Bulletin From The Borderlands

01 February 2023

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

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In This Issue:

The Americas :

Three common trends are continuing in Latin America: organized crime, corruption, and civil unrest. Widespread protests in Peru show no signs of slowing down. The death toll is increasing week-by-week and the economy is starting to take a hit. The Greater Caribbean area is still plagued by criminal gangs and drug cartels, especially Haiti and Colombia, respectively. Gangs in Haiti have a chokehold on the capital city of Port-au-Prince, which estimates say they may control over half of. In Colombia, it’s business as usual as far as drug cartels are considered. Record amounts of cocaine are being seized by security forces. In a Brooklyn courtroom, one of Mexico’s former top leaders in the country’s drug war faces accusations of working for the same people he claimed to be fighting against.     

Europe :

Arms flows to Ukraine have increased this month with Germany finally bending on the issue of supplying tanks to Ukraine. Russian forces continue to make incremental gains at high cost in casualties around the city of Bakhmut, but have yet to successfully threaten the city with capture. Russian forces seem to be massing in other areas such as Lugansk in the south to push against Ukrainian forces in a future offensive. Ukraine’s government has now begun to request F-16 fighter jets from Europe and the U.S. In NATO news, Turkey has accused America of brinksmanship for restricting a sale of F-16s to Turkey over Tayyip Erdogan’s refusal to ratify Sweden and Finland’s entry into NATO.

East Asia and Oceania:

At least 100 people are confirmed dead with several dozen injured amid ongoing rescue operations after a suicide bombing at a crowded Mosque in the city of Peshawar on January 30^th. While no group officially claimed responsibility, local officials stated a faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan called the Khurasani claimed responsibility for the attack. The Myanmar military – the Tatmadaw – is increasing the use of both aircraft and helicopters for airstrikes in a bid to defeat armed resistance groups throughout the country. However, these airstrikes usually target civilians and civilian infrastructure to punish the local population for supporting the groups. Officials in Western Australia are deploying more personnel and equipment as it continues the search for a radioactive capsule that fell off a train while traveling through the state. The United States and South Korea will hold a tabletop exercise next month focusing on nuclear threats from North Korea¹.

Central Asia and the Mid East:

Instability is the common trend across the Mid East and Central Asia this month. The Pakistani Taliban has resumed hostilities against the Pakistani government. Iran’s defense and nuclear technology sectors have taken a major hit following a series of explosions and fires across the country that destroyed factories, oil production facilities, and military bases. Israel and Palestine are looking down the barrel at another potential Intifada. An Israeli police raid that killed Palestinian civilians resulted in one of the worst terror attacks in recent Israeli history. Retaliatory Israeli police raids will trigger further Palestinian insurgent responses.

Africa :

This month we are observing multiple shifts in the normal trends within the entire African Continent. Peace continues in East Africa as tribal groups within Sudan broker a peace deal that will effectively end the communal violence that has been a major flashpoint to the displacement crisis within the nation. Somalia has pushed Al-Shabaab to its threshold, while US forces neutralized a key orchestrator of Islamic extremism, training, and financing within the nation and the larger region. Peace continues in the Tigray region of Ethiopia as disarmament has been continuing and critical services have begun to be returned to the area, however, the conflict between the OLA and local ethnic groups has begun to creep out from behind the shadow of the nation’s civil war now that peace has been achieved. Despite many eastern African nations being on a downward trend of violence and conflict the DRC remains a regional hotspot following an IED explosion orchestrated by the ADF that shook the communities in the northern Kivu Province. Meanwhile, in the west, political violence has been at an unexpected low within Nigeria as primaries quickly approach where historically elections bring the general populace anxiety and fear of violence. Germany appears to be concluding its mission in Mali sooner than expected allowing more Wagner Group assistance to take its place which could prove detrimental to counter-terror and stability efforts in the Sahel. 

The Big Points:

The Highlight: The Democratic World, Organized, But Ill Equipped.

The war in Ukraine has driven together Europe in general, and the NATO allies in particular. However, it has also revealed concerning weaknesses at the heart of the NATO alliance, principally in Germany. German armed forces have been effectively gutted over the last thirty years, as the German government chose to direct funds into other areas and rely on U.S. forces to cover Germany’s defense obligations. German foot dragging in aiding Ukraine is not merely German reticence to defend a state they see as being peripheral to Europe, but also is about avoiding having to reveal their own inadequacy to their allies. The Scholz government will attempt to blame previous governments, including the principle architect of German disarmament, Angela Merkel, but will ultimately have to take responsibility and solve the problem. Expect European states to increasingly lean on American arms producers and defense industries for their own arms, and turn away from European producers.

The Long Term Concern: War, War, War

As predicted, resource shortages have led to political instability, which has led to war. Israel and Palestine are heading towards another Intifada. Turkey seems set to make another attempt to push into Syria. Mexico has yet to get a handle on the narco rising in northern Mexico, and seem unlikely to in the near future. Russia’s failing campaign in Ukraine grinds on. Expect conflict to spread, and expect it to get worse.

See Also:

• The Russian Federation Presidential Helicopter crashed. Putin was not on board.

• Germany appoints a new defense minister, Boris Pistorius.

• Chinese New Year goes on despite widespread COVID outbreaks of multiple new variants across the country.

• Narco violence continues across Sinaloa and Culiacan, in response to the arrest of Ovidio Guzman.

The Americas

Breakings Records: Colombian Cocaine Seizures

Colombia’s security forces seized 671 tonnes of cocaine in 2022 according to their defense ministry, setting a new record for total amount of the drug seized during a calendar year. This announcement comes in the wake of a report we wrote about previously in the Bulletin, where we learned that the United States was pressing its ally Colombia to heighten measure combating cocaine production as projections indicated the highest level of cocaine production nearly in two decades according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNDOC). UNDOC’s annual report indicates possible output is up 14% to 1400 metric tons and agricultural land sown with coca is up 43%. 

Growing Coca, the plant that is the base ingredient for cocaine, is one of the only feasible ways to make a reasonable living in many parts of Colombia, due to the fact the producers pay reasonably well for the crop. Guerilla’s across South America like the National Liberation Army and the infamous FARC rebel group are implicated in the production, and trafficking of the substances to help fund their ongoing campaigns against the existing Colombian government.

 It’s worth mentioning that though these numbers are from Colombian security forces, it's not just Colombian security forces tackling drug trafficking and capturing the illicit substance. According to the United States Coast Guard, the amount of cocaine traveling through the Caribbean more than tripled from 2010 to 2014, and the volume hasn’t fallen off since. Maritime drug trafficking isn’t new. Regardless, the complexity of the operations are increasing along with the volume of drugs being moved. As long as consumers continue purchasing drugs, traffickers will find a way to get them here.

14 Haitian Police Killed In Gang War This Year, Police Riot

In a continuation of my writing on Haiti’s instability in the Bulletin, we’re met with more news of seven Haitian Police officers gunned down by gangs in the past few weeks. From the struggle that began with food and gas shortages accompanied by already extreme levels of poverty, to the refugee crisis that followed, and eventual devolvement of the society into chaos. At this point it is no secret Haiti is primarily run by gangs controlling territories, some estimates say they currently control 60% of the city, with the government doing its best to maintain whatever foothold it can. This unsurprisingly creates a bit of tension between those in power and those trying to keep it - and resulting in the murder of Harington Rigaud, the director of Haiti’s National Police Academy in a gang-controlled neighborhood of Port-au-Prince just a few months ago. 

The seven officers just killed were during a gang shootout last week, and have resulted in more riots. Hundreds of demonstrators took to the streets burning cars, tires, and blockading streets - some civilian and others police officers denouncing the violence that's taken the lives of 14 police officers this year alone. Some protestors even ventured to the residence of Haiti’s Prime Minister, before realizing he had just returned from a summit in Argentina and was at the airport. Some protestors tried to access the airport smashing windows.

Gangs continue challenging the government for legitimate influence over the island, and seem to be doing so more effectively than the government itself. While the Haitian government was able to convince a powerful gang leader, Jimmy Cherizier - often referred to as “barbecue”, to lift the blockade on Haiti’s key fuel terminal after two months, earlier this year, the citizens appearing to be nearing a breaking point after continued killings of government and city officials further delegitimize the existing government, and worsen the situation for the Haitian people.

Which Way To Lima

Nationwide politically driven unrest in Peru is set to reach its two month mark after the failed self-coup by former president Pedro Castillo on December 7th. Since the Bulletin’s last update the death toll has risen by more than ten. The nation, which has been stricken by a five year long political crisis, appears incredibly divided. Government security forces have ramped up their activity in protest areas. The country’s economy is starting to see the effects of the unrest and as is typical for recent years; Peru’s direction is unclear. 

Timeline Update

As we have discussed in recent Bulletins, the internal response to the arrest of Pedro Castillo was immediate. His supporters have been driven by the belief that his successor, President Dina Boularte, orchestrated a coup against him in conjunction with the United States. Demonstrators have blocked roads, set infrastructure ablaze, and stormed airports. Clashes between them and security forces have been common, with deaths and other injuries being reported routinely. At this time, 60 Peruvians had died as a result of the unrest; one police officer and 59 civilians.

Some events that have occurred since our last update follow:

• 01/16: The Coordinadora Nacional de Derechos Humanos publicly joined those calling for the resignation of President Boluarte. The group is a coalition of Peruvian NGOs that focus on human rights. Additionally, members of the Peruvian National Police (PNP) blocked a caravan of protesters heading to Lima. Demonstrators from across the country have been traveling to the capital city to join in large protests in support of Castillo.

• 01/18: Three more deaths were recorded. A protester was killed during a clash with police in the town of Macusani. During a protest blockade on the North Panamerican highway, a prematurely born baby and a 51-year-old woman, who died of a heart attack, passed away while stuck in traffic.  

• 01/19: A state of emergency was declared in the La Libertad, Amazonas, and Tacna regions for a period of 30 days. 

• 01/21: PNP officers raided the National University of San Marcos and arrested over 200 protesters that had been staying in student dorm rooms for multiple days. University leadership had previously given protesters only one day to stay in the rooms before requesting police action.

• 01/22: The government indefinitely closed Machu Picchu to visitors due to numerous transportation disruptions. Since the arrest of Castillo, hundreds of tourists have been stranded at the Incan ruins multiple times, requiring their rescue by security forces.

• 01/25: Minister of Production, Sandra Belande Arnillas, resigned and was replaced by Raul Perez-Reyes Espejo. The Ministry of Production oversees the production of industry and manufacturing, among other things. For context, Peru is incredibly rich in natural resources and is among the world’s top three silver producers.

• 01/26: Congress strikes down a proposal to advance presidential elections to October 2023. Protests erupt in Lima as a result and a demonstrator is killed after a tear-gas canister fired by police hit them in the head. Victor Raul Santiseban Yacsavilca, 51-years-old, became the first protester to die in the capital city.             

What Happens Next?

It is not clear where Peru goes from here. Congress has so far refused to move elections forward to late-2023. Frankly, right-wing members of Congress probably feel like they did the left-wing Boluarte enough of a favor by moving elections from mid-2026 to mid-2024, undercutting their own terms in office.

Dina Boluarte has consistently refused to resign from office, citing her duty to the people of the country. On the other hand, Boluarte resigning is a main demand of the protest movement. With her remaining in office, and Castillo remaining in custody, there is no reason to believe demonstrations will soon cease. In fact, an escalation by the protest movement is entirely plausible if more developments come from the case against Pedro Castillo². 

Mexico’s Drug War on Trial  

A former top level Mexican government official finds himself on trial in Brooklyn federal court in relation to one of his country’s most notorious drug cartels. Genaro Garcia Luna is accused of taking bribes from and assisting the Sinaloa Cartel (CDS) under its infamous leader, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán.

Who is Garcia Luna? 

Genaro Garcia Luna was born in 1968 in Mexico City. His career in security and intelligence began in the 1980s. From 2001-2006, he was in charge of the Federal Investigation Agency. When President Felipe Calderon took office in December 2006, Luna became his Secretary of Public Safety. 

Under his leadership, the Federal Preventive Police was transformed into the Federal Police (Policía Federal), or “Federales” as they are often referred to in the United States. The transformation was made in large part to combat criminals as part of the Mexican Drug War (2006-Current) and Luna is widely considered to be one of the main architects of the war. The ministry has played a large role in the government's campaign against drug cartels, especially CDS, which we have seen in recent weeks. Luna left office with President Calderon in 2012. 

Alleged Corruption and Crimes

Shortly after Luna left office, Forbes compiled and released a list of “The 10 Most Corrupt Mexicans in 2013”. The justifications for placing Luna on the list include excess spending and abuses of power uncovered by Mexican journalists. The accusations that really earned him a place on the list are the claims that he received payment from high level drug cartel leaders, including “El Chapo” Guzmán, that come from a leader of the Beltrán Leyva Cartel and journalist Anabel Hernandez.

During the trial of El Chapo in 2019, the son of Chapo’s partner Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada testified that he gave Luna briefcases filled with millions of dollars on at least two occasions. At that time, prosecutors with the Eastern District of New York began gathering evidence against Luna, which led to his arrest at the end of 2019.       

In addition to the allegations stemming from El Chapo’s trial, federal prosecutors accuse Luna of passing sensitive intelligence regarding law enforcement action and information on rival cartels to CDS leadership. He is also accused of facilitating the trafficking of thousands of kilograms of cocaine to the United States in exchange for the payment previously described. 

Since the beginning of Luna’s trial, it has been revealed that the Drug Enforcement Agency received evidence regarding the accusations against the official before he left his post in 2012. However, prosecutors in Houston refused to move forward with an indictment, saying that the DEA’s investigation lacked evidence.  

On Trial 

Genaro Garcia Luna’s trial is not receiving much coverage from cable news, despite his alleged role in the distribution of large amounts of narcotics to America’s streets. The trial is, however, being heavily covered by Mexican outlets. 

Luna’s main defense will be that prosecutors have no hard evidence of payments or communications between the former secretary and the Sinaloa Cartel. In regards to witnesses testifying against him, Luna’s lawyer, Cesar de Castro, claims that their testimony is motivated by deals made with American authorities and are fabrications. 

Prosecutors expect the trail to last roughly eight weeks and will see a dozen cartel witnesses testify against Luna. He is the highest level Mexican official to face a trial in the United States and the outcome may set an example for Mexican officials moving forward³.