Bulletin From The Borderlands

15 April 2024

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He is a graduate San Jose State University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the team lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Callisto Report: The Calisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

Robert “Bobby” Acuña is a graduate of Texas A&M University – Corpus Christi with both a BBA in Economics and a BA in Political Science. He was originally born in Subic Bay, Philippines but lived much of his life in Corpus Christi, Texas. He currently resides in Houston, Texas. Growing up in a military family, Robert developed a passion for politics as well as studying war history. Some of his earliest memories were watching World War II documentaries with his grandfather. This led him to his educational path in university. One of his favorite aspects of his collegiate career was political research. His most recent work was with The Modern Insurgent. He believes Bulletin On The Borderlands will help to fulfill that urge to understand and stay consistently aware of the geopolitical issues around the world. Outside of his interest in global affairs, Robert is an avid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioner and rugby player.

ALCON S2: A veteran of the New Zealand military intelligence community, if it walks, talks, or crawls in Asia, ALCON S2 knows about it. Cole is the preeminent source of OSINT for the Oceania and South East Asia region.

Jillian Butler: A lifelong writer and San Diego native. She received her bachelor’s degree in English and History at the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland. Upon moving back to San Diego, she received her master’s in International Relations at the University of San Diego where she centered her research around jihadi terror. She is also a contributing writer for Pop Smoke Media, American Grit, The Modern Insurgent, and Lethal Minds Journal’s Bulletin from the Borderlands. In her free time, she can be found surfing, training jiu jitsu, or improving her craft of cooking the perfect ribeye.

Sponsors

The Bulletin is brought you to by PB Abbate.

As you likely know, Lethal Minds Journal shares common ancestry with Patrol Base Abbate, one of the most impactful veteran’s outreach organizations in America. One of the ways in which we connect is through a love of the written word, a belief in the power of good writing to help give a voice to people who need to be heard, and a desire to help service members and vets connect through self-expression.

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate), Bobby Acuna

After weeks of uncertainty, Haiti may soon be ushering in a new era. A new transitional governing body has been announced via executive order. It remains to be seen when the body will be sworn in and if they will have a positive impact on Haiti. Moving to the west, tensions are high between Ecuador and Mexico after the latter’s sovereignty was violated by the former. The situation has left many questioning the continued viability of diplomatic norms.

A man who claims to be a bomb maker with ties to Hezbollah was stopped at the Southern border in March. 

Europe : Meridian News

Europe is busy as ever, starting with an update on the war in Ukraine with revelations of China's significant support to Russia's military efforts in Ukraine, being publicly disclosed by senior U.S. officials. Russian President Vladimir Putin's mockery of scheduled peace talks in Switzerland, and the dangers of warmer weather on Ukraine’s already strained Eastern front. Plus, the fallout of a massive medical marijuana ponzi scheme thwarted by Spanish law enforcement and Europol. The company enticed 180,000 individuals with promises of annual returns up to 168%, relying on new investors to sustain payouts

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by John M. Larrier (Defense Bulletin)

Tensions escalate in the South China Sea as China clashes with the Philippines over the Second Thomas Shoal. A joint U.S.-Filipino exercise, "Balikatan," underscores military cooperation, but China's readiness for escalation, shown through rhetoric and exercises, poses a significant risk, potentially altering U.S. involvement decisions.

The Japanese Prime Minister visits the U.S. in a historic diplomatic mission. 

Central Asia and the Middle East: John M. Larrier (Defense Bulletin), Expeditionary Intelligence

Iran has responded to the Israeli strike that killed a key IRGC commander. We cover both the strikes and the expected Israeli response. 

Africa: Covered in this issue by Jillian Butler

Niger requested US forces to leave, leading to Russia's Africa Corps arrival. Niger severed ties citing illegal presence and biased agreements, challenging US strategic interests in the Sahel. Amid allegations of secret deals with Iran and growing ties with Russia and China, the US faces a dilemma: withdrawal risks ceding influence to Russia's Wagner Group, known for abuses, while staying risks escalation in an already volatile region.

The Highlight: Night of Iranian Strikes/Israel’s Potential Response

In our Middle East and Central-Asia section, an analysis of Iran’s strikes on Israel two nights ago and a quick rundown plus assessment of potential actions that Israel could take to respond to Iran. 

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick, Bobby Acũna

A New Era Over the Horizon for Haiti

The current chapter in the Haitian crisis has continued. Since late-February, the country has been under attack by a coordinated campaign from multiple gangs. Prime Minister Ariel Henry gave into the primary demand from the gangs, but the situation moving forward remains unclear. 

Continued Offensive

Haiti’s police force of 9,000 officers has already struggled to beat back gangs since the criminal offensive began in late-February. Prior to the offensive, gangs controlled about 80% of the capital city Port-au-Prince and they likely control more of the city now. At least 38 people have been killed since the offensive began, including multiple police officers and civilians. Although, the true death toll is likely much higher.

Gangs have shut down the main international airport and seaport in Port-au-Prince for over a month. Transport ships leaving the seaport, the port of Varreux, have been attacked as well; such as the “Magaile”, which was hijacked and looted for food cargo. Raids of Haiti’s two largest prisons have led to the escape of 4,000 inmates, including those accused of assassinating President Jovenel Moise in 2021.

According to the International Organization for Migration, nearly 95,000 people have already fled the capital in the past month and a half. In the last three years since Moise’s killing, over 360,000 people have fled their homes across Haiti. Over 160,000 people in the capital city are living in displacement camps.

In March, Henry gave into the gang’s main demand, that he resign. His resignation will take effect once a new prime minister is named. Henry has been unable to return to Haiti after a trip to Kenya in late-February. The goal of that trip was to authorize the deploying of the Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission. Gangs took advantage of Henry being absent to launch their campaign. The security issues caused by that campaign forced Henry to remain in Puerto Rico, unable to return to Haiti. 

Presidential Council

After weeks of uncertainty, a Presidential Transitional Council was formed by an executive order on Friday. After PM Henry announced his resignation, it was decided that his authority would be transferred to a transitional council that would oversee Haiti until new elections are held. The factions that will make up the council, political factions, the private sector, civil society, and the inter-faith community, initially disagreed on who will have a seat on the council. The composition of the new council was negotiated with the economic and political bloc CARICOM, or Caribbean Community. 

It remains to be seen when the Presidential Transitional Council will be sworn into power. The council is seeking to be sworn in at the president’s residence, the National Palace. However, it isn’t clear if that can be facilitated as the palace has been a major target of gangs in recent weeks and seen much fighting. Once the council is sworn in, it will rule for two years alongside a new prime minister until elections are held in February 2026. After coming into power, seven of the nine councilors with voting rights will choose the new prime minister to replace Henry. It is too early to tell who may be Henry’s successor. The pool will be limited to 15 applicants and each applicant must be Haitian born, pledge to live in Haiti during their time in office, have a good knowledge of public administration, and have “mastered the art of negotiation”. 

The first order of business for the governing body should be to address the security situation in Haiti, as well as safe access of food, water, and medicine for the people. Many Haitians have had difficulty accessing all three of those essentials for years. Malnourishment and disease are common in the country. The UN’s World Food Programme warns that Haiti could start to run out of food at the end of this month. Additionally, Haiti’s main clean water supplier paused shipments at the outbreak of the gang offensive. The council has also given itself a number of powers, including the ability to fire a prime minister and appoint members of government agencies, including the new national-security commission.    

International Deployment

In theory, the swearing in of the council should also provide an opportunity for the Kenyan-led multinational peacekeeping force to deploy to Haiti. Last month, Kenyan President William Ruto said that the forces from his nation would not deploy until a constitutional authority was established. Once that authority is established, further delays in the deployment from the Kenyan side would be difficult to justify, especially considering the force has received a plethora of funding from the Biden Administration.

Members of the transitional council had to commit to allow the deployment of the MSS as a condition of receiving a council seat. However, it isn’t yet clear if the force will be allowed to deploy to Haiti as some members have signaled that they may not support the mission. Additionally, there is no mention of the MSS in the new “Political Agreement for a Peaceful and Orderly Transition”, which will guide the council’s first steps. Some council members have discussed defining the “conditions for effective support to Haitian security forces, respecting national sovereignty”. It isn’t clear what exactly that means. Regardless, last week the Biden Administration ordered the transfer of an additional $60 million for training and weapons for the Kenyan-led force¹.  

The Mexican Standoff in Quito

Tensions between Ecuador and Mexico are high after the former violated the latter’s sovereignty. Mexico’s willingness to grant asylum to disgraced Latin American leaders has led to a diplomatic showdown between the two countries. Ecuador’s storming of the Mexican embassy has regional observers wondering if a precedent was just set. 

Vice President Glas

Jorge Glas served as Vice President of Ecuador from 2013-2017. A close friend of former president Rafael Correa, he served in multiple positions in the president’s administration. Before his victory on the reelection ticket of Correa, he served as the president of the National Telecommunications Council, Minister of Telecommunications and Information Society, and Coordinating Minister of Strategic Sectors.

While vice president, Glas was implicated in the massive Brazilian federal anti-corruption investigation, Operation Car Wash. That operation implicated a number of politicians and officials in Brazil and elsewhere in Latin America. For context, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was also implicated in the investigation during his first stint in office. Jorge Glas is among a number of politicians outside of Brazil that were bribed by Odebrecht S.A., the Brazilian conglomerate at the center of Car Wash. In 2017, Glas was convicted of receiving $13.5 million in bribes from the company. Odebrecht executives say that they spent $33.5 million in bribes on Ecuadorian politicians around this time. 

For his corruption conviction, Glas was sentenced to six years in prison. Three months prior in August, he was suspended from his duties by Correa’s successor, President Lenin Moreno. He was officially stripped from power in January after being unable to exercise office for 90 days under Article 146 of the Ecuadorian Constitution. In 2020, he was sentenced to an additional eight years in prison and loss of political rights for 25 years for aggravated bribery along with his friend and former boss Correa. Lastly, in 2021, the Superior Court of Ecuador sentenced him to another eight for misuse of public funds. 

After a brief stint out of prison in April 2022, he was ordered back into custody. He was released from prison a second time in November 2022. As a condition of his release Glas was not allowed to leave Ecuador. In December 2023, after facing another investigation related to public funds, Glas fled to the Mexican embassy in Quito and asked for political asylum. 

Mexico has offered safe haven to a number of current and former government officials across Latin America, including several former officials from the Correa government and former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo. Up until this month, Mexico saw Glas as a “guest” in their embassy without granting him official asylum status

Heightened Tensions

At the beginning of the month, Mexico President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) granted asylum status to Glas. With that designation, Mexico requested that Glas receive safe passage out of the country. Ecuador refused, saying that the asylum status given to Glas was illegal due to his two criminal convictions.   

On the night of April 5th, Ecuadorian police officers from a specialized unit forced their way into the Mexican embassy in Quito and arrested former VP Glas, all while pointing weapons at the Mexican diplomat in charge of the embassy. The storming of the embassy was ordered by President Daniel Noboa. Noboa used the current internal state of conflict to justify the police action on sovereign Mexican territory. AMLO decried the raid as a violation of international law and Mexican sovereignty. Diplomatic relations between the two countries were cut almost immediately. Mexico has also called for the United Nations to suspend Ecuador. In a show of solidarity, Nicaragua also cut ties with Ecuador. 

Last week, an Ecuadorian court found that Glas was arbitrarily detained and that his rights were violated. Despite this finding, Glas has been ordered to remain in prison due to his previous sentences. Since his arrest, former President Correa said that Glas has attempted suicide in prison and is on a hunger strike. Glas has also claimed that officers have beat him, while law enforcement says that they used force against Glas “progressively”².

Looking Forward

Despite the announcement of the new transitional council, Haitians are still living with terror every day. PM Henry giving into the demands of criminals has not made the situation any better. Judging what the situation moving forward will look like is difficult. It depends on many things, including the timeline for ushering the council into power and how well the council ends up functioning. Tensions between Ecuador and Mexico are unlikely to die down anytime soon. Instead of apologizing, Ecuador has doubled down on its justification of the raid. Many Latin Americans nations have condemned President Noboa’s actions, however Nicaragua is the only country that has followed suit and severed relations with Ecuador. It is possible that the violation of Mexican sovereignty set a future precedent if Ecuador faces little consequences.