Bulletin From The Borderlands

15 February 2023

Feb 15, 2023

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Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

Contributiors In This Issue:

Croatoan Report : A retired Marine Intelligence analyst and founder of the Croatoan Report, a foreign policy and security affairs podcast. The Team Leader for Bulletin From The Borderlands

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He attends San Jose State University and is pursuing a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the assistant lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

Sino Talk : Sino Talk is China watcher with extensive experience living and studying in China. In another life, he was a Marine intelligence analyst.

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting. The group is a collective of analysts that have spent considerable time in private intelligence that saw a need to change the way people consume global news. The group delivers insights on all sorts of topics ranging from geopolitics, terrorism, and economics to conflict, crisis, and more.

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In This Issue:

The Americas :

Little change on the political level has been observed for Peru. The executive and the legislature still disagree on how to tackle a major demand of the pro-Castillo protest movement. However, the increasingly precarious situation has led to economic effects that are starting to hit everyday Peruvians; especially those that rely on the country’s cherished tourism industry. The situation may also soon affect the global supply chain as Peru is very rich in precious metals. At the other end of the hemisphere, foreign spy balloons and unidentified flying objects have warranted the highest concentration of air defense missions since the aftermath of the September 11th attacks. The people of the United States and Canada are still left with many questions as defense officials continue recovery effects in order to capture and analyze key components of the downed aerial objects.

Both China and the United States are increasing their presence and influence in the Oceania region, with China signing agreements with Vanuatu and the Solomons, and the US reopening its embassy in the Solomons and renegotiating agreements with other countries. The region's strategic importance is a driving factor for both countries, with China looking to gain naval or military bases on islands and the US seeking to counter China's influence. Australia, New Zealand, and the US recognize the strategic importance of the region due to their historical battles fought there.

Countries in the Asia-Pacific region have been active in creating or enhancing alliances. The US has renegotiated agreements with Pacific islands, and Australia is seeking closer ties with France and the UK. The Philippine president supports a potential VFA with Japan. Separatists in Papua New Guinea kidnapped a New Zealand pilot. China's economy recorded negative corporate investment flows, while North Korea unveiled a new ICBM during a parade. The KMT's deputy chairman visited China to meet with CCP officials.

Europe :

During a speech on Monday, Moldovan President Maia Sandu publicly accused Russia of conspiring to use foreign saboteurs to destroy Moldova’s leadership and keep it from joining the European Union. The accusation was spurred after Moldova’s largely pro-western Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita resigned last week following 18 months in power, and an announcement from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Ukraine discovered Russian intelligence “for the destruction of Moldova”. It isn’t confirmed the resignation is connected to the announcement, though the timing is suspect. Russian forces have resumed their attempted offensives across eastern Ukraine, particularly around Bakhmut and Vulhedar, without success. Be advised that Russia’s mobilized troops are being moved forward to support a major offensive in the coming days.

East Asia and Oceania:

In recent weeks, there have been a flurry of activity across the Asia-Pacific region as various countries sought to create or enhance alliances or friendships. In Oceania, the United States recently concluded renegotiating long-standing agreements with the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palau to use their islands for defense purposes in return for economic assistance. Australian defense and foreign ministers visited France and the U.K. to increase defense and diplomatic ties with both countries.

In Southeast Asia, Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos Jr. voiced his approval of a potential Visting Forces Agreement (VFA) with Japan to increase its maritime capabilities and to offer greater protection to its fishermen in the South China Sea. Separatists in Papua New Guinea released a statement saying the New Zealand pilot they kidnapped last week. Local authorities are working with tribal elders and church officials to secure his release.

In Northeast Asia, the Chinese economy recorded its first negative net corporate investment flows – a first since 2016. China is also dealing with the continued fallout over the ‘weather’ balloon the U.S. military shot down off the coast of eastern United States on February 4^th. North Korea unveiled a new sold-fuel state ICBM during a nighttime parade on February 9^th. Kim Jong Un’s daughter featured heavily in the parade, leading some to speculate she is being groomed as a successor or a high-level role. The Kuomintang’s (KMT) deputy chairman recently concluded his trip to China to visit with senior Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials.

Central Asia and the Mid East:

A major earthquake has rocked southern Turkey, destroying several large urban centers, and killing thousands. The quakes have hit areas where many refugees from the Syrian civil war have fled, destroying refugee camps and wreaking havoc on any support structures in place.

Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey, who has championed rapid and deregulated building projects across Turkey, is being directly blamed for the mass collapse of buildings during the quake, because of the failure of those buildings to survive the quakes.

Africa :

Throughout the end of January and into February conflict within East Africa has continued with the bloody tug-of-war in Somalia between national forces and Al-Shabaab. Additionally, despite peace being achieved in Tigray, Ethiopia is beginning to suffer the repercussions of the conflict with the Oromo Liberation Front that has been growing in the background of the nation’s civil war. In west Africa, political violence continues in Nigeria as the national primaries approach. Furthermore, conflict within Burkina Faso stemming from Islamic extremism has further deteriorated humanitarian access to the point of Medecins Sans Frontieres suspending their critical medical support following the assassination of two of its employees that were in transit between regions in a clearly marked humanitarian van. Previously LMJ had talked about how peace across Africa would be short-lived which has been proven in just a few weeks. Without support from the international community, these conflicts will only worsen making a larger problem globally as most of the world has interests in the continent.

The Big Points:

The Highlight: Incoming

Russia’s most recent mobilization has ended with 200,000 troops being sent forwards toward the Ukrainian border. Massive artillery and air bombing campaigns have been hammering Ukrainian positions all along the front in Eastern Ukraine, determined to be preparatory fires for Russian forces. Multiple ground sources in Ukraine have determined that Russian forces will commit their mobilized forces against Ukraine by the end of February at the earliest, with the intent of retaking much of the lost territory in Southern Ukraine, breaking open Bakhmut, and resuming an assault on Kyiv.

The Long Term Concern: Setting Up The Game In Asia

The CCP has ordered the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. The U.S. has finalized a treaty to found forward military bases on the Philippine Islands. In New Zealand, moderate and anti war Prime Minister Jacinda Adern has resigned. Japan and Korea have both invested further government funds into preparing for a war with China. As Russia’s battlefield woes get worse, and the attention of China’s opponents continues to laser in on the CCP, expect an attack on Taiwan in the near future. Our recommendation would be to take the CCP’s 2027 ready date, as a likely attack date.

It is our estimate that China will invade Taiwan before Russian forces have to withdraw from Ukraine (or secure victory).

The Americas

Months of Uncertainty in Peru

Demonstrations in support of former president Pedro Castillo have entered their third month. Elected officials are trying to negotiate a deal that would see elections advanced to some point in 2023. However, it seems like Congress does not want to give in to the wishes of President Dina Boluarte or pro-Castillo protesters. Additionally, the economic effects of the protest movement are continuing to be felt by everyday Peruvians and could be felt by the rest of the world eventually. New readers seeking to understand the context in which the current events have unfolded should read previous bulletins for a detailed overview.

The Next Elections

The resignation of President Boluarte and the holding of early elections are the two priority demands of protesters. Congress has already signaled that it would endorse a plan to move elections to April 2024, instead of 2026 as mandated by the constitution. By endorsing this, representatives would undercut their own power by shortening their tenure in office. The plan, however, still has yet to be passed. The main condition that must be met before ratifying the constitution is the quelling of civil unrest. So far, Boluarte, who negotiated this deal with Congress, has yet to meet that condition.

It should also be noted that moving up elections by two years is not enough to please demonstrators. They want elections this year and they also want Boluarte gone, a demand that should not be ignored. It seems that Congress is very unlikely to pass a plan that would move elections to this year. They have already tentatively agreed to cut their tenures by two years. Any more concessions from the body would come as a surprise, especially considering the tense relationship between Boluarte and the right-wing led legislature.

Economic Effects

New information from the country’s Central Reserve Bank shows that demonstrations are starting to have a larger negative effect on the economy. This month, the International Monetary Fund called inflation the “most immediate policy challenge” for Peru. Inflation numbers in January reached 8.66%, well above the bank’s target rate of 2.75%. The central bank now forecasts that inflation in early next year could hit 4.62%..

Another area where the economic impact is clear is in the tourism industry, which is big in the country that was the seat of the Pre-Columbian Incan Empire. The Incan capital, Cusco, is today a tourist hub that facilitates foreigners traveling to see the ancient ruins at Machu Picchu. Many of the city’s residents rely on the tourism industry to earn a living; but now, the city of 450,000 is mostly quiet. The only exceptions are typically clashes between security forces and demonstrators. Machu Picchu has been closed indefinitely due to the situation and the livelihood of thousands of Peruvian families lie in the balance.

Peru’s mining sector has taken a hit as well. The country is within the top three in the world for producing silver and copper. Last week, the Buenaventura silver mine was forced to suspend operations after demonstrators stormed the site. Protesters accuse the mining industry of taking away wealth from local residents. Some copper mines are likewise being forced to suspend or reduce operations, many of which are owned by foreign companies from places like China and Switzerland. Generally speaking, production of copper has remained at relatively normal levels. However, analysts say that metal production could be put at greater risk as unrest continues. An assessment from the wealth management company Jeffries said that as much as 30% of Peru’s copper supply could be at risk1.

From China With Love

A balloon flying over North American airspace led to controversy, debate, and rare actions by the United States Air Force. The Chinese surveillance balloon was revealed to be a part of a long standing military program that spans the globe, but did not make headlines until early February.

Timeline of Events

01/28: The balloon entered Alaskan airspace over the Aleutian Islands and continued on a path towards the Alaskan mainland
01/30: The balloon enters Canadian airspace and flies southeast towards the United States
01/31: The balloon re-enters United States airspace over Idaho
02/01: The balloon is spotted over Billings, Montana after airspace in the area was closed. The Billings Gazette published a story and photos regarding the balloon, leading the public to become aware of its presence. At this point, it was flying at roughly 60,000 feet, higher than civilian air traffic. The US Department of Defense and Canadian Department of National Defense both acknowledged the contents of the story
02/02-04: The balloon continues to make its way across the United States until it reaches the East Coast.
02/04: USAF F-22 Raptors are scrambled and shot down the balloon over US territorial waters near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

Characteristics of the Balloon

The balloon was roughly 200 feet tall and weighed more than 2,000 pounds. It was also carrying a surveillance payload that was anywhere from two to three buses in length. Defense officials confirm that it was maneuverable and was likely controlled by an operator in China. Due to it flying at such a high altitude, it did not pose a risk to air traffic.

Other Instances

We now know that this balloon was part of an expansive surveillance program run by the Chinese military that has operated over at least 40 different countries. While this balloon was traversing the United States and Canada, there was also a balloon flying over Latin America. That balloon has been spotted over Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Colombia, and Venezuela at the very least. There is still much we don’t know about that particular balloon, including whether or not it ever left the region.

The Chinese government acknowledged that this balloon was theirs, saying that it was a civilian object that had seriously deviated from its intended course. This mirrors the statement made about the balloon over the United States. The Costa Rican government launched a formal complaint to China2.

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