Bulletin From The Borderlands

15 October 2022

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Good Political, Analyze Educate, and Croatoan Report

Brazil’s government faces election turmoil as Jair Bolsonaro’s grip on power begins to slip. Cartel activity and its linked industries: drug and migrant trafficking, continue to grow as multi billion dollar industries.

Europe : Covered in this issue by Analyze Educate

As military and political costs for Vladimir Putin continue to spiral, now exceeding Soviet expenditure in the First Chechen War or the Soviet-Afghan War, a new commander is appointed to lead Russian forces in Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence forces successfully utilized a Vehicle Borne IED (VBIED) to destroy part of the Kerch Bridge.

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by Good Political

China moves into its 20th Party Congress. North Korea has dramatically increased its military drills and weapons testing, a key indicator that the Hermit Kingdom is short of food and seeking international aid. India, long seen as a secondary player in Asia, has taken center stage as the regional player who can offset Chinese influence.

Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by S2 Forward

Protests against Iran’s Islamic regime continue, now the longest lasting protest in the IRI’s history. OPEC+ has moved to restrict the production of exported oil, a move which will drive up prices world wide, and a mark of division between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the US. In Iraq, a new government has formed. Following the departure of Muqtada al Sadr from the government, the Pro Iranian coalition has elected to Pro Iranian politicians.

Africa : Covered in this issue by Croatoan Report

Africa continues to destabilize. Instability has spread across the subcontinent. Nigeria’s economy continues to spiral out, and Libya’s political movements once again fail to form a functioning government. In the central African republics, mercenary activities by groups like Wagner, has destabilized Burkina Faso and Congo.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: Shifting Sands

The big narrative this month is the gradual shift against the big acting blocs, Russia-China-Iran. Protests have rocked the IRI, destabilizing Iran’s ability to project power regionally. In Asia, American efforts to create a coalition against the CCP has begun to bear fruit. The zero sum mentality of the Chinese government has encouraged other major players, like India and Japan, to take a dim view of Chinese influence in the region.

Recent US efforts to secure Indian support in Asia has the potential to shift the power dynamic in the region. Historical conflict between India and the CCP, driven largely by competition over Nepal and China’s support for Pakistan, puts the CCP in an awkward position as it moves into it’s 20th Party Congress.

The Long Term Concern: Getting Back To Stable

With Russian losses still to be reversed in Ukraine, and protests raging across Iran, both countries have begun to flex the muscles of their unconventional forces across Africa and the Mid East. Wagner mercenaries supported a coup in Burkina Faso, and Iranian militants have continued their running battles with Iraqi nationalist militias.

As conditions get worse for these countries, they will continue to lean on their unconventional forces to create offsetting conflicts, which can draw international attention away from them and their objectives and give them the breathing room they need to achieve their goals.

Also worth noting is the role of food shortage in instability crisis. North Korea’s recent round of missile tests and exercises is a fairly good indicator that the DPRK is seeking additional food aid from the western world. Most of the DPRK’s food supply came from Russia. Shortages caused by the war in Ukraine have disproportionately affected the Hermit Kingdom.

See Also:

1. Ukrainian forces have continued to gain ground against weak Russian resistance.

2. Saudi Arabia has moved to break from its long standing position in support of the United States by raising global oil prices.

3. Anti government protests have continued in Iran, despite violent government crackdown.

4. The US government has enacted sanctions to limit the Chinese semi conductor industry. American citizens are no longer permitted to work in the Chinese chip industry, a move that has hamstrung the Chinese tech market.

5. The CCP begins its 20th Party Congress.

The Americas

Who Will Lead Latin America’s Largest Country?

Brazil held the first round of its long awaited elections on October 2nd. The result of the presidential election surprised many pollsters and political commentators that were banking on an outright victory for one of the candidates. With neither of the two main candidates winning an outright majority a second round of voting will be held on October 30th.

National Congress 

Brazil’s National Congress has a plethora of parties that hold seats, but in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Federal Senate, incumbent President Jair Bolsanaro’s Liberal Party came out on top. The party won 16.5% of the Chamber votes and nearly 25% of the Senate votes. The results show that regardless of who wins the presidency later this month, the influence of Jair Bolsonaro is here to stay; especially as his son, Flávio, is the Liberal Party’s Senate leader. Only 27 senate seats were up for grabs, of which the party won 13. In the Chamber of Deputies, the party won 99 of 513 seats, up from 77 in the last election. Right-leaning political parties now control half of the chamber. In the event that Bolsonaro’s left-wing challenger wins the presidency, he could have some trouble from the right-wing legislature.   

The Executive

The first round of elections saw 11 candidates aiming for the presidency; collecting anywhere from 48% to .01% of the vote. In Brazil, a candidate must gather over 50% of the vote in order to win the presidency. If that does not occur then a runoff election is held. The runoff will see the two front runners face off at the end of the month, incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. 

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known commonly as “Lula”, served as president from January 2003 to December 2010.  A leading member of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (Worker’s Party or PT), Lula worked to close the wealth gap in Brazil, protect Brazil’s environment, and position the country as an impartial friend to the international community. As a left-wing populist, Lula formed his base around the low income and working classes. His presidency, though, was rocked with scandals, including the Mensalão scandal and Operation Car Wash. In the former, Lula’s administration was found to have been paying lawmakers to vote on certain legislation. While dozens of aides and lawmakers were charged or otherwise implicated in the scandal, Lula walked away free and was later reelected to office. The latter scandal saw a large investigation opened in 2014 against Lula and other conspirators. He was charged and convicted of accepting bribes from Brazilian conglomerate Odebrecht S.A. and illegal campaign contributions from state-owned oil company Petrobras, among other things. He served 580 days days of his 12-year prison sentence before he was released in 2019. In 2021, his conviction was overturned when the head prosecutor was found to be biased against Lula.         

Jair Bolsonaro is a former Army officer that served during Brazil’s military dictatorship. A leading member of the Partido Liberal (Liberal Party or PL), Bolsonaro has worked to champion traditional Brazil values, secure gun rights, and advocate for free market principles. A right-wing populist, he has been described as “Brazil’s Donald Trump”. He has been heavily criticized by left and left-leaning pundits at home and in the West for his perceived racist and misogynistic comments, lackluster response to COVD-19, and environmental carelessness. Much to the nature of populist leaders, especially in Brazil, Bolsonaro is a polarizing figure. He was even stabbed in the abdomen while on the campaign trail in 2018. He does have much support though, particularly among those that are devoutly Christian, socially & fiscally conservative, and higher income.     

The final result of the first election was 48.4% for Lula and 43.2% for Bolsonaro. This came as a surprise to many pollsters that forecast a 10-15% lead and outright victory for Lula. While those same pollsters and observers believe Lula will still win in the runoff election, Bolsonaro appears to be in striking distance. Some have voiced concern over the consequences of a Bolsonaro loss, claiming that Brazil may see unrest akin to the January 6th Capitol Riots in Washington DC. He has signaled that in his eyes, an electoral defeat may not be legitimate. Such comments, and his populist nature, explain why pundits are cautious of a Lula victory. Latin America has a very fragile history with democracy and the rule of the law. As Latin America's largest country by population and landmass, the runoff election will be one to keep an eye on. The outcome could set an example for the entire region¹.   

South America Surfs into the US political forefront  

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met with Mexico's foreign minister on Thursday for the second time in a month. The event was billed as a "high-level security dialogue," but immigration was inevitably a key theme. The topic is fraught with political resonance less than a month before the midterm elections. According to Blinken, “not specific to the U.S.-Mexico border, but is a challenge for the entire hemisphere,” said Alejandro N. Mayorkas, the homeland security secretary, calling it “a phenomenon across the world. That number of displaced people is at an all-time high.” Blinken was joined with US Attorney General Merrick Garland and Samantha Power, the USAID administrator and attempted to open dialogue with Mexico about their handling of cartels, narcotics flowing into the US, and unchecked immigration from central and south America. Mexican authority’s claim that they are working on resolving the issue, but the US is skeptical.  

Mexico has agreed to accept up to 24,000 Venezuelans who illegally cross the U.S. border. The United States cannot return Venezuelans to their home country because of toxic relations with Washington. Also, Mexico will also expand its use of a public health rule to expel Venezuelans caught crossing the border illegally. According to Mayorkas, “Those who attempt to cross the southern border of the United States illegally will be returned. Those who follow the lawful process we announced yesterday will have the opportunity to travel safely to the United States and become eligible to work here.”  

As millions of Central and South American travel towards the US, Blinken stated that “Guatemalans, Hondurans, El Salvadorans, Haitians, Cubans, Venezuelans, Nicaraguans — so many people on the move, and it creates a tremendous challenge for all of us.” With US midterms in November, the open border has been heavily criticized from both the American right and left. Adding to frustration from the Americans, regardless of negotiations with the Mexican government, they appear in the eyes of the public to be facilitating the problem, rather than fixing it. Illegal immigration is a large talking point for the midterm election, and both American parties are attempting to deliver any solution to sway voters to their side. Ultimately, it is unlikely that immigration will slow or if Mexico will uphold their end of the deal.