Bulletin From The Borderlands

1 March 2024

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He is a graduate San Jose State University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the team lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Callisto Report: The Calisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

ALCON S2: A veteran of the New Zealand military intelligence community, if it walks, talks, or crawls in Asia, ALCON S2 knows about it. Cole is the preeminent source of OSINT for the Oceania and South East Asia region.

Jillian Butler: A lifelong writer and San Diego native. She received her bachelor’s degree in English and History at the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland. Upon moving back to San Diego, she received her master’s in International Relations at the University of San Diego where she centered her research around jihadi terror. She is also a contributing writer for Pop Smoke Media, American Grit, The Modern Insurgent, and Lethal Minds Journal’s Bulletin from the Borderlands. In her free time, she can be found surfing, training jiu jitsu, or improving her craft of cooking the perfect ribeye.

Sponsors

The Bulletin is brought you to by PB Abbate.

As you likely know, Lethal Minds Journal shares common ancestry with Patrol Base Abbate, one of the most impactful veteran’s outreach organizations in America. One of the ways in which we connect is through a love of the written word, a belief in the power of good writing to help give a voice to people who need to be heard, and a desire to help service members and vets connect through self-expression.

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) and Robert Acuña.

In a first for the city, San Francisco has appointed its first non-citizen to a high-profile government role. A recent law change in the city now allows non-citizens to hold some offices once reserved for only U.S. citizens. San Francisco joins a small, but growing number of U.S. localities that are allowing non-citizens to hold public office and/or vote in local elections. In Manhattan, a former President of Honduras is in federal court over drug trafficking allegations. This case highlights the corruption that has run rampant in the country and also fooled multiple administrations in Washington D.C.     

Europe : Meridian News

Europe has been busy, with Russian President Vladimir Putin delivering his state-of-the-nation address, in the lead-up to Russia's presidential election scheduled for March 15th. Putin's speech outlined ambitious plans for Russia's economy, education, healthcare, and how he plans to support young and impoverished families, but he also fired off pointed warnings regarding Western involvement in Ukraine. His remarks emphasized potential consequences of NATO intervention in the ongoing conflict, injecting more tension into the already complex war.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has been making significant strides in ramping up domestic weapons production, a move driven by the diminishing influx of Western aid. With a goal of reducing reliance on external sources, Ukraine has accelerated efforts to bolster its military capabilities through increased domestic manufacturing. Recent announcements indicate a substantial uptick in the production of domestically-made equipment, complemented by partnerships with international defense companies .

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by John M. Larrier (Defense Bulletin)

The Chinese Coast Guard has intensified patrols around Taiwan's Kinmen Island, indicating potential preparations for kinetic action against Taiwan, amidst broader military exercises. Taiwan's measured response reflects its stance on sovereignty despite China's refusal to recognize maritime boundaries. Chinese actions suggest a calculated strategy to maintain readiness for potential offensive operations against Taiwan, with grey zone actions likely to escalate, including encroachment into Taiwan's waters and cyberattacks. Additionally, increased military cooperation among North Korea, Russia, and China poses challenges to existing power structures, prompting heightened alertness and cooperation among U.S.-aligned nations in the region to deter potential threats while balancing deterrence and diplomacy.

Central Asia and the Mid East: John M. Larrier (Defense Bulletin)

The European Union’s Operation Aspides is underway. Details surrounding the recent engagement involving the German frigate Hessen have caused concern about the mission’s potential to deter the Houthis from continuing to threaten commercial and naval shipping in the Red Sea. 

Africa: Covered in this issue by the Expeditionary Intelligence Group, Jillian Butler

ISIS in Mozambique, formed in 2017, aims to overthrow the government, expel foreign influence, and establish an Islamic caliphate. They target civilians and security forces using various weapons and are involved in narcotics trafficking.

In Chad, recent violence erupted amid political tensions preceding the upcoming May and June elections, marking the nation's first democratic vote since a military transitional government took over three years ago. Clashes ensued after the announcement of the election date, with state forces alleging attacks by opposition militants.

The Highlight: Taiwan’s Kinmen Island Experiencing a significant Increase in Chinese Grey Zone Actions

Kinmen island, the closest Taiwanese territory to mainland China, has seen a significant increase in Chinese aggression since the February 14th incident involving Taiwan’s Coast Guard and a Chinese fishing vessel. We expand on these actions in the “East Asia and Oceania” section of this issue.  

Note from the Bulletin team:

Looking for the Strategic Forecast?

We've decided to implement a stand-alone long form Strategic Forecast that will be able to cover the multitude of conflicts and developments covered and the implications for the geopolitical sphere. Regional Weekly Wrap-ups also began this week as well. Check them out for key flashpoints and events in each region. 

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick

Non Citizen Appointed to San Francisco Elections Commission

On February 14^th 2024, the city of San Francisco, California swore in their first non-citizen as a government official. Wing Kwan “Kelly” Wong was sworn in to serve as a new member of the San Francisco Elections Commission.      

Who is Kelly Wong?

Wong is an immigrant who was born and raised in Hong Kong, China and is on a visa to work and reside in the United States. During some research, it appears that Wong’s LinkedIn was set to private. Although, some information found about Wong’s background states that Wong had come to the US in 2019 for graduate studies at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Wong is noted to have a career in activism for the Asian-American & Pacific Islander (AAPI) community of San Francisco. Most recently she was noted to work for a non-profit called, Chinese for Affirmative Action. Wong’s previous work in Hong Kong was within the realm of human rights. She had worked with groups such as UNHCR, International Organization for Migration, and the Fair Employment Agency. Wong claims that all of her work aims to promote immigrant rights, worker’s rights, and refugee rights. Wong stated that her appointment to the Elections Commission will have positive effects on the community as it will bring a voice to the large immigrant population within the city’s election process. 

The San Francisco Elections Commission

The position that Wong was appointed to was for the San Francisco Elections Commission. This commission is a part of the San Francisco City Council and consists of seven members. Each of these members are appointed by one of the following: the mayor, board of supervisors, city attorney, public defender, district attorney, treasurer, and the board of education. Specific requirements are varied from each appointee. The Elections Committee is responsible for creating written plans for how elections are to be conducted, analyzing previous election processes, creating policies derived from the analysis, and enforcing the general policies of the Elections Commission. 

The Legality of the Appointment 

The ability for a non-citizen to be appointed to advisory boards and commissions is a new phenomenon in San Francisco. In 2020, 54% of voters in San Francisco passed Proposition C. Proposition C allows for any regardless of citizenship status to be appointed for advisory boards and commissions for the city. These commissions and advisory boards have the authority to formulate budgets and pass public policy for the city. The passing of Proposition C does not guarantee an ease of passage to be appointed for either citizens or non citizens, although for better or for worse, it does create a larger pool of nominees to be chosen. 

Reactions to the Appointment

Wong’s appointment has faced a lot of backlash from many Republican politicians citing Wong’s Chinese citizenship amid ongoing global tension with the government of China. Many fear that this is just the beginning of mainstream political infiltration of the Chinese government into American politics. Republican Senator Eric Schmitt stated on Fox News that “These people view themselves as global citizens. They view our borders as arbitrary lines on the map”. Many supporters of her appointment claim that the backlash from many Republicans is rooted in xenophobia and prejudice towards Asians in which they have cited the Stop Asian Hate campaign existing for reasons such as this. 

Wong being a non citizen of the US prevents her from the ability to vote in any US election. This is an interesting fact as she will be responsible for creating written plans for how to properly conduct elections in a US city. She will also be the first non-citizen to hold public office in the U.S., setting a precedent in a time when immigration to the U.S., both legal and illegal, have become very pressing topics in the public eye. Growing global tensions with China will also pose a challenge to Wong’s appointment, with many unsure about an individual who is a Chinese citizen holding a public office with power to set policy for the electoral process of San Francisco¹.

President Hernández’s Fall From Grace

A former Central American president is on trial in the United States for the alleged smuggling of cocaine. His trial is exposing a relationship between Honduras’ chief executive and two notorious multinational criminal organizations that spans almost two decades. 

Hernández Brothers

Former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández (also known as JOH) is a career politician. A member of the right-wing National Party, he served in the National Congress from 1998 to 2014 and as President from 2014-2022. When he came into office in 2014, he fashioned himself as a tough-on-crime conservative. He pledged to use “iron fist” policies to combat drug trafficking and other types of crime that were running rampant in Honduras. This included prioritizing a counter-narcotics and security relationship with the United States, and deploying the military to Honduran streets. 

Hernández was allowed to seek reelection by the Supreme Court in 2017. Before that, Honduras’ constitution limited presidents to serving only one term. Hernández’s reflection was heavily  criticized as being fraudulent, causing widespread protests. Dozens of demonstrators were killed in those protests and over 800 others were arrested. Some of those that were arrested were taken to military bases and were tortured, according to the United Nations. 

During his time in office, Hernández was praised as an important U.S. ally in Latin America. He maintained good relationships with both the Obama and Trump Administrations. Under him, Honduras followed the lead of the U.S. on multiple foreign affairs matters including the recognition of Juan Guaido as the official President of Venezuela and the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, becoming one of the few countries that has done so.       

His brother, Juan Antonio “Tony” Hernández, a former congressman, is at the center of the president’s trial. While still serving as a congressman, Tony Hernández was arrested in Miami in November 2018 and charged with trafficking cocaine into the U.S., as well as weapons charges. He was convicted in a Manhattan federal court in 2019 of smuggling at least 185,000 kilograms of cocaine in the U.S. and selling weapons to drug traffickers. He was sentenced in 2021 to life in federal prison plus an additional 30 years. 

Allegations and Convictions 

President Hernández was arrested at his home in the country’s capital of Tegucigalpa in February 2022, three months after leaving office. He was extradited to the U.S. two months later. He is charged with one count of conspiring to import cocaine to the U.S. and two counts of carrying weapons in the furtherance of the cocaine importation conspiracy.   

Tony’s trial is the reason that President Hernández’s alleged crimes came into the public eye. During the trial, prosecutors claimed that Tony had informed drug traffickers about U.S. efforts to train Honduran security forces for night raids. That came as his brother promised to cooperate with American counter-narcotics efforts in order to receive foreign aid. They also say that he accepted a $1 million bribe on his brother’s behalf from Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, then-leader of the Sinaloa Cartel (CDS). He also used millions of dollars gained from drug trafficking and bribes to finance the campaigns of his brother and other members of the National Party. Throughout the trial, federal prosecutors routinely described the president’s knowledge of, and complicity in, his brother’s crimes.   

After his conviction, Tony Hernández was alleged to have ordered the assassinations of three people in Honduras. These allegations were detailed during his sentencing hearing in Manhattan in March 2021. First, Tony’s business partner Nery Lopez Sanabria was shot and stabbed to death in a maximum-security prison in Honduras just eight days after Tony’s conviction. The assassin was able to breach the area of the prison where Sanabria was held. It is believed that Sanabria was planning to cooperate with the DEA. Six weeks later, Sanabria’s lawyer was assassinated. Lastly, three days after the lawyer’s death, the warden of the maximum-security prison was killed as well. All of these assassinations happened while President Hernández was still in office.  

President Hernández’s trial began in late-February. The prosecution accused him of running the country like a “narco-state”. They claim that he allowed cocaine from Colombia and Venezuela to freely enter Honduras during his time in office. He is also accused of tipping off traffickers about upcoming raids and in some cases even ordering the military to protect them. Prosecutors say that  Hernández began accepting money from drug traffickers in 2004, when he was a congressman. 

The prosecution’s first witness was a former accountant, Jose Sanchez, who claims that President Hernández was paid each month by convicted trafficker Geovanny Fuentes. Another witness, a former leader of Honduran criminal organization Los Cachiros, claimed that he saw Hernández at the birthday party of then-President Pepe Lobo’s brother in 2012. Also at the party were members of the criminal elite in the country, according to the witness. After the party, Los Cachiros pledged to make a $250,000 contribution to Hernández’s first presidential campaign. 

Alexander Ardon, former mayor of El Paraíso and also a convicted trafficker, corroborated the claim that Tony Hernández received a $1 million bribe from “El Chapo” Guzman. A former member of the Sinaloa Cartel later claimed that CDS contributed a total of $2.4 million to Hernández’s campaigns. Ardon also says that in 2008, he was asked by both President Pepe Lobo and Hernández to contribute $2 million to various National Party campaigns as bribes, which he did. The witness says that none of his cocaine shipments were seized and he was protected from arrest while Hernández was president. This is despite Hernández being lauded as a valuable partner to the U.S. in the war on drugs.        

The trial is ongoing and is expected to last two to three weeks, but could go on longer².     

Looking Forward

Hernández's trial is a departure from longstanding U.S. policy to not charge the heads of foreign nations with crimes. The question is whether the case of  Hernández is an exception to that policy or if it signals a shift away from it. If convicted,  Hernández could face anywhere from a mandatory minimum of 40 years to life in a federal prison. His trial also highlights corruption that plagues Honduras and many other places in Latin America as well. Testimony in the trial implicates two other presidents and possibly a third. Former President Jose Manuel Zelaya is also accused of receiving bribes from traffickers, in addition to Hernández' and Lobo. Zelaya is also the husband of Honduras’ current president, Xiomara Castro. The trial also brings to mind Genaro Garcia Luna, a former Mexican presidential cabinet security official that was recently convicted in a New York federal court for working with El Chapo’s cartel.