Bulletin From The Borderlands

01 November 2023

Nov 02, 2023

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Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Kitbag Conversations : A team of retired Marine and Army Intelligence analysts and the founders of the Croatoan Report and Kitbag Conversations, foreign policy and security affairs podcasts. The Team Leader for Bulletin From The Borderlands.

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He is a graduate San Jose State University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the assistant lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

Sino Talk : Sino Talk is China watcher with extensive experience living and studying in China. In another life, he was a Marine intelligence analyst.

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Calisto Report: The Calisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

ALCON S2: A veteran of the New Zealand military intelligence community, if it walks, talks, or crawls in Asia, ALCON S2 knows about it. Cole is the preeminent source of OSINT for the Oceania and South East Asia region.

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate).

Venezuela is the focus for this issue. The country is preparing for next year’s presidential election and the leading opposition candidate is fighting an uphill battle to even appear on the ballot. The country is also trying to assert its claim of territory in Guyana. Some observers fear a Crimea-style annexation may be on the horizon.

Europe : Covered in this issue by Meridian News

As Europe enters its second year of the war in Ukraine, the European continent is experiencing an increasingly unique and challenging conflict. The ongoing ground war on the Russia-Ukraine border is taking a toll on citizens, soldiers, and governments. Belarusian Dictator Aleksander Lukashenko, a crucial Russian ally, has recently called for peace discussions, while Ukrainian citizens demand a cap on mandatory military service orders, while both Russia and Ukraine face difficulties in maintaining troop levels. The besieged city of Avdiivka reflects the challenges of the conflict, and Ukraine has announced it will be increasing its domestic drone production with the help of foreign arms contractors, which could further muddy the waters when it comes to reaching a peace deal. Despite signs of fatigue, support for the war persists, and experts anticipate there is no end in sight.

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by Sino Talk

Taiwan’s Air Force began the Tien Long exercise on October 30th, which will run until November 4th and will verify both pilots and ground units’ capabilities. The KMT and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) agreed to form an informal coalition to work together in the 2024 general elections. China is holding its largest ever Xiangshan Forum, with the country’s Global Security Initiative being used as a blueprint to solve regional disputes being the forum’s focus. Japan’s Defense Ministry will deploy jet aircraft to Australia on a rotational basis to conduct joint exercises with the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF). South Korea’s defense minister testified that North Korea violated the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement near the Five West Sea Islands thousands of times during a parliament session.

The Philippines and the United States agreed to increase military-to-military engagements following the October 22nd incident when two Chinese ships rammed two Philippine vessels near Second Thomas Shoal. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. told newly promoted senior officers to prepare for new emerging threats during a ceremony at the presidential palace. Vietnam recently held the 15th South China Sea International Conference in Ho Chi Minh City to discuss various South China Sea topics and issues. A Lieutenant Colonel from the Papua New Guinea Defense Force (PNGDF) will become the second-in-command for the Australian Army’s 3rd Brigade. The new President of the Maldives Mohamed Muizzu, said the country is negotiating with India for the removal of all Indian troops in the island nation. The Indian Navy is negotiating with France to buy three more Scorpène-class diesel-attack submarines to complement the six submarines it currently operates.

Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by Eric Sheppler

As tensions increase in the Middle East, Israel has begun its ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. Hamas has utilized different types of Small-Unit tactics to help them gain a tactical edge over the Israeli forces as the Israeli Air force has continued the round the clock strike campaign.

Africa: Covered in this issue by the Expeditionary Intelligence Group and Unbiased Conflicts

In Amhara, ethnic violence and rebellion have led to a humanitarian crisis, with the Ethiopian government’s attempt to integrate regional forces causing further unrest. Eritrean involvement and guerrilla warfare in the region have made it difficult to achieve a resolution, which suggests that the country’s deep-rooted ethnic divisions may continue to fuel conflicts in the future.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: Venezuela Eyes Essequibo

Venezuela and Guyana have a long-standing territorial dispute over a region that extends from their internationally recognized border to the Essequibo River. This disagreement dates back centuries, with historical claims by both countries. This and more is covered in our “The Americas” section of the issue.

Strategic Forecast: John M. Larrier - Defense Bulletin

Israel-Hamas War:

We are now in the early stages of Israel’s ground offensive into Gaza. Preceded by weeks of airstrikes, the ground offensive is expected to be a long and arduous endeavor for the IDF. Some big obstacles lie in the way of the IDF in the coming weeks. Calls from the international community to reel in the size and scope of offensive operations can be expected to grow as the fighting in Gaza gets more fierce. The large civilian element combined with the dense nature of the urban environment in Gaza will make differentiating between civilian and foe increasingly hard and hamper the IDF’s ability to maintain adequate situational awareness.

Multiple U.S.-partner nation naval task forces have converged on the region, additional forces have been deployed to augment the force posture in the CENTCOM AOR, and cries for Israel to back down from its limited ground invasion of the Gaza Strip from nations around the world leave many wondering if the conflict will escalate to a conventional war between U.S.-partner nations and other regional powers. As of now the threshold of conventional war has not been breached and regional powers, including Iran, seem content with continuing to operate below this threshold. Barring a major provocation/attack on U.S. forces in the region or a serious miscalculation by any of the involved parties, we can expect the conflict not to morph into regional conventional conflict. As many nations are putting their forces on a heightened state of readiness the prospect for a miscalculation is higher than normal.

Global Forecast:

As conflict rages and tensions rise in the Middle East, Africa has once again fallen into the shadows. The growing humanitarian crises in Egypt at the Rafah crossing and the Amhara region of Ethiopia may signal the further destabilization of Northeast Africa. Specifically in Ethiopia, the sectarian violence shows no signs of stopping and will likely continue to chip away at the government’s control over different states. It’s important to remember that violence in the Tigray region is still ongoing.

In the Indo-Pacific the Chinese have stepped up their aggressive actions against the Philippines. The decision to increase military-to-military engagements with the United States after the incident with Chinese ships near the Second Thomas Shoal indicates the Philippines’ commitment to safeguarding its territorial interests in the South China Sea and will likely turn into even more increased cooperation with the U.S. and other allies and partners in the region. Taiwan’s Tien Long exercise reflects the island’s continued focus on enhancing its defense capabilities, particularly in response to threats from China. Taiwan is likely to seek support and cooperation with other regional partners to bolster its security.

The territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo region is a long-standing and complex issue that remains a potential source of conflict. Recent actions by Venezuela, including the deployment of forces and military infrastructure near the border with Guyana, raise concerns about the escalation of tensions. Venezuela’s interest in the disputed waters, driven by oil exploration, adds an economic dimension to the conflict. The upcoming public referendum in Venezuela regarding the Essequibo issue, along with the threat of a ‘forceful and proportionate’ response from the Venezuelan Defense Minister, suggests a heightened risk of confrontation. The international community should closely monitor this situation, as it has the potential to impact regional stability and may require diplomatic efforts to prevent conflict. Additionally, the involvement of major oil companies and forces from the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) further complicates the situation, emphasizing the need for the careful navigation of this dispute to prevent broader consequences.

The ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, characterized by a grinding stalemate, continues. Governments, citizens, and soldiers on both sides are showing signs of fatigue. The demand for peace discussions from Belarusian Dictator Lukashenko, Russia's main ally in the conflict, underscores the need for a potential resolution that could offer avenues of de-escalation. Ukrainian citizens have begun protests against the extended military service requirements and the stalling of the Ukrainian offensive. This most likely indicates a growing war-weariness among the population. The city of Avdiivka remains a focal point of the conflict, with Russia facing heavy losses and a challenging situation, indicating another potential stalemate, sometimes being compared to the grinding Battle of Bakhmut. In the coming months, it is likely that pressure to find a diplomatic solution will increase, with calls for negotiations intensifying. The war is taking a toll on all involved parties. International observers should closely monitor these developments and anticipate the potential for renewed peace talks or diplomatic initiatives. The war’s protracted nature and its far-reaching implications make it a critical issue for regional and global stability.

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick and a Special Report by Neil Singh

Venezuela Eyes Essequibo

A South American border dispute dating back to the colonial-era is gaining attention again. Venezuela claims roughly two-thirds of Guayana’s territory and some regional observers fear that the former may be preparing for a forcible annexation of that land.

Essequibo Dispute

Venezuela currently claims two-thirds of its neighbor Guyana. The claim begins at the internationally recognized border between the two countries and ends at the Essequibo River, 61,600 sq mi in total. This dispute dates back centuries. The first Europeans to discover the region, known as Essequipo, were led by Juan de Esquivel, who the region is named for, in 1498. In 1581, Dutch travelers established the first trading post in the area and began to colonize the land to the west of the Essequibo River. In the late-1600s, Dutch colonists increasingly established new settlements west of the river, now moving into Guyana Province of Spanish Colonial Venezuela. Throughout the 17th and 18th centuries, Spain maintained that the Essequibo River was the natural border of Venezuela and Dutch Essequibo.

In 1814, Great Britain acquired Dutch land in the region in a treaty. The treaty did not define a western border of now-British Guiana; so in 1835, Britain commissioned Robert Schomburgk to survey the region. Using his survey, the Schomburgk Line became the western boundary of the colony and is still the internationally recognized border. Now-independent Venezuela disputed this border for decades. Invoking the Monroe Doctrine, Venezuela sought help from the United States. Both Venezuela and Great Britain submitted their claims to an American commission and in 1899, that commission ruled that the Schomburgk Line was to remain the boundary.

Venezuela remained displeased with this settlement throughout the 20th century, filing formal complaints in the United Nations and in other venues. Five months after Guyana gained independence from the British, Venezuela occupied and annexed Ankolo Island in 1966. Venezuela maintains that it has always had a legitimate claim to Ankolo and surrounding islands. The country still controls the islands, which house an airport and military base.

At the advice of his mentor Fidel Castro, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez eased tensions with Guyana. While on a visit to Georgetown, Guyana in 2004, Chavez said that he considered the dispute to be resolved. The dispute reignited in 2013 after the Venezuelan Navy captured a vessel that was exploring Guyanese waters for oil on behalf of the government. In 2015, Guyana granted American oil company Exxon a license to drill for oil in disputed waters. Venezuela has the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves while Guyana has the largest per capita crude reserves.

Recent Actions from Venezuela

Further oil exploration in the disputed waters led to back-and-forth retaliatory actions between the two countries and in 2021, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro issued Decree No. 4415, which seeks to reinforce Venezuela’s claim to Essequibo.

In recent weeks, Venezuela has taken actions to assert their territorial claims at both the political and military levels. This is in response to Guyana holding an off-shore oil auction for the first time ever. Venezuela accused Guyana of being a puppet of ExxonMobil and US Southern Command, saying that Guyana is unable to engage in diplomacy for that reason. On December 3rd, Venezuela plans to hold a public referendum regarding Essequibo. Questions include whether or not to recognize the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice in resolving the dispute, grant Venezuelan citizenship to residents of the region, and oppose Guyana’s oil projects in Essequibo.

Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino recently took to social media to threaten a ‘forceful and proportionate’ response to Guyana granting more oil and gas exploration licenses in the disputed waters. The country has also been deploying forces to the border region with Guyana and building military infrastructure in the area. Roughly 200 troops were recently deployed to the border. Guyana has condemned the move, saying that Venezuela is attempting to violate its sovereignty. Venezuela says the forces were deployed to fight illegal mining. The Venezuelan military (FANB) has been clearing land to expand a military post along the Barima River, only a few hundred meters away from the border. The FANB also recently said that it is building a new airstrip “to defend the Essequibo”1.

The Uphill Fight for the Bolivarian Republican

Venezuela is gearing up for a presidential election in 2024. Seeking to oust socialist dictator President Nicolas Maduro, the opposition Unitary Platform chose its candidate on October 22nd. María Corina Machado, a former member of the National Assembly, will be Maduro’s main opposition next year. Since the days of Hugo Chavez, Venezuela has not been known for free and fair elections and Machado has a major hurdle to overcome.

Who Is María Corina Machado?

Machado is the 56-year-old leader of Vente Venezuela, an anti-socialist, classical liberal political party opposed to Nicolas Maduro’s United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). She has earned degrees in finance and industrial engineering. She has founded and served on the boards of multiple foundations and NGOs, including Súmate, an election-monitoring group.

Machado was elected to Venezuela’s unicameral legislature, the National Assembly, in 2010. She served as a member of the center-right Justice First (Primero Justicia) party representing a portion of Miranda. Machado was a leading figure in the opposition to PSUV and Maduro. In February 2014, protests against Maduro’s government broke out across the country due to rising crime and inflation. The protests were sparked by the attempted rape of a university student and they expanded after the arrests and killings of some student demonstrators. Machado became a major leader and organizer of the protest movement along with other opposition figures from the legislature. During the protests, at the request of Panama, Machado went to the Organization of American States (OAS) as an alternative Venezuelan envoy in order to speak about the unrest. Pro-Maduro representatives, who controlled the National Assembly, said that Machado’s appearance at the OAS went against the constitution and for that reason she was expelled in March 2014.

Facing Maduro

In August 2022, Machado confirmed her intent to participate in the 2023 presidential primary election for the Unitary Platform, an opposition coalition of which Vente Venezuela is a member. On June 30th, 2023, the Comptroller General of Venezuela disqualified her from holding public office for 15 years at the request of Jose Brito, another assemblyman. The Comptroller accused Machado of supporting sanctions and the alleged crimes of then-opposition leader Juan Guaido during the presidential crisis from 2019 to January 2023. This is despite the fact that Machado did not hold public office during these years.

Venezuela has been under crippling US sanctions since the beginning of the presidential crisis in 2019. The country’s oil industry, which is crucial to its economy, faced the heaviest sanctions. In mid-October, the Biden Administration made a deal with Maduro’s government. In exchange for Maduro promising to reverse bans on opposition figures and release political prisoners, including US citizens, the Treasury Department would ease some sanctions. Notably, Venezuela is now allowed to produce and export oil to the markets of its choosing for the next six months without limits. Sanctions relief was put into effect without Maduro making good on his end of the deal. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the administration has given Maduro until the end of November to begin complying with the sanctions relief agreement.

Despite the threats of some anonymous State Department officials to roll back sanctions relief, it does not appear that Maduro intends to fully comply with the deal. On October 30th, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice suspended the Unitary Platform’s primary process and the election results. It also ordered primary organizers to hand over documents detailing the information of 2.4 million Venezuelans that voted. This has reignited fears that some Venezuelans have had over retaliation against opposition voters. In 2004, a pro-regime assemblyman posted the names of millions of people online that signed a petition to recall President Hugo Chavez. Some of the people that were outed by the lawmaker say that they lost government jobs and assistance after the incident. In addition to the action by the high court, Prosecutor General Tarek William Saab has also opened an investigation into the opposition primary commission on the suspicion of money laundering, theft, and other crimes2.

Another Year in the American Century: 1 Year Forecast

Something strange lurks under the surface of the American economy of 2023. Polling reveals that a large majority of Americans generally believe that the economy is in a poor state, yet traditional indicators of the state of the union seem to tell a story of unmitigated successes over the past four quarters. Unemployment, traditionally the vanguard of good economic news for Americans, reached the lowest level it has been in over 50 years. The fact that such a critical indicator as to the health of the American economy is so untethered from polling about how Americans feel about the economy is a diversion from decades of data trends. Understanding this “vibecession”, as economist Kyla Scanlon termed it in 2022, is critical to forecasting consumer trends and the health of the American economy going forward.

In econometric history, the strength of the American economy has always been high consumption and technological dynamism resulting in rapid productivity gain. Consumption, commonly defined as “the use of goods and services by a household”, is the largest chunk of gross domestic product (GDP), and traditionally, a fall in consumption practically guarantees that a recession is either ongoing or on the horizon. Consumer sentiment tracking, as done by the University of Michigan, has always risen and fallen in tune with consumption, which in turn has risen and fallen in tune with GDP growth. So, the question becomes, does this shift in sentiment reflect likely downward turns in consumption and GDP growth within the year? Major forecasters like those at Bloomberg Economics seemed to think so in 2022, but the following year instead provided unmatched job creation, with millions of jobs being created and the highest percentage of prime-age people participating in the economy seen in decades.

In fact, consumption itself has risen quarter over quarter, leading to the US having a jaw dropping GDP growth rate of 4.9% over Q3 of 2023. It’s likely that instead of consumer sentiment heralding a recession, this reduced opinion of the state of the economy reflects a profound discomfort with the changing fundamentals of the economy. Even if inflation comes to normal rates, consumers will rationally take time adjusting to far higher baseline costs for things like groceries, even though wage growth has stayed above or at pace with price growth.

These changing fundamentals, along with the blockbuster statistics of the past year, seem to be pointing towards the development of the strongest economy the United States has seen in decades. These changes, though difficult to track and even harder to explain all the variables of, can also be seen in the changing drivers of economic growth. While the US has seen a great deal of increase in economic activity, the giants of the past decade seem to be slouching. The titans of the tech industry have seen reduced profits, and mass layoffs, simultaneous to the greatest increases in wages among the poor seen this century. Instead, the spearhead of the economy seems to be shifting towards manufacturing, with record investments into factory construction and natural resources industries producing at record rates. Phenomena which defined the American economy since the Great Recession, like unchangingly high-income inequality and low manufacturing investments, are no longer the norm. This is likely due to the advent of supply chain disruptions from war in Ukraine and the Middle East, and heightened interest rates. Even despite the growing pains of inflation, which is only now beginning to stabilize, the United States is on a road to a position of prosperity not found among its peers. The rapid pace of introduction of new technologies like AI will cause unpredictable effects, as will the extremely fluid geopolitical environment, but the outlook of the American economy is looking very bright3.

Looking Forward

Whether or not Maduro will allow the opposition to participate in next year’s election depends on how willing the Biden Administration is to reimpose sanctions for failure to comply with the recent deal. Maduro will continue to suppress political opposition as long as he feels that the United States is too weak and/or uninterested to enforce the terms of the agreement. In regards to Essequibo, some observers are concerned that what we are seeing in terms of political and military actions by Venezuela mirrors the actions of Russia just before it annexed Crimea in 2014. Guyana has requested urgent aid from the International Court of Justice to stop Venezuela from holding the December 3rd referendum; but in all reality, the ICJ has no meaningful enforcement mechanisms in that regard. No large-scale mobilization of security forces has been observed on the Venezuelan side of the border. However, Venezuela might not need a large force if it makes the move to forcibly annex Essequibo. In terms of equipment and manpower, the FANB outmatches the Guyana Defense Forces heavily. Venezuela also has the advantage of Russian and Iran trainers embedded within its units. US Southern Command has been conducting joint patrols with the GDF recently due to the threat to Guyana’s sovereignty. Russia and Iran may be interested in aiding Venezuela if they perceive a potential conflict to be a proxy war with the United States.

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