Bulletin From The Borderlands Special Report
Bulletin From The Borderlands Special Report
What The Hell Is Going On In North Korea?
What’s Going on With North Korea?
North Korea has once again found its way into the geopolitical spotlight. The country has been firing dozens of ballistic missiles near or over South Korea and Japan in recent days. These launches are being seen as a response to large scale military exercises being held in South Korea and comes amid warnings from intelligence agencies that the country could soon conduct another nuclear weapons test. According to the United States, North Korea is also supplying Russia with ammunition to use in its war with Ukraine. In the backdrop of all of this are the two issues North Korea has faced for decades: the country is incredibly poor and millions of its citizens face starvation.
1Weapons Test
At the direction of Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un, North Korea conducted at least 26 missile tests this week. Some of those missiles landed into the Sea of Japan and others crossed into South Korea’s territorial waters. This caused air raid sirens and even evacuations in Japan and South Korea. The launches come in response to joint US-South Korea military drills called Vigilant Storm, which includes hundreds of aircraft and thousands of servicemen from the two countries, plus a small contingent from Australia. Military exercises usually draw heavy condemnation and sometimes weapons tests from the North, but this recent round of missile launches caused Vigilant Storm to be extended indefinitely.
There are warnings from both South Korean and United States intelligence agencies, as well as the United Nations, that North Korea could soon conduct a seventh nuclear weapons test, the first since 2017. All of these provocations by North Korea could be seen as testing the resolve of both the United States and South Korea’s new president Yoon Suk-yeol. The United States, despite its declared “pivot to the Indo-Pacific”, is seen by some as being distracted in Europe; putting too much focus on the Russo-Ukrainian War and failing to allocate enough attention and resources towards Asia. In South Korea, President Yoon is a conservative hardliner against the North, but he has only been in office since May and has no diplomatic or military experience. This will be his first major test against his country’s bitter rival.
Ammunition to Russia
This week, the United States is saying that North Korea is providing Russia with artillery ammunition for its invasion of Ukraine. The ongoing invasion is the largest war Russia has been involved in since World War II. The country has expended much of its artillery ammunition and Ukrainian rocket artillery has hit dozens of supply depots inside occupied territories. The expenditure of its ammunition stockpiles caused Russia to seek international suppliers, according to US intelligence. It is believed that shipments are being handled in the Middle East and Africa in order to avoid unwanted attention.
The Stimson Center’s 38 North analysis publication, which watches North Korea, has observed rail traffic along the Russia-North Korea railway link. This railway crosses the 800-meter Tumangang Friendship Bridge, the only land link between the two countries. The bridge was closed by North Korea in February 2020 due to COVID-19 and there was no traffic until yesterday afternoon. According to 38 North, the train was three cars in length and was seen crossing the bridge by satellite imagery. The transfer of cargo could not be observed so there is much we don’t know about the nature of the train. However, it is suspected that the cargo may have been horses. Kim Jong-un is an avid horseman and data from Russian customs shows that 30 thoroughbred Orlov Trotters were transferred to North Korea. The horses are valued for racing and were coveted by the Russian elite prior to the 1917 Russian Revolution. The belief is that Russia is paying for North Korean shells with these horses.
Food and the Economy
To say North Korea is impoverished is an understatement. According to the World Bank, the country’s 2019 GDP was $18 billion USD. For comparison, the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara metro area in California had a 2019 GDP of $327.93 billion USD. The nation’s command economy, mixed with juche (self-reliance) philosophy, has been catastrophic for the economy. This was exacerbated by the fall of the Soviet Union, which supplied the North with aid.
Additionally, the country has historically faced famine. Food shortages, mixed with an economic crisis, led to a mass famine in the 1990s that killed millions of North Koreans. The problems of food shortages and starvation have persisted since then. Many have accused the Kim Dynasty of allowing millions of North Koreans to starve to death, so long as the starvations don’t pose a threat to their position of power. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization says that this year, North Korea has again failed to yield a harvest large enough to feed its population. This will require the country to accept external food assistance if it wishes to feed everyone.
Future Behavior
The next steps North Korea takes will depend on how long the Vigilant Storm exercises last. Each day the drills continue, the more displeased Kim Jon-un becomes. The country responded to the extension of the drills by saying the United States and South Korea made an “irrevocable and awful mistake”. Additionally, a nuclear demonstration could be in the works as a test of President Yoon Suk-yeol’s resolve and diplomatic skills. However, the prospects of North Korea attacking the South, Japan, or the United States are low. The Kim family excels in self-preservation. Their power means everything to them and Kim Jong-un is not a stupid man. He realizes that he will lose a war against a combined South Korea-United States force, nukes or not.
At this time we have no concrete proof of the country supplying Russia with ammunition or weapons. If that proof ever does surface, it will probably be the result of Ukrainian forces capturing a Russian artillery position. There have also been rumors of North Korea sending laborers into occupied Ukrainian lands to rebuild; but those are just rumors at this point. Though it should be noted that if the United States continues with its shift to the Indo-Pacific region, North Korea will need all the friends it can get. As a neighboring Pacific power, Russia can be a valuable friend.
Food will always be an issue in the country as long as the Kim family is in power. The sad reality is that millions will continue to starve for the foreseeable future. “The Hermit Kingdom” will remain the best example to showcase the failures of Marxist thought.