Bulletin From The Borderlands

30 September 2022

Sep 30, 2022

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Meridian News

New avenues for revenue drive shifts in investment across Central and South America’s drug cartels. Synthetic narcotics grow to become a staple of the cartel inventory. Government personnel freelancing narco violence and sanctioned death squad activity shakes what little trust remains between the people and government of Mexico. Haiti continues to collapse. Hurricane Ian hammers the Caribbean and southern United States.

Europe : Covered in this issue by Croatoan Report

Putin’s three day war in Ukraine drags on past its two hundredth day of fighting. Ukrainian forces have begun to encircle Lyman and other key towns across Severodonetsk and Luhansk. In Russian held territory, occupation forces are holding referendums to annex the territory into Russia. Inside Russia, the government’s mobilization of conscripts to fight in Ukraine has created a refugee crisis as Russian men of fighting age flee the country. A series of blasts have caused major breaches in the Russia-to-Europe Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. In Italy, fascist politician Giorgina Meloni has taken power.

East Asia and Oceania : Covered in this issue by Good Political

China’s government is rocked by a mysterious confluence of events leading up to the Party Congress. As China stumbles, its regional opponents turn to their decades old ties to the United States to shore up their security positions. Australia suffers a mass hacking attack.

Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by S2 Forward

Civil unrest has ripped across Iran this month, following the murder by beating of a Kurdish woman by the Iranian morality police. What came next is the largest, and most violent protest against the Iranian Islamic Regime in decades. Anti government protests are now occurring openly in dozens of Iranian cities. In Iraq, turmoil over al Sadr’s departure from the government continues. Militia forces continue to wage running street battles across Iraq’s major cities.

Africa : Covered in this issue by Analyze Educate

Instability is the name of the game this month. Ethiopia’s Tigray minority is picking back up their arms. Nigeria, hampered by rising inflation and economic woes faces mass disruption and insurgency. Civil war seems to be a persistent risk in the region, particularly in Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Nigeria, as well as up and down the African West Coast.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: Transnational Crime and Instability

The fallout from the Russo Ukrainian war, and Russian interference globally is beginning to rear its ugly head. In Africa, inflation and Wagner interference is beginning to drive civil unrest. In the Mid East, food and water shortages are degrading the viability of only recently stabilizing governments in Egypt and Iraq. Political violence in Iran has brought Iranian civilians out for the longest and most successful protests in the regime’s history.

Russia’s campaign in Ukraine has now successfully destabilized Russia, as well as its neighbors. Mass mobilization has caused a refugee panic across the Russian Federation, as thousands of Russian men flee the draft. In the Americas, spurred on by weakening economic systems across Central and South America, drug cartels draw in new fighters and move into new revenue streams. Based on our analysis from the last few issues, we assess that it is likely for many of these global issues to begin to boil over and begin to resolve themselves, one way or another. This level of instability is not sustainable long term.

The Long Term Concern: Getting Back To Stable

It is unclear what stability will look like. Russia’s campaign in Ukraine seems to have largely failed. Russian leadership is now openly discussing the practicalities of using a tactical nuclear weapon. We assess this threat as highly unlikely, but it is a marked sign of how desperate the regime is becoming. In China, Xi Ji Ping may be facing a leadership challenge for the first time in his career as Chinese Premier. In Iran, the government may have finally gone too far. The murder of a Kurdish woman by the morality police has resulted in tens of thousands clashing with Iranian authorities to protest draconian Islamic law in the country.

The question now, is how does the world readjust? Expect to see significant turmoil internationally for the next few months. The follow on effects from the collapse of one, or possibly two, members of the Russia-China-Iran partnership will have major ramifications both in their local spheres of influence, and around the world.

See Also:

Nord Stream 1 and 2 appear to have been sabotaged, irrevocably damaging the two pipelines.
Putin declares Kherson, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia to be independent republics, and announces plans to annex them into Russia.
Mass protests have erupted across Iran in response to the murder of a Kurdish Iranian woman. The Iranian government has been unable to put down the rioters, and has shelled Kurdish held territory in Northern Iraq.
The Armenia-Azerbaijan cease fire has failed…again.
An American servicemember and their wife have been arrested as Russian spies.

The Americas

Move Aside Cocaine, Cartels Are Here for Limes

When someone mentions Mexican cartels, things like cocaine, violent crime, cocaine, and famous kingpins like Pablo Escobar and El Chapo tend to come to mind. However, some of Mexico’s most notorious cartels have set their sights on a new business opportunity - Limes. Those little green fruits you squeeze that flavor your margaritas are the latest target of cartel extortion.

An ongoing territorial war in the Western state of Michoacán, where 27% of Mexico’s produce is farmed, between the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and the Cárteles Unidos (United Cartels, an alliance between other cartels) has prevented farmers from planting and harvesting their crops. Due to the smaller harvest, and cartel extortion in the region, lime prices have skyrocketed by 235% since 2021. According to farmers, the cartels are also charging farmers extortion fees for every step of the process driving prices up even further.

We saw similar activity in 2021 with cartels holding the avocado industry hostage using the same tactics. After the Mexican Military’s failure to respond and protect farmers, avocado farmers formed their own armed militia known as “Pueblos Unidos” to expel cartels and protect their families and livelihood. Lime producers have followed suit in a smaller capacity but with extortion continuing and prices climbing, it seems they are yet to make any real impact1.

Business Savvy Traffickers Are Producing Synthetic Drugs in South America

South and Central America’s drug trade is expanding to synthetics after decades of domination by cocaine and marijuana. Synthetic drugs are exactly what they sound like, drugs created in laboratories designed to mimic the effects of traditional narcotics, or in some cases provide the user an entirely new high. You’ve probably heard of Ecstasy, methamphetamine, Fentanyl, Ketamine, and maybe even Captagon - these drugs are integral to South America’s flourishing market, and its traffickers.

The focus appears to come more than anything due to accessibility to the components that making these drugs requires. For example, Mexican meth producers leverage a wide array of chemicals that aren’t illegal to import or export, massively reducing the risk and increasing overall availability of these ingredients. It also likely drives down production costs as there's less risk for suppliers as well. For the example of Ecstasy one of the major draws is the fact that trafficking using legal methods like postal services is easier than ever. Shipments are small, but the volume and ease of distribution makes it worthwhile.

South American traffickers are growing increasingly business savvy as their traditional markets grow saturated. From exposing seasoned users to new drugs to enticing new markets through economical trafficking and production methods, their purse is in no danger of running dry. Latin American drugs are finding their way around the world, especially nations in the Pacific like Australia with other ties to south east Asia. As the issue grows more prominent across borders, the international community may take steps to make distribution even more difficult from more advanced package screening to criminalizing certain chemicals used in production. For the time being, traffickers will continue to grow their business and reap the benefits2.

Mexico’s Missing Students Implicate Government in Mass Murder Cover-Up

In 2014, 43 Mexican college students were abducted by police on order of a local mayor in Iguala, nobody knows exactly what happened next, but authorities believe they were turned over to a gang, executed, burnt, and bodies dumped into a river according to Mexico’s attorney general. The murders, and revelation of the students’ fate sparked massive anti-government protests across the country.

The mayor who ordered the capture, Jose Luis Abarca, received multiple homicide charges after his arrest in November of 2014 and the special prosecutor who led the investigation, resigned just a few days ago. There are indications this is due to tampering and corruption in the case. From accusations that the special prosecutor was not receiving adequate resources to collect evidence, to leaked documents indicating 21 arrest orders for suspects were dropped without explanation. Of those orders dropped 16 were military members who were under the command of a (now retired) general who commanded the base in Iguala at the time of the students’ disappearance.

These findings seem to shed light on military involvement in the abduction as well as further collusion with local gangs and deeply embedded corruption to cover it all up. The special prosecutor’s retirement also raises questions about frustrations with the political environment and further for the families searching for closure around their children's disappearances so many years ago3.

Hurricane Ian’s Impact on Florida and The Caribbean

Hurricane Ian touched down in Florida as a category-4 Hurricane, one step below the most powerful storm classification after ravaging the Caribbean. The island nation of Cube was left entirely without power when its electrical grid collapsed after the storm - not to mention the damage from flooding and high winds. Puerto Rico was in the same boat with over 500,000+ people left without power following Hurricane Fiona, a storm that landed mid-September. The West Coast of Florida is being ravaged by the storm as I write this.

Widespread flooding, and winds sustaining between 111-129 mph and subsequent damage to critical infrastructure primarily in Naples and Fort Myers. It’s worth mentioning that while winds are sustaining between 111mph and 129mph, they are gusting well above 150+mph in some areas. Nearly 2 million Floridians are without power and record storm surge (flooding from rising sea levels) was reported in both areas mentioned - up to 12 feet in some areas.

Hurricane Ian will retain its strength as it creeps across the state toward the city of Orlando and off the coast. Typically with storms like this, the location of the center of the storm, commonly referred to as the ‘eye’, dictates its strength. As the storm crosses the land its power should be reduced significantly as it is unable to draw more energy from the churning ocean, pressure, and temperature conditions that allow it to gain strength. The citizens of Florida are forced to endure the storm until it passes, at which point the full damage and impact will be revealed4.

Haiti: Gang Blockades, Mass Starvation, and Violence

Last issue we touched on Haiti’s slogging devolvement into an epicenter for gang violence, culminating with the Prime Minister’s plea to the international community for assistance in curbing the violence plaguing the failed state. Haiti’s gangs continue gunfighting in the streets, but have begun engaging in an even more damaging campaign to fully restrict fuel flow to the island from Haiti’s main fuel terminal.

The gangs initiated the blockade of Verreux Terminal after the government’s announcement earlier this month that it would cancel fuel subsidies, driving the price of fuel up for citizens. Gangs have since blocked fuel terminal’s gates and are limiting the outflow of fuel in protest. Critical infrastructure like telecom and hospitals are nearing full scale shut-down due to the lack of fuel to keep them operating. Further, World Food Program officials indicated that the price of a basic food basket, a common unit to measure inflation, has increased 52% this year and announced expectations that food insecurity will increase surpassing the already record high 4.5 million affected. Haiti’s U.N. envoy described the situation best as “An economic crisis, a gang crisis, and a political crisis have converged into catastrophe,”

The people of Haiti are in an impossible position. The combination of increasing violence and lack of security alongside a mass food insecurity makes it more and more difficult for the people of Haiti to receive any type of assistance. Organizations are only willing to take so much risk in helping unstable and violent nations escape dire situations like that of Haiti. If the government is unable to regain control over the Verreux terminal, the result could be catastrophic for the nation and its suffering people5.

Western and Eastern Europe

Russian Mobilization in Context (LOL)

During Russian President Putin's nearly 20 minute televised announcement of “partial mobilization” in which 300,000 (RUMINT indicates that the number could be 1.3 million, with 300k being deployed as soon as possible) Russians between the ages of 18-60 are required to fight in Ukraine under the “Special Military Operation”, Russia faced national level protests against the decision. Flights out of the country skyrocketed while the top google search became “how to break and arm”, illustrating the frustration among the Russian people. Internally within Russia, thousands took the street to protest the announcement. However, nearly 3,000 have been detained leading some men being arrested, handed a draft notice card, and sent straight to the nearest military mobilization center. Russian civilians chanted “Send Putin to the trenches!” and “no to war!” as local authorities rounded up men and women alike. In Russia, it is illegal to speak out against the war, the military, or Putin or else face detainment and a large legal fine.

“It is better not to take a conscription letter than to die in a foreign land as a war criminal. It is better to run away from criminal mobilization than to be crippled and then bear responsibility in the court for participating in the war of aggression.”
-Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, in response to Russian internal unrest.

In neighboring Former Soviet States, hundreds of thousands of civilians have fled seeking refuge. Within Central Asia, anywhere between 5-10 thousands of Russians seek asylum while the Baltic States and Georgia close their borders and refuse humanitarian status. In response, Russian reserves have been deployed to the border in an effort to collect fleeing males and redirect them to the Ukrainian front. Outside of an assumed exodus, two notable shootings have taken place, one at a recruiting center and another at a local school. In the Siberian region of Irkutsk, a gunman entered a recruitment office and executed the local officer in charge of mobilization; illustrating the frustration of the Russian people. Alternatively, a school shooting in Izhevsk, 600 miles away from Moscow, a gunmen with a swastika on his shirt and a self proclaimed “Nazi” opened fire on a classroom, killing 17. However, As Russian authorities continue to appoint Ukrainian as a Nazi safe haven, this isolated incident could be seen as an insider attack to shock the average Russian into supporting the war. Within historic militant regions inside Russia’s Islamic backyard, Chechens and Dagestanis have assisted in riots and partisan activity against Russia’s military reserves and Kremlin appointment self-government.

Russia mobilizes disinterested conscripts to enter the meat grinder, conditions on the Russian front continue to be capitalized on by the Ukrainian propaganda machine. Ukrainian intelligence continues to intercept, and distribute phone calls from Russian soldiers to their friends and family back home. Reportedly, Russian combatants are no longer giddy with an emotion comparable to delight, and instead are replaced with terror, uncertainty and anxiety. As the Ukrainian counter offensive continues to shatter Russian lines, an increasing number of Russian soldiers are forgetting who they are, what they stand to gain in Ukraine, and are instead fighting for personal survival. Newly conscripted Russians entering military training are given two weeks of a very, very watered down crash course for combat. Images have appeared on the internet showing young Russians being issued rusted out, Soviet era AK-47’s and Second World War era helmets. However, It is likely these conscripts are being issued simple tools in order to acclimate themselves with their issued military gear before heading to the front. There are likely more modern equipment within Belarus or Russian occupied Ukrainian regions. Ultimately, mobilization is widely unpopular within Russia and is likely to fracture the already teetering power.

Tired Words From a Tired Grunt

According to an intercepted phone call from Ukrainian intelligence, a young Russian soldier in Kharkov told his father that he and his comrades have “nowhere to run” as the Ukrainian counter offensive continues. Keep in mind that the Ukrainian authorities have been accused by both Russian and international authorities of falsifying intercepted phone calls to be used for propaganda and motivational purposes for their forces.

“Everything’s bad, pop. We’re losing, definitely, on top of that. I’m telling you, seriously, you know how many injured we have? We have nowhere to run. They just keep advancing, advancing, advancing.”

The phone call comes as both Ukraine and Russia publish content appearing to normalize the suffering of enemy forces or emphasize their demoralized status as part of a larger information war that the two sides have been waging for domestic and international audiences. Since the opening days of September, their rapid counteroffensive continues in the northeastern Kharkov region where its forces have reclaimed thousands of square miles of territory Russia previously held. Additionally, Russian news outlets commenting on their activities qualify their retrograde as a “regrouping of forces”. Ukrainian forces claim to have captured a plethora of Russian military equipment in liberated towns and villages while video evidence illustrates that Russian occupiers abandoned their positions moments before Ukraine arrived.

Regarding the offensive, Pentagon Spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters on Tuesday:

“Ukraine’s counteroffensive so far is no surprise to anyone other than Putin and his forces. Certainly, since the beginning of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine, we’ve seen the Ukrainians demonstrate a remarkable adaptability in their ability to use their warfighting capabilities to great effect, so it’s not surprising to us that they have pushed as quickly as they have. They’ve also, again, shown a remarkable ability to take advantage of opportunities that present themselves on the battlefield, and the current counteroffensive in Kharkiv is no exception to that.”

On 23 September, a leaked conversation between an infantryman identified as a Junior Sergeant and an unidentified officer discussed the situation in Luhansk. During the call, the Sergeant illustrated logistical issues revolving around appropriate ammunition distribution, food/water and equipment to repair damaged vehicles. "There is nowhere to go, they are everywhere!" said Konstantinov, but the officer stated that he and his comrades needed to hold their "position and attack!" or face consequences. The soldier can be heard audibly grieving through the stereo as he asked how they can defeat their adversary. This is a common thought amongst Russian soldiers as Ukraine retakes ground in a lighting war fashion and Russian supply lines collapse. Putin and his counterparts reiterate their mission inside Ukraine is to “eliminate Nazis” and to “reincorporate Nova Russia (new Russia)”. However, Russian forces are burnt out, tired and with the prospect of death at their door, are unsure what steps to take next.

Nova Russia Just Dropped

Within Moscow, billboards line the streets stating "Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson - Russia!". On 27 September, a forceful Referendum within the occupied terrified voting to join Russia has concluded in Russian controlled areas of Kherson, and Zaporizhzhyia, as well as Donetsk and Luhansk. The outcome was widely predicted by both Ukrainian and international authorities as world leaders knew Russia would skew the voters to their favor both by force or coercion.

Here are the results per state sponsored Russian media:

- Kherson: 97% vote in favor of joining Russia

- Zaporizhzhia: 98% vote in favor of joining Russia

- Donetsk: 98% vote in favor of joining Russia

- Luhansk: 98% vote in favor of joining Russia

The United Nations and Ukraine stated that it would not cede any land to Russia and the vote would be deemed illegal. In the weeks leading to the referendum, Russia claimed they would allow the people of ethnic Russian descent and Ukrainian alike to vote for their future as an independent entity, separate from both Moscow and Kiev. However, as the occupied territories and four oblasts (as well as Crimea) outline pre-invasion goal lines, incorporation into Russia was always the end state. Going back into history, this region of Ukraine has been known as Nova Russia. New Russia as the frontier against the West; be it crusaders, Napoleon or Germany.

According to Russian media outlet RIA, the Russian Parliament will vote on annexation on 4 October. Rumors within the Russian government indicate that Putin may make the decree sooner than expected. Once these regions are incorporated into Russia, any NATO or Ukrainian strike could be considered an attack on Russia proper. It can be assessed that the partial mobilization was a short term solution to meet combat requirements as well. IF these areas are attacked by Ukraine within their counter offensive, this may give Russia the ammunition to declare a full mobilization and declaration of war.

Speaking on the topic, Dmitry Medvedev, the Deputy Chairman of Russia and former President reiterated warnings from President Putin that the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine is “not a bluff”. He stated that Putin's claim is “not a bluff” and would use nuclear weapons to defend themselves and his people, including those within the newly annexed regions.

“I believe that NATO will not directly intervene in the conflict even in this situation. After all, the security of Washington, London, Brussels is much more important for the North Atlantic Alliance than the fate of a dying Ukraine that no one needs. Overseas and European demagogues are not going to perish in a nuclear apocalypse. Therefore, they will swallow the use of any weapon in the current conflict.” - Medvedev

It is estimated that Russia has lost 50,000 men during the war in Ukraine. However, as it stands, Russia gained roughly two million women within the annexation. Thousands of Ukrainians have been forcefully removed from their homes by Russian authorities and replaced by external civilians to assist in the referendum elections. It is understood that Russia lost a significant amount of their military aged youth and equipment in the six month plus war. Additionally, Russia (as well as Ukraine) are a population in decline as the youth flee to the west. Idealistic and indoctrinated Russian military members could take between 10 to 15 years to recoup their equipment and military losses. However, As we have seen in Izium and Bucha, the Russian soldier is not shy from taking advantage of the Ukrainian woman and it is likely that “refugees” from the occupied regions would assist in replenishing Russia’s losses.

Make Italy Great Again?

A coalition that includes two far-right parties has won a near-complete tally of votes in the 2022 Italian general election. The result jibes with predictions throughout the month that the right would sail to victory following an increased interest in conversative politics in Italy. Opponents warn it could push Italy into an illiberal bloc with Poland and Hungary who ran on a platform of no immigration, national identity and a large anti-European Union movement. The new prime minister and the first female prime minister in Italian history is now the figurehead of the most right wing party of Italy since Mussolini in the second world war.

Her name? Giorgina Meloni, and her Fratelli d'Italia party.

Meloni during her victory speech stated:

“If we are called to govern this nation, we will do it for everyone, we will do it for all Italians and we will do it with the aim of uniting the people [of this country]. Italy chose us,” she said. “We will not betray [the country] as we never have. This is the time for being responsible, particularly complex. We represent God, country and family. This is a night of pride for the Brothers of Italy, but it is a starting point, not a finish line.”

Fratelli d'Italia appears to have emerged with the most votes of any party in a fragmented system. If confirmed as prime minister, Meloni would face immediate tests at home and in Europe. Typical Italian government lasts no more than 400 days; as Italy is a large contributor to the economic and military system in Europe. Additionally, YouTube removed Fratelli d'Italia and Meloni’s victory speech for not following community guidelines, but it was quickly restored by citing a “mistake”. Italian nationals who voted for the far-right party believe YouTube and other social media outlets have been actively suppressing any news on the election. Their reasoning is that these outlets support a more center-left ideology and reiterated that the election is why this issue needs to be resolved.

East Asia and Oceania

Fake Coup

In late September, social media went wild for a few days over what many were calling a coup to depose Chinese President Xi Jinping. These reports were entirely false, with some very basic and vague details causing the hysteria that led even mainstream sources like Newsweek and Pulitzer prize winning analyst Laurie Garrett to report on the nothingness. These things happen, more often than not, in smaller open-source communities. But to dupe the experts? Let's examine.

Many cited an aircraft blackout, with civilian flights seemingly grounded over Asia. First, it's important to note that many flight trackers have unreliable coverage over certain regions, including much of Asia. However, comparing the flight radars a week before to the day of shows nothing abnormal about civilian flights over China.

Flight tracking as of September 18th, approximately one week before

Flight tracking as of September 24th, the day of.

There was also reporting that People’s Liberation Army forces were on the move in several locations around the country. Especially around Beijing, the capital of China. While this is less easily verified, due to the media exchange with Chinese citizens being minimal and the Chinese government being unreliable. However, there have been videos of PLA transport vehicles and armored personnel carriers moving from Huanlai County and ending in Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province. It is not unusual for the military to be moving, especially in China during such a tumultuous time between them and Taiwan, but even more-so, there are several credible on the ground westerners living in Beijing who note that everything was completely normal and if anything was happening, it was happening unbeknownst to the citizens of the city. Der Spiegel correspondent Georg Fahrion visited several major Chinese political centers throughout the city to show nothing abnormal in his sarcastic thread:

Georg Fahrion @schorselysees

Today in Beijing, I investigated the #chinacoup so you don’t have to. At considerable personal risk, I ventured out to some neuralgic key points in the city. Disturbing finds. Brace yourselves. /1

As far as President Xi Jinping’s absence from the public eye, many speculate it is due to covid quarantine after his visit with Russian President Vladmir Putin and other world leaders in Uzbekistan. Many have seen his absence as proof he has been placed on house arrest after removal from office. This is unconfirmed, purely speculative, and almost surely untrue. There have been no reports from western intelligence services or any credible leaks whatsoever to determine that as likely.

Some reports have also suggested General Li Qiaoming as the coup leader. General Qiaoming was Commander of the Northern Theater Command and he was elected to the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in 2017. There is no legitimate proof that he is leading a coup. China has, however, been undergoing a series of corruption purges on public officials, which could have been the reason behind the speculative rumors so far. While these purges are often common for sophisticated communist-alligned countries, it is not to correlate with a coup d’etat or the overthrow of President Xi Jinping.

Xi Jinping is predicted to win a third term as the sitting leader of the Chinese Communist Party in China within days6.

Australia Hacked

Australian Telecom company « Optus » was hacked recently. The private information of 9.8 million customers, 40% of Australia’s population, was stolen. Marking one of Australia’s biggest ever hacks.

On the 26th of September the hacker posted anonymously in a forum, releasing the information of 10,200 people. He demanded 1 Million USD or he would continue to release information daily.

However, the next day, he appeared to back out.
« Too many eyes. We will not sale data to anyone, » was posted on the forum as well. « Sorry too 10,200 Australian whos data was leaked, »

The post continued to claim that all the information stolen had been deleted. Though all the posts, including the original ransom message, were done anonymously, cybersecurity experts believe them to be authentic to the hacker.

Stolen was customers' names, birth dates, phone numbers, addresses, driver's licence information and passport numbers, and reportedly even medicare numbers.

After the breach, Australian state and Federal governments have requested that Optus is « responsible for paying for the costs and the implications of this for customers, whether it’s the replacement of a licence, whether it’s the replacement of a passport, or other necessary pieces of ID, »

Optus hasn’t really responded to that aspect, but they have said that for 1 year they will pay for affected customers credit to be monitored.

Australia’s cyber security is years behind what it should be, and many are saying these things were bound to happen7.

Joint Oceania Maritime Support Initiative

The Oceania Maritime support Initiative OMSI; Is a secretary of defense program that leverages DOD assets transiting the region to improve maritime security and maritime domain awareness, Ultimately the goal is supporting regional stability and partnerships in Oceania.

“The joint Navy/Coast Guard OSMI mission capitalizes on the agility and mission adaptability LCS was designed for,” said Cmdr. Derek Jaskowiak, commanding officer of Oakland. “It is our privilege to support our partner nations through presence in Oceania and to ensure continued security stability and prosperity throughout the region.”

Finishing an OSMI patrol in late Aug, Oakland operated alongside the US Coast Guard, a det from HMSS35 (Helicopter Maritime Squadron 35), and partners throughout the region to suppress elicit maritime activities like Illegal, unregulated, unreported fishing and transnational crime.

"Partnering with the U.S. Navy in support of the OMSI mission enables the Coast Guard to extend our reach into and throughout Oceania as the tyranny of distance when operating in the Pacific is exceptionally vast," said Lt. C.K. Williams, chief intelligence officer of USCG Sector Honolulu.

On Sept 22nd USS Jackson Arrived in the region Via Tahiti upon a scheduled port visit, Jackson's port visit to Tahiti reflects the historic and strong relationship between France and the United States,” said Denise Bauer, U.S. ambassador to France. “This visit will present invaluable opportunities to meet with local communities and to reinforce the critical partnership between our forward deployed naval forces.”

The Jackson Gold crew conducted a port visit in Fiji, Sept. 11-15, and upon departure from Tahiti will continue their OMSI mission through the end of September.

An integral part of U.S. Pacific Fleet, U.S. 3rd Fleet operates naval forces in the Indo-Pacific in addition to providing realistic and relevant training across the full spectrum of military operations – from combat operations to humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. U.S. 3rd Fleet works in close coordination with other numbered Fleets to provide commanders with capable, ready forces to deploy forward and win in day-to-day competition, in crisis, and in conflict8.

South Korea’s Recent Defense Developments Come to Fruition

Yoon Suk-yeol’s motivation to have South Korea become a dominant figure in the global Defense Industry is rivaling the tensions in the Pacific-Asian area. This includes making the country one of the top world suppliers of weapons, which would greatly strengthen bonds with other powerful nations. In turn, this would not only give South Korea stronger allies but improve its current position on the international stage.

Currently, South Korea is ranked as the eighth largest exporter of arms in the world, but that is not up to the standards of the newly elected president. Progress to reach the first four spots on that list has been made over the recent years with the new administration investing heavily to achieve that goal. Countries with defense ties to South Korea are now turning towards their modern and innovative systems amidst fears over the invasion of Ukraine.

New products like Korea Aerospace Industries' carrier-born variant called KF-21N supersonic fighter aircraft, their multirole transport aircraft, and Hanwha Systems vertical take-off and landing, electric-powered tilt-rotor aircraft are just a few of the defense vehicles on display at the recent DX Korea 2022. That is a showcase for the South Korean Defense Industry. Between 2012 and 2016 the South Koreans only accounted for 1% of total defense exports around the world. Just last year that statistic rose to 2.8% with a 177% increase in sales. Even though that seems like a small portion of the whole industry, the rate of exponential growth is an impressive aspect of the comparison. With expectations to bring in $10 billion with an additional $14.3 billion deal signed with Poland, 2022 is already becoming Seoul's most profitable year in terms of defense contracts. Additionally, the Philippines accounts for 16% and Indonesia accounts for 14% of sales over the past five years, deepening the relationships the South Koreans have in their international neighborhood.

“South Korea has been quietly ambitious about developing its defense industrial capabilities for a number of years and real progress is now becoming apparent,” said Trevor Taylor, director of the Defense, Industries and Society Program at the U.K.-based Royal United Services Institute. A critical factor to the success is the backing the government has given to defense players over the past several years. SIPRI’s analysis has concluded that South Korea’s modern weapon developments will match the sophistication of established powers like France, Italy, Sweden, and Israel. The government has already proposed a $57.1 billion defense budget for 2023 which is a 4.6% increase from last year.

The most important part of the South Korea military modernization is the Kill Chain Doctrine and Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation plan. The KCD is a reaction policy. If intelligence thought the North Koreans were going to attack the South, Seoul would target North Korea’s long-range artillery, as well as their intercontinental and ballistic missiles sites. The KMPR would target the homes and cities of the North Korean officials. This is a regime change focused plan compared to the KCD, which is a capability strike mission.

Between the tensions surrounding Taiwan, and North Korea’s recent missile launches before Kamala Harris’s visit to South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol is preparing for conflict to break out and have allies to back him if relationships explode. Seoul’s Defense aims are not just realistic, but hold the potential to put them at the forefront of the Industry.

Asia and the Middle East

Unrest Rips Across Iran

After the death of a 22-year-old Kurdish woman named Mahsa Amini protests erupted across Iran. Her death was a result of Iranian morality enforcers attempting to arrest her due to her hair showing outside of her hijab.

The Kurdish regions of Iran have been reported engaging Iranian police and military and reportedly temporarily took control of the city of Oshnavieh on September 23rd. As of September 28th, at least 41 protesters have died, according to state television. Hundreds of people have been arrested, local agencies report, including political activists and journalists. The Kurdistan Human Rights Network (KHRN) reported on September 26th that the anti-riot and paramilitary Basij forces killed at least 18 civilians in the recent protests in Orumiyeh, Oshnavieh, Piranshahr, Divandarreh, Saqqez, Dehgolan, Eslamabad-e Gharb and Ilam.

Yesterday, Twitter user @NetBlocks tweeted that, “Confirmed: Live metrics show the loss of internet connectivity at #Amirkabir University in #Iran as students strike over the death of #MahsaAmini.”

Reuters reported that Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps launched an artillery attack on Iranian militant opposition bases in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq on Saturday.

"Headquarters of anti-Iranian terrorists" based in northern Iraq were targeted by the Guards, state TV said, in reference to Kurdish rebel groups based there. Iran has blamed armed Iranian Kurdish dissidents for involvement in ongoing unrest in the country, particularly in the northwest where most of Iran's up to 10 million Kurds live.

"These operations ... will continue in order to ensure viable border security, punish criminal terrorists and hold officials (of the Kurdish Regional Government) accountable towards international regulations and their legal duties," the Guards said in a televised statement.

Videos on Kurdish and Iraqi social media websites show missiles and suicide UAV strikes in Koy Sanjaq, Qaladize, Zargwez, Prde, and Koya, as Iran continues to attack Kurdish groups whom it accuses of causing riots within its borders. In total, the Headquarters of KDPI (Kurdish Democratic-Socialist party), PAK (Kurdish Left Nationalist Party) and Komala (Kurdish Socialist Party) were targeted by Iranian missiles. At least nine (9) suicide drones have attacked Komala headquarters in Sulaimani province, an Iranian opposition official told Kurdistan 24.

The Associated Press reported that on Wednesday, Iran conducted UAV strikes on the town of Koya, located 60 kilometers (35 miles) east of Irbil, said KDPI member Soran Nuri. Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency stated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard ground forces targeted some bases of a separatist group in the north of Iraq with its “precision missiles” and “suicide drones.” Two people were killed and seven were wounded, according to Kurdish Brig. Gen. Goran Ahmed, chief of civil defense in Koya. The Kurdish television network Rudaw said 15 people were injured.

Al Mayadeen News reported that the IRGC also targeted the headquarters of the PJAK, or the Kurdistan Free Life Party, along the Iran-Iraq border on Wednesday. The PJAK is the Iranian branch of the terrorist group, the PKK, or Kurdish Workers Party.

With the reignited dissatisfaction by Iranian Kurds, it is possible that there may be efforts for more autonomy or possibly more independence movements within the Iranian provinces of West Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, Kermanshah, and Ilam. As of 2020, Iran had between eight and 10 million Kurds, or roughly 10 percent of Iran’s 84 million people. It is probable that Iraqi Kurdish groups will increase their relationship with Iranian Kurdish groups in order to support those aforementioned movements. Additionally, Iraqi Kurds will most likely increase protests in Erbil and Baghdad to display their dissatisfaction from the lack of response from the Iraqi government regarding the Iranian strikes on Iraq’s territory. This will further exacerbate the already growing instability within the country and it is probable that this will increase the division from the autonomous region of Kurdistan and the federal government of Iraq. Alternatively, the growing number of Iranian Kurds protesting will likely result in a sharp increase of individuals joining Kurdish militant organizations such as the PJAK, PAK, Komala, or KDPI. The follow on effects of this could be increased attacks against IRGC buildings and personnel in Kurdish dominated provinces9.

Iraq: Impending Renewal of Violence and Nationwide Protests between Sadrists and Pro-Iran Political Parties and Militias

Prominent firebrand and populist Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called on his followers to stop protesting on August 30th after violent clashes between his militia, Saraya al-Salam, and Iranian-backed militias occurred after he announced that he was withdrawing from politics. His followers stormed the International Zone/Green Zone, the Presidential Palace, and caused protests primarily in central and southeast Iraq. The fighting and protesting resulted in the death of 30 of Sadr’s supporters, with up to 570 more injured. After fighting began on its second day, Sadr called for hostilities to stop.

"Within 60 minutes, if the Sadrist movement does not withdraw, including from the sit-in at parliament, then even I will leave the movement," Sadr said.

Minutes after Sadr ordered his protesters to cease protesting, his supporters returned to their homes.

Calls for Peace for the Arbaeen Pilgrimage

Days after the protest, Qais Khazali, the leader of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), ordered the closure of his party's offices until further notice. AAH is an Iranian-backed Shia militia and political party operating primarily in Iraq, as well as in Syria and Lebanon.

“Brothers and friends, I swear to you by the right of Al-Hussein, peace be upon him, that you will not receive any negative response to the offenses directed at me personally. The great Muhammad al-Sadr used to say that I am not important with my face, my hands, or my eyes, but the important thing is the religion of God and the doctrine of the Commander of the Faithful. I reckon it with God and in the eyes of the Companion of Time, peace be upon him. There are those who stalk us and want to aggravate matters. They missed the opportunity and thwarted their plan by remaining silent, as a draw to God Almighty. May God reward you with the best reward for the doers of good. God, God, in the blood of Muslims, God, God, in not causing the failure of the Arbaeen pilgrimage. I ask the brothers in Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq to close all the movement’s offices from now until further notice, and any office they want to burn, let them burn it. I address my speech to the other (if you extend your hand to kill me, I will not extend my hand to you to kill you, I fear God, Lord of the worlds) and do not forget.”

On September 6th, Muqtada al-Sadr released a similar message, also calling for peace during the Arbaeen pilgrimage.

“In the name of God Almighty, it is imperative to maintain peace and peace during the Arbaeen visit of this year in all its forms. There are parties that want to sow discord.. So we hope to waste the opportunity on those who hate this visit, on the scum of the Saddamist Baath, and on any impudent person, no matter who and from any party, especially since this visit is often general and not limited to Iraqi visitors.. which means its importance on the one hand and its danger on the other. On the other hand . And everyone from whom abuse, violence, harm, friction or anything like that is issued, we are innocent of him and must inform the competent authorities to carry out their duty under the law. Rather, whoever offended you…there is no way but to ignore or report it..and no one has the right to respond at all. We all want to serve Imam Hussein, peace be upon him, not to neglect rituals and sanctities, God forbid, nor civil peace. Trust in the necks of all without exception. Here, I repeat: The Saraya, the Popular Mobilization, or any armed faction should not interfere. Rather, the matter is entrusted to the other security forces. We are grateful. God is the Best Preserver, and He is the Most Merciful of the Merciful, the grandson of Imam Hussain - Muqtada al-Sadr.”

The Arbaeen Pilgrimage is the world's largest annual public gathering. It is held at Karbala, Iraq at the end of the 40-day mourning period following Ashura, the religious ritual for the commemoration of martyrdom of the grandson of the Islamic prophet Muhammad and the third Shia Muslim Imam, Hussein ibn Ali's in 680 AD. The Arbaeen ceremony officially starts on September 17th, however the pilgrimage starts two weeks before the date and lasts until one week after as pilgrims walk from the surrounding areas to reach the shine in Karbala.

More Political Issues

On September 2nd, just days after Sadr’s called for hostilities to end, the October (Tishreen) movement held non-violent protests in Baghdad, adding the dissolution of the parliament to their previous demands. Their original demands were mainly concerned with the end of corruption, employment, and better basic services such as water and electricity. Following this demonstration, the protesters announced to resume their protest after September 20th.

On September 8th, the Iraqi Federal court rejected the Sadrists demand to dissolve the parliament. This comes after weeks of Sadr’s supporters storming of the Green Zone, and then conducting multi-weeklong sit-in protests demanding the dissolvement of the parliament. Prior to this announcement, however, Sadr said the Sadrist bloc will not return to the Iraqi parliament even if the Supreme Court rules in his favor. He also called on the independent seats, and his Sunni and Kurd allies to resign from parliament to make the parliament unconstitutional. Additionally, Sadr stated that he wants the current caretaker government to conduct early elections.

After the October 2021 election, Sadr created the Saving the Homeland political alliance, which consisted of his Sadrist movement, the Al Siyada Alliance (the largest Sunni alliance consisting of the Taqaddum Coalition led by parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbusi and the Azem Alliance led by Khamis Al Khanjar) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by Massoud Barzani.

The Sadrist movement won 73 seats
The Taqaddum Coalition won 37 seats
The Azem Alliance won 14 seats
The Kurdistan Democratic Party won 31 seats
Independent candidates and representatives of the October Movement/ Tishreen Movement won 43 seats

After months of political gridlock, the Sadrists resigned to allegedly allow the formation of a government, but his Kurdish and Sunni supporters remained in parliament. According to Iraqi laws, if any seat in parliament becomes vacant, the candidate who obtains the second highest number votes in their electoral district would replace them. This resulted in the Iranian-backed Coordination Framework becoming the dominating political alliance within parliament. Since then, Sadr and his supporters have been calling on the complete dissolvement of parliament.

The Council of Representatives consists of 329 members – of which 82 are supporters of Sadr. This doesn’t include the 43 independent representatives. By calling on the independents and his Kurdish and Sunni allies to withdraw from parliament, this would include an additional 125 vacant seats on top of Sadr’s 73 seats. If successful, this would result in 198 vacant seats out of the total 329. This would leave only 131 seats participating in parliament – which doesn’t follow the Iraqi Constitution of having 2/3rd quorum ruling.

Conclusion:

Mid-September to early October is going to have incredibly high tensions between the Iranian-backed militias and the Sadrists and their allies. It is possible that the groups will attempt to maintain peace until the completion of the Abaeen Pilgrimage but will likely resume hostilities following the week after the ceremony. Additionally, if the Kurd’s, Sunni’s, and Independent’s leave parliament, it is possible that the Iranian-backed militias will become hostile towards those groups if hostilities resume – resulting in hostilities spilling over into dominated Sunni and Kurdish areas of northern and western Iraq, respectively. Sadr will almost certainly continue to call on the current Prime Minster of Iraq Mustafa Al-Kadhimi and Iraqi President Barham Salih to hold early elections in the meanwhile10.

Africa

A Civil War Reignites

The civil war between Ethiopian federal forces (ENDF) backed by Eritrean troops (EDF) and the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist & Confederalist Forces (UFEFCF) continues. The war that started in the Tigray National Regional State has gone on for almost two years and shows no signs of ending soon.

A Region Surrounded

The war surrounds historical tension between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the political party that rules Tigray and once ruled Ethiopia for many years. In August, 2020, elections were postponed by the National Election Board of Ethiopia due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Tensions between the TPLF and Abiy’s government continued to grow after Tigray announced that it would hold elections at the previously scheduled date anyway. After blocking a newly appointed brigadier general from taking his post, the federal parliament suggested designating the TPLF as a terrorist organization. The next day, November 4th, Tigray Special Forces attacked the headquarters of the ENDF Northern Command in Mekelle, Tigray in what the TPLF called “preemptive self-defense”.

The day after the Northern Command attacks, Abiy announced the start of a military offensive to restore federal government authority in Tigray. Rapid advances by federal forces followed, with the help of thousands of Eritrean troops from the north, and by November 23rd, ENDF and allied troops reached the Tigrayan capital Mekelle. The city was fully taken with little fighting on November 28th.

Despite their rapid success, ENDF/EDF forces failed to capture TPLF key leadership or capture positions in northern Tigray’s mountainous terrain and six months of guerilla warfare followed.

Fighting Expanded

In June, 2021, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) were able to launch a massive counter-offensive on ENDF/EDF forces until November, 2021. The TDF was able to retake Mekelle and pushed east and south of Tigray’s borders. Tigrayan forces invaded neighboring Afar and Amhara, which prompted those regions and others to mobilize their regional forces in support of the federal government.

The TDF joined forces with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in late October, 2021 and attempted to drive on the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa. The OLA seeks self-determination for the Oromo people. The two formed a coalition, UFEFCF, on the anniversary of the Northern Command attacks along with seven other rebel organizations. UFEFCF did make territorial gains, but ultimately failed to reach Addis Ababa. The TDF requested a ceasefire on December 20th and withdrew from areas outside of Tigray.

Current Situation

The ceasefire between the two parties deteriorated on August 24th, when fighting broke out between the TDF and ENDF. Both sides claim the other broke the ceasefire and heavy fighting resumed. Eritrean forces once again deployed south into northern Tigray and linked up with ENDF troops to assault TDF positions. Due to a media and internet blackout imposed by the federal government, information from the area is slow to come out, but it is believed that heavy fighting is still ongoing in the area. TDF units have also pushed south into Amhara again, capturing territory all the way south to Agamsa and southwest to Kobo Robit, 50 kilometers from the regional border.

Fighting between government forces and the OLA has continued as well. The OLA claims it captured seven districts in Oromia between August 20th-September 23rd. The group claims that it repelled ENDF counter-assaults to retake the districts and separately “dismantled” military bases in Malka Soda and Gumi Eldalo. These claims are coming directly from OLA High Command and should be taken with some skepticism. Due to the information blackout and general lack of international interest, these claims are typically not verified by independent parties. What can be confirmed is that from September 17th-23rd, clashes between the two sides occurred in six zones in Oromia. OLA forces also fought with Amhara regional forces loyal to the federal government and killed two farmers in the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s Region (SNNPR). War crimes committed by both ENDF/EDF and the UFEFCF have been commonplace throughout the war. The exact number of civilians purposefully killed is unknown, but it is in the thousands11.

The Giant of Africa with Its Hands Full

Instability in Nigeria continues to worsen as the country deals with multiple crucial issues. Islamist insurgencies in Nigeria show no signs of slowing or deescalating, and instead show signs of expanding. As the country prepares for federal and state elections, instances of political violence are expected to ramp up. Lastly, an economic crisis looms over Nigeria as the nation’s central bank attempts to fight high levels of year-on-year inflation.

Jihadism

Nigeria has been plagued with Islamist insurgency since mid-2009 from the jihadist group Boko Haram. The group’s insurgency began when a government investigation into Boko Haram’s possession of weapons led to clashes in the states of Borno, Yobe, and Kano that killed roughly 700 people. BH would carry out their insurgency over the next four years by attacking police stations, kidnapping civilians & foreigners, and bombing civilians targters leading to the deaths of over 1,000 people.

Boko Haram pledged allegiance to ISIS in March, 2015, and became the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) under Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. However, tensions soon erupted after the Islamic State removed BH leader Abubakar Shekau and replaced him with Abu Musab al-Barnawi after he disobeyed orders from al-Baghdadi. Abubakar Shekau then gathered his supporters and broke off from ISWAP, retaking the old name “Boko Haram”. The two groups would continue to fight against the Nigerian government and against each other.

The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) identified the conflict as one of their top 10 to monitor for 2022. In the beginning of the year, the project theorized that ISWAP would expand its operations outside of Borno State, where the group’s Nigerian activity had been kept to for the most part. In their newly released mid-year update, the ACLED is reporting that ISWAP has indeed expanded its operational areas, The IS branch has moved further to the south in the direction of the Federal Capital Territory. ISWAP has claimed multiple attacks outside of Borno this year, including attacks in Taraba and Niger State. The targeting of civilians by ISWAP and other non-state groups in the country has increased by 45% in the first half of this year, compared to the same time last year. Over 2,300 civilian deaths have been reported at the hands of these groups so far in 2022.

Political Sphere

Elections in Nigeria are coming up soon with the presidential election to be held on February 25th, 2023. The ballot will see two main candidates: Bola Tinubu of the All People’s Congress and Peter Obi of the Labour Party. Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC cannot run for a third term, thus Bola Tinubu is seeking to keep his party in power following Buhari’s departure from office. Candidates from other minor parties will be on the ballot as well, but are not expected to receive much attention compared to the aforementioned two.

Political violence and unrest is not uncommon in Nigeria, especially near elections. Law enforcement and counter-demonstrators have broken up multiple protests conducted by the Labour Party and have threatened to do so to another protest scheduled for October 1st in Lagos. Additionally, some fear that we may see violent political events soon as the election draws closer. During the 2019 elections, at least 58 Nigerians were killed in election-related events.

The Economy

Nigeria has Africa’s largest economy, with a 2021 nominal GDP estimate of $440.1 billion. Despite this, the economy is in danger. The unemployment rate in 2021 was 33.1% and underemployment (those who work less than 20 hours a week) was at 22.8%. The figures for 2022 are expected to be worse.

The nation’s economy faces other issues; the World Bank reports that Nigeria is failing to attract investments, both foreign and domestic. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that only four of Nigeria’s 36 states attracted adequate amounts of foreign capital in the second quarter of 2022. Nigeria also gains much of its foreign currency, more than 80%, from its oil sector. Benefits from this year’s rise in oil prices have not reached Nigeria. This is due to large-scale theft, about 400,000 barrels a day, fuel subsidies, and lack of investment in infrastructure. The country is normally Africa’s largest oil producer, but last month it was overtaken by Angola. In August, Nigeria only produced 1.1 million barrels a day, which is far lower than its quota of 1.8 million as a member of OPEC.

Inflation, while an issue in many countries around the world, is particularly high in Nigeria. Last month’s annual inflation rate was 20.5%, prompting Nigeria’s central bank to raise interest rates by 150 basis points, or 1.5%. Rates are now at an all-time high of 15.5%. This comes as the nation is experiencing a scarcity of US dollars, caused by the low levels of oil production. The Nigerian naira has dropped almost 25% against the US dollar since the beginning of 2022, currently sitting at $0.0023. More so, businesses are beginning to raise prices for exchanging the two currencies to almost 50% higher than the official exchange rate12.

Insurgency in the Narrow Cape

The Islamic State’s insurgency in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado Province continued this month; just shy of its five year mark. Despite retaking most ground held by the insurgents last year, government forces have yet to degrade the insurgents’ capability to conduct large scale attacks on cities.

Background

On October 5th, 2017, roughly 30 men claiming to be from “al-Shabaab” attacked three police stations in the city of Mocímboa de Praia, Cabo Delgado Province. The men stole weapons and ammunition, and killed 17 people, including two police officers. 14 of those men would be arrested soon after.

al-Shabaab in Mozambique is a separate group from the commonly known al-Shabaab in Somalia. al-Shabaab is the name given to the group by locals, but the Mozambican group’s official name is Ansar al-Sunna. Ansar al-Sunna was formed in Cabo Delgado in 2015 by supporters of Aboud Rogo Mohammed, a Kenyan Islamist cleric who was assassinated in 2012. All or some of the group’s factions joined the Islamic State’s Central Africa Province (ISCAP). However, ISCAP seems to have a fairly decentralized command over Ansar al-Sunna; sending trainers to the group but not much else.

After the October 5th attacks, more clashes and arrests followed; roughly 2-3 incidents each month. By January 2018, it was clear that the government was dealing with an insurgency and by mid-April, fighters from the ISCAP were in Mozambique to assist Ansar al-Sunna, albeit operating as separate entities. Insurgent attacks continued throughout 2018 and 2019, even targeting foreign oil and natural gas companies, of which Cabo Delgado is rich in.

In March, 2020, insurgents began to seize territory. Mocímboa de Praia changed hands at least four times throughout the year. By June, special forces from the South African National Defense Forces were deployed to assist in counter-insurgency efforts.

The conflict drew international attention in March, 2021, when insurgents laid siege to and captured the city of Palma. Before government forces retook the city after a week and a half battle, Islamists killed almost 90 civilians and displaced 40,000.

International Response

Mozambique has seen much aid from its African neighbors. In addition to South Africa, Malawi began deploying forces in December, 2020. Rwanda began sending troops in July, 2021 and in the same month the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) was deployed. SAMIM is a brigade-sized force composed of forces from South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, Tanzania, Angola, Zambia, Malawi, the DRC, and Namibia.

The EU has activated and deployed the Training Mission in Mozambique (EUTM-Moz) to train the country’s Quick Reaction Forces. Likewise, the United States has sent US Army Special Forces to train government forces.

Current State

Counterinsurgency in Cabo Delgado is still in full swing almost five years later. This is not atypical, however, as counterinsurgencies last anywhere from six to eight years on average.

The Mozambique Energy and Gas Summit was held from September 13th-14th, the first in three years. Cabo Delgado was of course a major topic during the summit. President Filipe Nyusi pushed oil and gas companies oil to return to the province, citing “success in the fight against terrorists”. Company executives did share some optimism over the situation, but say that more progress must be made before business comes back to the region.

Despite successful counter-offensives and counter-terrorist tactics by government and SADC forces, observers do warn that ISCAP and the local al-Shabaab are still very much a serious threat. The Cordillera Applications Group, a risk analyst firm, says the Islamist groups still possess the capability to conduct attacks like the siege on Palma. Additionally, fighting between security forces and insurgents is still commonplace; as are attacks on civilians. Civilians continue to bear the brunt violence in the region.

As of September 25th, 2022, according to the ACLED, at least 1,452 violent events have occurred in Cabo Delgado since October, 2017. The total number of fatalities from those events are 4,29613.

Looking Forward

Violence and economic strife are two of the biggest problems Africa is currently facing. Specifically, violence between government and non-government forces and soaring prices, as well as lack of economic investment. Nigeria and Mozambique both face insurgencies from the Islamic State that show no signs of ending this year. Both nations also face economic hardship that will likely get worse before it gets better. Ethiopia is in the middle of a two year de facto civil war. Given the failure of the recent ceasefire and the pure disdain that the federal government and UFEFCF have for each other, a lasting ceasefire is unlikely to happen anytime soon. This is especially the case regarding Tigray if PM Ahmed continues to allow forces from Eritrea to engage in this war that some would say never should have involved it in the first place. In short, not much has changed or will change for Africa. The continent has historically been plagued with war, economic crises, political instability, and food shortages. The situation in Africa will not improve in the foreseeable future.

Contributors in this issue:

Croatoan Report

S2 Forward

Analyze Educate

Good Political

Alcon S2

Meridian News

All articles published in this newsletter are the personal opinions and positions of the authors themselves. All content, and the Bulletin From The Borderlands brand is the copyright of Lethal Minds©

https://insightcrime.org/news/lime-crisis-mexico-cartels-target-farmers/

https://noticieros.televisa.com/ultimas-noticias/limoneros-de-michoacan-atribuyen-escasez-a-disputa-territorial-entre-cjng-y-carteles-unidos/

https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/691460/precios_10_enero_22.pdf

https://nypost.com/2022/07/13/cartels-hold-migrants-for-10k-ransom-after-crossing-us-border/

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/mexican-drug-cartels-caused-rapid-increase-lime-prices-putting-squeeze-bars-cinco-de-mayo-rp

https://www.verywellmind.com/what-are-synthetic-drugs-5210920#toc-what-are-synthetic-drugs

https://apnews.com/article/latin-america-mexico-arrests-1c55206a5defd69f23972efbcf48ad65

https://apnews.com/article/mexico-caribbean-4f86488c9f64a6ee54e684546f9f9cf9

https://www.cnn.com/2014/11/10/world/americas/mexico-missing-students-impact/index.html

https://apnews.com/article/hurricanes-nfl-sports-cuba-storms-7975f44228a6d44a86cb945e856240d8

https://www.newsweek.com/li-qiaoming-general-center-china-coup-rumors-social-media -1746041

Gordon G. Chang @GordonGChang

Something is up in #China. The rumors remind us, once again, that the country is volatile and very few outsiders know what happens in senior #CCP circles. Stay tuned for announcements, news, info, rumors, tidbits, and gossip.

Theresa Fallon @TheresaAFallon

Rumors are swirling across the internet of a military coup in China and that Xi Jinping is under arrest after CCP seniors removed him as head of the PLA. Is the massive cancellation of flights in China just a military exercise, or is there something more to it? 🧐 https://t.co/VDyQZacM2T

Laurie Garrett @Laurie_Garrett

This is false, it seems. LOOKS LIKE @Newsweek got this wrong. (Not for the first time.) The air traffic image, I am told, is fake #China https://t.co/C3YIUgI8tb