Bulletin From The Borderlands

15 December 2023

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He is a graduate San Jose State University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the team lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

Sino Talk : Sino Talk is China watcher with extensive experience living and studying in China. In another life, he was a Marine intelligence analyst. 

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Callisto Report: The Calisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

ALCON S2: A veteran of the New Zealand military intelligence community, if it walks, talks, or crawls in Asia, ALCON S2 knows about it. Cole is the preeminent source of OSINT for the Oceania and South East Asia region.

Jillian Butler: A lifelong writer and San Diego native. She received her bachelor’s degree in English and History at the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland. Upon moving back to San Diego, she received her master’s in International Relations at the University of San Diego where she centered her research around jihadi terror. She is also a contributing writer for Pop Smoke Media, American Grit, The Modern Insurgent, and Lethal Minds Journal’s Bulletin from the Borderlands. In her free time, she can be found surfing, training jiu jitsu, or improving her craft of cooking the perfect ribeye.

Sponsors

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As you likely know, Lethal Minds Journal shares common ancestry with Patrol Base Abbate, one of the most impactful veteran’s outreach organizations in America. One of the ways in which we connect is through a love of the written word, a belief in the power of good writing to help give a voice to people who need to be heard, and a desire to help service members and vets connect through self-expression.

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate). 

Little change on the political level has been observed for Peru. The executive and the legislature still disagree on how to tackle a major demand of the pro-Castillo protest movement. However, the increasingly precarious situation has led to economic effects that are starting to hit everyday Peruvians; especially those that rely on the country’s cherished tourism industry. The situation may also soon affect the global supply chain as Peru is very rich in precious metals. At the other end of the hemisphere, foreign spy balloons and unidentified flying objects have warranted the highest concentration of air defense missions since the aftermath of the September 11th attacks. The people of the United States and Canada are still left with many questions as defense officials continue recovery effects in order to capture and analyze key components of the downed aerial objects. 

Europe : Covered in this issue by Meridian News, Callisto Reports, and Defense Bulletin

As the Russo-Ukrainian War enters its second year, there is a growing call for a strategic pivot, emphasizing Ukraine's expanding domestic defense industry and urging European nations to assume greater responsibility for their defense. Recent developments, including Ukrainian officials' meetings at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Germany's partial funding of the Bundeswehr expansion, underscore the urgency of reassessing the geopolitical landscape.

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by Sino Talk

The Taiwanese Air Force is conducting evaluations of an air-launched variant of the Hsing Feng III Anti-Ship Cruise Missile (ASCM) on Indigenous Defense Fighters. Recent polls show that the Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate, Hou Yu-ih, made significant gains (29.54%) and narrowed the lead held by Taiwan Progressive Party (TPP) candidate William Lai (34.01%) to within four points. A CCTV broadcast showed a People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) soldier using a HoloLens 2 headset as a part of a mixed-reality maintenance system for daily use. People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Lt. General He Lei signaled that China will also attempt to capture the Senkakus if it invades Taiwan during a recent interview with a Japanese news agency. The real-time sharing of North Korean missile data with Japan, South Korea, and the United States will begin by the end of December. 

The Philippines is considering purchasing multi-purpose amphibious aircraft to conduct resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal (STS) to reduce travel time. Two People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels, including one Jiangdao-class/Type 056A corvette docked at the Ream Naval Base for joint exercise with the Royal Cambodian Navy. Vietnam and China increased relations by signing 36 agreements, ranging from defense, maritime cooperation, and telecommunications. One Ethnic Armed Organization and the Myanmar government agreed to a ceasefire until December 30th along the China-Myanmar border. India is examining the possibility of setting up a non-lapsable modernization fund to allow for uninterrupted funding for defense programs and upgrades. Australia signed the contract to buy 129 Redback infantry fighting vehicles for the Australian Defense Force and be delivered by 2028.

Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by Eric Sheppler

The Gaza conflict continues to grind on with all the regional implications and risks of escalation that are concerning to global players. Support for Israel’s efforts may be beginning to wane among the Western powers, including the United States, due to continued allegations/evidence of the indiscriminate use of firepower, and disregard for civilian casualties and humanitarian needs.

         The spillover from the conflict has been significant with multiple attacks on U.S. assets in Iraq and Syria by Iranian proxy forces and other militants. These attacks, in apparent retaliation for support of Israel, have so far not resulted in significant casualties or damage, but they continue to pose a serious threat to stability.

The Houthi rebels in Yemen are continuing to threaten a key global shipping lane with multiple attacks on merchant traffic. U.S. and other naval forces in the area have mitigated this threat so far, but it is likely that this area of the ME will see significant military activity soon if these actions continue. 

Africa: Covered in this issue by the Expeditionary Intelligence Group, Unbiased Conflicts, and Jillian Butler

The United Nations plans to fully withdraw from Mali by December 31st after a decade-long, costly, and fatal peacekeeping mission. Despite over 300 fatalities and a $1.2 billion budget, MINUSMA has been deemed unsuccessful, leading to the Malian government's request for the UN to leave. In the absence of UN presence, the Kremlin-linked Wagner group has reportedly entered Mali, with allegations of war crimes, including systemic sexual abuse. However, Islamic extremism, particularly from groups like JNIM and ISIS, continues to plague the region. Meanwhile, in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), escalating violence ahead of the presidential election is fueled by clashes over natural resources, political violence, and historical tensions between the DRC and Rwanda. The resurgence of the M23 rebel group in Eastern DRC has further complicated the situation, with accusations of funding from both sides. The DRC, home to over 120 armed militant groups, faces a critical humanitarian crisis with 6.9 million internally displaced people.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: European Independent Defense Frameworks 

The Russo-Ukrainian War's second year sparks a call for strategic changes, focusing on Ukraine's defense industry and urging European self-reliance. Recent events, including Ukrainian officials at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Germany's underfunded Bundeswehr expansion, highlight the need to reassess geopolitics. While Ukraine aims for defense autonomy, European nations, especially Germany, face criticism for insufficient NATO commitments. The prolonged war and Europe's reluctance to adopt autonomous defense raise security questions, emphasizing the necessity for diplomatic solutions and a comprehensive approach to regional stability.

See Also:

• The UN has set a timeline for its withdrawal from Mali while Islamic extremism spreads in the region.

• Taiwan looks for increased logistics capabilities, China continues its aggression around the Second Thomas Shoal, and a bombing in Marawi, Philippines.

• U.S. officials pressure Israel as the Houthis expand their operations against shipping in the Bab El Mandeb Strait. 

• Economic hardship hits Peru as questions still abound surrounding the spy balloon incursions in the United States. 

Strategic Forecast: John M. Larrier - Defense Bulletin 

The global geopolitical landscape is marked by a series of interconnected challenges, each with far-reaching implications. In Peru, internal political disagreements persist, hindering an effective response to the demands of the pro-Castillo protest movement. The economic fallout is evident, affecting everyday Peruvians and potentially impacting the global supply chain due to the country's significant reserves of precious metals. As the situation unfolds, increased attention to Peru's economic stability and potential disruptions in the supply of precious metals may follow.

In the Asia-Pacific region, the Taiwan Strait remains a focal point of tension. Taiwan's evaluation of an air-launched variant of the Hsing Feng III Anti-Ship Cruise Missile and the narrowing gap in the presidential race between Kuomintang candidate Hou Yu-ih and Taiwan Progressive Party candidate William Lai underscore the heightened security environment in the region.  China's indications of intent to capture the Senkaku Islands if it invades Taiwan add a layer of complexity to the already strained cross-strait relations. Additionally, the real-time sharing of North Korean missile data with neighboring countries signals evolving dynamics in the region, with potential implications for the  regional security dynamic and the success or failure of future diplomatic efforts.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippines' looks to acquire multi-purpose amphibious aircraft,  reflecting a strategic move to enhance logistics capabilities, particularly in contested areas like the Second Thomas Shoal. The strengthening of Vietnam-China relations through various agreements underscores the evolving geopolitical landscape. Meanwhile, Myanmar's ceasefire along the China-Myanmar border and India's exploration of a non-lapsable modernization fund for defense programs demonstrate regional efforts to address security challenges.

The Middle East remains a hotspot of conflict, with the Gaza conflict showing signs of causing fatigue among Western powers, including the United States, due to concerns about Israel's military tactics and civilian casualties. The spillover effects in Iraq and Syria, with attacks on U.S. assets by Iranian proxy forces, pose a serious threat to stability in the region. Simultaneously, Houthi rebels in Yemen continue to jeopardize a crucial global shipping lane, increasing the prospects for increased military activity in the area if such actions persist. 

A myriad of challenges present themselves to decision-makers around the globe, ranging from political instability in South America, heightened tensions in the Asia-Pacific and the enduring conflicts in the Middle East. The interconnectedness of these issues necessitates a nuanced approach to these current and emerging threats, but also decisive action. Should the U.S. and its allies and partners fail to decisively respond to these threats, deviant actors around the globe will be emboldened to challenge the rule of law. 

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick

Venezuela-Guyana Sitrep       

On December 3rd, Venezuela held a referendum to decide on the annexation of Essequibo, a region currently controlled by, and internationally recognized as a part of, Guyana. To the surprise of very few observers, Venezuela claims that its population overwhelmingly supported the annexation of the region. Now that the country has “the will of the people” to back up its claim, it is feared that Venezuela may try to annex the region by force.

December Referendum

The issue over ownership of Essequibo has been covered by this publication before. The dispute dates back hundreds of years to when European powers were in control of Venezuela and now-Guyana. Essequibo makes up two-thirds of Guyana’s territory and within the past decade has been found to hold a large amount of oil reserves. This discovery made Guyana the most oil rich nation per capita in the world. It also gave Venezuela an incentive to reassert its claim to Essequibo. 

Earlier this year, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro decided to hold a public referendum on the annexation of the region. That vote was held on December 3rd and consisted of five questions related to the annexation. At the request of Guyana, the International Court of Justice ordered Venezuela to refrain from holding the referendum on December 1st, however the court’s order was effectively non-enforceable. The country went ahead with the vote, and as expected, Maduro’s government claimed that no question on the ballot received less than 95.4% support in favor of asserting Venezuela's territorial claim. There are questions as to how truthful the government is being in terms of voter turnout. They claimed that over 10 million people voted in the referendum; however many polling places reported a fraction of registered voters appearing throughout the voting period.   

Post-Referendum Actions

Venezuela quickly validated the referendum results and officially annexed Essequibo. As of the writing of this article, Venezuela does not currently control that region. Although, some fear that may soon change. President Maduro has tapped Major General Alexis Rodriquez Caballo to be the head of that new Guayana Esequiba State. Caballo is currently a deputy with Maduro’s United Socialist Party of Venezuela. He is also the commander officer of the military region overseeing Caracas and the former commanding general of the Venezuelan Army. Maduro almost immediately began planning to exploit Essequibo’s natural resources. On December 6th, he ordered offshore oil producers, namely Exxonmobil, to cease operations off the coast of the region within 90 days. He also ordered state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVDSA) and state-owned mining company Corporacion Venezolana de Guayana (CVG) to establish divisions for the new state.

Many regional observers fear that Venezuela may attempt to seize the region through military action. To say the Guyana Defense Force would face an uphill battle when trying to defend against an invasion is an understatement. Its current personnel count is less than 4,000, including reservists. The force has three battalions of varying sizes and roles; as well as a support element and a special forces element. Older AKM and Type 56 assault rifles appear to be the most commonly issued personal weapons. The force also operates some 81mm mortars and +30 year old Brazilian-made armored cars that might not even be serviceable. As far as air and air defense assets go, they have Strella-2 man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) and three light Bell utility helicopters. One helicopter crashed in early December. In order to deter a Venezuelan invasion and bolster its defense capabilities, the force has begun conducting joint flight operations with US Southern Command. It has also received training staff from a US Army Security Force Assistance Brigade. 

Maduro and President of Guyana Irfaan Ali met in Argyle, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines on December 14th to discuss tensions between their two countries. The two leaders, with the facilitation of regional partners,  made The Joint Declaration of Argyle for Dialogue and Peace Between Guyana and Venezuela. The points declared include the two nations not threatening the use of force against one another to settle disputes, any disputes will be resolved in accordance with international law (including the Geneva Agreement of 1966), and joint commitment to the pursuance of coexistence and the unity of Latin America and the Caribbean. It should be noted though, that the two presidents did not specifically negotiate the fate of Essequibo; though they did agree to meet in Brazil no later than three months from now¹. 

More Than A Grand Slam

A former career State Department official has been arrested and charged for allegedly spying on behalf of the Cuban government. This case is one of the highest reaching and longest lasting instances of foreign espionage targeting the United States in history. 

Rocha’s Career

Victor Manuel Rocha is a Colombian-born naturalized US citizen. In 1976, he received a master’s degree in public administration and a Master of Science in Foreign Service from Georgetown University two years later. He began his career at the State Department in 1981; three years after becoming a citizen. His first posting was as a desk officer in Honduras in 1981 and after as a Political Officer at the US Embassy in the Dominican Republic from 1982 to 1985. Between 1985 and 2000, Rocha served in diplomatic roles in Cuba, Italy, Mexico, and Argentina. In 2000, he was appointed as the US Ambassador to Bolivia by President Bill Clinton and served in that post for two years. 

During his time as ambassador, he gave a speech condemning then-presidential candidate Evo Morales, a pro-Cuba socialist, for his support of coca growers. In that speech, he threatened to cut US support to Bolivia and the result was the boosting of Morales’ support in the 2002 election. Former Assistant Secretary of State Otto J. Reich, who was Rocha’s supervisor at the time, said that “[Rocha] never cleared that with State” and that he remembered being “seriously annoyed’ regarding the speech. Morales suggested that Rocha’s speech helped his campaign and even jokingly called him his “chief of campaign”    

During the 1990s, he served for two years in the National Security Council as the director of inter-American affairs. Since leaving the State Department, he has served as an advisor to US Southern Command from 2006-2012, on the board of the Council for Foreign Relations, and the International Advisory Board for the University of Miami; the latter two of which he currently maintains. He has also served on the advisory board of the university’s Cuba Transition Project and the International Council on Terrorism. 

Spying Allegations

In late 2022, Rocha was contacted on WhatsApp by an undercover FBI agent claiming to be a member of Cuba’s intelligence services. Rocha met with the agent multiple times and detailed his time working on behalf of Cuban intelligence. Court documents do not detail any information that he may have given to the Cuban government or how the FBI came to suspect him. 

The FBI claims that he was first recruited by Cuba’s Directorate of Intelligence in the 1970s in Chile. Rocha spent multiple years in the country during the ‘70s and witnessed the election of socialist President Salvador Allende, as well as the junta that deposed him led by General Augusto Pinochet. He allegedly began spying for Cuba in 1981, the same year that he started working at the State Department. While meeting with the undercover agent, he allegedly said that his work for Cuba “strengthened the Revolution” and he referred to the US as “the enemy”. Federal prosecutors say that he celebrated and bragged about his work for Cuba and used the term “we” to describe Cuba and himself and said that he wanted to “protect…what we have done”. At one point, the undercover agent asked Rocha if he was still working for Cuba. Rocha allegedly took offense to his loyalty being questioned, saying it was “like questioning [his] manhood”.

Court documents also claim that he said he was “in charge” of Cuba’s Operation Scorpion in 1996, which was the shooting down of two unarmed civilian planes over international waters, killing four people. The planes belonged to Brothers to the Rescue, a Miami-based non-profit that aids Cuban dissidents and migrants. Rocha was a senior diplomat in Havana at the time.

On December 1st, he was charged in the District of Southern Florida. He is accused of multiple crimes, including making false statements to the US govt and making false statements to obtain travel documents. Additional charges are expected to be brought against Rocha in the future. The designation of the Cuban government as a sponsor of terrorism could add a layer to the allegations against him. He is currently in federal custody².

Looking Forward

The future of Essequibo is up in the air. The threat of military action from Venezuela should not be discounted, but at the very least, negotiations between the two countries gives Guyana more time to prepare its defenses and lobby for foreign aid. The case of Victor Manuel Rocha should be a major wakeup call for the State Department. Better vetting for employees is obviously needed. Rocha was able to spy on his employer for 21 years, and continue spying on the United States for an additional 21 years. If he really is responsible for the deaths of four innocent people, as he claims, it will be interesting to see what additional crimes he is charged with by the Department of Justice.