Bulletin From The Borderlands

01 June 2023

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Kitbag Conversations : A team of retired Marine and Army Intelligence analysts and the founders of the Croatoan Report and Kitbag Conversations, foreign policy and security affairs podcasts. The Team Leader for Bulletin From The Borderlands.

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He attends San Jose State University and is pursuing a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the assistant lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

Sino Talk : Sino Talk is China watcher with extensive experience living and studying in China. In another life, he was a Marine intelligence analyst. 

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Callisto Report: The Callisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events.

Sponsors

The Bulletin is brought you to by PB Abbate, Fieldseats.com, and JFT Defense Solutions.

As you likely know, Lethal Minds Journal shares common ancestry with Patrol Base Abbate, one of the most impactful veteran’s outreach organizations in America. One of the ways in which we connect is through a love of the written word, a belief in the power of good writing to help give a voice to people who need to be heard, and a desire to help service members and vets connect through self-expression. This summer, Sebastian Junger, award winning writer of War, Tribe, and Freedom (amongst others), will join the Patrol Base Abbate Book Club in Montana for their annual Return to Base Program. From June 22nd-26th, members of the Book Club will spend a few days discussing literature while they reconnect with nature and other veterans at Patrol Base Abbate’s PB in Thompson Falls, Montana. Details about eligibility are at https://www.pbabbate.org/rtb-application-0-0.

Fieldseats.com is an e-commerce, federally licensed firearms dealer that provides virtual reviews on brand new firearms. At the end of the review they give away the firearm being reviewed to an attendee!

Each item reviewed is given away for free as a part of their promotion for purchasing what they call a “Field Review.” Currently, they’ve got Field Reviews up ranging from $20 for a brand new Smith & Wesson M&P Shield 2.0 to $65 for a new IWI Galil ACE GEN II. Each review is limited to around 38 people, so your chances of winning the giveaway is that much higher!

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JFT Defense Solutions

At JFT Defense Solutions, our mission is to provide unparalleled protective and intelligence services to our clients, ensuring their safety and security in an ever-changing world. We strive to deliver customized, confidential solutions that exceed expectations, utilizing our expertise in risk assessment, threat analysis, and intelligence gathering to mitigate potential risks and provide proactive solutions. Our commitment to excellence, professionalism, and integrity is paramount in all our operations, and we continuously strive to stay ahead of emerging threats to provide the highest level of service to our clients. Our goal is to provide peace of mind, allowing our clients to focus on their business and personal pursuits with the knowledge that their safety and security are in the most capable hands.

JFT Defense Solutions aims to be the new benchmark for private security and intelligence firms. We achieve this by working collaboratively and effectively as a team to provide the highest duty of care to our clients, by being adaptable to changing circumstances enabling us to provide tailored solutions to our diverse client industries, and by staying at the forefront of the industry by utilizing innovative technologies and techniques. Currently, JFT Defense Solutions offers turnkey security services including executive protection, site security, risk mitigation services, threat intelligence, ad-hoc intelligence reporting, and much more. Additionally, JFT Defense Solutions is the sole distributor for Trigger’s Reports risk and asset management monitoring software for the western hemisphere allowing them to bring cutting-edge data-driven risk analytics and monitoring to markets that need it most.  

In This Issue:

The Americas :

Ecuador’s President is ruling by decree until August. An impeachment attempt on President Guillermo Lasso by the country’s legislature led to their dismissal. While not a 1:1 comparison, the situation is causing some to look back on Peru’s former President Pedro Castillo when he attempted a coup in December. Also, as migrants led by criminal organizations continue to flow through Central America, some in the Biden administration are supporting a proposed deployment of US troops to a piece of key terrain in the region. This comes after the end of the COVID-era immigration enforcement provision Title 42.

Europe :

Ukraine is still preparing to launch its 2023 counteroffensive against Russian forces. Until that happens the country is continuing to procure weapons and equipment from the West to outfit their forces. On that subject, US President Biden recently said that he would support our European allies training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 fighter jet platform. This is seen by many as opening the door for Ukraine to eventually receive F-16s from non-US NATO allies. Additionally, the Russian invasion has led to tensions between the country and the West in terms of partnering on space missions. The war has already damaged a joint relationship looking to the stars that has taken decades to build.

East Asia and Oceania:

Tensions and provocations were the theme in Northeast Asia. North Korea failed to put its first spy satellite using the country’s new Chollima-1 satellite launch rocket. North Korea quickly stated the launch failed but said they will conduct a second launch after it fixed instability issues in both the engine and fuel system. The Japanese Defense Minister is planning to meet his Australian, U.S., and Philippine counterparts on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The talks will likely be centered on how to increase cooperation between the countries as a hedge against Chinese aggression in the region. Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu is expected to also meet with his Japanese counterpart during Shangri-La as well. The talks will include talks about the incursions by Chinese Coast Guard vessels into waters around the Senkaku Islands and the various joint naval exercises conducted by China and Russia around Japan. Chinese leader Xi Jinping also chaired the first meeting of the Central National Security Commission after he embarked on this third term. Xi emphasized that China is facing several national security issues that have become “more complex and more difficult.” Xi also said China needs to be ready to deal with worst-case and most extreme scenarios so they can withstand “high winds and waves and even perilous storms.” Xi made these comments as a tacit acknowledgement that the Chinese Communist Party’s upper echelons understand the continued fallout of tensions with the United States and will likely continue.  

In Southeast Asia, the Japanese, Philippine, and United States Coast Guards began their first trilateral joint exercise off the coast of the Philippines. The exercise comes as both Japan and the United States sought to increase defense and security cooperation with the Philippines to help it better protect its territory from China. Vietnam and China are currently locked in a standoff in Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone due to the country’s expanding drilling operations in the South China Sea (SCS). Both China and the Philippines also deployed buoys to various islands and reefs in the SCS to bolster their claims to the features. Senior defense officials will gather in Singapore for the Shangri-La Dialogue to discuss regional issues such as tensions in the region and China’s new security initiatives. The Move Forward and Pheu Thai political parties will form an opposition government after they received the highest votes in the recent elections. However, the military appointed Senate and key backers will likely have some say in the makeup of the government. 

In South Asia, domestic political tensions were the norm with the Pakistani government deciding to try former Prime Minister Imran Khan in military court due to allegations he planned and executed the unrest on May 9^th. Defense treaties was a significant theme in the Oceania region with Papua New Guinea signing a defense security agreement with the United States. However, a similar defense agreement with Australia has faced some delays due to certain wordings and provisions in the document. The defense agreements come as both countries are reorienting their focus on the region to blunt Chinese diplomatic and security efforts.

Central Asia and the Mid East:

Tensions between Iran and Afghanistan have faced a new high after multiple fights took place between each country’s border authorities. These tensions have been exacerbated by issues they face. In Iran’s case, a decades-long drought has plagued the country; as has food and economic insecurity. In Afghanistan, the Taliban takeover shocked the economy. This has led to starvation and the failure of Afghanistan’s public health system.

Africa:

Nigeria has a new president, turning the country in a different direction politically speaking. The 2023 elections came as the country is facing multiple challenges including corruption, insurgency, and economic inequality. The new president, Bola Tinubu, has placed a particular importance on the development of infrastructure; just as he did during his time as the governor of Lagos State.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: Standing By in the East

The world is eagerly waiting for the Ukrainian counteroffensive to begin. Many believed that it would begin in the spring, but it now appears the campaign will launch this summer. President Zelenskyy has been using this time to procure additional munitions and equipment for his country’s armed forces. This also comes as Russia has fully captured the city of Bakhmut, which seemingly used up all of their major offensive capabilities for the time being.  

See Also:

• Recep Tayyip Erdogan has won his bid for re-election in Turkey.

• The US House just passed a bill to suspend the debt limit until 2025 which will avoid a debt default if it passes the Senate and is signed by Biden.

• Ukrainian forces are stepping up their attacks inside Russia with drone attacks on Moscow and raids inside border regions.

• The internal conflict in Sudan continues with no clear end in sight, killing and wounding thousands.

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick

Mutual Death in Ecuador 

On May 17th, Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso invoked a constitutional measure that dissolved the National Assembly. The measure, known as muerte cruzada (mutual death) removes all members of the assembly from their seats until new representatives are elected. This also allows Lasso to rule by decree until new elections, which are planned to take place on August 20th, 2023. The president was facing an impeachment attempt by the legislature, his second since taking office in 2021.

Who Is Guillermo Lasso?

Lasso was born to a middle-class family in Guayaquil in 1955. He began his career with a part-time job at the Guayaquil Stock Exchange and went on to hold positions such as the head of operations in Ecuador for Coca-Cola and a member of the Board of Directors of the Andean Development Corporation. 

In 2012, he founded the Creating Opportunities party (CREO). The party is center-right holding an ideology of liberal conservatism/classical liberalism. Lasso ran as the party’s candidate in the presidential elections of 2013 and 2017, losing both. 

In 2021, he defeated Andrés Arauz in a run-off election with 52.36% of the vote. Arauz is an economist and ally of former president Rafael Correa who represented the Citizen Revolution Movement, a left-wing populist and socialist party that is led by Correa. Lasso’s victory against Arauz was a rebuke of the “pink tide”, a political wave that has led to left-wing populists being elected president across Latin America in recent years.      

Facing Impeachment

When Rafael Correa was in office, he introduced a new constitution that made impeaching a president more difficult. In October 2021, an investigation by the International Consortium of Journalists found that Lasso had at some point established offshore financial accounts to allegedly hide his real net worth. Two months later, a vote was held in the National Assembly to hold an impeachment trial based on the investigation. However, only 51 of the 137 assemblymen voted in favor of holding a trial, therefore dismissing the attempt. 

In March 2023, Lasso was accused of embezzlement and impeachment hearings began after they were approved by Ecuador’s constitutional court. Opposition lawmakers, who hold power in the assembly, say that Lasso had knowledge of public corruption being committed by his brother-in-law, Danilo Carrera. After a series of hearings on the matter, 88 of 137 representatives, 116 who were present at the time, voted in favor of beginning an impeachment trial against Lasso. At the end of the trial, 92 members of the assembly would need to vote in favor of impeachment in order for Lasso to be removed from office.    

Muerte Cruzada

The measure was put into place in the 2008 constitution, allowing the president to dissolve the National Assembly and temporarily rule by decree. However, the constitution mandates that muerte cruzada can only be invoked before a vote takes place at the end of an impeachment and a new general election must be held within six months of enactment. 

President Lasso said he enacted the measure due to an alleged abuse of impeachment power by the legislature. Head of the Ecuadorian Armed Forces, Brig. Gen. Nelson Bolivar Praño Rodriguez, recognized Lasso’s right to dissolve the assembly in accordance with the constitution. He also stated that the military was ready to respond to violent protests, in the event that they break out. In response, President Correa’s party called the move illegal, which is ironic considering Correa’s support of the 2008 constitution that put the measure into place. In an interview with The Washington Post on May 19th, Lasso said that he does not intend to run in the next presidential election that will be held alongside the National Assembly election¹. 

Advocating for Forces in Panama

Brodie Kirkpatrick 

Some officials in the Biden administration are allegedly advocating for a deployment of US troops to the Darien Gap in order to curb human smuggling. These officials believe that an expansion of an existing US Army mission in the region can stem the flow of human smuggling across the US-Mexico border. 

What is the Darien Gap

Inside the borderlands of Colombia and Panama lies a stretch of land connecting South and Central America called the Isthmus of Darien. Around the isthmus is a 66 mile (106 km) long gap separating the Pan-American Highway called the Darien Gap. The area is filled with triple canopy jungles, rainforests, rivers, and mountains; making it one of the most dangerous areas to traverse in the world. This explains why there is such a large gap in the highway, as building a road in the area would be expensive. Despite this reality, the Darien Gap is a major thoroughfare for migrants making their way to the US-Mexico border. Experienced human smugglers are needed to cross the gap, overcoming natural obstacles and evading authorities. This makes for a very lucrative business for criminal groups which effectively control the area.

In recent years, the Darien Gap has become a more popular avenue to eventually reach the United States. This is due in part to the increase of people seeking to cross the US-Mexico border originating from places other than Mexico and Central America. These migrants come from around the world, including South America, the Caribbean, India, China, and Africa. According to the Panamanian government, over 248,000 people traversed the gap with the goal of eventually reaching the United States in 2022. By the end of this year, the United Nations believes that number could reach 400,000. This year has also seen an increase in children crossing the gap. According to UNICEF, over 25,000 minors traveled through the area from January to April 2023, an eightfold increase from the same period last year. Many of these migrants do not have the option to simply fly to Mexico as they once did since the country has made it more difficult to receive a visa in recent years. 

The human smuggling trade is controlled by multiple criminal groups, such as dissident groups of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the Gulf Clan, both based in Colombia. The groups routinely rob and sexually assault those that they smuggle through the gap, in addition to other crimes.

Stemming the Flow 

US forces are already deployed in the region. An Army Security Forces Assistance Brigade (SFAB) is training and advising Colombian and Panamanian security forces. Officials in the administration are advocating for an expansion of that mission that focuses on curbing smuggling in the Darien Gap. An expansion could include training in border security, counternarcotics. counter smuggling, planning, and logistics. There is also speculation that American troops could build infrastructure\for Panama's National Border Service (SENAFRONT). 

This comes as the Commander of US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) General Laura Richardson visited the region, including the Darien Gap, last month. According to an unnamed official within Colombia’s National Police, per NBC News, Richardson met with top members of the organization. This unnamed official said that while Richardson did not disclose a timeline or number for US troops deploying in the area, the National Police are expecting the arrival of more American forces soon. Colombian security forces already work with personnel from the DEA and Homeland Security Investigations².   

Looking Forward

Guillermo Lasso is the first Ecuadorian president to enact muerte cruzada. This has the potential to set a precedent for future presidents in the country. Considering his incredibly low approval rating, and the political left’s former control of the National Assembly, it will be interesting to see how the general election plays out. The crisis on the US southern border will continue to be an issue for the foreseeable future. Additionally, President Biden seems hesitant to take action against human trafficking in the region; thus the likelihood of a US military mission in the Darien Gap is not clear. As long as SENAFRONT remains the only real government authority in the Darien Gap it will remain the main avenue for smugglers in the region.