Bulletin From The Borderlands

15 October 2023

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Given pressing news in Israel, we are making most of the sections of this Bulletin accessible to our whole audience.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Kitbag Conversations : A team of retired Marine and Army Intelligence analysts and the founders of the Croatoan Report and Kitbag Conversations, foreign policy and security affairs podcasts. The Team Leader for Bulletin From The Borderlands.

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He is a graduate San Jose State University with a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the assistant lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

Sino Talk : Sino Talk is China watcher with extensive experience living and studying in China. In another life, he was a Marine intelligence analyst. 

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Calisto Report: The Calisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events

The Defense Bulletin: Defense Bulletin is run by John M Larrier. As a civilian, I’ve closely followed strategic developments for close to a decade, but “launched” the Bulletin during the pullout in Afghanistan due to the extreme nature of the misinformation I saw my peers as well as others reading into. The lacuna that the general populace has about these now very prevalent subjects is the stated goal for Defense Bulletin

ALCON S2: A veteran of the New Zealand military intelligence community, if it walks, talks, or crawls in Asia, ALCON S2 knows about it. Cole is the preeminent source of OSINT for the Oceania and South East Asia region.

Sponsors

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As you likely know, Lethal Minds Journal shares common ancestry with Patrol Base Abbate, one of the most impactful veteran’s outreach organizations in America. One of the ways in which we connect is through a love of the written word, a belief in the power of good writing to help give a voice to people who need to be heard, and a desire to help service members and vets connect through self-expression.

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate). 

Despite his victory, Guatemalan President-elect Bernardo Arévalo is still fighting an uphill battle to secure his inauguration in January. The current president remains silent while his attorney general does everything she can to keep Arévalo from power. On the other hand, the people are mobilizing for Arévalo and their momentum is growing.

Europe : Covered in this issue by Meridian News and Shep. 

The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia remains burning hot with Russia’s ongoing and relentless assault on the city of  Avdiivka, a key city in northeastern Ukraine. The assault highlights the longevity of today’s war, with roots stemming from Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the ensuing conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Simultaneously, France grapples with a growing security threat as recent acts of violent terrorism and bomb threats prompt the deployment of 7,000 troops across the nation. These incidents, attributed to Islamist motivations, compound a series of past attacks, pushing France to heighten security measures especially in anticipation of hosting major sporting events like the Rugby World Cup and the forthcoming Olympic Games, underlining the pressing need for stringent security precautions amidst daily escalations of force in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas.

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by Sino Talk

Taiwan’s interior minister said the decision to build a bridge linking the Chinese city of Xiamen to Taiwan’s Kinmen Island will be put to a national referendum. A recent Taiwanese poll indicates more than half of the island’s voters support a new political party in control of the presidency and legislative Yuan. China extended an investigation into Taiwan’s trade barriers three months before the island’s general elections. General Liu Zhenli will likely head the Chinese contingent at the upcoming Xiangshan Forum in late October. Japan’s Defense Ministry will begin buying Tomahawk cruise missiles beginning next year due to the ‘worsening regional security environment.’ North Korea sent over 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions to Russia in return for the country sending containers likely filled with aircraft and other advanced technologies. 

The Philippine military is in the final stages of preparing for a joint counterterrorism and special forces exercise with Australia called Dawn Caracha to be held from October 16^th to 27^th in Palawan. The Indonesian President stressed to his cabinet that defense spending related to the country’s modernization must be done wisely. The Thai government extended the emergency security decree in its southern border provinces for another three months to combat the ongoing Malay Muslim insurgency. The Australian military participated with Malaysian, New Zealand, Singaporean, and the British militaries in Exercise Bersama Lima 2023. The Indian military issued a warning to its personnel and other members of the country’s defense establishment regarding the need to adhere to the Official Secrets Act over several recent leaks.

Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by the S2 Fwd

Israel has been embroiled in a bloody war with Hamas after the terrorist organization launched a multi-pronged attack against IDF service members and civilians. Publicized kidnapping and torture of civilians sparked international outrate, while still garnering support from Middle Eastern countries and sympathizers abroad. This war has resulted in the deaths of thousands on each side, and has the capacity to draw the US into a conflict with Iranian-backed militias across the Middle East.

Africa: Covered in this issue by the Expeditionary Intelligence Group

Drone strikes targeted the Wagner Group-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, with Ukrainian elements suspected to be involved. Ukrainian military sources hinted at their potential involvement. An investigation revealed Ukrainian drones and tactics in the strikes, raising questions about Ukraine's role. This potential expanded Ukrainian presence in Sudan could impact the Russo-Ukraine War, diverting Russian resources.  Russia might view this as a threat, prompting adjustments in its alliances and military presence, affecting the regional balance and intensifying the Russo-Ukraine War.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: Hamas Stages Largest Attack On Israel Since The Yom Kippur War

The Palestinian terror group Hamas has attacked Israel in a combined arms, air land and sea assault that has killed thousands and resulted in the hostage taking of hundreds of Israeli civilians and military personnel. This attack, purportedly planned by Iran, Iran’s regional proxy Hezbollah, and the Hamas leadership, represents the single most successful asymmetric attack on Israel in its history.

Strategic Forecast: Lethal Minds

The Hamas attack represents a unification of the Palestinian insurgent movements, and an effective end to a possible diplomatic settlement for the Palestinian people. By achieving tremendous initial success, by taking hostages and extracting them back to Gaza, and by further ensuring that the IDF would besiege Gaza in order to get the hostages back, Hamas has become the standard bearer organization for Palestinian Liberation insurgent movements.

So what does this mean? Israel will have to go into Gaza. Hamas will force the IDF to fight a street battle in the single most densely populated urban environment on Earth. The IDF has not had real success in going into Gaza previously, and while they are committing the full force of the Israeli military against Hamas, it happens at a time when the major insurgent groups throughout the region are rushing to aid Hamas and attack Israeli territory.

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick

Uncertainty in Post-Election Guatemala 

In the aftermath of a divisive and surprising result in the recent presidential election, Guatemala has been dealing with widespread civil unrest. Bernardo Arévalo, widely seen as the underdog, defeated former First Lady Sanda Torres in August. He is set to be sworn in as Guatemala’s next president in mid-January, but there is some resistance to his inauguration. 

Arévalo’s Road to Victory

Arévalo’s Moviemiento Semilla faced an uphill battle during the presidential campaign. On top of challenging the establishment candidate Sanda Torres, the party was accused of falsifying voter signatures to get itself on the ballot. That accusation was used by the Attorney General Maria Consuelo Porras and Judge Fredy Orrelana to have Arévalo’s campaign suspended. However, both the Guatemalan Supreme Court and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) sided with Arévalo and his suspension was reversed. On August 20th, Arévalo won a landslide victory against Torres, winning almost 61% of the vote.      

Obstacles and Reactions

Despite Arévalo’s victory, his party was suspended by the TSE just hours after the results were finalized. Attorney General Porras’ office has kept its investigation into Arévalo the party open. This has effectively kept Arévalo from conducting a transition before his inauguration.  

Arévalo has referred to the attempts at keeping him from taking office as a “coup d'etat". He has publicly called on current President Alejandro Giammattei to seek Porras’ resignation and accused him of standing on the sidelines. In a letter, Arévalo told Giammattei, “During this entire process you, Dr Giammattei, have been silent. The people have interpreted your silence as consent to the undermining of our democratic institutions. Your silence is an insult to the Guatemalan people".

For the past two weeks in the country, protests in support of Arévalo have been growing. On Monday, the 9th, they turned violent. Masked men began throwing stones and breaking the windows of the National Palace of Culture in Guatemala City. Napoleón Barrientos Girón, a government official, says that protests were “infiltrated” by a group of 200 people seeking to cause chaos. Protests have blocked roads across the country, which has led to shortages of fuel, food, and other essentials for some remote areas.

Luis Pacheco, an indigenous leader in the country is a major force behind the protests. The 48 indigenous communities that he represents are asking for Porras, one of her lead prosecutors, and Judge Orellana to need to resign or be removed from their positions. Pacheco says that his communities see the effort to block Arévalo from taking office as an attack on their rights. They are particularly angered by a police raid on Semilla’s office during the campaign season. That move was seen as an attempt to subvert their voting power. Pacheco made it clear that even if Arévalo supported an end to the protests on his behalf, that does not mean that they would end without their objective being met¹.

Looking Forward

Bernardo Arévalo faces serious opposition to taking power in January. Given Latin America's rocky relationship with elections and peaceful transitions of power, one can easily see a situation in which Arévalo doesn't become president. This is especially true when taking President Alejandro Giammattei's lack of interest in the subject. Latin America watchers will be following the situation closely to judge the  status of democracy in the region.

Europe

Meridian News and Shep

The strategically important Ukrainian City of Avdiivka is under relentless Russian Assault

In the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, the most recent relentless assault on the front lines is taking place in the North Eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. It is located north of the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk and is currently under its sixth day of assault from rockets, artillery, and ground attacks. President Zelenskiy of Ukraine wrote on Telegram “Avdiivka. We are holding our ground. It is Ukrainian courage and unity that will determine how this war will end,” further showcasing the devastating consequences of the ongoing territorial disputes in the region. 

This isn’t the first major assault on Avdiivka, the city has been on Russia’s radar for  years prior to the full-scale war that broke out last year. Existing tensions [primarily stem from Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine. The city of Avdiivka, situated near the separatist-controlled Donetsk region, became a focal point of the conflict. It’s clear the city has felt the impacts of the ongoing border disputes for years, with the pre-war population of 32,000 dropping to only 1,600 remaining residents.

The assault on Avdiivka, comes in the midst of the Ukrainian military’s counter offensive. Russia identified Avdiivka as a soft point in Ukraine’s front line where they could “turn the tide of fighting” according to Oleksandr Shtupun, a Ukrainian spokesperson. Other Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) sources have indicated Russia is taking villages to the North and South of Avdiivka, likely trying to encircle the city in an effort to cut off the city from supply lines. 

The attack is marked by heavy shelling, with the head of Aviivka’s military administration saying “They are firing from everything they have available,” as part of larger Russian efforts to cause shortages of essential supplies like water, food, and medical aid, leaving the city’s inhabitants vulnerable to additional hardships. 

The ongoing offensive in Avdiivka indicates that the Russian Military has no intention of slowing its campaign, even given Ukraines recent counterassault. Russia’s United Nations ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, even said earlier this week that  “Russian troops, for several days now, switched over to active combat actions practically throughout the entire front line…The so-called Ukrainian counteroffensive can therefore be considered finished,”. Whether, or how long, Ukrainian forces will be able to withstand the relentless bombardment and assault they’re undergoing in Avdiivka is yet to be seen. Aviidvka’s proximity to Donetsk and other Russian occupied land make it an easy choice for the Russian military as they work to take more and more land. 

France deploys 7,000 troops amidst fears of more violent attacks

Earlier this week, and only a day after French President Emmanuel Macron publicly urged the citizens of France to not bring the Israel-Hamas conflict home, a 20 year old man stabbed a teacher to death while wounding two others in what has since been condemned as “barbaric Islamic terrorism” by Macron. This all occurred underlined by the recent reignition conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas that has already claimed thousands of lives in the region.

France has been consistently targeted by Islamist attacks of the years, from the 2015 assault on Paris by armed Islamic militants to the beheading of a teacher in 2020 for his use of cartoons and images depicting  the Prophet Mohammad. This attack appears to have been similarly motivated.

Only a day after the most recent stabbing attack, a bomb threat to the Louvre forced museum goers to be evacuated. The same day, the Palace of Versailles, and Lyon’s train station received bomb threats as well and had visitors evacuated. In response, President Macron made the  decision to deploy up to 7,000 soldiers nationwide to increase security and France itself was placed on its highest available security alerts. 

With France set to host the Rugby World Cup through the end of October and the Olympic games a bit under a year away, these attacks and threats raise serious concerns for French officials. While Macron is clearly taking strides to protect civilians and putting necessary protections in place, we’ll  be paying close attention to how the Israel-Hamas conflict develops, and whether tensions continue to spill over to other nations in increasingly extreme ways.

Looking Forward

The war in Ukraine is approaching its second year of active fighting, all underlined by years of less-frequent conflict along Crimea not far from where the city of Avdiivka sits. Avdiivka is situated on a small peninsula of Ukrainian held land with Russian occupied (or at least contested) land to its North and South. Russian Officials claim that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has stalled and they are regaining momentum, their multi-day assault on Aviddiva certainly backs that theory up. However, it's long been clear that Russia’s soldiers are demotivated, and more importantly dwindling in numbers. It’s unclear whether Russia actually has the manpower distributed appropriately at this point to gain a significant advantage and cut off Avdiivka from the rest of Ukraine. 

As far as the attacks in France, they are clearly a reaction to the flaring tensions between Israel and Hamas. France has a large population of Muslim inhabitants (nearly 10%) and has a history of being targeted by extremists, even of the recent stabbing and multiple bomb threats across the nations. This combined with their proclivity in upcoming months to host major world events could create the perfect target for Islamic extremists. Much of this will likely be dictated by how the Israel-Hamas conflict plays out and to what extent it is elevated, which at this point is impossible to predict so early on. 

East Asia and Oceania

Sino Talk

Philippines Continues to Relearn Capabilities with SAMASAMA Exercise

The Philippines and the United States recently completed the Samasama naval exercise that took place off the coast of southern Luzon. The exercise was significant for several reasons, with the most important being that the navies of other nations also participated in the exercise.  The Samasama exercise is an example of the Philippine military gaining knowledge and experience to improve its ability to conduct maritime operations against potential adversaries. 

Participating Countries 

Philippine military expanded this year’s exercise to include other countries that share the country’s mindset regarding a rules-based international order. For example, the Philippines invited several countries to the exercise with Australia, Canada, France, Japan, New Zealand, and the U.K. sending personnel and vessels. These countries have a vested interest in assisting the Philippines to develop its maritime capabilities to better defend its territory, especially in the South China Sea (SCS). For example, Australia and Japan expanded their defense relationship with the country since at least late 2022 to increase their presence in the region. Australia also conducted several exercises with the Philippines, including exercises practicing how to retake airfields or islands. Japan also recently expanded its defense relationship with the Philippines since the beginning of 2023 to increase the Philippines’ ability to monitor the territory it claims in the SCS. Both countries understand the need for the Philippines to develop its military capabilities to better defend against Chinese actions in the region. 

Types of Training Exercises 

The various drills that made up the Samasama exercise showed how the Philippines uses these exercises to gain knowledge on how to conduct various operations. The Philippine Navy frigate, the BRP Antonio Luna, and the guided missile destroyer the U.S.S. Dewey conducted an air defense exercise using autocannon weapon stations and .50cal machineguns. Both vessels engaged a towed drone that allowed them to practice communicating and maneuvering into positions that would provide the best firing angles. 

Both vessels also conducted a maritime awareness drill that allowed the Philippine Navy to gain valuable training on how to conduct anti-surface and anti-submarine operations. For example, the Philippine and U.S. ships conducted an anti-submarine drill during the exercise. The exercise involved the use of an expendable undersea drone that mimicked acoustic signatures of submarines that the Antonio Luna and the U.S.S. Dewey searched and tracked it. The Antonio Luna then engaged and destroyed the drone using a K745 Blue Shark light-weight torpedo. The air defense and maritime awareness exercises allow the Philippines to regain valuable knowledge and experience in air defense, anti-surface, anti-submarine warfare domains. 

Conclusion

The Samasama naval exercise shows how the Philippines is actively using bilateral exercises to gain knowledge and experience in various aspects of naval warfare. The Philippine Navy must learn how to conduct these complex types of naval operations because it is transitioning from internal to territorial defense. The lack of institutional knowledge or experience in conducting naval operations against an adversary will be a significant obstacle the Philippine Navy has to overcome. These exercises along with knowledge sharing from other countries allows the Philippines to develop military capabilities to defend against potential adversaries such as China². 

Australia, Japan, and the United States Examine Logistical Strategies to Resupply Dispersed Units

In early October, the Australian government recently gave its permission for the United States Army to preposition equipment in the country. The agreement between the two countries allows the United States to place approximately three companies’ worth of equipment in Australia for when it is needed. The agreement comes one month after Japan and the United States conducted a logistical exercise in the Ryukyu Island Chain and other areas of Japan. The agreements and recent exercise show how Australia, Japan, and the United States are examining logistical strategies to sustain its forces during a potential conflict. 

Prepositioning Agreements

The recent agreement between Australia and the United States is significant because it allows the United States to position supplies and watercraft in countries throughout the region. Both countries are in the process of negotiating for Australia to eventually host rotational visits by U.S. Army watercraft units in the country. The talks with Australia occur after the United States and Japan agreed to station a watercraft unit at Yokohama in January. The prepositioning of watercraft will allow the U.S. Army greater flexibility in deploying them faster than if they were stationed in the United States. Australia recently agreed to allow the U.S. Army to preposition equipment and supplies in the northern part of the country during bilateral talks held in July. Another agreement will also permit the U.S. Army to build an enduring logistics support area in Queensland to permanently station prepositioned equipment. The prepositioned equipment would range from munitions to various armored vehicles that units could use until more permanent logistical lines are established. 

Logistical Resupply Exercise

Japan and the United States conducted a joint logistical exercise as part of the wider Orient Shield military exercise held in September. Several U.S. Army watercraft worked with the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) to load and transport supplies to remote islands throughout the Ryukyu Island Chain during the exercise. The watercraft also trained with the JGSDF in transporting equipment and personnel to other areas of Japan such as southern Hokkaido where the exercise also took place. The training exercise allows the U.S. military and JGSDF to gain knowledge and to practice resupplying units dispersed on small islands throughout the Ryukyus. The reason why the U.S. military and JGSDF developed this strategy of spreading out forces on these small islands is to prevent their destruction by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). An extensive and robust logistical network would be crucial in sustaining these units during any potential conflict. 

Conclusion

The various prepositioning agreements and recent exercise emphasize the importance the countries place on sustaining their forces during a potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. However, the countries will face several obstacles implementing strategies to create and sustain any logistical networks they build. One obstacle is how the prepositioned stocks and watercraft are vulnerable to a preemptive or surprise attack by the PLA. While the watercraft could theoretically be dispersed prior to the start of hostilities; it is likely there would be little time to do so before they are targeted. Another obstacle is the potential for a disparity between logistical capabilities to exist between the three countries. However, the countries would have an increased ability to create robust supply lines to sustain units dispersed across islands in the First Island Chain. 

Looking Forward

The national referendum about building the bridge linking Xiamen and Kinmen Island will likely fail due to the majority of Taiwan not sharing as profound of an economic or familial bond with Xiamen. The poll’s results likely indicate that some of the Taiwanese population would rather see another political party other than the Democratic Progressive Party return to power. However, there are several reasons for this beyond the threat of a potential Chinese invasion such as high rent, low wages, and high crime. While Liu will likely head the Chinese part of the Xiangshan Forum, it does not indicate he will become the new Defense Minister. Japan’s decision to move up the timeline regarding buying Tomahawks is valid because of the increasingly aggressive actions by China, North Korea, and Russia near the country. North Korea likely received some parts and examples of missile systems, aircraft engines, or materials that would enable the country to further develop its own domestically produced systems. 

The Indonesian President’s comments about must be done wisely is due to balancing the need to modernize its military while also not straining the country’s already poor economy. The Thai government’s extension of the security decree is due to concerns that insurgent activity would increase in other border provinces. The Indian military’s warning regarding safeguarding secrets is valid because of the several leaks of military secrets that took place in recent months. However, the warning would do little to prevent leaks from continuing for various reasons, the most important is the role that Indian media plays in leaking secrets.

Central Asia and the Mid East

S2 Forward and Shep

Israeli Tanks at Risk

All eyes have been on Israel and the Gaza strip since the Oct 7^th attack by Hamas that left over a thousand Israeli civilians dead and has upended the status quo in the Middle East. Footage coming out of the region has begun to show IDF preparations for a full-scale conventional ground assault on the Gaza strip, including rows of armored vehicles, and large formations of troops. Among these are the numerous Merkava Mk IV Main Battle Tanks (MBT’s) that make up the primary armored muscle of the Israeli ground forces, the heavy armored force that will most likely spearhead the anticipated Israeli attack. 

A thoroughly modern vehicle of its class, it has been in use with the IDF, in continuously upgraded form, for over 3 decades. All signs point to the men/women manning these vehicles as being the first conventional forces into the fray should/when the Israeli government decide to order its anticipated incursion. However, there is reason to suspect that the overwhelming advantage in safety/firepower possessed by the crewmembers of these vehicles may not be as overwhelming as traditionally thought. 

A notable piece of footage released by Hamas on the day of their attack was the destruction of a Merkava IV by a small UAS asset dropping a PG7-VR tandem-warhead RPG grenade onto its roof. Later footage showed the body of the driver being extracted by militants as its burning hulk was surrounded by dozens of Palestinians celebrating its destruction. This highlights a controversial theme in military discussion circles that has begun to gain traction in the wake of recent conflicts. That the pendulum of advantage regarding tanks and armor has swung thoroughly in the direction of the defender. 

Recent conflicts have highlighted the seeming vulnerability of the MBT on the modern battlefield. Armenian armored formations were wiped out by Azeri drone attacks during the second Nagorno-Karabakh War, and the whole world witnessed the decimation of Russian armored columns by Ukrainian infantry armored with the ubiquitous Javelin and NLAW Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGM’s). The Ukrainians have displayed increasingly unique ways of destroying tanks and armored vehicles that have forced difficult conversations upon military planners. That of whether the MBT can be counted upon to be the anchor of any conventional assault force in the face of expanding vulnerabilities to teams of light infantry armed with cheap shoulder fired rockets/missiles, and small civilian-sourced drones retrofitted with lethal anti-armor munitions. 

The last time the IDF pushed into Gaza in 2014, its tank crews became intimately familiar with the ATGM, as Hamas fighters engaged them in direct fire contests with semi-modern Russian types like the 9M113 Konkurs and 9M133 Kornet (Porter). These weapons managed to inflict casualties and there is no reason to believe that Hamas will not deploy missile teams in a similar fashion now, with both better training and potentially better equipment. The new addition to the battlefield will be the employment of weaponized UAS and their already proven effectiveness against heavy armor in this theatre. The full capabilities of Hamas’ drone teams have not yet been seen but if the first few days of the war are any indication, they have adopted lessons from the previously mentioned conflicts, and could be potentially lethal to Israeli tank crews. 

Hamas’ Plans In Israel and Palestine

Hamas has undoubtedly prepared for the inevitable Israeli retaliation. To what extent their forces are prepared and ready for the likely massive attack is unknown. However, if the IDF commits to a doctrinally conventional assault consisting of preparatory fires followed by tanks with infantry support, it may be in for a bloody and difficult fight. Its tank and APC crews will be the primary targets and, if the controversy-stirring voices in military planning circles are right, could be particularly vulnerable³. 

On October 7th, Hamas conducted an unprecedented attack against Israeli military and service members alike, utilizing paragliders, boats, tunnels, and rocket barrages. These attacks penetrated several kilometers in southern Israel along the border of the Gaza Strip.

The attack occurred during the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War in 1973, where Israel was invaded by surrounding countries and defeated them.

The multi-pronged terrorist attack, named Operation al-Aqsa Flood, resulted in the deaths of hundreds, primarily civilians. The quantity of rockets in the initial barrage numbered in the thousands. Hamas shocked the world by sharing videos and pictures on social media of terrorists indiscriminately attacking kidnapping men, women, the elderly, and children.

On the first day of fighting, the Senior Commander of Hamas Mohammad Zaif released a statement saying, "We announce the beginning of the Al-Aqsa flood operation, and we have targeted enemy positions, airports, and military fortifications with more than 500 missiles. 

Today, the anger of al-Aqsa, the anger of our nation, and our righteous Mujahideen is boiling. Today is your day to let the enemy know that his time is over. As of today, all security arrangements will end. Today, everyone with a gun needs to get out. History opens its brightest and noblest pages. O our brothers in the Is!amic resistance in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, today is the day when the fronts and flags are united."

The Foreign Ministries of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, and Syria have claimed that Israeli is entirely behind the escalation on the Gaza Strip and Southern Israel.

Israel very quickly began pummeling the Gaza Strip with airstrikes while the ground forces moved to secure southern Israel.

The Israeli Army stationed along the border with Lebanon has received an order placing it in a state of maximum combat readiness, preparing for escalation if Hezbollah joins the fighting. Hezbollah informed Egypt that Hezbollah would begin attacking Israel if Israel began a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. Estimates from 2016 puts Hezbollah's arsenal at around 150,000 rockets, which may be used to overwelm Israel's air defences.

It was later reported by Al Arabiya citing Israeli sources that the US gave Israel the green light to confront any threat on any front and in any geography. This is coupled by the unconfirmed reports that Iraqi militias have been moving into Lebanon via Syria to assist Hamas in fighting Israel. Historically, Iranian-backed militias have operated in Syria. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have also threatened the US if they intervene in the Israel-Hamas war. The Houthis in Yemen and the Taliban have both announced their support for Hamas. 

Shortly after the initial attacks from Hamas, Israel's PM Netanyahu announced that:

- the IDF will use all of its might to immediately destroy Hamas and its capabilities. 

 -Anywhere Hamas hides, will turn into ruins.

 - Israel will make sure this doesn't happen again.

 - Calls on Palestinian civilians to immediately leave before the IDF starts turning Hamas locations into rubble.

The US has stated that it would support Israel with supplies and moved a carrier strike group near Lebanon and Israel. President Biden gave a stark warning to any country, obviously aimed at Iran and its allies, from attacking Israel during this time.

The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) has been announced to support the Ford CSG. Also, the Marine Corps’ expeditionary unit capable of special operations has departed early from a scheduled exercise with Kuwait “as a result of a emerging events,” days after war broke out. The below offensive ships comprise the carrier strike group, not including the USS Eisenhower CSW which is currently in transit to the Mediterranean Sea: 

Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruisers:

- USS Normandy (CG-60)

- USS Philippine Sea (CG-58)

Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers:

 - USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116)

 - USS Ramage (DDG-61)

 - USS Carney (DDG-64)

 - USS Roosevelt (DDG-80)

 - USS Gravely (DDG-107)

 - USS Mason (DDG-87)

U.S. aircraft carriers:

- USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78)

Netanyahu also formed a wartime government. Israel has halted the supply of electricity, food, medicine, and water to the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu later said that Israel's security cabinet has approved decisions to destroy the military and governmental capabilities of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

After 48 hours, the IDF quickly mobilized their reservists by around 80,000, bringing the total to over 150,000 reservists. 

Over several days of relentless airstrikes, that have reportedly killed hundreds, Hamas has announced that it will execute a hostage every time Gazan civilians are targeted in their homes "without warning."

The IDF have been conducting leaflet drops and widespread text messages to Gazans informing them on areas to retreat from and routes to take to avoid the fighting.

While the IDF was working on counterattacking, the Al-Qassam Brigades, the militant wing of Hamas, reportedly planned to send additional forces from Gaza into southern Israel to reinforce their control over settlements they captured.

While the more intense fighting was occuring to the south, IDF Northern Command was placed at enhanced readiness and forces stationed in the north are being bolstered. The IDF has been conducting preparations in the event Hezbollah joins the war against Israel. Additionally, during the first 48 hours of fighting, unconfirmed reports stated that the Syrian Arab Army 4th and 7th Division were on heightened alert in the south. 

Over the past several days of fighting, Hezbollah and the IDF have been exchanging attacks at each other along the South Lebanon border - Hezbollah has reported fired multiple anti tank guided missiles near a town and Guard post. During the initial phases of fighting, Hezbollah members attempted to infiltrate the northern border by motorcycles but were repelled, resulting in the deaths of 2 of their members.

A U.S. official told AFP that it's too early to tell whether Iran was "directly involved" while a Hamas spokesman told BBC that it had backing for this attack from Tehran. The WSJ later reported that Iran helped plan Hamas’s attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting last Monday.

"Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah. Officers of Iran’s IRGC had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions.

Details of the operation were refined during several meetings in Beirut attended by IRGC officers and representatives of four Iran-backed militant groups, including Hamas, which holds power in Gaza, and Hezbollah, they said."

Additionally, PIJ stated that Iranian President Raisi assured the PIJ Secretary General of Al-Nakhalah of his support for the Palestinian people, and their resistance, and he will be permanently standing for their rights.

There are unconfirmed reports that the IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani is in South Lebanon to coordinate Hezbollah forces in the event of a war against Israel.

On October 13th Israel gave citizens of Gaza City 24 hours to evacuate, which has a population of 1.1 million. This is indicative of a likely impending ground offensive.

After 4 days of intense fighting, the IDF spokesperson said Israel amassed 100,000 troops in southern Israel with the stated goal of taking away all military capabilities from Hamas, and once the IDF is done Hamas will no longer be governing the Gaza Strip. The IDF spokesperson also said that fighting with Palestinian militants is still ongoing in southern Israel.

"We assess that there were approximately a thousand terrorists who participated in yesterday's invasion of Israel. About a thousand of bloodthirsty Palestinians who went house to house, building to building, in search for Israeli civilians."

Overall, as of 3 days ago, 360,000 reservists have been summoned.

There have been numerous reports claiming that Israel was preparing to conduct a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip; however, as of October 14th, the New York Times reported that the invasion of Gaza was initially planned for this weekend, but was delayed in part due to inclement weather. Poor weather conditions, including cloudiness, would make it more difficult to conduct effective airstrikes.

Hamas’ initial attack against Israel and ongoing fighting since have killed more than 1,300 people in Israel, including 247 soldiers and the retaliatory strikes from Israel has killed more than 1,530 people in Gaza. Israel says roughly 1,500 Hamas members were killed inside Israel, with hundreds more killed inside of Gaza. Thousands have been wounded on both sides.

What does all of this mean: 

The US may very rapidly find itself in another conflict. Israel appears to be headstrong in their ground offensive in Gaza. Hezbollah claims they will attack Israel if the ground invasion occurs. The US, who just parked a CSG on Lebanon's doorstep, threatened anyone from outside interference. Iranian-backed militias across the Middle East threatened to attack US bases if the US follows through on its statement.

All of this depends on in/when Israel conducts a ground attack into Gaza.

France Signals Support for Israel 

President of France Emmanuel Macron has reportedly issued a warning to Iran and Hezbollah against getting involved in the worsening conflict in the Middle East (OSINTDef). This comes after the French government banned pro-Palestinian protests and vowed to protect Jews from resurgent antisemitism (AP). With similar international warnings being given by President Biden, and the shifting of American Naval assets in the Mediterranean, this could signal the beginnings of an international coalition being built in support of Israeli actions in the region. 

The attacks on Oct 7^th, in addition to being a shock to the international community, have had wide-ranging implications for the region and could potentially affect the global security order if large-scale war breaks out. Far from what had become the occasional, and almost expected flareup between the Israeli Defense Forces and their Palestinian militant opponents, the recent actions are being called the worst anti-Jewish pogrom since the Holocaust, and the anticipated Israeli retaliation is expected to be paradigm-shifting in its scale and ferocity.

The possible domino effect of such a conflict is not difficult to visualize. Hezbollah intervention means Israel will be fighting a two-front war and, even with an overwhelming advantage in military capability, this is not something the Israelis would ideally want. Hezbollah intervention also means the de facto involvement of Iran as the state has been Hezbollah’s primary benefactor since its inception in 1985. A state-to-state conflict with Iran, while likely “winnable” from the Israeli perspective, would be extremely costly for both countries and could possibly drag in other Middle Eastern countries as well as the United Statas or some form of Western coalition. 

Currently, threats and posturing are all that is taking place. Hezbollah and the Iranian leadership have both stated publicly that if Israel’s retaliatory actions in Gaza continue, IE if the ground invasion commences, then they’ll be forced to intervene. What exactly this “intervention” constitutes is left obscure. With President Biden’s commitment to support the Israeli actions, the movement of two full carrier groups into the region serves as a significant deterrent force. France has its own force-projection capabilities and may seek to move its naval aviation assets close to the theatre of operations in the wake of President Macrons statement. 

If other European and Western leaders make similar statements of warning, it could serve as an effective deterrent to Hamas-supporting entities from becoming involved in the worsening crisis. However, if past Arab solidarity with the Palestinian cause is any indication of actions going forward, both state and non-state actors are unlikely to remain silent in the face of overwhelming Israeli retaliation in the Gaza strip⁴.