Bulletin From The Borderlands

1 August 2023

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Kitbag Conversations : A team of retired Marine and Army Intelligence analysts and the founders of the Croatoan Report and Kitbag Conversations, foreign policy and security affairs podcasts. The Team Leader for Bulletin From The Borderlands.

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He attends San Jose State University and is pursuing a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the assistant lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

Sino Talk : Sino Talk is China watcher with extensive experience living and studying in China. In another life, he was a Marine intelligence analyst. 

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Callisto Report: The Callisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

ALCON S2: A veteran of the New Zealand military intelligence community, if it walks, talks, or crawls in Asia, ALCON S2 knows about it. Cole is the preeminent source of OSINT for the Oceania and South East Asia region.

Sponsors

The Bulletin is brought you to by PB Abbate, Fieldseats.com, and JFT Defense Solutions.

As you likely know, Lethal Minds Journal shares common ancestry with Patrol Base Abbate, one of the most impactful veteran’s outreach organizations in America. One of the ways in which we connect is through a love of the written word, a belief in the power of good writing to help give a voice to people who need to be heard, and a desire to help service members and vets connect through self-expression. This summer, Sebastian Junger, award winning writer of War, Tribe, and Freedom (amongst others), will join the Patrol Base Abbate Book Club in Montana for their annual Return to Base Program. From June 22nd-26th, members of the Book Club will spend a few days discussing literature while they reconnect with nature and other veterans at Patrol Base Abbate’s PB in Thompson Falls, Montana. Details about eligibility are at https://www.pbabbate.org/rtb-application-0-0.

Fieldseats.com is an e-commerce, federally licensed firearms dealer that provides virtual reviews on brand new firearms. At the end of the review they give away the firearm being reviewed to an attendee!

Each item reviewed is given away for free as a part of their promotion for purchasing what they call a “Field Review.” Currently, they’ve got Field Reviews up ranging from $20 for a brand new Smith & Wesson M&P Shield 2.0 to $65 for a new IWI Galil ACE GEN II. Each review is limited to around 38 people, so your chances of winning the giveaway is that much higher!

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AGIS Solutions

At Agis Solutions, our mission is to provide unparalleled protective and intelligence services to our clients, ensuring their safety and security in an ever-changing world. We strive to deliver customized, confidential solutions that exceed expectations, utilizing our expertise in risk assessment, threat analysis, and intelligence gathering to mitigate potential risks and provide proactive solutions. Our commitment to excellence, professionalism, and integrity is paramount in all our operations, and we continuously strive to stay ahead of emerging threats to provide the highest level of service to our clients. Our goal is to provide peace of mind, allowing our clients to focus on their business and personal pursuits with the knowledge that their safety and security are in the most capable hands.

Agis Solutions aims to be the new benchmark for private security and intelligence firms. We achieve this by working collaboratively and effectively as a team to provide the highest duty of care to our clients, by being adaptable to changing circumstances enabling us to provide tailored solutions to our diverse client industries, and by staying at the forefront of the industry by utilizing innovative technologies and techniques. Currently, Agis Solutions offers turnkey security services including executive protection, site security, risk mitigation services, threat intelligence, ad-hoc intelligence reporting, and much more. Additionally, Agis Solutions is the sole distributor for Trigger’s Reports risk and asset management monitoring software for the western hemisphere allowing them to bring cutting-edge data-driven risk analytics and monitoring to markets that need it most.  

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate). 

Gang-driven crime is still a common theme in Haiti. While the international community has been trying to support the government without getting directly involved, one country says it’s willing to step up and lead the fight. In South America, Iran is forming relationships with the political left to sustain its “axis of resistance” against the United States. In Guatemala, uncertainty around the upcoming run-off presidential election remains an issue..

Europe : Covered in this issue by Calisto Report and Defense Bulletin

Ukraine’s counteroffensive enters its second phase. Ukraine has also kept up a consistent barrage on Russian rear areas with long range precision fires, as its forces begin to make incremental but increasingly significant gains.

In Western Europe, wildfires continue to blaze out of control across Italy and Greece, triggering mass evacuations not only of domestic populations but also of the swathes of migrants that have fled to those countries over the past year.

In France, protests against the Macron government seem to finally be dying down, but his unpopularity remains deeply entrenched.

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by Sino Talk and ALCON S2

Taiwan completed its annual Han Kuang exercise where it tested several scenarios such as airport takeovers and the use of ad-hoc airstrips on the island’s eastern part. Qin Gang was dismissed as Foreign Minister but retained his State Councilor position, indicating any investigations are still ongoing. China has also restarted production of the Type 728/Zubr-Class amphibious assault hovercraft. Japan and France completed its first joint air exercise to increase security ties and interoperability. Japan also continued to monitor the fleet of Chinese and Russian naval vessels as they conducted military exercises around its home islands. North Korea unveiled new Unmanned Aerial Vehicles that closely resemble the MQ-9 Reaper and the RQ-4 Global Hawk. 

The Philippines and the United States met in Manila to develop a roadmap for long-term military assistance to the Philippines. The Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines informally proposed that both countries hold joint exercises during a meeting. 

Australia awarded the South Korean company Hanwha to produce 129 Redback Infantry Fighting Vehicles. The United States will assist Australia in developing guided multiple rocket systems by 2025 during a high-level defense and foreign affairs meeting. The U.S. Secretary of Defense recently concluded his visit to Papua New Guinea and met with leaders to discuss implementing the Defense Cooperation Agreement. Tuvalu will receive two multipurpose vessels from the Taiwanese Coast Guard to help patrol its waters against illegal fishing. The Indian Navy’s guided missile corvette INS Khanjar recently completed a three-day exercise with the Sri Lankan Navy to increase interoperability between the two organizations.

Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by S2 Fwd

Iran and Kuwait-Saudi Arabia continue to increase tensions within the Strait of Hormuz over a large contested natural gas field. Additionally, Turkey continues to target Kurdish militant groups in Iraq and Syria, including the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. Lastly, China conducts first-time exercises with the UAE while the US bolsters security in the Strait of Hormuz.

Africa: Covered in this issue by the Expeditionary Intelligence Group

The biggest story out of Africa for this bulletin will be covering the ongoing coup in Niger. On July 26, 2023, Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani, the head of Niger’s presidential guard, with other members of Niger’s armed forces, declared himself head of a transitional government he called “the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland,” ousting democratically elected President Bazoum. At the time of writing the coup is still underway with President Bazoum refusing to give up power. Western media has claimed that President Bazoum still and will remain in power, however, the situation on the ground seemingly reflects an opposing course.

Additionally, we will be providing a second SITREP on how the conflict in Sudan has further exacerbated humanitarian crises and is creating a refugee crisis the likes Sudan has not witnessed in a long time. As far as the rest of Africa it seems most of the nations are watching to see what happens in Niger. Some countries have already shown support for the transitional government such as Burkina Faso and Mali, while countries such as Nigeria are calling for Niger President Bazoum to be restored to power.

The Big Points:

Defense Bulletin

The Highlight: East Asia Under The Radar  

 As drones hit Moscow, Ukraine renews its counteroffensive, and unrest envelopes Africa, important developments in the far east/Pacific have gone almost unnoticed. The North Koreans unveiled new drones that have some U.S. doppelgängers. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and a Chinese envoy attended the late night military parade with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un. Agreements between the country and Russia on ammunition supply have been struck. Simultaneously, Western countries are sending seized caches of North Korean munitions to Ukraine. Meanwhile the U.S. approved an aid package to Taiwan  valued at $300 million as China declared a NOTAM for live fire exercises off of Hainan Island that covers key maritime routes. Scheduled between July 28th and August 2nd.

Fight For Influence In The Global South Intensifies 

As Russia continues its “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine, Iran makes overtures in South America, China makes inroads into the Middle East & Indo-Pacific, and power changes hands in Niger, one thing is clear. The competition for influence over the Global South has taken a new turn. In the years leading up to the ongoing Russo-Ukraine War experts hailed the advent of Great Power Competition (GPC).

A key aspect of GPC that the war has brought to light is the myriad of non-great power nations that make up the majority of the world. These nations are key components in any great power’s foreign policy. Many of them straddle the “geopolitical fence” and seek to benefit from multiple great powers simultaneously. One thing can be guaranteed when looking at the future of the geopolitical sphere. Small nations that make up the Global South will play key roles in bolstering the legitimacy, power projection, and influence of great powers.

See Also:

• Hungary’s ruling party denies Sweden NATO membership in parliamentary vote.

• Drug traffickers in Seattle Washington conduct complex IED attack on competitors.

• The US and Australia sign security cooperation agreements to deepen military ties, including the transfer and sale of advanced missile systems to the Australian military.

• Wagner troops continue to train Belarusian forces. Poland has mobilized armored forces toward its eastern border, accusing Wagner of preparing provocation in the Suwałki Gap.

• Russia has begun mining the Black Sea as part of its withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal, but has promised to provide African states with grain for free. Ethiopia has refused to accept Russian grain.

• Niger’s government has been overthrown in a military coup.

• The US and the Taliban have held their first talks since the fall of the Afghan government. The Taliban seeks the release of $10 billion in frozen national assets.

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick

Help Wanted, Signed - Haiti’s Government

Lawlessness continues to plague the Caribbean nation of Haiti. While a recent kidnapping of two foreigners has hit the newswaves, embassies are beginning to disengage from Haiti, and talks of deploying an international peacekeeping force may be making actual progress.

Abductions & Gang Violence

On the morning of July 27th, Alix Dorsainvil, an American from New Hampshire, was kidnapped with her daughter near the capital city of Port-au-Prince. Dorsainvil is a nurse with El Rol Haiti, a Christian humanitarian aid organization. She is also the wife of El Hol Haiti’s director, Sandro Dorsainvi. 

Dorsainvil moved from New Hampshire to Haiti after she was invited by her husband to work at the organization's pre K-12 school, which has 390 students enrolled. She was taken while providing aid to the school’s students near the capital. Just before she was taken, the State Department warned Americans to depart Haiti due to the “recent armed clashes between gangs and the police and the high threat of violent crime and kidnapping throughout Port-au-Prince”. Gangs are known to target foreigners for abduction, especially Americans. 

Street gangs are rampant in Haiti and can be very powerful; even more so than the government. Some gangs have deep ties to politicians and police as well. The gang issue in Haiti is one that we have spoken about before. The two largest gangs in the capital, G-9 and G-Pep, have been in the middle of a brutal two year war for control of the city. Entire neighborhoods are sometimes cut off from the outside world and thousands have been killed in the fighting. Civilians are oftentimes caught in the crossfire between the two gangs and police as well. If you want some more information on this issue, you can check out the work of photojournalist and friend of the Bulletin, Collin Mayfield.

On the same day that Alix Dorsainvil was taken, the US Embassy in Port-au-Prince announced a major drawdown. All non-emergency staff and family members have been ordered to leave Haiti, leaving a skeleton crew to provide emergency services to Americans in the country. This came after a round of gang clashes in the capital led dozens of families to flee their homes and camp-out in front of the embassy. A special police unit dispersed the crowd, which included children and pregnant women, with tear gas. The families eventually took refuge in a nearby school. 

Outside Help 

As we have spoken about before, the Haitian government is almost powerless in fighting the violence that plagues the country. The police are underequipped, undermanned, and many times unmotivated to combat the gangs. Additionally, corruption is rampant among the force and “police gangs” (exactly what it sounds like) are not uncommon. 

Acting President & Prime Minister Ariel Henry has asked for an international force to be deployed to assist his officers. This request has been supported by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and the United States, but Haiti has an unpleasant past with foreign armed forces. Jamaica has offered to deploy a military contingent and some African nations have offered to deploy police officers. However, nine months after the request by Henry was made, no country has offered to lead a potential force, until now. 

Last week, Kenya offered to lead a multinational force in Haiti. The East African nation said that it will deploy 1,000 law enforcement officers to the nation once its offer to lead the force is accepted. The force of 1,000 officers would “help train and assist Haitian police restore normalcy in the country and protect strategic installations", according to Alfred Mutua, the Secretary of Foreign & Diaspora Affairs. Mutua also said that an assessment mission will take place “within the next few weeks” to determine the operational requirements of the deployment. However, the proposal still must be approved by the UN Security Council and the Haitian government before any deployment happens. Kenyan security forces do have recent experience in peacekeeping missions in Somalia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Before Kenya made this proposal public, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that progress was being made in terms of establishing a multinational force and that an update regarding the effort would be announced soon. Haiti has not yet commented on the proposal¹.    

From the Deserts to the Andes

A recent visit by Bolivia’s Defense Minister to a Middle Eastern nation has sparked concern from regional parties and the United States. As US influence in Latin America falters, its adversaries are making moves into the region.

Bolivia-Iran Deal

Two weeks ago, Bolivian Defense Minister Edmundo Novillo visited Iran for a bi-lateral meeting. During that visit, a memorandum of understanding was signed by the two countries regarding defense technology. A major topic was the interest of Bolivia in buying Iranian drones. The country's UAVs have become popular in the Middle East and now with their widespread use by Russian forces in Ukraine, countries in other regions are looking at them with curiosity. Novillo says that the drones would be used to protect Bolivia’s border from smugglers and improve military surveillance in mountainous areas.

After news of these memorandums was released, Iranian Defense Minister, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, said that “Latin American countries are of special significance in Iran’s foreign and defense policy based on the importance of [the] very sensitive South American region”. 

Concerns 

When asked about the situation, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the Biden administration is “concerned about any export of Iranian technology that can be destabilizing.” He also referenced US sanctions on Iran when saying, “We urge all nations, no matter where they are, to carefully consider before they enter into defense arrangements with a nation like Iran.” 

Additional concern also came from American think tanks, such as the Critical Threats Project. Annika Ganzeveld, an Iran analyst for the think tank, said that, “President Ebrahim Raisi has shown a greater interest in developing relations with South American countries than his predecessor”. This includes drones being built in Venezuela with Iran’s help. 

The political opposition in Bolivia and Argentina’s Foreign Ministry demanded information on the signed memorandum as well. Argentina in particular is weary of an Iranian presence in the region. Prosecutors in the country have long claimed that Iran played a key role in the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people. That bombing was carried out by Hezbollah, a Lebanese terrorist group and political party that is widely seen as an Iranian proxy. Iran has denied involvement in that attack. The Bulletin recently released a Special Report on Hezbollah’s activities in Latin America that was written by South America News.  

Defense Minister Novillo dismissed Argentina’s concerns, saying they were “exaggerated” and came from an unnamed Argentine lawmaker who, according to him, “has Israeli origins”. Former Bolivian president Evo Morales also dismissed concerns, particularly those of the United States. He criticized the “interventionist attitude of the US that, with double standards, tries to question Bolivia’s interest in acquiring drones from Iran.” He added that, “Historically, the US lives from wars, provoking conflicts to divide countries and plundering their natural resources. The free peoples have recovered our sovereignty and dignity, and we are not going to submit to the designs of imperialism”. Despite being out of office, Morales still leads the governing Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) party and is a leading figure for Latin America's populist left. He is especially popular among the indigenous communities of the Andean nations². 

Red Light, Green Light in Guatemala

Just as we spoke about in our last issue, election related drama continues in Guatemala as anti-establishment candidate Bernardo Arévalo poses a real threat to Sandra Torres, former first lady who is widely seen as the establishment candidate. The two are set to face off in the second round of the 2023 presidential election on August 20th in a match-up that took many by surprise. 

Where Things Stand

We previously detailed some legal trouble that Moviemiento Semilla, the party which Arévalo represents, has faced. A lower-tier court and Attorney General Maria Consuelo Porras have been trying to suspend Semilla’s involvement in the election, claiming that the party used falsified signatures to get itself on the ballot. Semilla was initially suspended, but the Guatemalan Constitutional Court overruled the move, allowing Arévalo to continue his campaign. 

Despite the Constitutional Court’s ruling, Porras and Judge Fredy Orrelana of the lower-tier court lobbied the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) to suspend Semilla. Those efforts were unsuccessful and Orrelana ordered a police search of both Semilla’s headquarters and the offices of the TSE. Additionally, two senior members of the TSE have been criminally charged for allegedly violating Orrelana’s court order that suspended Semilla. The tribunal has since filed a motion to the Constitutional Court against Porras and seven other government officials. That motion claims that the eight officials violated the “Democratic State of Law by not guaranteeing the exercise of the functions of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal”. The TSE seeks to prevent those officials from taking actions related to the election³.

Looking Forward

We still don’t know if Haiti or the UN will accept Kenya’s offer at leading a multinational force; but at this point it is the only nation that has been willing to step up and offer the Haitian Police something more than armored trucks and radios. US authorities are continuing to search for the Dorsainvils, but no progress has been announced as of July 31st. Looking elsewhere in the region, opposition to the United States is becoming a common theme. Iran is looking to capitalize on that by working with Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. While Bolivia will not likely be an active participant in some sort of military alliance against the US, the governing MAS party is friendly to these countries and sympathetic to their views on “US imperialism”. What Iran really needs is an avenue to sell their weapons and compete against US influence, this relationship with Bolivia gives them both of those things. Additionally, Iran will seek to sell the drones to other countries around the world. A foreign IRGC commander claimed last year that 22 countries had submitted requests for Iranian drones. The course of Guatemala’s next election may depend on the Constitutional Court and how it decides on the motion brought forth by the TSE. The court has already ruled in favor of Semilla once, so it very well might again. Protests in support of Arévalo have also broken out around Guatemala. Government buildings in Guatemala City are where attention is drawn to in particular. Any further legal action against Arévalo, or a loss in the run-off, could trigger more protests from Guatemalans that are tired of what they see as the status quo in government.