Bulletin From The Borderlands

15 July 2023

Note from Lethal Minds:

Bulletin From The Borderlands is a joint project between Lethal Minds and some of the most talented OSINT analysts and independent journalists working today. Our goal is to provide you with a clear, accurate, and informative view of the world, free from censorship or bias. The Bulletin will bring you the facts, our analysis, and our evidence. We hope you find our work helps you better understand the complicated and increasingly volatile world in which we live.

Be informed, be prepared, be lethal.

The Bulletin Team:

Kitbag Conversations : A team of retired Marine and Army Intelligence analysts and the founders of the Croatoan Report and Kitbag Conversations, foreign policy and security affairs podcasts. The Team Leader for Bulletin From The Borderlands.

Analyze Educate : Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate) is a Marine Corps infantry veteran. He attends San Jose State University and is pursuing a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. He runs Analyze & Educate, a podcast and associated social media pages discussing geopolitics, armed conflicts, news, and history. In his capacity with Lethal Minds he is the assistant lead for the Bulletin From the Borderlands, Americas Desk chief, and an editor.

Meridian News : Meridian News is a project dedicated to sharing and aggregating open source intelligence, stories from individuals experiencing history, and amplifying underreported global news.

Sino Talk : Sino Talk is China watcher with extensive experience living and studying in China. In another life, he was a Marine intelligence analyst. 

The Expeditionary Intelligence Group : The Expeditionary Intelligence Group Instagram page is a project delivering flash news utilizing open-source intelligence combined with human asset contributions and geographic intelligence to provide the general public with objective bias-free global news that tells the whole story based on the facts and on-the-ground insights they feel are missing from a lot of mainstream news reporting.

S2 Forward : A serving US Marine and Intelligence analyst, S2 Forward is focused primarily on the Mid East and Central Asia.

Callisto Report: The Callisto Report is an OSINT project dedicated to delivering timely open source analysis and conflict reporting, and chronicling global events

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Sponsors

The Bulletin is brought you to by PB Abbate, Fieldseats.com, and JFT Defense Solutions.

As you likely know, Lethal Minds Journal shares common ancestry with Patrol Base Abbate, one of the most impactful veteran’s outreach organizations in America. One of the ways in which we connect is through a love of the written word, a belief in the power of good writing to help give a voice to people who need to be heard, and a desire to help service members and vets connect through self-expression. This summer, Sebastian Junger, award winning writer of War, Tribe, and Freedom (amongst others), will join the Patrol Base Abbate Book Club in Montana for their annual Return to Base Program. From June 22nd-26th, members of the Book Club will spend a few days discussing literature while they reconnect with nature and other veterans at Patrol Base Abbate’s PB in Thompson Falls, Montana. Details about eligibility are at https://www.pbabbate.org/rtb-application-0-0.

Fieldseats.com is an e-commerce, federally licensed firearms dealer that provides virtual reviews on brand new firearms. At the end of the review they give away the firearm being reviewed to an attendee!

Each item reviewed is given away for free as a part of their promotion for purchasing what they call a “Field Review.” Currently, they’ve got Field Reviews up ranging from $20 for a brand new Smith & Wesson M&P Shield 2.0 to $65 for a new IWI Galil ACE GEN II. Each review is limited to around 38 people, so your chances of winning the giveaway is that much higher!

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JFT Defense Solutions

At JFT Defense Solutions, our mission is to provide unparalleled protective and intelligence services to our clients, ensuring their safety and security in an ever-changing world. We strive to deliver customized, confidential solutions that exceed expectations, utilizing our expertise in risk assessment, threat analysis, and intelligence gathering to mitigate potential risks and provide proactive solutions. Our commitment to excellence, professionalism, and integrity is paramount in all our operations, and we continuously strive to stay ahead of emerging threats to provide the highest level of service to our clients. Our goal is to provide peace of mind, allowing our clients to focus on their business and personal pursuits with the knowledge that their safety and security are in the most capable hands.

JFT Defense Solutions aims to be the new benchmark for private security and intelligence firms. We achieve this by working collaboratively and effectively as a team to provide the highest duty of care to our clients, by being adaptable to changing circumstances enabling us to provide tailored solutions to our diverse client industries, and by staying at the forefront of the industry by utilizing innovative technologies and techniques. Currently, JFT Defense Solutions offers turnkey security services including executive protection, site security, risk mitigation services, threat intelligence, ad-hoc intelligence reporting, and much more. Additionally, JFT Defense Solutions is the sole distributor for Trigger’s Reports risk and asset management monitoring software for the western hemisphere allowing them to bring cutting-edge data-driven risk analytics and monitoring to markets that need it most.  

In This Issue:

The Americas : Covered in this issue by Brodie Kirkpatrick (Analyze & Educate). 

Drama surrounding presidential elections is a big theme in Latin America at the moment. In Brazil, former President Bolsonaro has been banned from holding public office until the end of the decade. Additionally, he faces many other investigations that could lengthen that ban and even send him to prison if convicted. In Guatemala, an anti-establishment candidate surprised many by coming in second place, despite only polling at 3% before the vote was held. However, a court threatened to put an end to his campaign before the run-off could be held.

Europe : Covered in this issue by Callisto Report

Tensions in between Serbia and Kosovo continue to be a trend in the region. While full scale armed conflict is unlikely, destabilization of the Balkans is a risk. The situation also has implications for the relationship between Russia and the West; and also complicates Serbia’s goal of joining the European Union. 

East Asia and Oceania: Covered in this issue by Sino Talk

The Taiwanese government announced the expansion of the annual Wan An No. 46 air defense exercise –to be held on July 24^th to 26^th – to include administrative centers (city, district, or township) in all 22 cities and counties. The Japanese and South Korean foreign ministers said both countries will increase cooperation after North Korea launched a Hwasong-18 International Ballistic Missile. China deployed its largest coast guard vessel to join the fleet of maritime militia ships near Mischief Reef and Second Thomas Shoal, which lays in the Philippines Economic Exclusive Zone.

China and Thailand began the latest iteration of the Falcon Strike 2023 joint air exercise as China is actively increasing its defense ties with Southeast Asia countries. The U.S. Army recently completed training members of the Philippines’ Army Artillery Regiment on the HIMARs as the country plans to buy the system. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China agreed to complete guidelines to a code of conduct for interactions in the South China Sea (SCS) within the next three years. 

The Indian Army announced they forced Chinese troops to remove four tents of a People's Liberation Army unit built inside the Line of Actual Control’s buffer zone in Eastern Ladakh. Sri Lanka and India plan to discuss electrical grid, energy, and port projects when the Sri Lankan president visits the country next week. The Solomon Islands and China signed an agreement to significantly boost policing ties that includes the deployment of PLA police to the country for training purposes. 

Central Asia and the Mid East: Covered in this issue by S2 Fwd

Tensions are increasing across the Strait of Hormuz as the UAE revamps claims on islands that Iran maintains as their own, all the while Kuwait and Saudi Arabia assert their claims over gas fields that Iran states as their own – a gas field where a total proven gas reserves are estimated to be up to 20 trillion cubic feet. 

Africa: Covered in this issue by the Expeditionary Intelligence Group

In the last two weeks in Africa, there is a lot to keep an eye on as well as keeping up with the changes happening with the stories, we published for the July 1 Bulletin. For West Africa, the big point is the new military counteroffensive against non-state actors in Nigeria. In South Africa, the military has been deployed to investigate a mysterious chain of fires that destroyed over 21 different cargo trucks carrying transporting goods all over the nation. In East Africa, Iranian President Raisi arrived in Kenya to begin his three-day diplomatic tour of Africa. Other things to keep an eye on this month is the continuation of conflict in Sudan as the conflict enters its fourth month. The conflict there has not slowed down causing humanitarian crises to deepen and prompted Saudi Arabia to step in and attempt to mediate for the sake of regional security. 

The Big Points:

The Highlight: The Powder Keg in the East  

Defense actions in Asia highlight tensions between China and its neighbors + the United States. Whether it be in the Himalayas, Southeast Asia, or the Taiwan Strait, nations are actively focused on countering the People’s Liberation Army. At the same time, China is focused on building defense relationships where it can in the region as worries over a large scale armed conflict remain the talk of the East.   

See Also:

• The NATO summit was held in Vilnius, Lithuania this week, with some added drama between Ukraine and its Western backers.

• The IDF carried out its largest ground operation in the West Bank since the early 2000s.

• US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited Beijing. The way Yellen was treated by Chinese officials was noticeably better than Blinken during his visit. Long story short: foreign investment is China’s goal.

The Americas

Brodie Kirkpatrick

Bolsonaro In the Crosshairs

Brodie Kirkpatrick

Recently, Brazil’s electoral court voted to ban former President Jair Bolsonaro from office until 2030. The decision stemmed from an investigation into Bolsonaro’s conduct during last year’s presidential election cycle. This comes as the former president is facing multiple investigations by federal authorities. It also comes at a time when the viability of free elections in Latin America is in question. 

Electoral Court Decision

Brazil’s Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE) voted 5-2 on June 30th to convict Bolsonaro on the charge of abuse of power. According to the TSE, Bolsonaro abused his power as president by publicly casting doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system prior to the election in October 2022. This prevents him from holding office for the next seven years; meaning that he will not be able to compete in the 2026 presidential election. 

On July 18th, 2022, during a meeting with foreign ambassadors, Bolsonaro told them that the country’s electronic voting system was prone to fraud. That meeting was also broadcasted on government television and social media channels. The alleged evidence that he provided in this meeting was a police investigation regarding an incident in 2018, when a hacker broke into the internal system of Brazil’s electoral authority. However, the authority says that the hacker never accessed any voting machines nor their source code. The lead justice in the TSE case, Benedito Goncalves, said that Bolsonaro “used the meeting with ambassadors to spread doubts and incite conspiracy theories”. Three months after the meeting, Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist, would go on to lose the election to left-wing populist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. 

Lula’s cabinet was pleased with the court decision. In a tweet, Justice Minister Flavio Dino said, “some important messages come from the TSE trial: lying is not a legitimate tool for exercising a public function and politics is not governed by the law of the jungle”. 

Other Investigations

Bolsonaro currently faces a plethora of other investigations and cases, both civil and criminal. In the TSE, he is involved in another 15 court cases. Additionally, he has to deal with several criminal cases as well. Convictions in any of those cases could lengthen his ban on holding public office and some of them can result in him being behind bars.

The most notable investigation right now revolves around the events of January 8th, when thousands of Bolsonaro supporters stormed and plundered the presidential workspace, Supreme Court, and Congress in Brasilia. Those involved were motivated by the belief that Lula had won the October election unfairly. Over 1,000 people were arrested in connection with that attack and over $3 million USD worth of damage was done to the area. While Bolsonaro was in an Orlando, Florida suburb at the time, he has been blamed by the Lula government and its supporters for inciting the riot. You can read more about that incident in the January 15th Bulletin. 

Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has been called one of the most powerful men in Brazil, granted a request from Attorney General Jorge Messias to include Bolsonaro in the investigation into January 8th. Messias cited a video that was posted by the former president on January 10th that claims Lula was chosen to become president by the Supreme Court and electoral authority. Even though the video was posted after the riot, Messias claimed that it justified investigations into Bolsonaro prior conduct in regards to the election. 

The former president is also under investigation by the Federal Police over the alleged falsification of COVID-19 vaccine cards that were used to subvert requirements to enter the United States. Police have been looking at Bolsonaro, his family members, and some of his advisors in the investigation. In early May, the Federal Police raided his home in connection with the allegations and seized his cell phone¹. 

Who Will Be Guatemala’s Next President?

Brodie Kirkpatrick  

Guatemala held the first round of its presidential election on June 25th. After no candidate received at least 50% of the vote it was determined that there would be a second round. However, after a recent court ruling there is uncertainty as to where the situation lies. 

First Election Round

Over 5.5 million votes were cast in the first round, with only 4.2 million being considered valid. 960,000 votes were thrown out as “invalid” and another 388,000 were left blank. Twenty-two candidates were on the presidential ballot, many of them from new parties. Party structures in Latin America are generally weak, meaning that it is common for new political parties to be formed and disbanded between election cycles. 

Incumbent President Alejandro Giammattei is prohibited by the constitution from running for reelection. His Vamos party, which is right-wing, ran Congressman Manuel Conde as its candidate to replace Giammattei. However, Conde received only 10.4% of the vote and did not qualify for the run-off as he placed third. 

One front runner is Sanda Torres of the UNE. Torres, 67, was the First Lady of Guatemala from 2008-2011. Her National Unity of Hope (UNE) party is described as populist and center to center-left. Interestingly enough, Torres’ daughter, Nadia de Leon Torres, leads Nosotros, a right wing populist party that also ran in the presidential election. The younger Torres secured a seat in Congress during the recent election. The elder Torres has made multiple attempts to become Guatemala’s president. She tried to run in 2011 to replace her then-ex husband, but was blocked by a law that prohibits family members of the president and vice president from being political candidates. She also ran in 2015 and 2019. After the latter election, she was arrested for alleged violations of campaign finance laws, but the case was dismissed in 2022. In June’s election, Torres placed first with 21% of the vote. 

The other front runner is Bernardo Arévalo of the Semilla party. He has served as a Congressmen since 2020 and also served as the Ambassador to Spain and the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs in the 1990s. The son of former President Juan José Arévalo Bermejo, he was born in Uruguay while his father was in exile in 1958. His party, Semilla, is a left-wing progressive, socially liberal party. Arévalo has been referred to as the “anti-establishment” candidate. Just prior to the election, it seemed very unlikely that he would be a front runner. Polls showed his support to be anywhere from 0.7% to 2.9% of respondents. However, Arévalo actually placed second with 15.5% of the vote. This was seen as a major surprise and victory for Semilla, which also came in third for the legislative elections.

Legal Turbulence 

On July 12th, a lower court announced that Arévalo’s results in the first round were being suspended in response to a request from the office of Attorney General Maria Consuelo Porras, who has previously been sanctioned by the United States. The court alleged that Semilla falsified signatures needed to legally establish itself as a party and get itself on the ballot. This is an apparent violation of the Electoral and Party Politics Law, which states that a party may not be suspended after an election has already been held. The move was widely condemned in Guatemala and internationally as an attempt to subvert the will of the voters. It even led Torres to suspend her campaign in solidarity with those that voted for Semilla.

This election cycle has seen multiple hopeful candidates banned from running. This includes Roberto Arzu, a conservative who was prevented from competing after he started his campaign “too early”. He denounced the July 12th decision as “a corrupt system’s coup”. Other barred candidates include Thelma Cabrera and Carlos Pineda. 

On the next day, Guatemala’s Constitutional Court overruled the Attorney General. This allows Semilla to again participate in the presidential election, the second round of which is expected to take place on August 20th².

Looking Forward

Brodie Kirkpatrick

Jair Bolsonaro has said that he plans to appeal his recent conviction to the Supreme Court. Although, it isn’t likely that the court would side with him. They have ruled against him  multiple times in the recent past. Additionally, some of the judges on the TSE are also on the Supreme Court, like Justices Moraes and Carmen Lucia. Moraes in particular put much effort into curtailing Bolsonaro’s administration. At this time, there is debate as to who leads the Brazilian right. Some argue that Bolsonaro has been losing influence ever since he left for Florida after his tenure was over. In Guatemala, Arévalo may actually stand a chance at winning the presidency assuming that the run-off is allowed to be held as planned. As the anti-establishment candidate, his victory could bring actual change for the country.