations turned up significant fraud. The resale of arms supplied to Ukraine by the West is increasingly a major concern, as these arms are popping up in conflict zones across the Middle East and Africa. Western trained troops and equipment have finally rotated back into Ukraine and it appears that a new Ukrainian offensive is imminent. Turkey finally ratifies Finnish entry into NATO, marking the largest expansion of the alliance in almost half a century. Sweden’s entry into NATO is still on hold, the Turkish government seeking additional action against Kurdish political dissidents within Sweden.

East Asia and Oceania:

Diplomacy is a continuing theme in Northeast Asia as Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is visiting its remaining Latin American allies as Honduras established relations with China. Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou is visiting China to observe the Qingming (tomb cleaning) festival and leading a group of students in several exchanges in several universities in China.  Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced Japan’s new Indo-Pacific plan designed to counter China’s rising influence during his trip to India. 

In southeast Asia, increased cooperation between allies and continued South China Sea (SCS) tensions are a continuing trend. The Philippines, the United States, Japan, and Australia are conducting the Salaknib exercise, where territorial defense is the exercise’s main focus. The country will also host the Balikatan exercise with the United States and Australia next month. Vietnam also tracked a Chinese Coast Guard vessel as it sailed through a Russian operated gas field in its exclusive economic zone, increasing an already tense relationship. 

Diplomatic visits was also a theme in the Oceania region with several nations visiting each other to increase influence in the region. High-level delegations from the United States, New Zealand, and Japan signed various agreements during their visits to the Solomon Islands. The visits and agreements come as the nation is increasing its relationship with China. The Australian Parliament released a report that called for increased oversight on the Australian Defense Force while rejecting calls to give Parliament veto powers over when the country goes to war. .

Central Asia and the Mid East:

Syria has become an increasingly dynamic area between the United States and Iranian-backed militias over the past several weeks, leaving several casualties on both sides. Israel continues to strike IRGC members supporting the Syrian Regime. This tit-for-tat exchange has the possibility to grow as tensions continue to rise in eastern Syria.

Africa :

Uganda has criminalized homosexuality. Nigeria is still suffering political instability following allegations of election fraud by the sitting president in February. DRC continues peace negotiations without including several of its major insurgent groups, and banditry and Islamic insurgency is still rampant across North Africa and the Sahel. Ethiopia and Egypt remain in conflict over Ethiopian dam construction, but the Ethiopian-Tigrayan peace seems to be holding, marking an unusually successful de-escalation of hostilities within the region.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: Bakhmut Stalls Out

Russian forces seemed to be in position to take Bakhmut last month. They have since failed. Russian forces are still in the city, but seem to have been unable to push further forward against a firm Ukrainian defense. Russian losses in the city have increased exponentially over the past weeks, followed by the dismissal and replacement of several Russian commanders. Wider Russian offensive operations across Ukraine have similarly petered out and failed, with little territorial gain, and significant Russian casualties.

The Long Term Concern: Creaking In The Foundations

Get off Tik Tok.

The tools by which states affect the views and opinions of foreign populations have exploded in the digital age. It is now possible for a foreign government to directly communicate with citizens of an opposing state through their cell phones. Our long term concern this week is the increasing prevalence of this tactic. Pay attention to what you’re seeing, hearing, and reading. Look for monolithic messaging or sudden upticks in certain kinds of content. The requirement is on you, the information consumer, to be aware of the content you’re seeing.

See Also:

• Israeli security forces responded to a mass shooter event on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem following weeks of raids and running gun battles within the Palestinian territories between Israeli commandos and Palestinian insurgents.

• China and Russia reaffirmed their “no limits” alliance, although China has yet to send arms to support the Russian war in Ukraine.

• Russia has announced it will be positioning nuclear weapons in Belarus.

• The US and the Philippines have signed an agreement to bring US troops back to the Philippine home islands for the first time in decades.

• Japan and Korea are both actively seeking to purchase US made arms and equipment, as well as further integrate with US forces in the region.

• Honduras revokes its recognition of Taiwan as an independent state after diplomatic meetings with the PRC.

The Americas

Chaos in the Borderlands  

Brodie Kirkpatrick

On Monday, a fire broke out in a migrant detention center in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. The incident left dozens of people dead and injured. It also highlights the migrant crisis on the US-Mexico border. In the days following the blaze, it seems that it may have been set intentionally. 

The Border Crisis

The situation on the US-Mexico border is chaotic. Scores of migrants have overwhelmed both the US and Mexican governments for years. In recent months, Ciudad Juarez has seen thousands of migrants who have been placed in multiple parts of the city. El Paso, across the border, has also seen a surge in migrants crossing both legally and illegally. For example, on December 11th, 2022, over 1,000 migrants illegally crossed the Rio Grande. The city is unable to handle the influx of migrants to its streets. Unfortunately, shelters are also overwhelmed leading some migrants to sleep on the ground outdoors. The same can be said about many cities along both sides of the border. 

In the fiscal year 2022, Customs and Border Protection recorded 2.4 million encounters with illegal immigrants. That is a record amount of encounters and does not take in account those immigrants that entered legally through ports of entry. 

As a large number of migrants try to claim asylum in the United States, many of them are forced to wait in Mexico while their claims are processed. This is done under Title 42 of the United States Code, a law that allows the government to deport or deny entry to foreign nationals that have traveled from a country where a communicable disease was present. Section 265 of Title 42 has been used throughout the COVID-19 pandemic to keep asylum seekers from entering the country before their cases are decided. This has led the law to be dubbed the “Remain in Mexico” policy by some pundits and media organizations.   

The Blaze

The incident took place at a migrant detention facility run by the National Institute of Migration (INM) in Ciudad Juarez. The facility was holding 68 male migrants looking to settle in the United States and is located mere meters from the Stanton International Bridge leading to El Paso, Texas. According to Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the fire was ignited by migrants who did so in protest of potential deportation from Mexico. The president said that the perpetrators lit their mattresses on fire and soon, the entire building would be engulfed in flames.

Security camera footage recovered from the facility shows two uniformed men flee the area as smoke and flames can be seen spreading in the background. Those men did not attempt to open the cell doors and release the detainees who were trapped inside. Alejandra Corona, a coordinator with the Jesuit Refugee Service in the city said that the facility is typically manned by an INM employee and a private security guard.

In total, 38 men are dead and another 29 were injured. Those men are from Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador. A majority of the deceased, 28, were from Guatemala. The identities of those affected are not fully clear as a list released by the Mexican government is vague and has some inconsistencies¹.      

The Right to Spy? 

Brodie Kirkpatrick

TikTok, the world's fastest growing social media platform, finds itself in the crosshairs of the United States government once again. Congress is looking at banning the app in the country over concerns that the app is used by the government of China to spy on its users. This comes after the Biden Administration ordered that the app be deleted off of all devices belonging to the federal government. That order followed similar moves by multiple state governments and the Canadian federal government. TikTok has over 100 million users in the United States 

Allegations

TikTok is owned by a large Chinese tech company called ByteDance. The main concern is that ByteDance may share user data with the Chinese government, particularly location data . Additionally, the company is accused of collecting more data than other social media companies such as Meta or Twitter. Particularly, there is a concern that TikTok can access data on a user’s cell phone on other applications.

TikTok executives have repeatedly denied these accusations. However, US Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco asserts that the Chinese Communist Party forces companies doing business in the country to share data with government authorities upon request.  

The social media app is also under investigation by the Justice Department for spying on American journalists. ByteDance announced in December that TikTok employees inappropriately gathered the data of two American reporters and “a few of their associates”.    

Is the Ban Coming?

Right now, it is too difficult to tell if a ban will pass Congress or not. This week, members of the House listened to six hours of testimony by TikTik CEO Shou Zi Chew in regards to data security and harmful content found on the app. Focal points of the questioning by representatives was how TikTok plans to police content and secure the data of American users from the Chinese government. 

On Wednesday, Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) tried to get unanimous consent on a vote to ban the app, but he was blocked by Senator Rand Paul (R-KY). Paul’s argument was that a ban would violate the Constitution and in his words, “Speech is protected whether you like it or not”. Senator Paul aside, there are split opinions on a ban in both chambers of Congress. It’s too early to tell if Congress will vote to ban TikTok or what a final bill would look like².

“The Dragon” in Honduras

Brodie Kirkpatrick 

This week, Honduras officially broke off diplomatic ties with Taiwan and established ties with China. This diplomatic shift leaves Taiwan with a small number of supporters among UN member-states. As China makes inroads into Latin America with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), we must “follow the money” to understand this decision by the Central American nation.   

New Friends

On March 14th, Honduran President Xiomara Castro announced that her country would sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of China. The decision was made official on March 26th when Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina traveled to Beijing and signed the agreement between the two countries.  

In a statement posted to its Twitter page, Honduras’ Foreign Ministry announced that there is “only one China” and that Beijing “is the only legitimate government that represents all of China”. It added that Honduras see’s Taiwan as “an inalienable part of Chinese territory”.  

The move will be followed by a visit of President Castro to Beijing, which will happen “soon”. 

Why It Matters

China and Taiwan both see themselves as the one true China of the world. This dispute goes back to the de facto end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949 when the Chinese Republicans (Kuomintang) lost to the Chinese Communist Party. The remaining leaders of the KMT fled to the island of Taiwan and established the Republic of China in its current form. The CCP established the People’s Republic of China and since that point the two have engaged in the dispute. Both countries claim each other's territory and claim to be the true governing authority over all of China. 

Initially, the United States was the ROC’s strongest supporter, refusing to recognize the legitimacy of the government of Mao Zedong in Beijing. However, in 1979, the US switched recognition from the ROC to the PRC. Many countries followed suit over the decades and as of March 26th, 2023, only 13 UN member-states recognize Taiwan as an independent country. 

As the fear grows that China may invade Taiwan to fulfill its “one China policy”, the ROC needs as many friends as it can get. While the US still maintains an unofficial relationship with Taiwan, it is at a disadvantage if most of the world’s nations do not see it as a sovereign state.    

Following the Money

Before announcing its decision to cut ties, Honduras asked Taiwan for a substantial increase in aid. Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said that Honduras asked for $2.45 billion to build a hospital and a dam. Honduras also asked for a write off of its debt to Taiwan, totalling $600 million. Reina confirmed the claim about his country’s debt and added that Honduras asked for a doubling of its $50 million annual aid from Taiwan. 

China has been making moves into Latin America through its Belt and Road Initiative, a strategy adopted by the PRC to invest in infrastructure projects worldwide. The country has used the prospect of BRI projects to extract concessions from countries around the globe. One major prerequisite to receiving aid from China is ditching Taiwan for the PRC. That rings especially true in the Americas, where most of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies reside. In the past decade, Taiwan lost Panama, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Nicaraga to China. All of those countries have since signed onto the BRI. Honduras’ prize is a hydroelectric dam that will be built in the center of the country with $300 million in financing from the Chinese government.    

This move by Honduras could see the United States cut annual aid to it by the way of the 2020 Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative Act. That act allows the State Department the ability to expand or reduce US aid given to countries contingent on whether they improve or worsen their relations with Taiwan. At this time, there is no indication as to whether the US will leverage that act against Honduras or not³. 

The Indictment of the Decade

Brodie Kirkpatrick

On Thursday, a grand jury in Manhattan voted to indict former president Donald Trump on charges relating to hush money payments to pornstar Stormy Daniels. The former president will face 34 counts in relation to the payments. This is the first time in US history that a president will face criminal charges.

Background

In 2006, Donald Trump had an alleged sexual encounter with a pornstar called Stormy Daniels (real name Stephanie Clifford). During Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, his then-lawyer Michael Cohen paid Daniels $130,000 to deny that she ever had an affair with Trump. Cohen originally said that he made the payment with his own funds and he was not reimbursed by the Trump Organization or Trump campaign. 

Contrary to previous statements, Cohen testified to a House panel in 2019 that Trump had reimbursed him for the “hush money” payments to Daniels. Those reimbursement payments were wrongly documented as legal fees to Cohen. 

In November 2022, The New York Times reported that the office of Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan District Attorney, was investigating Trump over the payments to Daniels. The report was confirmed by Bragg in January and his office began presenting evidence and witnesses to a grand jury that month. 

The Indictment

The indictment is currently sealed. This means that the 34 specific charges levied against Trump are unknown to the public. The charges are expected to revolve around the falsification of business records and possible campaign finance violations.  

Moving Forward

Trump is expected to turn himself into Bragg’s office on Tuesday with his Secret Service escort in tow. He will be fingerprinted, arraigned, and will appear in court to enter a plea. It is not likely that he will be held in custody. The pacing of his case is unclear at the moment.

The former president is currently running for a second term in the White House. Despite the indictment, he can still run for office. Trump has labeled the indictment “an attack on our country” and called it a “witch hunt”⁴.  

Looking Forward

-Brodie Kirkpatrick

The crisis on the US-Mexico border shows no signs of resolving and will likely continue to grow in scale. Tragic incidents such as the fire in Ciudad Juarez and migrant-related violence will likely continue as well. It is unclear as to whether or not TikTok will be banned in the US. However, the executive branch may continue to take other actions against the app where it can, legally speaking. Taiwan may lose more diplomatic partners in Latin America in the years to come. As China continues to make moves into the region, it will become a question of incentives for the countries that still recognize the ROC. We will be watching to see how the criminal case against President Trump plays out. It is too difficult to make solid predictions considering the uncharted territory that the US finds itself in regarding this situation.