Bulletin From The Borderlands

15 March 2023

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Kitbag Conversations : A team of retired Marine and Army Intelligence analysts and the founders of the Croatoan Report and Kitbag Conversations, foreign policy and security affairs podcasts. The Team Leader for Bulletin From The Borderlands.

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He attends San Jose State University and is pursuing a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the assistant lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

Sino Talk : Sino Talk is China watcher with extensive experience living and studying in China. In another life, he was a Marine intelligence analyst. 

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

This week’s Bulletin is brought you to by Fieldseats.com. Fieldseats.com is an e-commerce federally licensed firearms dealer. They provide virtual reviews on brand new firearms, optics, and gear where at the end of the review they give away the item being reviewed to an attendee!

Currently, they’ve got Reviews up ranging from $20 for a brand new Smith & Wesson M&P Shield 2.0 to $60 for a new Trijicon ACOG with RMR. Each review has limited seating so your chances of winning the giveaway are that much higher!

Check out fieldseats.com to purchase your Reviews and enter to win the item being reviewed and use code “LETHALMINDS” to get 10% off your order. Be sure to also check out their Instagram, Twitter, and YouTube @field_seats for updates on product and other tips and info!

Use code “LETHALMINDS” to receive 10% off your entire purchase at fieldseats.com! Terms and conditions apply.

Be sure to also check out their Instagram and Twitter @field_seats

In This Issue:

The Americas :

American tourists in the border state of Tamaulipas come under fire from cartel gunmen. The incident highlights the risk posed to travelers in Mexico with Spring Break coming soon. Reactions to the attack from some US lawmakers leads to a rise in tensions between the two countries. Lastly, the war in Eastern Europe is leading tens-of-thousands of Russians to northern Mexico and the United States as the Russian military swells its ranks with mobilized troops.

Europe :

Italy struggles with managing the illegal smuggling industry that brings tens of thousands of asylum seekers to its shores each year, with an estimated 700,000 people waiting in Libya to make the journey. Despite Italy's relatively relaxed immigration laws, migrants intercepted by the Libyan Coast Guard are often returned to detention centers run by criminal organizations, where they face terrible conditions, slavery, sexual assault, torture, and murder.

BYPOL is an organization of Belarusian guerilla fighters, composed of former military members and anti-government activists. They have been actively sabotaging critical infrastructure and disrupting Russian supply lines entering Ukraine. BYPOL has claimed to have carried out 17 acts of sabotage on railways, and their digital saboteurs have been hacking into Russian and Belarusian databases and government websites, publishing the locations of Russian military equipment and troops and doxxing military officials and police online. The organization has been classified as an extremist group by Lukashenko's government, but their efforts to disrupt the war effort in Ukraine are likely to continue.

Finally, Moldova's police claim to have stopped Russian "diversionists" from causing chaos during a protest against the country's new pro-Western government, with the allegations coming after hundreds of foreign nationalists were denied entry into the country. US intelligence officials believe that actors linked to Russian intelligence plan to spark protests and civil unrest in Moldova, with the ultimate goal of changing the legitimate government to an illegal one controlled by the Russian Federation, according to Moldovan President Maia Sandu.

East Asia and Oceania:

The Salaknib exercise between the Philippine and U.S. Armies began on March 13th and will focus on territorial defense against potential foreign aggressors. The exercise indicates the Philippines' shift in military focus from counterinsurgency to external threats, particularly in response to China's increasing aggression in the South China Sea. The exercise will also incorporate lessons from the Ukrainian conflict and rely on working together with other countries, such as the United States and Japan, to confront external adversaries.

Central Asia and the Mid East:

Water riots rock Iraq this week as Iranian and Turkish built dams cause water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers to dramatically decline. Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to hold diplomatic negotiations following Chinese intervention, and Iraq has agreed to accept PRC Yuan as payment for energy exports. This marks a very sudden shift in regional dynamics, and will bear considerable watching in the weeks ahead. We may be seeing a trend for 2023 beginning to form.

Africa :

Earlier this month, Kirindera Village in the Northern Kivu Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was attacked by suspected Islamic militants affiliated with the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), resulting in the death of 19 individuals and the abduction of several others. The ADF is a militant group that operates in the eastern part of the DRC and is primarily made up of Ugandan Muslims. It has ties to Islamist extremist groups and other militant organizations in the region. Despite military operations conducted by the DRC government and the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) against the ADF since 2014, the group continues to carry out attacks and has demonstrated its ability to adapt to military pressure.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: The War Grinds On

The tense security situation in Europe continues, with speculation around possible Russian attacks in Moldova and Ukraine conducting a preemptive attack against Russian positions. The ongoing assault on Bakhmut by Russia has been reported in Ukrainian media, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. Putin's instruction to increase security around Ukraine follows a series of sabotage operations by Ukraine in both Russia and Belarus. Meanwhile, the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo have agreed to a European Union proposal to normalize their long-strained ties, but more work is needed to ensure implementation. The agreement may lead to protests in Serbia, but it is a positive step towards making progress in the medium and long term.

The PLA Pivot To Realistic Combat Training:

The Salaknib exercise, the biggest iteration to date, began on March 13th between the Philippine and U.S. Armies. The focus of the exercise is on territorial defense and scenarios involving potential foreign aggressors, which illustrates the Philippines' shift in military focus from counterinsurgency to defending the country from external threats, particularly due to China's increasingly aggressive actions in the South China Sea. The exercise also highlights the Philippines' incorporation of lessons learned from the Ukrainian conflict and the need to work together with the United States and Japan in defending its territorial boundaries.

See Also:

• A Russian fighter jet collided with and destroyed an American MQ9 drone over the Black Sea, reportedly dumping fuel on it before the collision. The US Air Force has stated that the Russian pilots' actions were extremely risky and nearly caused a crash of their own aircraft.

• The Myanmar military carried out a massacre at a monastery in Shan State, killing at least 28 villagers who were taking shelter there. Some monks were also killed in the attack, which was reportedly anticipated by many civilians who had evacuated the area beforehand.

• Nineteen people were killed in a militant attack in the North Kivu region of Congo, in the village of Kirindera, near a location where 35 people were killed in a previous attack. Although the specific group responsible has not been confirmed, the ADF is suspected to have carried out the attack, as they were responsible for the previous incident.

• During ongoing protests against France's proposed pension reform, riot police were seen attacking protesters in several French cities today. The reform, which would increase the retirement age from 62 to 64, has been met with widespread opposition and the protests have been ongoing for 51 days.

• The Crimea MFA, a branch of the Russian government, has threatened the people of Georgia on Twitter, warning of a potential invasion if they continue pro-European protests. The message alluded to the situation in Ukraine, where similar protests resulted in a war after the ousting of a pro-Kremlin president.

The Americas

Americans Ambushed in Tamaulipas 

-Brodie Kirkpatrick

On March 3rd, four Americans traveling in a white minivan came under fire in Matamoros, Tamaulipas, a city right across the border from Brownsville, Texas. The incident led to three people killed and some US lawmakers calling for military action against Mexican drug cartels. 

Ambushed

One of the Americans went to Matamoros for a cosmetic medical procedure and the other three accompanied her to split the drive. The group were traveling together in a vehicle with North Carolina license plates and were targeted just after entering the Gulf Coast city. A vehicle rammed into them as they crossed an intersection. Then multiple men wearing body armor and carrying assault rifles opened fire on the minivan from a pickup truck. A video posted to social media showed four people being loaded into the bed of the truck. One person was clearly alive but the other three appeared to be injured or dead. Additionally, a bystander was shot and killed. 

The Americans were identified as Latavia McGree, Shaheed Woodard, Eric Williams, and Zindell Brown, all of North Carolina. Woodard and Brown were killed during the ambush. Williams was shot in the leg and McGee was not seriously injured. The Americans were found and rescued on Tuesday by Mexican security forces at which point it was discovered that Brown and Woodard were deceased. Their bodies will remain in Mexico for examination before they are returned home. The survivors were escorted to the US-Mexico border and underwent medical evaluations in Texas. 

Responsibility

The perpetrators of the attack were from a section of the Gulf Cartel known as “Grupo Escorpion”, led by José Alberto García (AKA"La Kena" or "Ciclón 19"). The group is known for their brutality, specifically slaughtering civilians.  

Two days after the attack, the cartel left five men in the middle of the street, bound together and placed in front of a pickup truck containing weapons and ammunition. Inside the truck was a note claiming to be from the Gulf Cartel, saying that “(The Gulf Cartel) decided to deliver those involved and directly responsible”. The note also contained an apology and Mexican government officials do believe it to be legitimate. The five men were charged in connection with the attack on, and kidnapping of, the Americans. They were also charged in the death of the bystander that was shot during the ambush. Another man, who was guarding the house where the four were found, was charged as well. 

US and Mexican officials believe that the attack may have been caused by a case of mistaken identity. More precisely, they believe that the group may have been mistaken for Haitian robbers. Matamoros is used by some Haitians as a place to wait out their US asylum cases under Title 42 provisions. 

Call to Action  

The incident led the Mexican government to increase the security presence in the city and surrounding areas. Approximately 300 soldiers have been deployed to Matamoros and Reynosa, backed by State and Federal police officers.   

These events also led some US lawmakers and former cabinet officials to call for the use of US military personnel to counter cartels inside Mexico. Former Attorney General Bill Barr told Fox News’ Martha MacCallum that the US should use Special Operations Forces to destroy Mexican cartels similar to how they were used in Latin America; specifically Colombia. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said that he could introduce legislation that would designate nine Mexican criminal groups as foreign terrorist organizations and allow the use of military action against them if passed. Graham is joined in this potential endeavor by Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana. House Republicans Dan Crenshaw of Texas and Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia said that they would introduce a similar bill in the House. Crenshaw announced such a move in an op-ed for USA Today. 

Another Republican, House Oversight Committee Chairman Rep. James Comer, signaled that he might support such legislation as well. In an interview with Fox, he said, “My position is very clear, I believe we should have a military presence, at the very least, on the southern border if not across the border.” He brought attention to the fentanyl crisis, a deadly drug that has been flowing over the border for years. In 2021 alone, nearly 80,000 Americans died due to an overdose of fentanyl¹. 

AMLO’s War of Words Against the US

-Brodie Kirkpatrick

The recent attack on Americans in Matamoros sparked new tensions between the United States and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. The tensions were driven by remarks made by AMLO in response to proposals made by US lawmakers to allow the military to intervene in Mexico and in response to officials pressuring AMLO to fight against the trafficking of fentanyl.

Fentanyl

A visit by White House homeland security adviser Liz Sherwood-Randall led the Mexican president to deny that Mexico has a fentanyl issue in terms of both production and consumption. Sherwood-Randall was set to meet with Mexican officials to discuss the fight against the drug which has caused an epidemic of deaths. AMLO instead shifted the blame towards the United States, asking, “Why don’t they (the United States) take care of their problem of social decay?”

Despite AMLO claiming that Mexico is uninvolved in producing fentanyl, the government has previously acknowledged that the drug is produced in Mexican labs using chemicals from China. Additionally, the Mexican Army announced the seizure of over 500,000 fentanyl pills at a lab in Culiacan last month. That was the largest discovered synthetic drug lab in Mexico’s history.

Military Operations

The support of US military action by some American lawmakers was heavily criticized by AMLO. During a press conference on Friday, he said “They have the arrogance to say that if we don’t fight crime in Mexico, they’re going to pass an initiative in Congress so the armed forces of the US intervene in our territory”. He added that Mexico will not allow such action and the country denounces it entirely. AMLO’s government has referred to the proposals as an attack on Mexico's sovereignty. Additionally, Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said that he would push for Latino-Americans to pressure Congress to vote down any proposal that makes it to the floor,

Spring Break  

The Matamoros attack came just a couple of weeks before thousands of Americans flock to Mexico for spring break. The State Department has issued warnings against travel to 30 of Mexico’s 32 states. Six of those states, including Tamaulipas, are subject to “do not travel” advisories. In addition, the referenced attack caused the Texas Department of Public Safety to issue a travel warning for Americans looking to go to the country for the break. AMLO responded to these warnings by calling them nonsense and by stating that Mexico is safer than the United States. He cited the amount of American tourists that visit Mexico each year and the number of American expats that live in the country. In recent years, many Americans have been moving to coastal areas in Mexico and to the capital city. He added, “There is no issue with traveling safely through Mexico. That’s something the US citizens also know, just like our fellow Mexicans that live in the US”. 

AMLO also accused conservatives in Congress of fear mongering because “they don’t want (Mexico) to keep developing for the good of the Mexican people.” Despite his claims, the murder rate in Mexico was 28 per 100,000 people in 2020, four times that of the United States. While murders fell by 7% last year, Mexico is still set to hit a record amount of murders for any other six-year presidential administration².  

Russians At the Gates

- Brodie Kirkpatrick 

Encounters between Border Patrol agents and illegal border crossers & asylum seekers have been at record highs for the past three years. In recent months, the fear of being mobilized to fight in the invasion of Ukraine has led nearly 22,000 Russians to try and enter the United States from the southern border. Most of those Russians have been seeking asylum from the government of President Vladimir Putin, but not all of them.    

Fleeing Mobilization

Russia began partial mobilization in mid-September 2022 to supplement their invasion force in Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands (likely around 300,000) men were ordered to report to military processing centers and were integrated into the Russian military for the duration of the war. Fearful of being sent off to war, many Russians fled the country in a matter of weeks. Estimates as to how many people fled vary greatly; typically between 200,000-700,000. Those people have fled to many countries, such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Finland, and in some cases the United States.

Asylum Seekers

Data from US Customs and Border Protection shows that almost 22,000 Russians have or have tried to enter the country since October 2022. From August to January the monthly number of encounters between CBP agents and Russians tripled. From 2020 to the end of 2022, encounters increased by 4,560%. Additionally, some Russians have been granted entrance into the country under “humanitarian parole”. One Russian family that spoke to CNN said they waited at a migrant shelter in Reynosa, Mexico for 40 days before they were granted entry. During that time, there were roughly 700 other Russians in the city with the goal of entering the US. 

Unsavory Types 

Since the beginning of the invasion last year, DHS officials say that thirteen Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) agents have been caught trying to enter the country. All thirteen traveled to the US-Mexico border using the same means and routes. They flew from Russia to Turkey, and then to Cancun. Upon reaching Cancun they traveled to different border crossings in California and Arizona and gave similar stories to interviewing CBP agents. All thirteen claimed to be fleeing prosecution as independent journalists, activists, and NGO employees. At least two of them were actually tasked with spying on Russian opposition journalists once they got into the United States. During their detentions by CBP, law enforcement officials were able to determine their status as active FSB personnel. 

Other FSB agents have tried to enter the United States, but they were defectors that immediately declared their status to officials at the border. Those cases were vetted by the FBI. 

Additionally, several Russian ex-ISIS members have tried to cross the southern border. Those men were from Russia’s Caucasus regions. They were soon identified as they had been placed on wanted lists. One of them even starred in an ISIS propaganda video at one point³.  

Looking Forward

-Brodie Kirkpatrick

With Spring Break right around the corner, tourists visiting Mexico should research the areas in which they plan to visit, look for travel advisories, and be aware of their surroundings while in the country. US-Mexico tensions may continue to rise as the risk of tourism related violence persists for Americans in Mexico. Additionally, record crime levels, fentanyl production & trafficking, and the 2024 presidential elections in both countries will likely put a strain on bi-lateral relations. At the end of the day though, US military operations in Mexico, with or without the consent of the government, are unlikely. This is especially the case for as long as AMLO serves as president.   

As the war between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate we may see historically high numbers of Russians try to enter the US. The southern border is increasingly becoming regarded as the best avenue to enter the United States without a visa. Because of this, Russian government agents will likely continue to use that avenue to enter the country as well.