Bulletin From The Borderlands

15 September 2023

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Kitbag Conversations : A team of retired Marine and Army Intelligence analysts and the founders of the Croatoan Report and Kitbag Conversations, foreign policy and security affairs podcasts. The Team Leader for Bulletin From The Borderlands.

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He attends San Jose State University and is pursuing a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the assistant lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

Sino Talk : Sino Talk is China watcher with extensive experience living and studying in China. In another life, he was a Marine intelligence analyst. 

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Calisto Report: The Calisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

ALCON S2: A veteran of the New Zealand military intelligence community, if it walks, talks, or crawls in Asia, ALCON S2 knows about it. Cole is the preeminent source of OSINT for the Oceania and South East Asia region.

Sponsors

The Bulletin is brought you to by PB Abbate.

As you likely know, Lethal Minds Journal shares common ancestry with Patrol Base Abbate, one of the most impactful veteran’s outreach organizations in America. One of the ways in which we connect is through a love of the written word, a belief in the power of good writing to help give a voice to people who need to be heard, and a desire to help service members and vets connect through self-expression.

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate). 

The Cuban government has uncovered a plot to recruit its nationals into the Russian military. This incident has led to an interesting and somewhat confusing response from one of Russia’s closest allies. In Central America, Panama has been experiencing a historic drought that has affected traffic at the canal. As restrictions are put into place to combat the drought, consumers ultimately pay the price.

Europe : Covered in this issue by Meridian News and Defense Bulletin. 

Europe has a ground war raging red-hot on its Eastern border, and is fighting the influx of hundreds of thousands of immigrants on its Southern border, while trying to maintain stability for normal people to live life and make a living across the continent. Four European nations, traditionally some of Ukraine’s biggest trade partners, are pushing to extend a ban on importing Ukrainian grain that Kyiv unsurprisingly views as a slight. These nations have opted to focus their efforts on their own citizens and to keep their own agricultural sectors alive and well. Additionally, illegal migrants continue to flood the southern shores of Europe, primarily Italy in search of a better life. Italian local governments are struggling to support the hundreds of thousands of migrants and are pressuring their national government for assistance. The national government is in turn pressing the European Union to take action and help support what is already an overflow of illegal migration into Europe.

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by Sino Talk

Taiwan’s National Chung Shan Institute of Science and Technology displayed new drones at the Taipei Aerospace and Defense Technology Exhibition. Taiwan also released its 2023 National Defense Report that discusses incorporating lessons learned from the Ukrainian conflict. Taiwanese independent presidential candidate Terry Gou picked actress Tammy Darshana Lai as his running mate. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a “island encirclement patrol” around Taiwan that also coincided with a carrier exercise off the east coast of Taiwan. Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu is suspected to be under investigation by Chinese authorities after not being seen for two weeks. Russian President Vladimir Putin accepted an invitation from Kim Jong Un to visit the country in the future. Japanese Prime Minister Kishida chose Pro-Taiwan politician Kihara Minoru as new defense minister. 

Senior Philippine and U.S. military officials are considering expanding the number of sites that fall under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. Vietnam and the United States upgraded their bilateral ties to comprehensive strategic partnership. Myanmar received the first two of six SU-SME jet aircraft as part of a contract the country signed in November 2022. The Royal Australian Air Force deployed F-35As to Japan for the first time to participate in Exercise Bushido Guardian 2023 to train with Japanese Air Self-Defense Forces. The first round of the Maldives Presidential elections led to the pro-Chinese candidate taking the lead against the pro-India candidate. The Indian military is studying how it could respond to a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Some of the scenarios range from India becoming a maintenance and supply hub for the United States and allies to direct involvement

Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by the S2 Fwd

As Iran and Israel continue to throw threats towards each other, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthi’s attempt to broker a ceasefire. While the Israeli-Iran situation could expand their hostilities to Armenia and Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen continue to minimize hostilities in an effort to find peace. 

Africa: Covered in this issue by the Expeditionary Intelligence Group

On September 8, 2023, a 6.8 magnitude earthquake struck high in the Atlas Mountain range in Morocco, approximately 70 kilometers from Marrakech, however, reports of the quake were noted as far north as Casablanca. Due to the magnitude of the quake, severe property damage and loss of life were reported. At the time of writing this report, the current casualties have reached over 2,800 and the number injured has climbed to over 2,500 individuals. These figures could continue to rise as first responders and civilian-led search parties continue looking for people trapped under the rubble. The worst damage was assessed to be in the province of Al-Haouz where approximately 1500 people have died, entire villages have been destroyed, and survivors in need are in remote, hard-to-reach locations. Eyewitnesses in the foothills of the Atlas Mountains said some towns were destroyed, with almost all the homes in an area of the village of Asni damaged. It is estimated that the effects of this quake have impacted more than 300,000 people.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: PARLACEN Willing to Parlay with the PRC. 

The Japanese Air Self Defense Forces have (JASDF)  integrated the BAE Systems EPAWSS electronic warfare system into their fleet of F-15s. This latest upgrade is included in a long list of upgrades that the JASDF is making force-wide and will also increase interoperability with Japan’s allies and partners in the region. This upgrade may make it easier to force-package Japanese assets with the F-35 operated by the U.S., Australia, and the ROK. 

Read more in the piece written by Sino Talk.

Strategic Forecast:  John M. Larrier (Defense Bulletin)

As mentioned in the last Bulletin, the U.S. and their allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region have taken further steps to increase interoperability and defense cooperation. Japan’s integration of the EPAWSS system will help ease employment of these stratagems. As two high ranking U.S. Army generals have arrived in Armenia to kick off the U.S.-Armenian exercise Eagle Partner 2023, Iran seeks to combat Israeli actions by expanding the already in use corridor through Armenia. The geopolitical situation in this region is multifaceted to say the least. Decreased Russian influence in the region has reinvigorated tensions between Turkish backed Azerbaijan and formerly Russian backed Armenia. The U.S. seeks to replace Russia as Armenia’s primary beneficiary. This will not only put them at odds with Iranian attempts to influence the region, but may pit U.S. interests directly against Turkish interests in the region should the tensions between the two Caucus nations escalate. 

Cuban officials have voiced their displeasure with Russia for pressing Cuban nationals into service on the front lines in Ukraine. While Russia’s actions won't push Cuba any closer to the U.S., it could open the doors for increased Chinese influence in the region. China is already taking advantage of Russia's lack of hard power worldwide. 

Morocco and Libya are seeing record numbers of deaths from recent flooding. The flooding in Libya shows the effects of extreme weather on underdeveloped infrastructure.

See Also:

• Ukrainian forces destroyed several vessels of the Russian navy in dry dock using Storm Shadow missiles provided by the UK.

• PLAN vessels conducted their largest exercise to date around Taiwan.

• India, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the US agreed to a joint trade program to expand the flow of goods from South East Asia, through the Persian Gulf, to Europe. This plan competes with Chinese proposed Belt and Road initiatives. China did not attend the G20.

• Ukrainian forces have continued to expand their gains around Robotnye and into Zaprozhia. Russian telegram reports significant Russian losses.

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick

Cubans Fighting Russia’s War 

In recent weeks, Cuban authorities have discovered an effort to recruit Cuban nationals to join the Russian war machine in Ukraine. Even after the end of the Cold War, Cuba has been one of Russia’s most loyal allies. For that reason, the Cuban government’s response to this new discovery is surprising.

Cubans in the War

The network that was recruiting Cubans to fight in Ukraine was discovered by the Cuban Foreign Ministry. According to the ministry, the network recruited both Cubans living in Russia and Cubans living at home. Ukrainian hackers have uncovered the passports and other information of some 199 Cuban nationals that received Russian military training with the purpose of deploying to Ukraine. Their information was found in the digital mailbox of Major Anton Peryevozchikov, a Russian military officer responsible for contract recruitment in the city of Tula.

In order to bolster its forces without mobilizing more Russian citizens, Russia has been offering the equivalent of $2,000 a month and a fast-track to citizenship for foreign nationals that sign a contract with the Russian military. Foreign nationals have also been literally pulled off of the street into recruiting offices and coerced into signing a contract with the military. 

Extensive reporting on this subject has been done by a Cuban blogger living in Miami that goes by ALAIN PAPARAZZI CUBANO on YouTube. One of his videos details two Cuban nationals, Alex Vegas and Andorf Velasquez, both 19-years-old. The two men say that they flew to Russia in July and were told that they would be digging defensive positions and rebuilding homes that had been damaged in the war. However, they say they were misled and sent to a unit on the frontlines in Ukraine. The men say that roughly 200 other Cubans flew from Varadero, Cuba to Russia with them, which seems to confirm the claims made by Ukrainian hackers. They say they were offered a one-year contract with the Russian military with the typically offered salary for a foreigner serving in the military and Russian citizenship for them and their families. Both of the men had their passports taken away once arriving at the airport. 

Once they had been integrated into the Russian military, the 19-year-olds said that they began receiving military training and came to realize that they were being prepared for deployment. They claim that some Cubans in the group, including themselves, refused to be deployed and asked to be sent back to Cuba. They were allegedly beaten by a Russian soldier and threatened with imprisonment. The two men have since seen combat against Ukrainian forces and are currently hospitalized in Kaliningrad due to illness. They say that they will be sent back into combat once they are released from the hospital. Additionally, they claim that they have not been paid since arriving in Russia. It is not clear if any Cubans in the Russian military have received their monthly salary, but $2,000 a month is a fortune on the island nation. Not even doctors make that much. 

Response From Cuba

Since the dawn of the Soviet-Cuban alliance after the Cuban Revolution, Havana and Moscow have been close allies. This did not change after the collapse of the USSR and the formation of the Russian Federation. After the invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014, one of the first major actions in the Russo-Ukrainian War, Cuba recognized the peninsula as Russian territory. After the invasion began early last year, Cuba stopped short of endorsing the Russian campaign. It did, however, endorse Russia’s right to “self-defense” in the face of NATO expansion and blamed the crisis on the United States.  

Despite being a staunch, long-time ally of Moscow, Cuba’s foreign ministry condemned the effort to get Cubans to fight in Ukraine, saying that “Cuba is not part of the war in Ukraine. It is acting and will act vigorously against whoever, from the national territory, participates in any form of human trafficking to recruit mercenaries so that Cuban citizens use weapons against any country.” Authorities went on to arrest 17 people connected to the ring; all of whom are Cuban citizens. According to Jose Luis Reyes, a prosecutor involved in the case, the defendants could face a minimum of 30 years to life or possibly the death penalty depending on the severity of their crimes. They face human trafficking charges and are also being charged with fighting as mercenaries and committing a hostile act against a foreign state.  

Interestingly, the Russian government, through state-news agency RIA Novosti claims that Cuba is not opposed to the “legal” participation of its citizens in the war on Russia’s behalf. RIA quoted the country's ambassador in Moscow, Julio Antonio Garmendia Pena, who said, “[The government has] nothing against Cubans who just want to sign a contract and legally take part with the Russian army in this operation. But we are against illegality and these operations that have nothing to do with the legal field". Obviously, this appears to contradict not only the statements of the government in Havana, but also its actions. Additionally, Cubans found to be fighting in Ukraine have been serving in the Russian Armed Forces, and not private military companies. Therefore, it is not clear how a distinction would be made between a Cuban that was recruited for the Russian military by the recently uncovered network and a Cuban that was recruited by other means. This makes one wonder what exactly the difference is between “legal” and “illegal” participation in the war¹.

Bottleneck at the Panama Canal

Panama is currently experiencing a major drought that is having an effect on global trade. Conditions at the Panama Canal, key to global trade, are worsening and may necessitate further restrictions on shipping. 

Drought Conditions

Panama has been experiencing a major drought in recent months. El Niño, a climate pattern that moves the Pacific jet stream further south. This has led to a sporadic supply of rain to the world’s fifth-rainiest country. Additionally, El Niño aside, Panama has been experiencing lower levels in rain in the past years, according to Ricaurte Vasquez, the canal’s administrator. Water for the canal is supplied from Panama’s interior rivers and reservoirs. When a ship transits through the canal, roughly 120 million gallons of water from those waterways are lost to the ocean. In Lake Gatun, for example, the water level has dropped from 89 feet above sea level to 79 feet since last December.  

In order to get around the drought issue, the canal has begun putting draft restrictions into place. A draft limit is the minimum depth that a ship can safely navigate the canal. The higher the limit, the more cargo a ship can carry. As the drought has gotten worse over the summer, the canal has reduced its draft limit from 50 to 44 feet. Because of this, cargo ships have had to reduce their loads by as much as 25% in some cases. The reduction in capacity for cargo ships means that more ships are needed to fill the gap. Additionally, the canal has now limited the amount of ships that can pass each day, in order to save water. Normally, 36 ships pass through the canal each day; but now that number is only 32.

These restrictions have created a bottleneck on both sides of the canal, which has led to increased wait times and costs to transit the canal. Ships pay as much as $400,000 to cross now. Of the 32 ships that are able to transit the canal each day, 28 of them are booked. Booked vessels generally don’t have to worry about long wait times. However, ships that aren’t on a fixed route, like bulk or gas carriers, do have to wait since their short-notice schedules do not allow them to pre-book. Since June, the average wait time transit the canal has gone from two to ten days. However, the maximum wait time was 14 days in September, which is actually down from 21 days in August. At one point this month, 127 ships were waiting to enter the canal.  

The restrictions currently in place are expected to last for at least another ten months. However, with conditions worsening, the canal may implement further reductions. The budget for fiscal year 2024, which starts in October, foresees a reduction to 30 or 31 ships each day. Vasquez did confirm that the Panama Canal Authority is not looking at imposing a lower draft limit because that would impact 70% of the canal’s shippers.    

Effects on Trade 

The Panama Canal facilitates 5% of global trade and over 70% of the cargo that transits the canal is either leaving or going to the United States. The restrictions put in place by the Canal Authority have the potential to hurt importers in the Northern Hemisphere and exporters in the South. Meat from Brazil, bananas from Ecuador, and natural gas from the US Gulf Coast often pass through the canal. Additionally, wine and copper from Chile are going through the canal as well. The canal is also one of the least expensive avenues to ship grain and other agricultural products around the world. 

Some carriers are seeking other routes to ship their goods, such as the Suez Canal. These routes add time to the journey, but may be cheaper than going through Panama. However, Maersk, one of the world’s largest shipping companies, says it has no plans to move operations from Panama.

The costs associated with the canal restrictions are passed on from shipping companies to their customers. Their customers then of course pass those costs on to the average consumer. Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, and other holidays are right around the corner. This means that global shipping is about to increase, as are the wait times to transit the Panama Canal and associated costs².      

Looking Forward

The future of Cubans in the Russian military is hard to predict given the confusing response from the Caribbean nation. As Russia’s force in Ukraine continues to suffer combat losses, it will look for means of supplementing that force without implementing another round of mobilization. As long as Russia faces no real consequences, recruiting foreign nationals will be a preferred method of supplementing the force for the time being. Panama is trying to divert other waterways to feed into the canal and alleviate drought conditions. However, these projects will take a lot of time and money. Until they are completed, the Panama Canal Authority can only hope for more rain.