Bulletin From The Borderlands

1 February 2024

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He is a graduate San Jose State University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the team lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Callisto Report: The Calisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

ALCON S2: A veteran of the New Zealand military intelligence community, if it walks, talks, or crawls in Asia, ALCON S2 knows about it. Cole is the preeminent source of OSINT for the Oceania and South East Asia region.

Jillian Butler: A lifelong writer and San Diego native. She received her bachelor’s degree in English and History at the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland. Upon moving back to San Diego, she received her master’s in International Relations at the University of San Diego where she centered her research around jihadi terror. She is also a contributing writer for Pop Smoke Media, American Grit, The Modern Insurgent, and Lethal Minds Journal’s Bulletin from the Borderlands. In her free time, she can be found surfing, training jiu jitsu, or improving her craft of cooking the perfect ribeye.

Sponsors

The Bulletin is brought you to by PB Abbate.

As you likely know, Lethal Minds Journal shares common ancestry with Patrol Base Abbate, one of the most impactful veteran’s outreach organizations in America. One of the ways in which we connect is through a love of the written word, a belief in the power of good writing to help give a voice to people who need to be heard, and a desire to help service members and vets connect through self-expression.

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate).

Next week, Salvadorans will decide whether or not to keep President Nayib Bukele in power. The country has changed much since he came to power and the election will indicate what direction El Salvador will move in for the next five years. Moving eastward, Haiti is still plagued by violent crime and street gangs. As the country pleads for help from a multinational peacekeeping force, a court in Kenya has delayed that mission. The country’s president is trying to skirt around the court’s ruling to send a force of 1,000 police officers that will lead the peacekeepers. 

Europe : Covered in this issue by John M. larrier (Defense Bulletin) and Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate)

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine is about to enter into its third year, there are no signs that the war will end anytime soon. While Ukrainian forces have been able to defend against Russian offensives, the former’s summer counter-offensive failed. The Ukrainian government under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is adamant that it will reclaim all of its internationally-recognized territory. Ukraine does face a major issue though: If it wants to keep fighting, it needs to mobilize.

The Ukrainian long-range strike campaign against Russian naval assets in the Black Sea has proven to be successful, disrupting Russian naval operations and highlighting Ukraine's growing capabilities in long-range precision strikes and usage of unmanned . Notably, the sinking of a Russian vessel with unmanned surface vessels (USVs) showcased the effectiveness of these systems in neutralizing threats. In contrast to stagnant ground campaigns, the long-range strikes have been more successful, boosting Ukrainian morale, garnering international support, and weakening Russia's Black Sea presence. Despite dependence on Western aid, Ukraine's success may face challenges if this aid decreases significantly. To sustain achievements, Ukraine must enhance domestic defense production, reduce reliance on external support, and prioritize mobilization for personnel to operate advanced systems, strengthening long-term defense capabilities against Russian aggression.

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by John M. Larrier (Defense Bulletin)

In the recent Taiwanese presidential election, where the DPP candidate Lai Ching-te won, China's response has been surprisingly restrained compared to historical instances. This moderation is attributed to various factors, including the recent improvement in China-US relations, the potential economic impact of a more aggressive stance on its essential trading partner Taiwan, and the desire to avoid alienating the Taiwanese population. Maintaining a more restrained approach may also be part of China's broader strategic approach to prevent further complicating its goal of reunification. In contrast, China has expressed concern and criticism in response to NATO's rhetoric and the Steadfast Defender exercise involving 90,000 forces. Despite its aggressive rhetoric, China maintains that it is not an adversary of NATO, and it remains to be seen if their reaction will escalate to concrete actions against the alliance.

Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by Eric Sheppler and Expeditionary Intelligence Group

An attack on U.S. forces in Jordan has killed three American servicemen and wounded over 40 others. The attack took place at the Tower 22 base complex in NE Jordan, close to the Syrian and Iraqi borders, on Sunday, Jan 28th. An Iranian manufactured one-way attack drone struck the base’s living quarters killing three members of the 926th Engineer Brigade, a U.S. Army reserve unit from the state of Georgia.

Africa: Covered in this issue by the Expeditionary Intelligence Group, Jillian Butler

In recent months, the Sahel region of Africa has experienced a significant geopolitical shift with the establishment of the Russia Corps, an initiative that seems to be gaining prominence following reported leadership changes within the infamous Wagner Group. As we delve into this development, it is crucial to comprehensively understand the potential advantages for Russia and the broader implications for the Western world.

The Sahel region of Africa is currently facing a power vacuum and chaos due to military juntas, UN and French withdrawal. Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso have left ECOWAS, citing foreign influence and failure to address the jihadi terror problem. Mali and Burkina Faso are grappling with rebel groups, with Mali's rebels rejecting a peace deal, and Burkina Faso accused of war crimes for drone strikes that killed over 60 civilians. Tensions between herders and farmers in Nigeria have escalated, resulting in attacks and displacement. The UN Secretary-General labels Africa as the "global epicenter of terrorism," with over 1,800 terror attacks in the Sahel region in 2023. Countries have enlisted the Wagner Group to combat the threat, but their brutality serves as a recruitment tool for terrorists. Antony Blinken proposes an American partnership to stabilize the region during his recent tour of Africa.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: Hard Decisions for Ukraine

Ukraine faces a critical need to mobilize additional men for its war against Russia, as its counter-offensive failed and the conflict shows no signs of ending soon. Mobilization is necessary to replace casualties, rotate units, and maintain a younger force. However, Ukraine is reluctant to mobilize due to its demographic crisis and the reluctance to sacrifice its small population of young men.

Strategic Forecast: John M. Larrier (Defense Bulletin) 

Spotlight on Europe

As the war between Ukraine and Russia enters its third year, Ukraine faces substantial challenges in its defense strategy. The necessity for Ukraine to mobilize additional men for the war has been a main topic of conversation for months, and the country is currently in the process of establishing a new mobilization framework. However, Ukraine may also experience a demographic crisis in the near future, with a low birth rate and an aging population.

Despite these challenges, the Ukrainian long-range strike campaign against Russian naval assets in the Black Sea has seen many successes. The campaign has showcased Ukraine's ability to carry out long-range precision strikes and its ability to use Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) to challenge Russian naval supremacy in the Black Sea.

In contrast to the relatively stagnant ground campaigns, Ukraine’s strike campaign has proven to be considerably more successful. While ground forces struggle to make substantial territorial gains, these strikes have effectively targeted Russian naval assets, weakening their presence in the Black Sea.

To ensure long-term success in its defense strategy, Ukraine must also focus on enhancing its domestic defense production and increasing mobilization efforts. This will enable the country to gradually reduce its reliance on Western aid and bolster its long-term defense capabilities.

The potential replacement of General Zaluzhnyi by Ukraine's president could lead to a shift in the country's military strategy and approach to the ongoing conflict. His potential replacement, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, would need to maintain the momentum of his efforts and ensure that Ukraine's defense capabilities continue to improve.

A replacement could also impact the morale of the Ukrainian troops and the public's perception of the government's decisions. The potential replacement of a popular and independent-minded military leader like Zaluzhnyi could create uncertainty and raise questions about the rationale behind such a decision.

If Ukraine is able to successfully implement an increased mobilization framework, it would significantly increase Ukraines capability to defend against continued Russian offensives and could potentiate a future offensive force posture. This, in turn, could bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities and improve the public's perception of the government's efforts to protect its citizens. While this would be unpopular at first, if said mobilization efforts are able to induce success on the battlefield, an understanding could be gained by the populace on the importance of increased mobilization. However, if the mobilization is not handled properly or leads to excessive strain on the population, it could negatively impact President Zelensky's popularity.

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick

Bukele on the Ballot      

On February 4th, Salvadorans will head to the polls to vote for the offices of president and vice president, and all 60 seats in the Legislative Assembly. The popular President of El Salvador Nayib Bukele is running for re-election and by all accounts will dominate at the ballot box. Under Bukele, El Salvador has changed drastically. This election will show the world what Salvadorans value more, their republic or their safety.   

Presidential Candidates

Six candidates are currently running to secure the next presidential term. We will focus on the three leading candidates according to polling. Bukele’s opposing candidates come from the FMLN and ARENA, the two traditionally dominant parties in El Salvador.

The 42-year-old Bukele is running on the ticket of Nuevas Ideas (NI), the party that he founded in 2017 by splitting from the FMLN. NI is a populist party that has been described neither exclusively right or left; also called “big tent”. Under Bukele, crime, which was a major issue in the nation, has fallen drastically. His approach to fighting street gangs and other violent criminals has earned him broad support across El Salvador that transcends social class. However, that approach has also drawn criticism as many adult males have been incarcerated for alleged gang ties. The Carnegie Endowment claims that as many as one in every six Salvadorans currently incarcerated are innocent. The absence of due process for many inmates has left some Salvadorans wondering how far Bukele would go to fight crime if it meant ruining the lives of some innocent young men. That issue, along with the fact that nearly half of the country is experiencing food insecurity amid rising prices, are two of Bukele’s vulnerabilities.

Former deputy Manuel Flores is running on the ticket of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN). The party is well known for fighting against the government in El Salvador’s brutal civil war from 1979-1992. That civil war was the main catalyst for the widespread violent crime that plagued the country for decades. The FMLN is a left-wing populist party that has historically been viewed as Marxist-Leninist. Corruption scandals between 2014 and 2019 heavily damaged the party’s reputation. During that time, the FMLN lost over one million votes. However, Flores was never implicated in any of those scandals and the party has a cadre of hardcore supporters that will work to bring as many of those votes back to the FMLN as they can. Much of the party’s loyal members come from areas that supported the FMLN in the civil war.    

Lastly, businessman Joel Sanchez is running on the ticket of Alianza Republicana Nacionalista (ARENA). ARENA is a right-wing nationalist party that was founded in the midst of the civil war in opposition to the FMLN. Sanchez is a newcomer to the political scene. Considering the widespread support for Bukele, a Sanchez victory is highly unlikely. However, as a man who lived in the United States for a time and advocated for Salvadoran migrants, he may be able to win over Salvadorans abroad. ARENA’s support base is mainly focused around the capital, San Salvador, among those that work in the private sector or own small businesses.    

A Likely Bukele Win

El Salvador’s constitution states multiple times that a president may only serve one term in office. That is obviously an issue for a president that wants to seek re-election. Bukele went to great lengths to rectify that issue. In 2021, after Nuevas Ideas used its majority in the Legislative Assembly to place new judges on the Supreme Court of Justice, the court ruled that Bukele could run for immediate reelection. This overturned a 2014 ruling that stated presidents had to wait ten years before running for a second term. The only stipulation that the court placed on Bukele was that he would have to voluntarily step away from the presidency six months prior to the inauguration in 2024. With that obstacle cleared, Bukele was nominated as NI’s candidate, which was accepted by the Supreme Electoral Court. Bukele was granted a leave of absence by the Legislative Assembly on December 1st and stepped away from the presidency. The acting president of El Salvador is Claudia Rodríguez de Guevara, the Director of Municipal Works.

President Bukele is expected to win the election next week without having to go to a run-off. Recent polls show him with an overwhelming lead over his competitors. A CEC-UFG poll published last month has Bukele at 90%, with Flores at 4% and Sanchez at 3%. His approach to lowering crime rates is the main reason that Bukele is so popular. El Salvador used to be one of the most dangerous countries in the world. In 2015, the homicide rate was 106.3 per 100,000 people. In 2019, when Bukele took power, that rate was 38 per 100,000 and last year, there were 2.4 homicides per 100,000. That represents a massive drop in violent crime that has been noticed not only in El Salvador, but around the world as well. 

If someone told me a couple of years ago that, in the context of homicides rates, El Salvador in 2024 would be the second safest country across the Americas, just behind Canada, I would laugh at them. However, that’s the reality in the country.

Many Bukele skeptics claim that “democracy is on the ballot” in El Salvador on February 4th. Despite the overuse of that statement in our society lately, it may not be wrong in this case. The real question is whether or not that matters to the voters. Before Bukele, El Salvador’s republic was fully intact, but the nation itself was overrun by major gangs such as MS-13 and 18th Street. The people could exercise their voices through the ballot box, but at the same time how many were able to go for a walk at night without the fear of getting gunned down or otherwise assaulted? The change that the country has gone through in recent years is visible, but democratic backsliding has clearly occurred as well. Bukele’s main competitors represent the two establishment parties in the country. Under those parties, crime continued to spiral out of control for decades. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to assume that an electoral victory for either of those parties would be accompanied by a rise in violent crime further down the line. Sunday’s election will show us what Salvadorans value the most¹.

Kenya to the Rescue?

The long anticipated multinational intervention to clean up the gang problem in Haiti has hit a snag in recent weeks. A recent court decision declared that Kenya’s plan to deploy a police force as part of the new UN mission to Haiti was unconstitutional. As Kenya is supposed to lead the multinational force, their failure to deploy troops might put the entire mission in jeopardy. 

Kenya’s Contribution

Kenya is set to lead a multinational peacekeeping force at the request of the Haitian government. The country’s plan has been approved by the United Nations and the Kenyan parliament. While Kenya will provide the bulk of personnel for the mission, funding will come from the UN. Most of those funds, $200 million USD, have been provided by the United States.

The original request came in 2022 from acting Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who had no preference as to whether or not an international force was facilitated by the UN. Multiple nations agreed that such a force should be deployed; but no country offered to supply troops until Kenyan President William Ruto announced that his nation would answer the call last July.  

The Kenyan contingent will consist of roughly 1,000 police officers. If all goes according to plan, they will be joined by law enforcement personnel from Jamaica, Belize, Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda, Chad, Senegal, and Burundi. 

Status of the Deployment 

On January 26th, the Nairobi High Court declared that any deployment of Kenyan police forces to a foreign nation would be unconstitutional, unless there was a “reciprocal agreement” with the host government. This was the court’s third ruling against the deployment plan since October. 

Despite the High Court ruling, on January 30th, President Ruto announced that his government will continue to prepare for the deployment to Haiti as planned. Ruto said that his government planned to appeal the court ruling. Additionally, he said that he expects to soon see an official request come from Haiti, which will allow his government to secure the necessary paperwork to comply with the ruling. The president claims that he is not violating the court ruling by continuing the plan for the deployment. He says the ruling is being misinterpreted and that the court gave his government another option by securing the necessary documents to comply with Article 108 of the National Police Service Act of 2011. Ruto stated that a deployment could come this week².  

Looking Forward

Bukele’s likely re-election will serve as an argument for those who support Caesarism. Political scientists around the world have used this case study to examine how effective and important democracy is in a society if it doesn’t deliver the safety of the general populace. His tactics may also inspire other leaders in Latin America, as we now see in Ecuador as that country is in the midst of its own war on gangs. For Haiti, the country is in a dire state. The deployment of an outside force may be necessary to restore order, or something that resembles it by Haitian standards. At the same time, the results of peacekeeping deployments to Haiti have historically been disastrous at worst and bad at best. Observers are looking to Kenya to see if they can change that reality. But first, their deployment needs to begin.