Bulletin From The Borderlands

15 November 2023

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Kitbag Conversations : A team of retired Marine and Army Intelligence analysts and the founders of the Croatoan Report and Kitbag Conversations, foreign policy and security affairs podcasts. The Team Leader for Bulletin From The Borderlands.

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He is a graduate San Jose State University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the assistant lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

Sino Talk : Sino Talk is China watcher with extensive experience living and studying in China. In another life, he was a Marine intelligence analyst. 

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Callisto Report: The Calisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

ALCON S2: A veteran of the New Zealand military intelligence community, if it walks, talks, or crawls in Asia, ALCON S2 knows about it. Cole is the preeminent source of OSINT for the Oceania and South East Asia region.

Sponsors

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In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate). 

Fears of a conflict between Haiti and the Dominican Republic are escalating as both countries threaten each other’s water access and the construction of a border wall has led to confusion and confrontation. In South America, Argentina heads to the ballot boxes on the 19th to decide who will be their next president. The unfortunate reality is that the country likely won’t see a lot of change, regardless of who wins.

Europe : Covered in this issue by Meridian News

Sergei Khadzhikurbanov, a Chechen criminal convicted of the 2006 murder of Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya, is set to be pardoned after fighting for Russia in Ukraine. This pardon raises serious concerns about justice and morality, as the pardon, obtained through a military contract, establishes a disturbing precedent of exchanging military service for freedom. The murder of Politkovskaya, known for her critiques of the Kremlin, was a severe attack on press freedom. Simultaneously, Ukraine is actively pursuing domestic arms production, aiming for collaboration with U.S. defense industry leaders. This potential partnership offers strategic advantages for both nations, enhancing Ukraine's defense capabilities and providing the U.S. military direct involvement in weapons production on the European continent.

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by Sino Talk

The Taiwanese Air Force began to receive and deploy the Ching Tien 擎天 supersonic cruise missile with a range of 1,243 miles (2,000 km). The Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP) agreed to let public polls decide if they will run on a joint ticket for the presidential election. China, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam began the Aman Youyi joint military exercises in southern China. South Korea is considering canceling parts of the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement that set up buffer zones and no-fly zones along the Korean borders. Japan and the U.K. agreed to increase defense cooperation related to military equipment and cyber domains. Japan, South Korea, and the United States will begin sharing information related to North Korean ballistic missiles in real-time. 

The Philippine Coast Guard deployed its biggest multi-role response vessel to escort resupply vessels on the next resupply mission. Malaysia and Japan agreed to increase defense and maritime security ties during the Japanese Prime Minister’s visit to the country. Indonesia and the United States agreed on a new defense cooperation agreement during the Indonesian President’s visit to the United States. India will begin to create its first National Security Strategy that will outline the country’s national security objectives. Australia expressed its concerns as the Solomons Islands announced China will deploy more policemen to assist in providing security for the Pacific Games. Australia cooperated with the U.K. and the United States developing unmanned undersea capabilities during a recent joint maritime exercise.

Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by Eric Sheppler and Callisto Report

As Israel continues to prosecute its assault on Gaza, tensions in the region continue to escalate, with secondary and tertiary effects of Hamas’ Oct 7th attack continuing to play out.

IDF forces have completely cut-off the northern portion of Gaza and have captured key administrative infrastructure while civilians continue to flee southward.  

U.S. forces and assets have come under increasing attacks in Iraq and Syria by Iranian proxies and militias with dozens of bases being struck.  

In responding to these, the Biden administration has authorized airstrikes and the positioning of strategic level assets that send a clear signal to Iran and its subordinate forces. n

Houthi rebels in Yemen have risked causing a major escalation by launching long-range weapon systems on Israel-proper, these being shot down by Israeli air defense systems and the U.S. Navy. Were they to succeed, an Israeli response could add further complications to an already frightening scenario.

Africa: Covered in this issue by the Expeditionary Intelligence Group, Unbiased Conflicts, and Jillian Butler

While global attention remains fixated on conflicts in Israel and Ukraine, Africa, particularly Somalia, grapples with severe natural disasters and escalating instability. Recent flooding, attributed to El Niño and the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, follows a historic drought, displacing nearly 500,000 people and leading to a dire humanitarian crisis. The World Food Program warns of impending hunger, affecting a quarter of Somalia's population. Climate-related crises historically trigger clan conflicts over resources, and displacement hampers peacebuilding. Moreover, the crisis amplifies vulnerabilities to illicit activities, such as piracy, human trafficking, and child exploitation. Al-Shabaab, exploiting climate emergencies and the Israel/Hamas conflict, seeks to draw parallels to garner local and global support, presenting a significant risk of further destabilization. The United Nations' decision to suspend the withdrawal of African Union troops underscores the severity of the situation.

On November 1, 2023, the President of Nigeria's Labour Congress (NLC), Joseph Ajaero, and NLC members were attacked in Imo State, allegedly by a group linked to the state government. The attack followed planned protests against the state's failure to meet labor agreements.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: Insurgency Resurgent

Al-Shabaab seeks to take advantage of the growing humanitarian crisis in Somalia. With roughly half a million people displaced due to flooding and extreme weather and Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas raging, recruitment efforts and divisive actions from the group increase.

See Also:

• Argentina’s population turns out to vote and tensions rise between Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 

• The pardoning of a Chechen criminal as a result of his service in the war has people questioning the morality of allowing violent criminals to serve in exchange for their freedom. Ukraine seeks to bolster its domestic defense industry as it works in concert with U.S. defense companies. 

• In the Middle East, Israel continues its offensive and begins the most difficult phase of the offensive in Gaza City. The U.S. may be improperly using signaling as a means of deterrence in the region. 

• Tensions between the Philippines and China continue to cause concerns for escalation as both sides commit more surface assets to deter the other’s actions. Taiwan leans on public polls for the prosecution of their election, and China seeks to platform a viable security framework through the Xiangshan Forum. 

• In Nigeria, labor disagreements incite violence.

Strategic Forecast: John M. Larrier - Defense Bulletin 

Israel-Hamas War: 

In the midst of Israel's conflict with Hamas, the United States faces the complicated task of supporting its key ally in the region while also deterring potential escalation from Iran and its non-state proxies in the region. While Iran lacks the conventional combat power to combat U.S. forces in the region, concerns arise about the impact of attacks on U.S. bases and infrastructure in the region. As mentioned in the article on U.S. signaling, the response to these attacks is reminiscent of Cold War deterrence posturing, and could once again become the norm for U.S. responses to existing and emerging threats around the world. With B-1B Lancer Strategic Bombers and Ohio-Class SSBNs deployed to the CENTCOM AOR in recent weeks, we can only expect the U.S. to increase, not decrease, its force posture in the region as attacks persist against U.S. bases in the region. 

Within Gaza, Israel continues its offensive operations. The most recent development being the successful capture of the Al Shifa hospital on the outskirts of Gaza City. It is likely that the hospital, Gaza’s largest, was one of the initial operational goals of the IDF’s offensive. With this local C&C hub now under IDF control we can expect the next phase, the assault on the main city itself, to commence. It’s likely that Israeli forces are already beginning offensive operations aimed at taking the heart of Gaza City. With somewhere between 20,000 and 30,000 forces already committed to the ongoing operation, it’s also likely that the IDF will commit more forces previously held in reserve in order to take the rest of the city. This next phase is expected to be the hardest of the whole operation. As the urban terrain becomes increasingly dense the IDF will have to rely more heavily on light infantry and dismounted mechanized infantry to root out individual Hamas fighting positions, and the operational environment will make it hard for armor to maintain adequate situational awareness. 

Global Forecast:

The pardoning of the Chechen criminal Sergei Khadzhikurbanov may undermine the already flawed justice system within Russia, and could have the potential to spark limited unrest within the country. As both Ukraine and the United States are forced to face certain realities about arms production and aid, Ukraine’s domestic defense industry seeks to shoulder some of the burden of enhancing its defense capabilities. Ukraine will have to rely more on its domestic defense industry and the European defense industry as the U.S. seeks to pivot to the Indo-Pacific and is drawn back into the Middle East. With a humanitarian crisis already underway in both Somalia and Haiti, conflict rears its head once again as tensions rise between Haiti and the Dominican Republic and Al-Shabaab seeks to take advantage of Somalia’s destabilization. Al-Shabaab and other non-state actors around the world can be expected to increase recruitment efforts and take advantage of the domestic unrest and destabilization in their respective countries. 

Nigeria’s oil industry, which was declining for some time and recently rebounded, might experience a renewed decline as labor disputes perpetuate. Nigeria has roughly 2 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves. Should the labor disputes continue and/or expand, the Nigerian economy could suffer as they fail to tap into said reserves. 

India seeks to project strength, with the release of its first National Security Strategy signaling to China they have no intention of backing down from combatting Chinese aggression. The U.S. will continue to deepen ties with its allies and partners in the INDOPACOM AOR as a way to combat China’s aggressive expansion. 

As humanitarian crises pop up around the globe, the Russo-Ukrainian War rages, and the Middle East experiences a significant rise in tensions, the great powers will become ever reliant on deterrence and signaling in order to realize different geo-strategys. No significant conventional escalation outside of the Middle East is expected based on the current force posture of forces around the globe.

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick

Tensions Increase in Hispaniola 

Tensions between Haiti and the Dominican Republic have been rising in recent weeks. A wall along their shared border and a disagreement regarding water rights have led to the already fraught relationship to become ever more strained.

Water Dispute

The Dajabon River (Massacre River in Haiti) is a waterway that marks most of the northern portion of the shared border between the two countries. Haiti has been building a canal that will draw water from the river. The Haitian government says this canal is needed to help farmers that were affected by an extended drought. The Dominican Republic has been arguing that this canal threatens Dominican farmers and is in violation of an agreement between the nations dating back to 1929.

In response to the continuing construction of the canal Dominican President Luis Abinader has resumed the planning of two new dams and one canal along the river. Abinader also closed the border with Haiti in September in protest of the canal’s construction. Most goods were not allowed to cross into Haiti, including electronics and building materials. Some goods, such as food and medicine were put under military-controlled “provisional commercial corridors”. Haiti is the third largest trading partner of its neighbors, accounting for $1 billion in exports and $11 million in imports. The issuance of visas to Haitians was also suspended. This applied to all Haitians, including those crossing the border for work, tourism, health issues, or education.

The border was partially reopened in October. Vendors in border cities are now allowed to sell goods like food and medicine across the border. However, electronics and construction material remains prohibited. Additionally, visas will still not be issued to Haitians for the time being.

Border Dispute

In recent weeks, the Dominican Republic began building a wall along 118 miles (190 kilometers) of the border with Haiti. The purpose of that wall is to stem illegal immigration and smuggling, which are both major issues that affect their relationship. Its construction comes amid the partial border closure and the canal crisis that caused it.

The major issue in regards to the wall is the placement of it. The Dominican government decided to build the wall slightly east of the border, meaning that a small portion of the country’s land lies beyond the wall. Some Haitians have taken advantage of that placement and are claiming the portion of Dominican land to the west of the wall as Haitian land. Haitians have begun building a trench on that land since the dispute emerged. As the wall has been undergoing construction, Dominican troops have been patrolling the land to the west of the barrier. 

There have been at least two instances of groups of Haitian men coming into contact with an armed Dominican patrol in the area. In one instance, the group of men allegedly provoked the patrol by burning a pile of tires near the wall and some of them were armed. The group also lowered and seized a Dominican flag that was used to demarcate the border. On the next day, another group of Haitians tried to destroy “Pyramid 13”, which is one of the 311 demarcation signs along the border. The Dominican side responded to both of these incidents with the deployment of reinforcements and helicopters to the area. Haitian media claims that the Dominican troops illegally crossed into Haiti and pointed weapons at locals¹. 

Argentina Decides

On November 19th, Argentina will choose its next president. The second round of the presidential election will see libertarian economist Javier Milei face off against Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa.

Candidate Profiles

Sergio Massa, 51-years-old, is a career politician; starting as a lawmaker in the Buenos Aires legislature in 1999 and working his way up to Minister of Economy. Since 2013, he has been a member of the Renewal Front, a left-wing party that is part of the Peronist movement. Peronism gained its name from former President of Argentina, Juan Perón. Peronism is described as a populist corporatist movement that rejects capitalism and communism, and champions social welfare and social justice. Massa was chosen to represent the Peronistas in this year’s election to replace his boss and fellow Peronist, President Alberto Fernandez.

When Massa was appointed by Fernandez to his current role, the ministries of Economy, Productive Development, and Agriculture were all combined into the Ministry of Economy. This led Argentine media to call Massa “superministro (super-minister). Argentina is not in particularly great shape, economically speaking. This is an issue we have covered before; but to give an example of one major issue Massa has had to deal with year-over-year inflation in the country is 140%. According to Reuters, Argentina is tied with Sri Lanka as the world’s most vulnerable economy. The economy is easily Massa’s largest obstacle to becoming president.

Javier Milei, 53-years-old, is a career economist and author. Since December 2021, he has served as a National Deputy representing the City of Buenos Aires in the lower house of the National Congress. Milei is the leader of the Libertarian Party, a right-wing party that seeks to reduce the role of government. He supports freedom of choice in regards to drug usage, prostitution, and marriage. He also supports abolishing the Central Bank of Argentina and multiple government institutions. 

Milei has been trying to appeal to younger crowds, particularly through social media. Keep in mind that in Argentina 16-year-olds can vote. His largest obstacle to winning the election is his status as an outsider. Argentines that voted for other right-wing candidates that lost the first round might not flock to Milei, due to his non-traditional image. Even if he does win, Milei faces a major roadblock during his tenure. He would have little support in the legislature, which is split between Peronistas and more traditional right-wing lawmakers.    

Second Round Projections

According to Professor Evan Ellis of the US Army War College, the election hinges on one major question: Are Argentines more displeased with the current state of the economy or more fearful of Milei’s policies? A Proyección Consultores poll from the first week of November shows Milei at 51% and Massa at 49%. One consideration that observers are watching is the supporters of Patricia Bullrich, who was defeated in the first election round after placing third. The right-wing professor won 24%. Compare that to the 30% that Milei won. Since being defeated, Bullrich has endorsed Milei. However, some, including Professor Ellis, theorize that a portion of her supporters might break off and vote for Massa instead. The reasoning for that theory is that despite being to the right, some voters might want to see a traditional candidate win the office, instead of an outsider like Milei².

Looking Forward

The disputes on the island of Hispaniola have the potential to escalate. Neither side shows any sign of backing down. The outcome of these disputes is difficult to tell, but the Dominican Republic can continue to hurt Haiti with its partial border closure. For Argentina, the sad fact is that not much will change in the country regardless of who wins. While not as committed as President Fernandez to Peronism, Massa is still the candidate of the Peronist movement. Not only that, but it is difficult to imagine the course of the economy will dramatically change considering that he has overseen it. For Milei, his lack of support in the legislature means that he won’t be able to accomplish much without making some serious compromises. At this point, it looks like either man can win the race given recent polling.