Bulletin From The Borderlands Flash Report

Philippine Convoy To Enter Contested Islands

Lethal Minds Journal

Sino Talk

, and

ALCON Intelligence

Dec 03, 2023

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On November 27^th, the Philippine Government gave permission to the Atin Ito! (Tagalog for Its Ours!) coalition to conduct a ‘Christmas convoy’ to Philippine-occupied features in the South China Sea (SCS) on December 10^th. The Atin Ito! coalition comprises various youth, agricultural, rural advocacy, and fisherfolk groups that advocate for the Philippines’ rights to its claims in the SCS. The government gave the group the option for the 40-vessel convoy to visit eight Philippine-occupied features to drop off presents and supplies to military/coast guard personnel and fisherfolk.

The eight Philippine-occupied SCS features are (Philippine names in parentheses):

Nanshan (Lawak Island)

Loaita (Kota Island)

West York (Likas Island)

Northeast Cay (Parola Island)

Lankiam Cay (Panata Island)

Flat (Patag) Island

Commodore (Rizal) Reef

However, both sides agreed that the convoy will not visit the BRP Sierra Madre grounded at the Second Thomas Shoal (STS) due to the convoy’s safety. Instead, the convoy will only pass near the STS on its way to visit Thitu (Pag-asa) Island and other features that have Philippine personnel stationed on them. Atin Ito! began its campaign in October with a monthslong donations drive, a concert in addition to the planned SCS convoy. The Philippine Coast Guard will escort the convoy during its trip in the SCS.

Analysis: The agreement came one week after the Philippine Government denied the group’s first request due to unspecified ‘contentious issues.’ The main issue was the coalition planned visit to the STS on December 5^th that would also occur as the biweekly resupply mission. The visit by the convoy would be viewed by China as an escalation since it would occur after the resupply mission by the Philippine Navy. Furthermore, China would also view it as an escalation since the convoy is made up of civilians wanting to cement the Philippines’ claim to the shoal. The escalation would occur even though the convoy plans to drop off food, water, medical supplies, presents, and other necessities for the personnel stationed on the features to use. The convoy would likely still run into issues even if it would only pass by the STS on its way to other features. China will harass the convoy to prevent it from continuing its planned route or as a measure to prevent it from going near the shoal. China will increase the number of vessels near the features to intimidate or prevent the coalition from visiting the features. The increased number of Chinese vessels raises the likelihood of an incident that could result in the injury or death of Philippine civilians1.

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