Bulletin From The Borderlands

March 15 2024

Mar 21, 2024

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He is a graduate San Jose State University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the team lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Callisto Report: The Calisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

ALCON S2: A veteran of the New Zealand military intelligence community, if it walks, talks, or crawls in Asia, ALCON S2 knows about it. Cole is the preeminent source of OSINT for the Oceania and South East Asia region.

Jillian Butler: A lifelong writer and San Diego native. She received her bachelor’s degree in English and History at the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland. Upon moving back to San Diego, she received her master’s in International Relations at the University of San Diego where she centered her research around jihadi terror. She is also a contributing writer for Pop Smoke Media, American Grit, The Modern Insurgent, and Lethal Minds Journal’s Bulletin from the Borderlands. In her free time, she can be found surfing, training jiu jitsu, or improving her craft of cooking the perfect ribeye.

The Highlight: Taiwan’s Kinmen Island Experiencing a significant Increase in Chinese Grey Zone Actions

Kinmen island, the closest Taiwanese territory to mainland China, has seen a significant increase in Chinese aggression since the February 14th incident involving Taiwan’s Coast Guard and a Chinese fishing vessel. We expand on these actions in the “East Asia and Oceania” section of this issue.

Note from the Bulletin team:

Looking for the Strategic Forecast?

We've decided to implement a stand-alone long form Strategic Forecast that will be able to cover the multitude of conflicts and developments covered and the implications for the geopolitical sphere. Regional Weekly Wrap-ups also began this week as well. Check them out for key flashpoints and events in each region.

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick

Haiti Moves Closer to Full-On Collapse

Time is running out for Haiti. The situation in the country has gotten exponentially worse within the past couple of weeks. An attempt to secure the deployment of a multinational force to bring order to the Caribbean nation has likely led to one of the worst crises that the region has seen in years.

Henry’s Trip to Kenya

As the Americas Desk has covered in the past, Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry has been pleading for an international force to assist the National Police in bringing order to his country. After months of multiple countries supporting the idea of a multinational force, but not volunteering to lead it, Kenya stepped up to the plate. Kenya offered to lead the mission and deploy 1,000 police officers as well.

Since Kenya offered to lead the force in October, the mission has hit a few snags. The main obstacle came in late January, when a Nairobi High Court ruling declared that the Kenyan deployment would be unconstitutional without a “reciprocal agreement” with Haiti. Henry’s trip to Kenya in late February and early March led to the signing of such an agreement. This cleared the way for Kenya’s deployment.

Gang Offensive in the Capital

For a country of 11 million people, Haiti’s police force is only made up of 9,000 officers. The force has struggled for years to combat gangs in the country, as the Americas Desk has covered in the past. To give a brief glimpse of the situation in Port-au-Prince, various gangs control about 80% of the city.

For months, gangs have been threatening Henry and his government for trying to put foreign troops on Haitian soil. The loudest among them has been Jimmy “Barbeque” Cherizier, one of the most prominent gang leaders in the country. Barbeque, who was once a police officer, leads the G9 Family and Allies, one of the largest confederations of gangs in Haiti.

On February 29th, a coalition of gangs led by “Barbeque” Cherizier took advantage of PM Henry’s absence from Haiti and launched a campaign to oust him from power. The gang coalition is seeking to oust Henry because of the potential for a multinational deployment to restore order in the country.Gangs targeted police stations, international airports, and other public places. They also led prison breaks of almost 4,000 inmates from the National Penitentiary and over 1,000 inmates from the Croix-des-Bouquets prison. Among those inmates are suspects in the 2021 assassinaton of President Jovenel Moise. At least 12 people have been killed since the offensive began, including multiple police officers and civilians. The true number is likely much higher.

On March 3rd, Finance Minister Michel Patrick Boisvert, who is the highest ranking govt official while Henry is away, declared a 72 hour state of emergency and nightly curfew that has since been extended by a month. Many schools and stores in the capital city are closed. The already dire food shortage is expected to become more severe and Haiti’s main clean water supplier has stopped deliveries.

Since the declaration of the state of emergency, gangs have set fire to the Interior Ministry building, occupied the Institute of Social Welfare, and also targeted the Supreme Court. Police officers engaged gang members in multiple hours-long firefights inside Port-au-Prince. In the capital’s downtown area, three police stations were attacked last weekend. Officers and National Palace guards were able to retake some city streets and establish a perimeter around at least one of the three police stations. Criminals were also able to put multiple holes through the perimeter wall of the Toussaint Louverture International Airport in the capital, briefly entering the secure zone. The airport’s perimeter has since been secured and enhanced. While security forces have had some victories, they are outmanned and outgunned.

A Caribbean Community (CARICOM) emergency meeting was held in Jamaica this week between respective heads of government to discuss the crisis in Haiti. Representatives from the U.N., U.S., Canada, France and Brazil were also invited and in attendance.

Effects of the Campaign

The offensive has kept Henry from being able to return to Haiti. Attacks on the country’s airports have made the security situation unpredictable at best, posing a threat to the prime minister. He is also unable to land in the Dominican Republic as well after the country closed its airspace for flights to and from Haiti. Henry has been stuck in Puerto Rico since March 5th.

On Tuesday, Henry agreed to resign on Tuesday. In a major win for the gang coalition, he will step down once a transitional presidential council is created and an interim prime minister is appointed. With his resignation, the arrival of foreign forces to restore order is even further out of reach. On Tuesday, Kenya announced that its mission to Haiti is “on hold” due to the lack of a government in place. The deployment will not move forward until a new constitutional authority is put in place in Haiti. Prior to Henry’s resignation, the mission was in the “pre-deployment” phase.

Washington-based news group McClatchyDC is reporting that Haitian diplomats have requested the deployment of U.S. special forces to restore order. A national security official told the outlet that American forces in Haiti are out of the question. Although, U.S. forces conducted an evacuation of non-essential personnel from the U.S. Embassy last weekend. Additionally, a Marine Corps Fleet Anti-Terrorism Security Team (FAST) element was deployed to increase security at the embassy complex. The neighborhood surrounding the embassy is mostly controlled by gangs. The State Department is warning all Americans to leave Haiti immediately. Multiple U.S.-based carriers have canceled flights to Port-au-Prince, so U.S. citizens should immediately take advantage of any opportunities that arise to leave the country.

Regional authorities are keeping a close eye on the situation. Jamaica’s Defense Force says that it is on alert to watch for Haitians attempting to illegally enter the country. They are working with law enforcement personnel to monitor the coastline for smuggling and are stepping up immigration enforcement. Over the week, a group of 31 Haitians were arrested in Turks and Caicos as well after trying to enter illegally. Many observers believe the current situation in Haiti will make the migrant crisis emanating from the country even worse. In Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis has ordered the deployment of 250 personnel from the National Guard, Florida State Guard, Division of Emergency Management, and law enforcement agencies to prepare for a possible migrant crisis hitting the state’s shores. Those officers and soldiers will aid the Coast Guard with interdiction efforts with the deployment of additional air and watercraft as well1.

Looking Forward

While the resignation of Henry was the major demand for the gang coalition, it is not clear that they will pause their campaign against the government. CARICOM announced an agreement to establish a seven-man transitional presidential council. Little details of who would be on that council or how it will be established have been released. Barbeque and another major gang leader, Guy Philippe, have already said that they will not recognize a council that is set up by regional bloc.

Kenyan President William Ruto says that his country’s mission will move forward, despite it currently being on hold. He says that deployment can begin once the CARICOM-backed council is in place. Other countries have signed onto the multinational mission as well; the Bahamas, Bangladesh, Barbados, Benin, and Chad have all pledged troops. Benin has offered the most, committing 1,500 soldiers. Belize and Antigua and Barbuda have also pledged to send support personnel. However, without its leader, Kenya, the entire mission is stuck in limbo while Haitian security forces try their best to fend off the gangs.

The immediate future of Prime Minister Henry is not certain. He is still unable to return to his country. Despite rumors, Jamaican Foreign Minister Kamina Johnson Smith has said that Henry is not seeking asylum in that country. He is also unlikely to receive asylum from or any sort of safe passage through the Dominican Republic, due to the tense relationship between the two countries. While Henry plans to remain in office until the appointment of a presidential council, the reality is that his already limited powers over Haiti are essentially useless while he remains outside of the country.

Europe

Meridian news

Putin Election

Voting for Russia’s presidential election begins on March 15th and continues through the 17th. While there are multiple candidates across multiple parties running for office, Russia’s current President Vladamir Putin is functionally guaranteed victory securing his 5th term in office with some surveys showing his public approval rating as high as 75%. One of the most unique aspects of this election is the fact that annexed parts of Ukraine are being allowed to vote in it.

Only two candidates were intending to run on a platform that involved ending Russia’s so-called “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine, but they were labeled as “ineligible”, and barred from running for office. One of the reasons Puitin is pushing for annexed regions of Ukraine to vote is a “demonstration of patriotic feeling.” If people in these areas vote, it also legitimizes Putin’s claim that the occupied lands, and its people, does in fact belong to Russia, despite international disagreement.

Unsurprisingly, Ukraine disagrees with Russia's approach. Kyiv’s foreign ministry said elections in occupied lands of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhxhia, and Kherson are indicative of Moscow’s “continued flagrant disregard for international law norms and principles”. The ministry continued its statement saying “Forcing millions of Ukrainian citizens who live in temporarily occupied territories or who have been forcibly transferred to Russian Federation territory to participate in the so-called 'elections' is equally illegal.”

Ukraine’s objections to the election in occupied regions is also underscored by the detonation of two bombs on February 27th, 2024, the first day of early voting, near a polling station and local office buildings in Kherson Oblast. Another bomb was detonated on March 6th in Zaporizhzhia Oblast killing the Central Election Commissioner. It's unclear exactly who organized these bombings, but it was likely the Ukrainian secret service, or a resistance organization. One Russian opposition group based in Ukraine, known as the “Sibir Battalion”, released a video condemning the elections on March 12th, less than a week after bombing, where they voiced their belief that these elections were illegitimate. A second opposition organization called the “Freedom of Russia Legion” had one member refer to the attacks as a “voting method.”

Needles to say, while Putin will undoubtedly win the election and serve another term in office, he still faces significant opposition. His attempts to legitimize the occupation of Ukrainian land through votes unsurprisingly isn’t accepted by the international community, and Russian opposition groups alike. Whether the results of the upcoming election will be recognized by the international community are yet to be seen, but also unlikely. Regardless, Putin’s next term will have a significant impact on the ongoing war in Ukraine and geopolitics alike with Russia maintaining its current political direction.

Europe AI

It's no secret that Artificial Intelligence is fundamentally changing the way that we take in information. Even in its early stages - the power of AI is undeniable, especially as it continues to advance in complexity and ability. Earlier this week, lawmakers in the European Union passed new artificial intelligence laws to regulate the new technology and serve as a benchmark of regulations to be used world-wide.

The European Union shared that the AI Act was designed to protect consumers, with more scrutiny being placed on AI intended for medical use and other critically important use cases. Some AI use has been banned altogether including AI for police scanning faces in public, and other biometric identification systems, though there are provisions where use of AI is certified in solving cases of serious crimes like terrorism.

The EU also added provisions for generative AI - a use of artificial intelligence that can produce different types of content including text, images, video, audio, and more. They regulated that all content produced by AI must be labeled as such. Since these new laws were announced, big tech companies like X, Meta, Instagram, Snapchat, and Microsoft are all now under significant pressure. The EU is attempting to protect users, with massive fines of up to 35 million euros for companies who don’t comply. They’ve already begun requesting information from major tech companies about how they are already working to protect users from AI overreach, in addition to seeking out internal documents outlining risks to each business.

The AI Act will likely become law within the next few months, with companies having six months to adhere to the new laws, with a few provisions now coming into effect until mid-2026. While it's designed to protect consumers, AI will almost certainly grow more and more capable as the technology matures, and regulations will need to grow with it. Additionally, all the protections in the world will never stop bad actors from embracing artificial intelligence technology and misusing it for nefarious purposes. Regardless, these regulations help set the stage for much of the world as different countries work to regulate artificial intelligence.

Looking Forward

The convergence of Russia's presidential election and the European Union's new AI laws could have significant downstream impacts on the regional and global scale. With Vladimir Putin poised to secure another term amidst controversy over the inclusion of annexed Ukrainian territories in the voting process, tensions between Russia and Ukraine are likely to escalate, likely prolonging the war in Ukraine. The international community's response to the election results, particularly regarding the legitimacy of the vote in disputed territories, may further strain and complicate the already complex politics of the region. Simultaneously, the EU's AI regulations signal a shift towards greater oversight and accountability in the tech industry, aiming to shape the future development and deployment of AI technologies worldwide. As major tech companies face increased pressure to comply with stringent regulations, innovation in AI may face constraints, impacting industries reliant on these technologies. Moreover, the EU's proactive approach to AI governance could set a precedent for other countries, shaping the global regulatory landscape for artificial intelligence in the years to come.

East Asia and Oceania

John M. Larrier

Weekly Wrap-up: Indo-Pacific

Desk Chief- John M. Larrier

Regional Flashpoints:

While not necessarily native to the region, the ongoing fight in the U.S. Congress to force new ownership of Tik-Tok has just passed the House of Representatives. It is expected to be contested heavily in the Senate.

Chinese military aircraft, naval vessels, and balloons continue to cross the median line in the Taiwan Strait at increasing rates. Most recently, 26 PLAAF aircraft and 10 PLAN vessels were operating around Taiwan’s ADIZ. 18 aircraft crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s de facto ADIZ.

Notable Regional Updates:

India’s recent test of the Agni-V intermediate-range ballistic missile equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRV) has been a significant achievement for Indian deterrence. The successful demonstration of MIRV, which allows a single missile to carry multiple warheads aimed at different targets, will enhance the missile’s effectiveness and survivability against anti-ballistic missile systems.

Last week the Indian Navy demonstrated its ability to conduct simultaneous twin carrier ops in the Arabian Sea. Utilizing carrier-based Mig-29k fighter jets, they conducted the operations from both aircraft carriers, INS Vikramaditya and INS Vikrant.

A Chinese military delegation visited the Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, to discuss “regional Military issues of common concern”.

Looking Forward/Implications:

This week’s Indo-Pacific Wrap-up is India-heavy.

India’s recent ballistic missile test of the Agni-V, capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads, represents a substantial enhancement to India’s deterrence capabilities against China. The successful test places India in a select group of nations with advanced missile capabilities and sends a clear message of deterrence to Beijing, especially amidst ongoing border tensions highlighted by China’s increased military-to-military communication with nations that border India. Expect such communications to continue.

However, this development could prompt China to reconsider its military posture and strategy in the region, potentially leading to a slight recalibration of its approach towards India and a change in its compartmentalized nuclear doctrine as it relates to its regional adversary.

Furthermore, India’s demonstration of twin carrier operations in the Arabian Sea underscores its growing confidence and capability to project power beyond its immediate borders. This naval maneuver signals India’s readiness to take on a more assertive role in regional security, and could potentially alter the maritime dynamics and challenge the existing power structures in the Indo-Pacific and Eastern Middle East.

Simultaneously, we have seen an uptick in Taiwanese ADIZ violations by Chinese military aircraft, a trend that is likely to continue at a consistent rate. This persistent pressure tactic not only destabilizes the status quo but also tests the resolve of Taiwan and its allies. Notably, the United States. In response to these provocations, it is likely that the U.S. and other regional partners will continue to enhance their military presence and readiness to ensure stability. Expect further bilateral/quadrilateral exercises and maneuvers from the U.S.-aligned nations.

Mid East - Central Asia

Israel-Hamas War: Threat Assessment

Could We See a Significant Escalation in the Levant Before a Ceasefire?

John M. Larrier

As the Houthi strike campaign against commercial and naval shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden intensifies and increases in accuracy, the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas reaches a critical point for both Israel and Hamas. Israel finds itself in the last legs of its hard fought campaign to “eradicate Hamas'' after the October 7th attacks of last year. Hamas finds itself back up against a wall literally and figuratively in and around Rafah.

However, few realities should be noted before any assessment can be made on the potential for future escalation from Hamas, Israel, or Hezbollah to the North.

For a few obvious reasons, it can be assessed with a high degree of certainty that post-October 7th, Hamas not only knew its days were numbered, but likely understood that the guarantee of Israel’s large-scale operations inside of Gaza, meant an indefinite shift to a weak defensive posture, with the sole aim of exacting the highest toll on IDF ground forces possible.

Kevin Benson, Adjunct Scholar at West Point's Modern Warfare Institute (MWI) rightly pointed this out just a week after the October 7th attack.

“Hamas will exert a total level of effort—diplomatically, economically, politically, and militarily—in order to win, or, more accurately, to not lose.”

As of now, Hamas has/will never field a force that would be considered ready and fit enough to commit any further actions that would cause the Israelis to drastically increase the tempo of operations more than they already have against the group and their affiliates. It's important to note that this will only remain true at least on paper, if Israel is allowed to complete its operation against the remaining pocketed elements of Hamas.

To the North, for the first months of the war, Hezbollah saw fit to drastically limit their perceived retaliatory strikes on IDF forces while rocket strikes on civilian infrastructure were noticeably down. A clear sign that Hezbollah saw no reason to significantly increase its operations against IDF forces and infrastructure for Hamas’ sake. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah’s repeated statements in the weeks after October 7th that “Hezbollah joined the war the first day after the flood”, while simultaneously, Hezbollah’s operations on the border amounted to ATGM pot shots at Merkava tanks, prompted calls for increased involvement throughout the Middle East. This coupled with Israel’s resumption of decapitation strikes on both Hezbollah and IRGC decision-makers and C2 nodes, has led to today's current tit-for-tat strikes between the IDF and Hezbollah in the north increasing at a fast pace. Even still, Hezbollah boasts one of the largest known stockpiles of short/medium range missiles and rockets, with a number of precision guided missiles also known to be in their possession. Largely reliant on Iran to maintain such a force, it could still be assessed that as of right now, Hezbollah has no intention to begin ground operations larger than squad-sized incursions into Israel. Large barrages originating from Hezbollah-controlled areas seem for now, to be in direct retaliation for Israeli retaliatory strikes on IRGC/Hezbollah decision-makers and C2 nodes. Which were in turn conducted after Hezbollah increased the tempo of daily operations against IDF forces and C2 infrastructure near the border.

Assessing Israel’s strategic needs and demands based on the IDF’s current force makeup has been hard. The IDF has two main areas of focus at the moment and have deployed to the north against Hezbollah or in the south, where fighting is ongoing against Hamas. Many, including myself, have mistakenly assessed units of note or specialty being pulled from fighting in Gaza and sent north as an indicator of imminent preemptive IDF operations aimed at pushing Hezbollah past the Litani River in Lebanon. We’ve seen a notable outcry from nations like Saudi Arabia, who made firm statements warning of the permanent disruption of Saudi-Israeli Rapprochement should Israel conduct operations against Rafah. In an earlier assessment for a joint Lethal Minds-The Grey Zone report, I assessed that the increased pressure from the Saudis and Americans could cause Israel to rethink the scale and scope of any potential operation in and around Rafah.

“Due to the diplomatic and economic benefits of a Saud-Israeli normalization of relations , the now concrete Saudi position, and the United States’ role in these talks, there is a realistic possibility that we could see the U.S. pressure the Israelis to abide by the Saudi demands, in the hopes that it can once again preside over rapprochement talks.”

To Put it plainly, Saudi Arabia, knowing that the U.S., has a desire to see the resumption of Rapprochement with Israel, maintained a feigned ambiguity on Israeli operations in Gaza until key leadership within Hamas came under threat after being pocketed in and around Rafah by the IDF. Most recently, a day before this was written on March 18th, the IDF announced it had killed Marwan Issa, the 3rd most important figure in Hamas and its affiliated groups.

Africa

Jillian Butler, Expeditionary Intelligence Group

A recent turn of events has indicated that Nigeria is struggling to get a handle on its epidemic of mass kidnappings.

The prevalence of large scale kidnappings in Nigeria can be traced back to the late 1990s when militia groups began using this tactic in order to force the government to address their grievances. It captured public attention in the mid 2010s when Boko Haram kidnapped hundreds of schoolgirls and sold them into sexual slavery and used them as suicide bombers. Today, it is one of the country’s most prominent security threats. The perpetrators range from armed bandits to jihadi terror organizations.

As touched upon in the weekly roundup, there have been several large scale kidnappings within the past week. On March 7th, nearly 300 students and school staff were kidnapped in Kuriga, Kaduna State. They were kidnapped by a gang of armed bandits who are demanding 1 billion naira, or just over $620,000 for their release. Nigeria’s Information Minister claims that the government is expecting security forces to retrieve the hostages and not give the kidnappers “a dime”. Shortly after, another 60 people in Kaduna State were kidnapped, also suspected to be at the hands of armed bandits. On March 19th, gunmen kidnapped 15 children from an Islamic School. No group has taken credit for this abduction. In Borno State, at least 200 people were kidnapped. Those kidnapped are predominantly women and children. Though there is no official claim, ISIS West Africa Province (ISWAP) is believed to be responsible. Security forces are currently working to recover those kidnapped.

The Nigerian government faces a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” conundrum when it comes to demands for ransom. If the government does not bend to ransom demands, armed groups may very well retaliate and make an example of the innocents kidnapped. If the government caves to the demands, they are inadvertently funding organized crime and regional instability. Additionally, getting what they want may embolden these groups to commit further abductions. If ISWAP is behind the Borno State kidnappings, it is an indication that the jihadi threat is growing. Abductees can be forced to act as suicide bombers, child soldiers, and sex slaves. A growing terror threat may prompt the government to look to non-state actors such as the Wagner Group for help.

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