Bulletin From The Borderlands

15 June 2023

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Kitbag Conversations : A team of retired Marine and Army Intelligence analysts and the founders of the Croatoan Report and Kitbag Conversations, foreign policy and security affairs podcasts. The Team Leader for Bulletin From The Borderlands.

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He attends San Jose State University and is pursuing a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the assistant lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

Sino Talk : Sino Talk is China watcher with extensive experience living and studying in China. In another life, he was a Marine intelligence analyst. 

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Callisto Report: The Callisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events.

The Bulletin is brought you to by PB Abbate, Fieldseats.com, and JFT Defense Solutions.

As you likely know, Lethal Minds Journal shares common ancestry with Patrol Base Abbate, one of the most impactful veteran’s outreach organizations in America. One of the ways in which we connect is through a love of the written word, a belief in the power of good writing to help give a voice to people who need to be heard, and a desire to help service members and vets connect through self-expression. This summer, Sebastian Junger, award winning writer of War, Tribe, and Freedom (amongst others), will join the Patrol Base Abbate Book Club in Montana for their annual Return to Base Program. From June 22nd-26th, members of the Book Club will spend a few days discussing literature while they reconnect with nature and other veterans at Patrol Base Abbate’s PB in Thompson Falls, Montana. Details about eligibility are at https://www.pbabbate.org/rtb-application-0-0.

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Each item reviewed is given away for free as a part of their promotion for purchasing what they call a “Field Review.” Currently, they’ve got Field Reviews up ranging from $20 for a brand new Smith & Wesson M&P Shield 2.0 to $65 for a new IWI Galil ACE GEN II. Each review is limited to around 38 people, so your chances of winning the giveaway is that much higher!

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JFT Defense Solutions

At JFT Defense Solutions, our mission is to provide unparalleled protective and intelligence services to our clients, ensuring their safety and security in an ever-changing world. We strive to deliver customized, confidential solutions that exceed expectations, utilizing our expertise in risk assessment, threat analysis, and intelligence gathering to mitigate potential risks and provide proactive solutions. Our commitment to excellence, professionalism, and integrity is paramount in all our operations, and we continuously strive to stay ahead of emerging threats to provide the highest level of service to our clients. Our goal is to provide peace of mind, allowing our clients to focus on their business and personal pursuits with the knowledge that their safety and security are in the most capable hands.

JFT Defense Solutions aims to be the new benchmark for private security and intelligence firms. We achieve this by working collaboratively and effectively as a team to provide the highest duty of care to our clients, by being adaptable to changing circumstances enabling us to provide tailored solutions to our diverse client industries, and by staying at the forefront of the industry by utilizing innovative technologies and techniques. Currently, JFT Defense Solutions offers turnkey security services including executive protection, site security, risk mitigation services, threat intelligence, ad-hoc intelligence reporting, and much more. Additionally, JFT Defense Solutions is the sole distributor for Trigger’s Reports risk and asset management monitoring software for the western hemisphere allowing them to bring cutting-edge data-driven risk analytics and monitoring to markets that need it most.  

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate). 

China has established a spy base in Cuba to listen in on the United States. The move has caused many politicians and journalists to draw comparisons to the Cuban Missile Crisis and highlights China’s moves into Latin America. Also, former US President Donald Trump became the first president in history to be indicted by a federal grand jury. This is in relation to the FBI search warrant carried out on his home last year.   

Europe : Covered in this issue by Meridian News

Europe remains engrossed by the far-reaching implications of Russia’s war on Ukraine. We’re beginning to see long standing tensions between Russian President Vladamir Putin and Wagner Group’s leader Yevgeny Prigochin as Russia’s Defence ministry asks all private military contracts to sign a contract effectively giving the state more control over these otherwise private entities. Additionally, the recent destruction of a dam on the Dnipro river has put tens of thousands into immediate crisis while raising concerns about the already mounting food crisis due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by Sino Talk

Chinese and South Korean relations continue to sour, with the South Korean president criticizing recent comments made by China’s ambassador, saying South Korea made ‘the wrong choice’ by siding with the United States. Japan recently passed a new law to allow for increased production and export of weapons in a bid to help its defense industry and increase defense ties with other countries. Chinese Leader Xi Jinping pitched China’s Global Security Initiative, Global Development Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative in a letter to the Global Human Rights Governance Forum to increase China’s global influence. 

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) first joint military drills in the South China Sea (SCS) was dealt a blow due to Cambodia allegedly not agreeing to the exercise. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) will build a new base on Calayan Island – located in the northern Cagayan province as it expands its coastal defense system. Vietnam formally protested recent exercises the Taiwanese military held in waters around Taiping Island as a violation of Hanoi’s sovereignty. 

India may sign a deal to purchase at least 30 M-9B SeaGuardian armed drones during Indian Prime Minister’s Modi’s visit to the United States. Both the sale and visit come as the Indian Navy recently conducted a dual aircraft carrier operation in the Arab Sea that saw the participation of at least 35 fixed-and rotary- wing aircraft. Fiji and New Zealand agreed to strengthen military ties during the recent signing of a Status of Forces Agreement. 

Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by the S2 Fwd

US forces move F-22’s into the Middle East after weeks of unprofessional behavior displayed by Russian pilots. Additionally, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces received the Iranian UAV, the Mohajer. This will give pro-Iranian groups the ability to conduct long range strikes against US forces or allies.

Africa: Covered in this issue by the Expeditionary Intelligence Group

Food insecurity rocks Central Africa. Ethiopia loses access to food aid, South Sudan continues to experience instability, and civil unrest blooms across Senegal. Africa continues to be the most unstable place on the planet, riven by food shortages (caused in large part by climate change and the War in Ukraine) external influences (Russia and the PRC) and endemic domestic corruption and economic turmoil.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: Catastrophe on the Dniepr  

The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam in Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast may have triggered one of the worst ecological disasters so far in this century. As many as one million people may face water shortages. Thousands of others are without homes. Underwater minefields have drifted to different areas. Toxic metals from flooded industrial plants have polluted the water, as have various types of waste. Dozens of villages have been evacuated as well. The dam will take an estimated five years and $1 billion to repair.   

See Also:

• Ukrainian forces have begun offensive actions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and in Southern Donetsk.

• Egypt has formally applied to join BRICS

• Missing Colombian children have been found alive after more than 40 days in the Amazon jungle

• Almost two dozen US servicemen were wounded in a helicopter incident in Syria

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick

The Red Dragon Loves Ropa Vieja

Earlier this month, it was reported by multiple outlets that China was in negotiations with Cuba to establish a base on the island with the purpose of spying on the United States. The reporting led to politicians drawing comparisons to the Cold War and may threaten President Joe Biden’s efforts to improve relations with the PRC. 

Base Details

The reports claim that the base would cost the Chinese government the equivalent of billions of dollars and would allow its intelligence agencies to conduct surveillance on the southeastern United States mainly through monitoring communications. This region is home to a number of major US military bases and key industries. Cuba lies just 100 miles from some parts of Key West, Florida. It is believed that the base is just outside of the village of Bejucal, Mayabeque Province, The village was host to Soviet nuclear warheads during the Cuban Missile Crisis and Mayabeque is the province that lies closest to the United States.

After the reports first broke this month, news agencies went to Bejucal to try and gather information on the site. Reuters reporters found large parabolic antennas, a rusted white metal dome that may house other antennas, and cryptic black triangles. Those reporters also claimed that unknown men wearing civilian clothes were driving around the area on motorcycles and taking photos of journalists. Reuters spoke to locals around the base and many said they believed it served a military purpose, but did not know many details. None of them were aware of rumors regarding a Chinese presence in the area, but many did believe that Russia had access to the base.

At the time, two unnamed sources told CNN that they believed construction on the base had not yet begun. However, a document from the Federal Communications Commission cited information claiming that the Chinese Communist Party “[maintained] a physical presence at Soviet-era intelligence facilities at Bejucal in what [appeared] to be a signals intelligence collection operation”. That information comes from a report by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission dating all the way back to 2018. Additionally, in 2016, Florida Senator Marco Rubio claimed that China had a “listening station” in Bejucal. When Biden took office in early 2021, he was allegedly briefed that China plans to build similar bases around the world.   

Responses

The Cuban government was quick to deny the reports. Cuba’s Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio said the reports were “totally false and [full of] unfounded information. The Cuban government did not respond to questions regarding the Bejucal facility from Reuters. 

During a press briefing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said that he was not aware of the initial reports. Although, he did say, “it’s well-known that the US interferes in the affairs of other countries and has been a leading power in hacking and eavesdropping”.

After the initial reports broke, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said that the reports were “not accurate”. Kirby did not specify what exact information in the reports were false, but this led media outlets to believe that the reporting was false in its entirety. However, just days later the Biden administration confirmed that the Chinese base did exist and said that it had been operational since 2019. Kirby defended his characterization of the reports, saying that the reports were not wholly accurate and the administration could not offer more details due to the sensitive nature of the topic.  

Impacts on Bilateral Relations

This comes at a time when President Biden is trying to improve relations with China. Tensions between the two countries have been unusually high since a Chinese spy balloon flew over the United States and was shot down over the Atlantic Ocean in February. Since that time, China has been reluctant to communicate with the United States regarding defense matters.  At the Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit this month, Chinese Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu declined to meet with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin. CIA Director William Burns recently made a secret trip to China to keep the lines of communication open between the two countries. Additionally, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to travel to China in the coming weeks in an attempt to lessen diplomatic tensions. That trip was supposed to happen in February, but was delayed after the aforementioned spy balloon was shot down.  

Making History For the Wrong Reasons

On June 8th, former US President Donald Trump and one of his aides were indicted by a federal grand jury on alleged crimes in relation to an investigation by Special Counsel Jack Smith. Smith was investigating the former president for the storage of classified documents at Trump's Mar-a-Lago home after leaving office and his reluctance to return them to the National Archives when requested.  

Origins of the Investigation

After leaving office in January 2021, at least 15 boxes of documents were taken from the White House to Mar-a-Lago. In January 2022, the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) began the process to retrieve those boxes from Trump. After receiving at least some of the documents from Trump’s lawyers, NARA discovered that among them were documents containing classified information. NARA notified the Department of Justice and the House Committee on Oversight and Reform.

In May 2022, after subpoenaing retrieved documents from NARA, the FBI opened a grand jury investigation into the incorrect storage of classified documents by Trump. The DoJ ordered Trump to return all classified documents in his possession to the care of the federal government. On August 8th, the FBI executed a search warrant on Mar-a-Lago after Trump’s failure to present all classified documents in his possession to the DoJ. The FBI characterized this as a potential obstruction of justice. That search warrant recovered roughly 13,000 government documents, including classified material deemed “National Defense Information”. On November 18th, US Attorney General Merrick Garland named former federal prosecutor Jack Smith as a special counsel to investigate Trump for the improper storage of classified documents and his role in the riot at the US Capitol building on January 6th, 2021. 

Indictment and Arraignment

Trump and his aide, Waltine Nauta, were indicted by a grand jury in the US District Court of Southern Florida. Trump was charged with 38 felony counts in total. This includes 31 counts of willful retention of National Defense Information, one count of conspiracy to obstruct justice, one count of withholding a document or record, one count of corruptly concealing a document or record, one count of concealing a document in a federal investigation, one count of scheme to conceal, and one count of false statements and representations. These charges do not carry a minimum sentence, but they do carry a maximum sentence of 400 years. Of course, the likelihood of the former president going to federal prison for the maximum amount of time is very slim. 

The indictment claims that Trump kept hundreds of classified documents in boxes during his time as president and transferred those boxes to Mar-a-Lago after he left office without declassifying them. They included information on US and allied weapons capabilities, US nuclear programs, potential weakness of the US and other nations, and potential US responses to attacks by a foreign nation. It is alleged that Trumps showed some classified documents to people without security clearances on at least two occasions. This includes a publishing agent and a staff member for an unnamed Super PAC. Lastly, it is alleged that Trump tried to obstruct the FBI and the federal grand jury by lying about the storage of these materials.

When the indictment was released, one of Trump’s lawyers, James Trusty, claimed that a lawyer named Jay Bratt extorted the lawyer of co-defendant Waltine Nauta. Bratt is a high level attorney within the DoJ’s national security division and Trusty claims that Bratt offered Nauta’s lawyer a position as a Washington DC Circuit judge if he could persuade his client to testify against Trump. That is a very heavy accusation and if true, that would constitute a crime. It would also presumably be a main legal defense for Trump’s team. Trusty did not offer any evidence regarding that accusation at the time, but said that he would pursue a subpoena for related materials. However, James Trusty resigned as a member of Trump’s legal team on the very next day. Along with him, another lawyer named John Rawley also resigned. The two did not give reasons for leaving the team.

On June 13th, Trump and Nauta turned themselves in at the federal courthouse in Miami, Florida. At that point they were arrested and fingerprinted by US marshals. They were later placed in front of Judge Jonathan Goodman. The defendants were released on their own recognizance and advised by prosecutors not to speak to each other about the case. Nauta remains on payroll as one of Trump’s aides. Judge Goodman will preside over preliminary matters and Judge Aileen M. Cannon will take over for the actual trial. It is not clear when Trump will be back in court, but cases involving classified documents are not known for their speediness¹.         

Looking Forward

Many members of Congress from both parties have called on the Biden administration to take action in regards to the spy base in Cuba. However, it isn’t clear that any action will be taken; especially considering the fact that the administration is seeking better relations with Beijing. Regardless, China will continue to make moves into the Western Hemisphere in order to challenge US dominance in the area. The indictment in the Southern District of Florida does not bar Trump from running in 2024. In fact, the indictment has led to a jump in his poll numbers for the Republican primary and has likely emboldened his core base. Additionally, being incarcerated cannot keep someone from a presidential ticket either. Eugene Debs ran for president in 1920 while serving time in a federal prison. It is possible that Trump can be elected as president in 2024 while sitting in federal prison. Whether that is likely or not is another question. Trump still faces two investigations: Jack Smith’s investigation into January 6th and District Attorney Fani T. Willis of Fulton County, Georgia who is investigating Trump for allegedly attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in the state.